Politics, Economy, Society

Big-freeze drive

2012-02-11T15:25:00.002+01:00

A sudden attack of winter is probably the best incentive for some people to tidy up their garages and find there enough room to park their vehicles. The rest, who don’t have garages, use their garages as lumber-rooms or have too small garages to keep their cars, have their vehicles put to the test by the cold weather. Below is a coverage of how my car, almost nine-year-old Renault Megane (runs on petrol), kept for the first winter outside a garage, has borne up the recent big freeze.

Friday, 27 January 2012
06:50 / -13C
Engine starts obediently, something near the clutch squeaks when I pull out or change gears. The unpleasant noise ceases when engine warms up.
17:50 / -11C
Fires up like a dream, oil in the gearbox is a bit thick.

Saturday, 28 January 2012
Night-time low: -13C
08:20 / -12C
Engine starts without enthusiasm, but also without hesitation, then it warms up and defrosts windscreen and rear screen while I scrape the hard rime off side windows. Clutch again is a bit frozen up.
08:50 / -12C
Fires up like a dream, off for a 12 kilometres journey, everything warms up and runs very smoothly.
10:45 / -10C
At the car park outside my grandparents’ block I spot a guy starting his Skoda Octavia with diesel engine. The owner has a rough ride, the third attempt is successful. My engine hasn’t run cold during an hour-long sitting.
14:10 / -8C
While on my walk I hear two other cars wheezing… Note temperature hasn’t dropped below –15C and problems have begun for many carefree drivers.
17:15 / -10C
No sign of six hours of sitting, cranks up like in summer…
21:15 / -12C
Again exemplary start, later the car left for a cold night and morning…

Sunday, 29 January 2012
Night-time low: -14C
09:50 / -13C
Just like yesterday, everything works properly. No sign of winter on car’s bodywork, so after a minute of heating the engine up I set off to Media Markt Okęcie. I cover altogether 40 kilometres, therein first 7 before the engine reaches its working temperature. A longer run at the steady speed with radio and heating turned off does good to the battery.
11:30 / -10C
And now the vehicle left for 19 hours of sitting, including twelve hours in double-digit frost, expected to hit even –18C.

Monday, 30 January 2012
Night-time low: -16C
06:35 / -16C
Okay, this might be boring, the car cranks up obediently. My colleagues say there’s nothing to be excited about, each well-maintained, petrol-fuelled car, with properly charged battery, will start without problems in temperature above –30C. I somehow don’t feel like checking it, but nothing indicates it could pack up…
18:20 / -12C
Fires up as if it was summer, unfortunately the bottom part of windscreen froze over inside and the car defrost itself very slowly. OK, as long as it doesn’t impede driving…

Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Night-time low: -17C
06:40 / -17C
No changes since yesterday. It should keep running well as long as it’s driven every day, albeit it has to be said exposure to frost is not what vehicles like the most. Natural selection on the roads – I put down lighter traffic to the fact some cars failed the cold weather test
17:45 / -13C
Engine warms up quite quickly – wondering why…

Wednesday, 1 February 2012
Night-time low: -20C
06:35 / -20C
It has to be said for over 8 years in my family Megane had never been used in temperature lower than –19C.
Another good start and another rough ride with frosty windows. Hard rime is very hard to scrape, plus fingers, even in gloves are freezing. The traffic is sparse and 90% of cars on the road have driven out of garages (no sign of sitting in the cold), so I go by car to the office…
17:50 / -15C
The car sat for 10 hours in the sun and an unpleasant surprise inside – the windscreen has frozen over… inside. It’s not totally frozen, so I pull out and begin the crawl in a traffic jam towards Plac Zawiszy (less than one kilometre out of my 18 kilometre journey and covering it takes 15 minutes (vs. 45 minutes for remaining 17 kilometres), by the time I reach it, the car defrosts itself. I was a bit stressed out by goings-on at work and frozen screen and didn’t make out whether the engine was hesitant to start…

Thursday, 2 February 2012
Night-time low: -22C
06:40 / -22C
Oil in the gearbox is very thick, but the battery is doing a great job. Kicks in immediately despite harsh frost. Number of cars on the roads that have stayed the night in the harsh frost is lower than yesterday. Warsaw is full of cars left where they packed up.
17:05 / -18C
I leave the office at time and again find the windscreen frozen inside, but the layer of frost is not as thick as yesterday. After warming the engine up for half a minute I pull out, all frozen elements creak, windscreen is being defrosted while moving in a snarled-up traffic. A very frosty night ahead!

Friday, 3 February 2012
Night-time low: -24C
06:35 / -24C
Minus twenty four – no such word as “fun”. I barely can turn the gear from rear to neutral, then press the start button, hear a short wheezing and the engine cranks up!

Then ensues a long scrape during which my fingers are in a state near frostbite. Than it all looks pretty surreal. Radiation fog lingers, roads are swathed in clouds of fumes from engines of sparse cars. This looks like an icy hell, but Megane bravely carries me to work. Traffic is holiday-time-like – very light. Most cars sitting outside have refused to start… Mine works, but LCD displays go bonkers, when I try to check if the radio works, I learn it doesn’t, the computer indicates current consumption of petrol on cold engine is 40 litres per 100 kilometres…
17:15 / -17C
Well, not a surprise that it starts, but I wonder where’s the boundary of the machinery (battery, starter, engine, oil…). Would it start at –30C?

Saturday, 4 February 2012
Night-time low: -22C
08:40 / -21C
Oil is thicker than yesterday, or maybe it just seems to be just because the car has been sitting for two hours longer. Sun melts some of the frost, so scraping takes shorter and I manage to pull out faster. Two first kilometres are disastrous… I’ve had enough of grappling with barely movable gear lever…
09:30 / -20C
Ok, now it starts briskly… At my father’s insistence I turn the radio on; it seems to work when it’s above –20C outside… When I arrive at my grandparents I see another comedy titled “Using wires to start a car”.
10:40 / -19C
Off to home, engine within an hour of sitting has not run cold, then the car is left for some 22 hours of sitting in the cold.

Sunday, 5 February 2012
Night-time low: -19C
11:00 / -15C
The car sat for 24 hours in temperature below –15C and kicks in without hesitation. There’s no frost on windows and I can easily set it in motion without warming the engine up. Oil in the gearbox is not very thick. To the petrol station and then for a 10-kilometre ride to charge up the battery. If the worst is over and the car withstood the nadir of cold snap, it doesn’t mean precautions don’t have to be taken.

Monday, 6 February 2012
Night-time low: -20C
06:40 / -20C
Another brisk start after 20 hours of sitting in the frost. The car’s got used to the frost, but it only puts up with low temperatures. I’m sick of thick oil in the gearbox and several noises it gives off before it warms up.
17:45 / -15C
Traffic on ul. Puławska is oddly sparse. Longing for single-digit frost…

Tuesday, 7 February 2012
Night-time low: -14C
06:45 / -13C
Dammit, oil in the gearbox is not really thick, only falling snow slightly impedes driving
17:55 / -10C
Hey, I haven’t seen such a brisk cold start for a week. We’re returning to normal driving!

