Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Pieniny

Back from a nearly week-long foray into the Polish mountains, first non-business trip far beyond Warsaw since November 2024. Given my health-related tribulations, I feared how my lumbar spine and other vulnerable parts of body would endure the strain, but to my surprise, they got on well with it, much better with work-related sitting several hours a day. Over five days I cycled 120 kilometres and hiked 50 kilometres, with elevation gain of almost 3,000 metres in total, a quite something.

On the first day I took my new bike for a first ride longer than 50 kilometres. Velo Czorsztyn, a cycling trail around Jezioro Czorsztyńskie, at times is challenging, as one needs to cycle uphill. The section on the northern shore of the lake is most picturesque and flattest. All in all, one-third of the route is enchanting, the remaining kilometres are to be covered to reach the enjoyable spots.

On the second day I drove to Nowy Targ, to climb Turbacz, the highest peak in Gorce. The ascent involved change in altitude of some 650 metres and took me a bit more than two hours. I hiked with hiking sticks, which is an absolute game-changer. My arms were a bit sore after the hikes, but splitting the body load into four limbs brings a tremendous relief to the lumbar spine. The view from the top of Gorce turned out to be impressive, yet my expectations had been inflated by those claiming panorama of Tatry is break taking. It has not taken my breath away.

On the third day I took a break from major strain, drove to Nowy Targ and took a train to Zakopane, a town I had, shame to admit, never visited before. I considered getting there by public transport only, yet in provincial Poland combining two connections is a risky exercise. But even finding trains is a bit of an exercise, as Google shows you services you can choose from, but does not divert you to specific railway operator. As a result I got there by Luxtorpeda fast train operated by Koleje Małopolskie (PLN 7.20 for a single ticket) and returned by Polregio service (same ticket price). In the very town I have not understood what makes it a tourist hangout. Unless somebody explores Tatry mountains, there are very few reasons to spend holidays there.

On the fourth day the bike came into more intensive use, although the Velo Dunajec trail was shorter and easier than Velo Czorsztyn. The route runs also in a wilder area and is far more scenic, especially on bright, sunny days in warm part of the year when greenery is lush.

On the fifth day I did not have to get anywhere to start out a hike, as my lodgings was next to a tourist trail. I climbed to conquer Trzy Korony and Sokolica – two highest peaks in Pieniny. Although the hike was not long – less than 15 kilometres in total, it involved elevation gain of almost 900 metres, at times with steep ascents. Hot and humid air made this trip most tiresome of all.

After the recent election some have posited not to visit regions where Mr Nawrocki won. I am not into such forms of punishment. In Krościenko nad Dunajcem where I had an accommodation the newly elected president received 69% of votes in the run-off, while in nearby Szczawnica only 55%. I would hazard a guess by merely looking at locals around and on standard of housing, one could guess (with a margin error of some 10 percentage points) whether the local community was in favour of Mr Trzaskowski or of Mr Nawrocki. 

Worth also mentioning provincial Poland follows a different clock than large cities. On June evenings streets of Warsaw are full of people. The market square (note the excess concreted over area) in Krościenko nad Dunajcem at 8:34 p.m. was empty.

The foray was the first long-distance trip for my Skoda Octavia since November 2024. I strived to drive as economically as possible, however conditions (rain on my way to Pieniny, aircon on my way back, hilly landscapes along the way, traffic jams near Kraków) were not conducive. I made it there and back without filling up and the “low fuel” gauge went on after 967 kilometres. The car computer is accurate with respect to actual appetite for petrol. I am quite satisfied with it. In flat terrain, drier and cooler weather and lower speed (I drove 105 kmph on expressway) the engine consumption could drop even below 4 litres per 100 kilometres.

Not the outcome I desired

My scepticism expressed in the recent post harshly contrasted with a pre-mature victory claim made by Mr Trzaskowski. I went to sleep, realising the ultimate vote count would show a tiny gap between the contenders’ scores. I woke up at 3:00 a.m., peeked at the mobile phone to find foul language in messages and realised things were not going right.

Just like over 10 million of my compatriots, over the next days I was shaking off the shock. Most of us were aware the risk of Mr Trzaskowski’s defeat was high, but hoping for the best prevailed over fearing the worst. We need to go through a sense of mourning and learn to live with the choice made under rules of democracy. President in Poland has little power, his biggest tool is the right to veto laws submitted by a government. This partly explains why the election result reflected mandate of the coalitional government to pursue certain policies.

Given the cumulation of mistakes made in the campaign and clumsiness of the current government, with hindsight it turns out Mr Trzaskowski did not deserve a victory. Taking into account all circumstances, it appears the 49.11% score is pretty good. It stands for a percentage of Poles who do not want their homeland to be arranged by Mr Nawrocki, Mr Kaczyński, Mr Mentzen, Mr Braun and the likes.

The defeat should give food for thought also to ordinary people, educated, affluent, living in large cities. We live in a bubble, we know nothing about provincial Poland and its inhabitants, we are not capable of reaching out for them.

The world has begun to move too fast. Those who do not catch up with it and feel lost, lean towards the far-right parties, which do not distinguish between several shades of grey. They paint a black-or-white picture, much easier to grasp and more convincing to those who got lost. Besides, the right-wing have mastered the art of using social media to spread information and target audience with straightforward messages, often containing disinformation. In a world of people addicted to short films and not taking trouble to verify information they receive, the far-right have gotten the edge over centrist and mild leftist groupings. Poland is hence not a lonely island, with Trump’s victory in the USA being the best evidence for it. Democrats keep licking wounds after his victory, as despite their quite decent, but bland 4-year rule, ordinary people have turned their backs on them.

Over 10.2 million votes for Mr Trzaskowski, just under 370 thousand fewer than Mr Nawrocki scored, ought to bear a testimony of a voice of modern, tolerant and pro-European Poland, a voice of stalwart objection to Poland of right-wing politicians’ dreams. We need to stand up for values we cherish and must not be passive if evil is done.

Off for holidays to the mountains soon, the next post in two weeks. 

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.