Wednesday, 8 February 2012
Night-time low: -12C
Is there any point in writing???

Until today, each morning was colder, with –19C hitting today. The engine has always cranked up impeccably. But today I again saw some cars whose owners made the most of the weekend to start them with wires and electric current borrowed from another vehicle.

So why some cars don’t cause their owners any troubles, while other pack up. My take on the issue is that not the car, but its owner (or user) is to blame… Maybe the content below is belated, but I prepared some advice for carefree drivers…

1. If your car runs on petrol, you’re some 10 degrees ahead. Diesel engines need more energy from the battery to be started, but beware – this doesn’t exempt you from taking care of your vehicle.

2. Good battery is a crucial when temperatures drop really low – check it before winter comes, if necessary charge it up or buy a new one. Prudent drivers do it in the autumn (I changed the battery in November), carefree wrangle with a dead one while standing in double-digit frost.

3. Other devices must work properly – nothing’s going to help your good battery, if alternator doesn’t charge it properly, motor starter is worn-down, ignition and injection systems are faulty, or fuel is tainted with water. When it’s below minus twenty any weaker link in the chain might immobilise your car…

4. Avoid short runs and starting the engine many times a day – during short trips shortage of energy used to start the engine is not replenished by alternator. Also crawling in traffic jams doesn’t do good as engine revolutions are low and little energy is produced and goes to battery.

5. Drive every day even if you don’t have to – the big freeze set me back some extra 30 zlotys spent on petrol – on account of driving longer distance directly to work (which in fact is a waste of money, but to my surprise not time!) and driving on one Sunday when I didn’t need to, but it spared me potential troubles. A well-maintained car will sit overnight in –25C and start, but adding to it one more day and a second night might be a risky step.

6. Hold back from using energy-consuming devices – radio and CD are off, heating is not turned up, windscreen and rear-screen heating are in use only when necessary. Energy produced by the alternator should charge the battery (and it’s the last receiver of energy, so it receives only the surplus of the produced electricity), whose capacity in –20C is by some 50% lower and which needs to give more energy to crank up an iced engine…

The frosty period is coming to an end – this means denser traffic…

A year after the transition

2012-02-05T15:16:00.000+01:00

There are moments when it never hurts to look back on one’s old thoughts and review their accuracy with hindsight. A year ago I, a half-baked graduate, just in the eve of starting my first permanent job, set out to summarise ups and downs of leaving university and stepping into the corporate world. Time to quote my thoughts from February 2011 and confront them with my views today.

I WILL MISS:

1. Day-to-day contact with peers. Truth be told my colleagues will be a bit or much older than me. From my past experience I know I can get along with older colleagues very well, but they are a sort of a different breed, they have different problems, pastime activities, interests, priorities in life, usually they have a different point of view because they have their own families and obligations it entails.

I somehow miss it less than I expected. I’ve always found it easy to get along with older people and so I do at work, but there’s a noticeable gap between us – most of them have spouses and children, hence have different duties and problems. I haven’t experienced their daily bread, they long for carefree period of youth in which I, in their opinion, still am.

2. Clever, awe-inspiring lecturers, just to name a few:
dr Bogusław Czarny, who taught me basic micro- and macroeconomics, inspired to think independently, form my own opinions and who stressed the importance of the overriding rule in economics, that an assertion is true when it cannot be disproved, not when it can be proved,
prof. Marek Garbicz, for his breathtaking lectures, sense of humour and open mind,
prof. Maria Podgórska, for her patience, consistency and the fact she did not confine just to teach econometrics and mathematics in finance and insurance, but also wanted to instil in us integrity and made us aware how important in life it was,
mgr Sławomira Rajkowska, my best German teacher ever, unfortunately she stood in for our lecturer just for one term, but the progress I made (without much effort) was unbelievable. Had my Deutsch been that good today...
mgr Aneta Piwko, my best English teacher ever. If all teachers had such excellent command of English, passion and drive to teach, Germans would not stack up against Poles in terms of English skills.
prof. Sławiński... Here words are very unnecessary. Who experienced the pleasure of attending his lectures knows what I mean. The rest may only regret.
dr Piotr Mielus, the supervisor of my MA thesis and an outstanding practitioner.

True, but on the other hand, I met several awe-inspiring people where I work, and, like at SGH, many mediocre individuals (who are in a minority). I should kick myself for not attending open lectures at my school, or not visiting some of my favourite scholars during their office hours. Yet still there time to make up…

3. Casual clothes. From next week will fit for weekends, holidays and cult dress-down Fridays. I actually like formal outfits so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Well, I’m still at the age, when I don’t mind wearing a suit and tie (business casual dress code Mon – Thu), but dress code policy is much more flexible than I expected – if I don’t have any important meeting there’s no reason why I couldn’t wear jeans, casual shirt, or a jumper if I feel like.

4. Commuting in non-peak hours. Lovely it was to get from or to Warsaw within fifty minutes in the middle of the day or in the evening when streets were already unclogged. My new recipe for avoiding traffic jams will be trains, so the journey between home and the office should take around an hour.

In July I swapped trains for a car, since then I’ve used public transport within the boundaries of Warsaw only (P&R to work and back + getting about town). I depart for work in early rush hours when traffic is snarled-up, but not stationary. I return to P&R in late rush-hours or after it. Carrying one’s arse in a vehicle is convenient, but expensive…

5. Job fairs, event, meeting famous people who visited SGH and other events. First two and a half years abounded in such events. Later the crisis came, companies cut their promotion budgets and I ran out of disposable pens.

At work there are different events during which I can pick up other gadgets. And I slightly miss these small talks with representatives of employers on potential internships. These days internships are beyond the scope of my career interests and provided no big wipe-out (i.e. lay-offs) strikes out of the blue, I should hold down the job.

6. Privileges. Not that soon. I will pick up my diploma some three months after the final MA exam, so I until then will I make the most of my ticket concession and other measurable benefits of being a student. The new world will compensate me for this by giving perks.

I lost my privileges on the last day of June 2011. From then I’ve had to pay the full fare for my travelcard, but on the other hard I have a health-care package, swimming pool entry card and reimbursement of glasses expenses.

7. Unfettered speculation on stock exchange. From now I will not be able to do a real-time trading plus I will have several trading restrictions. This does not mean I will pull back from the stock market at all; the speculator will become a mid-term investor.

I have to keep away from some stocks and I’m obliged to submit weekly report on my trading activity. These days all those limitations don’t hurt me at all, I don’t understand where and why markets are heading, so I trade very cautiously, or not trade at all.

I WILL NOT MISS:

1. The overwhelming mess, bad communication between authorities and students and general disinformation.

Replace “authorities” with “superiors” and “students” with “subordinates”, and the sentence stays true!

2. Ignorance and laziness of lecturers. I do not even wish to comment. The list of admired lecturers was short. The list of big let-downs from the whole course of my studies would be much longer...

The problem of ignorance is far less appalling, actually people there are well-educated and reservations concerning their expertise are rather sparse. Plus they are ready to lend a helping hand and share their experience, if I’m in need.

3. Workings of the student office (dziekanat), its surly personnel, quaint decisions (deleting completed courses from track record of studies, informing me about my Bachelor's exam the day before in the evening)...

Thank God I’ve finished school! But a private corporation with head office in the fatherland of capitalism has its own set of absurdities, equally enervating.

4. To boot bad organisation, doing everything at eleventh hour...

This has not sunk into oblivion, just manifests itself in a different way. Closing deal at eleventh hour is not infrequent, being assigned tasks with tight deadlines is not uncommon, but it’s typical for the corporate world and at least if the job is done correctly, it’s appreciated.

5. Appalling use of English, which was ridiculed on this blog repeatedly.

At the bank virtually everyone uses English and everyone does it as good as they can, still too often with putting too little emphasis on quality. People from London or from the US have got accustomed to us mangling English. I’ve been reproved a few times for using too difficult (for native speakers) vocabulary, but no one’s ever told me off for polishing up a piece written in not-up-to-the-standard English.

6. Broken down central heating when outside it was -15C or unopenable windows and lack of curtains or blinds when outside temperature hit +30C

It’s been kind of dreadfully cold over the last week and temperature in my office was around +19C, barely above the threshold of +18C, allowing employees to refuse to work. But aircon was doing well in summer.

7. Lectures at 19:00 for day-time students (prevalent, alas).

There were a few incidences of working later than until 7 p.m. over that year, with record-late knock-off at quarter to nine in the evening, but if you think anyone at the top cares that it’s after 5 p.m. and it should be your private time, you’re wrong.

Immersing in the corporate world will not only mean I will be self-supporting, but also will bring new challenges and real learning opportunities. In the coming months I expect to work harder and learn more than within four and a half years of my studies.

Here I wasn’t wrong.

Hitherto I have not observed any symptoms of depresja magisterska, (graduates afflicted with this malady are down in the dumps because the carefree period of studies is drawing to a close and they are in for forty years of work), but the worst might be still to come.

There have been ups and downs over that year, but all in all I don’t miss school. Somewhere deep down I feel the clock is ticking, years are passing by (about to turn 25 in ten months) and self-fulfilment should lie above all outside work, if for somebody it also lies within it, they must be very happy.

Earnings

2012-01-29T17:52:00.000+01:00

On Wednesday my manager, while doing a research in the Internet (managers don’t surf the web at work, they are always focused on their duties) ran across an article from Warsaw pages of Gazeta Wyborcza about wages of SGH graduates… An interesting piece, particularly if you bear in mind how opaque the Polish labour market is...

The very title, literally “Graduates of Warsaw School of Economics, [earn] even eight thousand zlotys after tax, just upon graduation” would suit better a tabloid, as it includes more than a tinge of manipulation. The piece is a summary of a survey conducted among recent graduates of my university, participation to it was voluntary and answers were given totally anonymously. The sample numbered, if my memory serves me right, 837 graduates who were divided into three groups, according to period of time elapsed since their graduation, i.e. those who had graduated less than six months ago, those who had finished their studies more than a half, but less than three years ago, and those with longer post-graduation career.

The reactions the title provoked in my team, categorise it to gullet-press style. “How come?”, “How bold”, “Insolence” – my manager and head of my department, both graduates of SGH remember how much they earned as freshmen and know how high my salary is and wondered who would be eager to pay some 12,000 PLN before tax to a grown-out student. While cries of outrage died down, I induced everyone to read the article over and than return to the discussion. As it turns out, only 7.6 percent of the surveyed declared they earned more than 8,500 PLN net per month, but around 25% of the respondents asserted their monthly salary was between 2,500 and 3,500 PLN and another one-fourth said they earned from 3,500 to 4,500 PLN. No other figures were cited, so one can’t infer how numerous was the low-paid group (monthly wages below 2,500 PLN) and how many were paid between 4,500 and 7,500 PLN.

I’m leaning towards fault-finding in my attitude towards the article. The sample was rather small, bearing in mind that around 2,000 students graduate from SGH each year (I have to admit I also didn’t take the trouble to accept the invitation to fill in the questionnaire), so there were only over 60 graduates with relatively high earnings, in the group of 0.5 – 3 years after graduation (headcount of ca. 6,000). Hang on, if the survey was anonymous, everyone could write whatever they wanted and inflate their earnings, this affects reliability of such research. The puzzling thing is also that I’m a registered user of SGH career centre and I didn’t find any report on their pages. If I’m not authorised to view it, how have journalists of GW come into it? Doesn’t it cast any doubts on reliability?

There are some outstanding graduates of my school, I know some who’ve managed to climb many steps on the ladders of their careers very fast. In each population there is a fraction of very gifted people, if they are interested in economics, business, finance, etc., many of them are destined to get in to SGH, so the very group of SGH graduates does not reflect an overall situation of graduates of all universities on the Polish labour market. If we assume we agree that free market properly estimates the price that a young, outstanding employee deserves to be paid, or how much they have to be paid to fend off job offers from the competition, we shouldn’t find those earnings outrageous. Compare this to bonuses of CEOs of British banks (there’s a lot of hue and cry about this in the UK these days) and 8,500 zeds per month sound like little peanuts. And last but not least, many of those well-paid rat-racers spend more than 12 hours a day in their offices over the working week, work over weekends and grow rich quickly at the expense of their personal lives. Be aware there’s always a price to pay…

Much more uplifting is the news that some 50% of SGH graduates earn between 2,500 and 4,500 PLN and this is where I fall as well. Deep down I feel the bracket sets floor and cap for a decent salary for a graduate with considerably short experience… A proper career and earnings path should start at a rather low level and have a strong upside potential left for an employee, if they prove they deserve to move up, they should be given a pay rise.

This is what seems proper to me, but in practise appetite comes with eating. As I was about to start my current job a year ago, I thought my salary was very competitive; today I find it only very decent, but from what I discerned, where I work commitment is appreciated – so I stay patient… Plus I have to add I’m in a different situation than my peers who’ve come to Warsaw to study and settled down here for good. I don’t have to pay rent for a flat, actually my expenses are still quite low and having the luxury of owning and using a car, I can still put aside 50% - 60% of my salary. No room for discontent for sure, but well, appetite comes with eating, and the more you eat, the more bloated your belly gets…

Margin Call - film review

2012-01-22T16:14:00.000+01:00

Usually the word “crisis” puts you in mind unpleasant associations of jobless people, bankrupting companies, rampant impoverishment and other miseries. But if you look at how the recent meltdown influenced contemporary culture, you can notice the upsides of it. Before 2008 there had been few and far between books or films depicting the sleazy world of disgustingly well-heeled bankers. Scandals surrounding misconduct of financial industry that broke out in 2008 not only have shed light on workings of the only industry when one’s legally obtained earnings looked like telephone numbers, but also turned out to be an excellent inspiration for artists willing set their works in the murky world of investment banking.

From this blog you should remember reviews of Let’s make money (film), Cityboy (book) and Inside job (film). Each of the abovementioned works can be catogorised to a bit different genre, each has some features of a documentary, unlike Margin Call, a new film which had its premiere on 26 December 2011. “Margin Call”, in Poland translated as “Greed” (what’s the Polish for margin call?), has gone down well with film critics and cinemagoers and I must say the accolades are well-deserved.

It can be easily inferred that the plot is set (PL: osadzona) in mid-2008, in an investment bank with a head office in NYC, which has a huge portfolio of toxic mortgage-backed securities whose value, if the worst-case scenario materialises, will drop to zero, sending the highly leveraged bank under water. Makers of the film avow any semblances between actual persons and events are unintended and if someone happens to discern them, they are only coincidental. But if the stricken bank’s CEO’s surname is Tuld, similarities are evident… But don’t dare to think the film tells the story of Lehman’s collapse…

“Margin Call” repeats a few truths that have been said about the banking industry.

1. Guys who work in risk management are not economists but quants – rocket scientists, physicians, engineers, mathematicians. They have little notion about non-quantitative factors that influence workings of financial markets and are behind the laws of economics. Probably many of those individuals, attracted by sky-high salaries, have not been the right men in the right places. Eric, one of the characters fired out of the blue at the beginning of the film, at the end tells a story of a bridge he had designed and overseen the construction of some 22 years earlier. The power of his brain is underlined by quick mental calculations on numbers hitting up to nine digits. You can find this funny that the guy can multiply millions without using a calculator, but the purport of the scene, for me the principal one in the whole film, is that Eric recalls making something tangible that still serves people, in contrast to what financial engineers have contrived. Real engineers build, while financial engineers destroy?

2. Thursday evening parties in strip-clubs are an indispensable part of the male-dominated industry.

3. Earnings are shocking and even the old rule that one shouldn’t earn more than $ 100,000 over the first year has long been waived.

The above are typical for Anglo-Saxon investment banking, so is there anything common with what you can come across while working at a bank in Poland? The film begins with a scene showing how people are laid off out of the blue in the ruthless industry. It would be fool to describe it, just watch and I hope you will get the point. I witnessed it in Poland and… it is done in exactly the same way…

The film, however, could do with some enhancements. Firstly, it is not comprehensible for laymen. If you’re not familiar with the workings of the financial industry, your chances to find out what is going on, how and why, are grossly limited. Secondly, the film is drawn-out – the same story could have been squeezed into a 20 minutes shorter film, although I have to admit shots of New York on a September night are memorable. Thirdly, the lacklustre ending. This is my second letdown this year (first was when I was finishing reading “Money to burn”) and sadly I must say “Margin Call” lacks a head-splitting ending. The bank shown in the film does not end up like Lehman Brothers. Its survival strategy is to get rid of toxic assets, incur huge losses and foist worthless securities upon clients and other banks. Stinky shit is being spilled over the whole financial system, while the culprit stays afloat. Few have remorse, the unprincipled chaps are proud of their well-done job.

The film again reminded me I should be grateful I was born and live in Poland, not in the United States. May my country never stoop so low…

Taking chances

2012-01-15T14:48:00.000+01:00

I was a first-year student, when, during a class in basic microeconomics, I first encountered the topic of risk from economic perspective.

Have you even tried to put in words what actually risk is?

In economics and finance, one has to distinguish between risk and uncertainty. The former must be measurable, the latter is not quantifiable. If the risk is measurable, it should be possible to estimate probability that a specific scenario materialises. In life we usually face uncertainty – hardly ever it is possible to make an educated guess on how probable it is that a choice we are making will prove right.

Those who have even learnt business English should have come across several verbs that go together with the noun ‘risk’. You can: accept, analyse, avoid, estimate, hedge, manage, measure, minimise, mitigate, quantify, run, take, tolerate, understand a risk; share it and divide it. Something can carry or pose a risk, something can be put at risk. ‘Risk’ as a verb and adjective ‘risky’ might come in useful quite frequently.

Economic theory distinguishes between pure and speculative risk. In the case of the former you might lose, or not, but you cannot win. Pure risk can be transferred to another party, willing to take such risk, this happens when you buy an insurance policy. In the case of the latter there might be one more outcome – you might also win. Modern financial engineering has devised many tools used to manage risks, transfer them between entities and “reliably” quantify it. When misused, those tool can result in worldwide financial meltdowns…

Economists have come up with a concept that different people have different tolerance of risk. Some are eager to take it, some avoid it, some are indifferent to it. As scholars claim, most individuals prefer not to take risks and make do with certainty equivalents. Most of us would rather take out an insurance, pay a fixed premium and reduce our exposure to a specific risk, many people do not fancy investing their money on volatile stock exchange and put them into bank deposits, on which they can earn lower, but “safe” income.

But what determines an attitude to risk a specific person has? Genes? Upbringing? Entourage? Education and awareness? Experience gained in life? Job and challenges it poses?

Why in different realms of life people have a totally different tolerance of risk? Some people drive like lunatics and risk their and other people’s lives but would never put their savings on the stock exchange. Others are not afraid to run up debts in form of mortgage loans for decades, but avoid taking professional decisions that entail responsibility.

Does eagerness to take risks influence the job one should take up? What should be the profile of an employee who works, like me, in risk management? (Incidentally, I recently heard in the risk division there’s no place for people with below-average IQ!) Surely they should have competence to assess and analyse risk, but how about the tolerance of various types of risks their employer would be exposed to, depending on their decisions? Of course, they are paid for taking care of someone else’s business, so private preferences should not matter at all. Once I triggered peals of laughter at work when I commented on potential highly speculative financing for a junk public company: “I wouldn’t put the bank’s money at such risk as my own”.

Financial institutions have their risk managers (who should be well paid ;-)), but human beings should be able to cope with uncertainty in everyday lives. Almost every time we take an important decision, the outcome is a mystery. Choice of path of education – whether you choose the right studies might impinge on your future self-fulfilment. Choice of a spouse – will influence your happiness. Both aforementioned decisions will also affect your financial standing, as well as the choice of career path.

Such decisions surely involve a bit of stress, as each even-tempered person should think twice, weigh in pros and cons, analyse what can go wrong. This can result in paralysis by analysis, but done prudently might help avoid mistakes, which in life are inescapable anyway. When choosing to study at SGH, I was not sure if this would be good for many; with time fortuitous decision proved right. When I got an internship in credit risk department I was not sure whether I would find my way there, but soon settled down very quickly and well there. Again a leap into the dark proved a good decision. I feel when one day I’ll pop the question I will have doubts whether this woman would really be the one I want to spend the rest of my day with.

It is probably the saddest point of this post. These days nothing lasts forever, promises are broken easily and without remorse. Is my observation, that people no longer hold stability as dear as they used to in the past, right? I recently witnessed a marriage breaking up just because one of the spouses found a few years younger, sexually attractive partner. After a few months the new couple have shaken off the short-lived affection and came to a conclusion that together they cannot face everyday hardships and actually they do not fit each other. Guess how one of the spouses, who left the family for a fleeting adventure, the other, cheated-on spouse and their children felt… Now they are back a family and are trying to pick up the pieces of the broken-up marriage and start a new life. But I know how the ex-lover of the spouse feels and oddly enough that person currently appears to be the most hurt, deceived and disillusioned.

For sake of clarity, I do mention the sex of the unfaithful spouse, just not to spread stereotypes – both women and men cheat on their partners… Also for the sake of clarity I am not the aggrieved hero of the story. But there were times when I found flirting with older (in their 20s and 30s) women in relationships exciting (then I have grown out of this silly sort of entertainment). But except for realising those were childish games it occurred to me that if a woman dumps her boyfriend for me, one day she might be capable of doing the same with me for another guy.

There is not just the fear that someone might hurt me, what worries me is that I may inadvertently break a promise given to someone. One day my common sense might tell me to take a path which will give me some stability, but will not be the most preferable, but some time later I might feel the temptation to try my foregone luck. Life is full of wasted chances, but is it worth taking a chance, heedless of consequences?

And you can speak about any risk here? Only uncertainty is left…

Orbanomics

2012-01-08T19:30:00.000+01:00

Liberal media in Poland and across Europe have joyfully relished on the economic decline of Hungary under Victor Orban’s rule. The fellow CEE country does not fare well, despite Mr Obran’s peculiar efforts to tackle the crisis and may face insolvency even sooner than far more stricken Greece.

When examining economic situation of Hungary, biased media often leave out how Hungarian economy was wrecked by eight years of leftist rule, marked by soaring corruption, concealing ever-deteriorating state of public finances and unfettered living beyond means, both on public and private level. In September 2006, confessions of Hungary’s former prime minister leaked to the media and triggered widespread outrage. Things came to a head. While neighbouring economies were booming, Hungary had to implement first austerity programme, aimed at turning public finances around. Retrenchments slowed the economy down, yet the country kept moving ahead. The veritable turmoil sparked off in autumn 2008, when CEE currencies were sold off in the wake of Lehman bankruptcy. The sell-off of Hungarian forint was much more justified than in the case of Polish zloty, as Hungarian economy has already suffered from structural problems. Hungarian central bank immediately jacked up interest rates, hoping that the higher price of money would attract speculative capital. It did not, but as each interest hike, the move stifled the already ailing economy.

The Hungarian economy was particularly severely hit by depreciating HUF, mainly owing to unconstrained mortgage lending in foreign currencies. Millions of Hungarians have found it increasingly difficult to service their mortgage debts. Many borrowers defaulted on their obligations, so banks had to make massive write-offs on bad loans, households had to tighten the belt, cut down on various expenses and keep servicing their debts. As a result, consumption and investments fell, government spending was also curbed. Hungary was the first country that applied for a bail-out from the IMF and EU to bring back financial stability in the country.

Such pitiable was the shape of Hungarian economy taken over by Mr Orban’s party in mid- 2010, after it had won over two-third seats in the parliament, majority allowing to pass almost any law they wanted, including entitlement to change constitution. Mr Orban, in over year and a half managed to make extensive use of power he had been entrusted. He has had many successful attempts to tweak with scope of civic liberties, including free speech, economic order has also been revamped. The most controversial economic changes were:

1) Nationalisation of assets held by pension funds and using it to reduce public debt. As an unfaltering critic of obligatory participation to private-run pension funds, I could agree this was a good move. But look at the way it has been done. Citizens were given the choice – either to transfer “their” savings into the state-run system, or to pay pension contributions to both the state and to private-run funds and retain “their” savings in the private-run system, but being deprived of the right to pension benefit paid by the state. Fair deal? Plus note pension funds were scrapped not because they had been a scam, but only to inject cash the state budget had been running out of.

2) Freezing CHF/HUF rate at which distressed debtors repaid their CHF-denominated mortgages. In the first variant the rate was to be fixed for a few years, the government would pay the difference between the fixed rate and market rate, and debtors would repay the difference after a few years. In the second variant, losses were covered by banks which had granted loans. This reminds of the option quarrel, when some politicians also tried to nullify legally binding contracts.

3) Taxation reform, consisting in replacing two PIT rates of 17% and 32% by a flat tax of 16% - the measure did not revive the economy, but, predictably, brought down budget revenues. Guess who benefited the most… From 1 January 2012 key VAT rate was raised from 25% to 27%. Guess who lost the most…

4) Tampering with central bank’s independence, allowing political influence on the decisions taken by hitherto independent body and making it possible for the government to tap its monetary reserves to pay government debt in foreign currencies.

Well, until now the uncanny experiments have not dragged the Hungarian economy out of the recession. Over the last month three main rating agencies have downgraded Hungary’s sovereign rating to junk status, this should not be put down only to high debt-toGDP ratio of approximately 80%. The main reason for the downgrade was the unpredictability of Hungarian decision-makers. As the ex-member of Polish monetary policy council said yesterday, these are not only several ratios, determining a country’s capacity to service debt, that set debt service costs, the key driver of financing costs is credibility and Hungarian government completely lacks it. No wonder it has to pay over 10% for its 10Y bonds, yet it puts a bold face and declares readiness to turn down potential financial aid from the IMF and the EU, condition on pulling back from curbing central bank’s independence.

No one should draw pleasure from watching our ill-run neighbour going under (unless you are a currency speculator). But Hungarian troubles should teach us a lesson. Remember the evening of 9 October 2011 when Jarosław Kaczyński expressed his hopes that one day there would be Budapest in Warsaw? Not letting it happen does not simply mean preventing Mr Kaczyński from winning majority in the parliament. If we do not want Poland to follow the path of Hungary we have to prevent it from plunging into such economic and political downfall. To some extent, it is rather improbable that things in Poland might with take a dire shape. Political class is not as corrupt as it was in Hungary, we have never lived beyond our means to the extent Hungarians did, burden of mortgage debts is not too heavy to carry for Poles, public finances are in a better shape, but... Do we know if the ruling politicians tell us the truth about public finances? I think Mr Rostowski runs our finances quite prudently, but when I listen to him, I am not convinced he tells the whole truth. It is not inconceivable that, when in distress, Polish central bank might buy up Polish government bonds, which would be a violation of constitution and would be actual act of printing money – if this happens, expect a condemnation on PES.

Whatever future holds for Hungary and for Poland, I hope Hungarians and other nations draw conclusions from the current economic ailments of the former country. Whenever we assess Mr Orban, we must not forget about the context in which he gained power. At least we cannot accuse him of inactivity. He does try to overcome the crisis. A drowning man will catch a straw, so maybe this might be excuse for moves which in my opinion are inexcusable and detrimental for the economy. Time and financial markets will soon prove somebody right.

Financial markets, I say. Very few countries can afford to mess with financial markets. And you can do it only if you do not have to rely on them, i.e. when you do not have to finance your debt by issuing bonds. Mr Orban unfortunately forgot that public debt of his country accounts for 80% of GDP, so he might be fighting a losing battle…

End-year* thoughts

2012-01-01T15:32:00.002+01:00

My last success this year was surviving the idle period between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. I don’t know why, but over five years of my studies it was the most depressing period of the whole year. I’m putting it down to low amount of daylight, imminent exam period and the fact that virtually everything comes into the standstill on those days. In the office we also were ticking over, but somehow being put through this period in the company of colleagues made it much less painful.

On Friday morning I kept refreshing the page showing current EUR/PLN quotation to witness the battle between Polish state, represented by NBP and BGK, and speculators. The former were to sell foreign currencies just before the fixing, the latter were to bet against zloty. The tug-of-war was short, featured with increased volatility and not really fascinating. The government got what it had wanted – public debt to GDP ratio was at ca. 54% - safely below the threshold triggering austerity measures.

Time to look back on my predictions from mid-January and bring myself to account for all the guesses that have turned out to be wide of the mark. Polish central bank’s benchmark rate is indeed 4.50%, in line with my forecasts, but home-owners paying off mortgages denominated in foreign currencies saw their instalments soaring in the summer, rather than slowly decreasing. WIG20 at the end of 2011 fell below 2,150 points, while I predicted 3,200 points. At the end of the day I’m an analyst so the outcome above should not surprise you at all ;-)

Financial markets have become so wobbly, as the situation in real economy has gone, that I will not dare to come up with any predictions for the coming year. I have some scenarios of possible future courses of event, but may they not be disclosed to the public. While I’m holding back, Michael decided to have a stab at it. Come the end of the year and we’ll see if he can rely on his intuition.

Just to recap the year which will has become a history.

In January I thought Polish economy would be thriving in the coming year and I was actually right, only the rest of the world was falling apart since then, the first report on causes of Smolensk crash was unveiled and prompted questions and heated disputes.

In February I took up my first permanent job and began to cast doubt on robustness of Polish economy.

Key issue in March was the pension system reform.

April passed very quickly for me, while the key event in Poland was the first anniversary of Smolensk disaster.

In May Catholics celebrated beatification of John Paul II, and end of days, due on 21 May didn’t happen to come.

In June I had first inklings of coming tsunami on financial markets and graduated from SGH.

July was extraordinarily wet…

In early August politicians in the United States were haggling on what conditions to raise the debt ceiling and despite the assent to raise it, panic took over financial markets, and was exacerbated after S&P downgraded US rating.

September was marked by 10th anniversary of 9/11 attacks.

In October Poles chose that a predictable, but timid and often inactive PO-led government should run Poland for the second term.

In November I realised what the word ‘insecurity’ in the corporate would means (no link and no details) and the first re-sworn-in prime minister delivered his inaugural speech in which he focused on painful programme of healing Poland’s public finances and which brought about a sudden revaluation of stocks of one of the biggest Polish companies.

In December the story of lent 1,000 PLN dragged on and weather was very merciful.

The list of random events of 2011 is patchy and does not cover many issues which you might find important, yet which were not mentioned on the blog and escaped my notice.

Now when 2011 is left behind, try to guess what the future holds. I surmise in 2012:
1) financial markets will stay very volatile. Where exchange rates and stock markets head will depend on performance of real economies (watch out, I’ve just reinvented wheel) and strength of the eurozone,
2) politicians of the eurozone, faced with pressure of unrelenting financial markets will have to get to grips with insolvent, inordinately indebted PIGS and pull the plug on them. Greece will be forced to secede from the eurozone, re-establish drachma and devalue it to regain competitiveness,
3) winter will stay mild, there will be three incidences of proper winter, including one bringing heavy snowfalls and another with temperatures much below –10C at nights. Winter-time low in Warsaw will be –16C.

In 2012 all adverse effects of economic slowdown, that Poland escaped until now, will make themselves really felt. Polish economy will be expanding at slower pace, along with its trade partners who may even face a contraction. Weak zloty should prop up exports, but will also push up prices of imported goods, and thus inflation. Private sector will have to adjust their scale of operations to shrinking demand and many companies will be downsized. Savings will be looked for on cost side and because companies’ influence on prices of inputs is highly limited, payroll expenses will be cut. This will result in a wave of lay-offs, lower or no pay rises and higher unemployment.

Tax-burden-raising programme will hit Poles’ wallets. On 1 January excise tax on diesel fuels hike takes effect. From 1 February sickness benefit contributions paid by employers will be increased by two percentage points. Rising prices of fuels, energy and gas will probably keep reducing Poles discretionary income. This, in conjunction with job insecurity might put to the end gold times of consumer confidence that prevented Polish economy from shrinking in early 2009.

All property market analysts expect another year when prices will be going down, they only vary in determining the scale of decline. The factors that will contribute to lower property prices will be:
1) recommendation SII, issued by Polish Financial Supervision Authority, ordering banks to calculate creditworthiness of borrowers taking mortgages with longer than 25Y maturity as if they were to repay them in 25 years, this might reduce available loan amounts by some 5%,
2) implementation of more restrictive credit risk policies in banks, including virtually scrapping FX lending,
3) supply of properties on primary and secondary markets, much surpassing demand,
4) aforementioned lower discretionary incomes of households who might spend less on debt service,
5) drop in job security which prevents people from buying things they cannot afford to have
6) fading optimism among buyers, far less eager to live for 30 years with ball and chain called mortgage and more often noticing property prices have been exorbitant and hence holding off on buying a property,
7) growing number of young Poles working on “junk” contracts rather than having a permanent job, who, without stable source of income, are deemed to be not creditworthy for banks.

So everyone who has taken it for granted investments in properties are the quick and safe way to grow reach, please prepare for a rude awakening. Prices have already fallen by some 25% from peak noted in 2008 and are set to drop by some 10%, before they level off, at best. If four ago you pointed out that if in London for an average one can buy 0.35 sqm of a flat, the ratio should be the same in Warsaw, just keep your head down. Market will strike a health balance if the monthly-wage / sqm price ratio hits some 0.75.

I look at people who run up huge debts in CHF in 2007 or 2008 to buy tiny flats and I’m sorry for them. They’re carrying a burden disproportionate to what they “own”. There was no fully-fledged property bubble in Poland, but what was witnessed from early 2006 to mid-2008 had many features of a typical bubble.

I have already got the idea of taking out a mortgage out of my head. I don’t feel secure in terms of employment. I realise 2012 will be a year of ruthless cuts in banking sector and despite my good performance one day I might be made redundant. My savings are going up, property prices are going down, one day in two or three years they should meet half way. Cards aren’t stacked against me.

To make this post more optimistic, it is worth mentioning that several hundred kilometres of motorways and expressways will be opened in 2012 in Poland. Most not before Euro 2012, but we’ll have to lap this up, as construction will grind to a halt as soon as taps with EU funds are switched off.

And for a bitter ending, I’ll share with you a gut(-wrenching) feeling that’s nagged me over the past two weeks. In 2012 we’ll see a big disaster, not the one prophesised by Mayans, but an economic disaster which will be a shock for many and will result in huge turmoil on financial markets and in widespread social unrest. Something tells me the blow will be dealt in April or May.

Despite the doom and gloom emerging from the paragraph above, I wish you all a prosperous year. May you find self-fulfilment in everything you do.

* When I was setting out to write this post yesterday, these were supposed to be end-year thoughts. By some coincidence, I didn’t make it to the end yesterday and had to finish writing today; with some more effort ;-)

It won’t cease soon

2011-12-26T15:58:00.000+01:00

Some people say if you don’t have a profile on facebook or another social networking website, you simply don’t exist. I’m not in favour of this theory, but there is a grain of truth in it. Over the week when I was offline, my high-school classmates organised a Christmas meet-up and notified me via facebook. I learnt about the gathering the day after it was held. I wouldn’t have turned up anyway, as it was held at the same time as Christmas party of my company, but no one considered any other way of getting in touch with me…

The other thing I spotted on facebook last Saturday after logging in was a message from my middle-school classmate. Let’s name him Marek (name deliberately changed, again, I’m sure he at least once visited my blog and is aware of its existence). He asked me to give him my phone number and tell when he could call me, implying the sooner the better. I’m generally sensitised to all requests when I feel I can lend somebody a helping hand and felt a bit guilty, as his message was dated 14 December and I read it three days later. I went for a walk, grabbed my mobile and dialled his number (how come I had his number, he didn’t have mine?).

Marek was more than happy to hear my voice in the receiver. Without even exchanging pleasantries, he cut to the chase and asked if I had lent any money to our classmate, Karol. He left me a bit speechless for a moment, but instead of telling him I had done this mistake, my reply was: “has your money also gone down the drain?” (też utopiłeś pieniądze?).

Marek and I have known each other since we were six. He lived with his mother and sister in a neighbouring block of flats in Piaseczno, we went to the same group in the nursery school and then attended the same class and primary and middle school. We even chose the same high school, I surmise his choice was a bit influenced by mine. Marek’s life has always been uphill. He grew up without father and most of time without any financial aid from him. He has never been really talented (truth be told, even if it’s bitter), but as long as he could, he has made up for his by hard work and consistency. He has always aimed high and never liked to give up on his plans.

Despite financial hardship, Marek managed to put aside some money. In August 2010 he lent a large chunk of it, i.e. 8,000 PLN to our ex-friend, Karol. Unlike me, he secured his interests by signing a loan agreement with the hapless debtor. Until now Karol and his mother have paid him back 5,000 PLN, while 3,000 PLN remains outstanding and odds of getting it back are dwindling. As it turns out, precedence of creditors depends on their capacity to claim their money back. My loan to Karol was backed by gentleman’s agreement; Karol’s mother claims she respects it, yet when others threaten to take steps to recover their money, it’s not hard to guess who’ll be paid off first. Marek is not even better-off, just because his recovery ratio is 62.5%, while mine is 0%. For me 1,000 PLN is not a big sum, compared to my savings and earnings, for Marek 3,000 is much, much more and currently he desperately needs that money.

[insertion: it just occurred to me I could help Marek out and lend him 3,000 PLN, but I won’t…]

With the legally binding obligation to return the money, Marek is going to take the case to the court. Some law students who provide other students with legal advice free of charge have helped him write a claim and in the new year he intends to file a lawsuit against Karol. The case was if I would testify. Without much hesitation I agreed to appear before court. After all I’ll be telling the truth, but maybe I’ll help the guy who’s had it uphill all his life and doesn’t deserve to lose much of his savings. Testifying will not fray my nerves, as I’ve got over the lost money long ago and I won’t forget the story of a guy who used to my good friend, who was an up-and-coming talent and who squandered all opportunities life had offered to him, anyway.

On 9 December I sent to Karol’s family a Christmas card. I packed in an envelope and didn’t sign sender’s name at the back of it, just to give it a chance of not landing in a rubbish bin before being opened.

Just after finished the call with Marek I rang Karol’s mother, immensely curious to find out how the family are doing. What I heard from her has not impressed nor touched me, actually nothing I would hear about Karol would surprise me. Apart from what I listened about misery of Karol’s father who had undergone a surgery and Karol’s senile grandparents (all their ailments are somehow related to Karol having fallen into troubles), I have been informed that Karol is doing a sentence for unpaid debts and since his mother and I last talked, he tried to take away his life three times and is determined to try it again.

The shock came after hanging up. It sank in to me that this woman was at the end of her tether. She’s so tired of what she’s gone through that she doesn’t even appear to be moved by the fact his son wanted to commit suicide it even seems she has already come to terms with the inexorable eventuality of Karol’s suicidal departure.

Maybe the story is not apposite for the Christmas tide, but this the time, when apart from rejoicing, we should think about fellow people’s misery. Remember Band Aid’s “Do they know it’s Christmas”, peaked with Bono’s verse “Well tonight thank God it’s them, instead of you”? Cherish what you have, if you can read this post, I bet most people have it worse than you and your problems are laughably small, compared to theirs.

X-mas wishes

2011-12-24T09:27:00.000+01:00

Dear readers, wish you all, peaceful and joyful Christmas. may it be a stress-free time of rejoice, spent with your family and friends. Recharge your batteries, as you never know what the future holds and the only thing we can be sure of is that the coming year, at least for economists and so called "financial markets" won't be boring.

Offline

2011-12-18T16:32:00.001+01:00

Went through an involuntary Internet-rehab over the last week. The extent of the therapy wasn’t actually full, as I had access to most websites at work, but access to private e-mail, blogs, bank and brokerage accounts, allegro or facebook is blocked there, hence I was devoid of some entertainments offered by the Web. Truth be told I didn’t miss surfing the Net much, so it seems I’m not addicted to it(yet), but having no access to the Internet is inconvenient. I couldn’t read nor comment on any blogs, I couldn’t speculate in stocks, paying bills on-line was impossible, I didn’t know how my friends were keeping. Maybe the reason why I didn’t miss it much was that I had to work overtime over the week and back at home I wouldn’t have found much time to turn the computer on anyway. In fact my notebook was switched off for five days (antivirus software warnings of outdated protection popped up immediately), for the first time since September 2009…

The reason for being cut off the rest of the world was a defective Huawei (pron. ch**owy) modem delivered by Cyfrowy Polsat (hereinafter: CP). Buying their services was a memorable rough ride, but using it was all downhill since then. Until it worked…

The Chinese modem (piece of sh*t) began to spin out of control in November. It developed a despicable habit of disconnecting and reconnecting whenever it felt like doing so. This was a bit annoying, but I put up with this, as it didn’t impede much using the Internet. On 5 December it also began to transfer data at its discretion. Over the previous week most of time it didn’t upload nor download any data, but at times it roused up and did its job, until it went into a stand-by mode again. Last Saturday I went with it to several shops of CP, but none had any other modem to lend to us for the time of the repair. Finally an assistant recommended us to skip the intermediation of CP’s customer service and turn directly to Huawei repair centre, located in Piaseczno, who should check the modem off-hand and fix it overnight.

On Sunday, just after publishing the post on the blog, my modem gave up the ghost for good. My father took the modem to the repair centre on Monday. They promised to check it overnight and get in touch as soon as possible. They hung back on contacting us, so my father called them on Tuesday. They replied the modem was broken down beyond repair and under warranty would be replaced for a new one, free of charge. Unfortunately they had just run out of the devices and waited for the delivery of new ones. We called them for a few consecutive days and asked them when they expected the delivery. Finally on Friday they blatantly declared Christmas was coming and the new supply wouldn’t come in by the end of the year. The sods there didn’t give a shit about the fact that their customer would have to stay offline for some four weeks and pay the monthly fee for the Internet connection as usual. Shocked by the insolence of the repair centre I demanded my modem back, but it turned out it wasn’t an easy task for the sods to reverse the order which was being effected. I saw red, but despite having my blood pressure sent rising, I quickly realised they couldn’t do it to me. I was the owner of the modem and the sods could not seize my belongings, so I threatened to sue them for stealing my stuff. It worked. I called my father and he picked it up, together with the repair report, in the meantime I arranged borrowing another modem from CP shop in Piaseczno. My father did me a favour, handled the complaint procedure again and brought the lent modem home.

On Friday evening (or night) I returned home late from a corporate X-mas booze-up, additionally I looked like a drowned rat, as the pouring down rain left me totally sodden. Sodden and moderately befuddled, I didn’t feel capable of operating technical devices, so I decided to plug in the borrowed modem on Saturday. On Saturday I made an attempt to use the device, but it also turned out defective. The modem from CP shop lacked drivers and software and my computer couldn’t detect the content of its internal disk. I drove (no hangover so I assumed alcohol level in my blood was negligibly low) to CP’s shop and asked there to transfer modem drivers and CP software to my pendrive. I had to go there twice because for the first time they had given me the wrong software (from a different modem) and at last I needed to call CP customer service helpline to get the support in installing it…

Now it works, but things haven’t straightened out yet. I don’t how long my modem will be under repair, I don’t know if the opinion of the repair centre will be the same and if the new one will work properly. Right now I’m thinking how to get back on CP for the quality of their customer service. I’m not vindictive towards people, but powerful corporations that mistreat their customers must not go unpunished and their sins won’t be absolved. What sort of compensation should I demand? I don’t need apologies, they’re duty bound to provide me with a new modem under warranty, but how about claiming exemption from monthly Internet connection charges? Am I entitled?

Two readers marked my previous post as “well-argued / clear”, so a quick follow up – I’m still emotionally unstable and the magnitude of instability is very volatile.

Maybe due to what I described last week I’ve become disturbingly indifferent to current political and economic issues. I wasn’t focused the outcomes of EU summit held on 8 and 9 December, sovereignty marches staged on 30th anniversary of declaring martial law haven’t impressed me (my take on the martial law hasn’t changed since two years), nor did the end of Polish presidency to the EU. Yesterday in the evening, back online I found out stock markets are poised for a very bearish Christmas period (technical analysis and macro factors back this scenario) and may hit this year’s new low by the end of the year. Cesaria Evora and Vaclav Havel passed away - happens

I let things drift, every destiny should be fulfilled.

What no man can own, no man can take.
(U2, Yahweh)

You miss too much these days if you stop to think
(U2, Until the end of the world)

The two quotations reverberate in my mind and emerge from an enormous tangle occupying my head and giving way to clear thinking only when I concentrate at work or drive a car.

I let things drift, let the destiny fulfil itself.

Next week – another follow up to the story of my ex-classmate.

When children grow rebellious...

2011-12-11T13:25:00.000+01:00

Time goes by, entourages change. Gone is the period of formal education when every day I used to meet my peers who look at the world from roughly the same perspective as I do. People I am surrounded by these days, at least a few years older than me, have different problems, grew up in different times, spend their leisure time differently. What we usually have in common is a certain part of our background – we are almost all graduates of Warsaw School of Economics. And despite this we are all “normal”, I mean we do not fit the image of a stereotypical rat-racer. This is what probably marks the boundary between slightly “backward” Polish commercial banking and Anglo-Saxon overgrown financial sector which favours alpha-males with specific set of traits and predispositions…

All (except one, single girl aged 28) my colleagues have spouses and most have children. Their offspring are usually in pre-school or early-school age, only one colleague’s children are in their teenage years. He sometimes talks over his observations of his daughter (aged 16) and son (aged 14) with a woman from the other department whose son is also adolescent. While listening to their conversations, I finally realised what sort of problems I will have to tackle in several years, when my currently unborn children grow to the age of defiance. From what I observed, my colleagues strike a good balance between strictness and leniency in upbringing their children. They are aware it is natural that teenagers begin to have their own opinions, often totally opposite, as a matter of principle, to their parents’ views, want to dress the way they want, spend the time the way they want, meet with who they want and arrange their lives in their own way. They talk a lot to their children and forgive some misbehaviours (one-off occurrences of returning home inebriated or nasty behaviour at schools).

I sometimes butt in to their talks and present them my point of view, but more often they make me look back on over past ten years, from the moment I came into age of adolescence, until my 24th birthday. Much can be said about me, but I was anyone, but a problem child / problem teenager. For some reason, maybe because my parents would talk with me a lot, I did not have inclination stir up troubles. I always did good at school; in good and bad times, for 12 years of primary, middle and high school I passed with flying colours. I did not have to retake a single exam during four and a half years of my studies and unlike fellow students I finished my studies in time. There were some incidences of inappropriate behaviour at school, but they have never been really inexcusable and never sullied my good reputation. There were some disputes between my parents and I, there was a time when I was 16 and in a relationship with two years older girl, when we argued a lot. They told me she was not good for me, after a few months time and my ex-girlfriend proved them right. I have never experimented with drugs, never had a cigarette in my mouth (I owe it to my parents, until November 2003 chain smokers, whose addiction filled me with abiding disgust for smoking), I would hit the bottle from time to time, I used to come back home tipsy, yet in my lifetime I have not got hammered more than five times and never I had I drunk so much that I could not remember what I had been doing; I have never let the alcohol turn my stomach. Plus I was a “frugal” child – I did not need private tuition (korepetycje), I did not demand from my parents that they bought me some stuff others had.

Yet my colleagues, who patiently put up with their children, point out it is better if teenagers get through a period a defiance before they grow adult, because this has to come sooner or later, and the later it comes, the higher the magnitude of cheekiness is and the more severe outcomes of stupid decisions might be. I suppose the belated adolescence crisis has hit me recently. I am putting it down to changes that have taken place over the last year around me. The transition from school-oriented to work-oriented life, drifting apart with my schoolmates and hitting it off with older, more mature people, gaining the long-awaited financial independence; all these factors have been a source of joy and excitement, but to some extent they turned my life upside down, I am not a man I used to be a year ago. To put if briefly – I sometimes feel as if I was living someone else’s life… Some changes are positive – at work I can spread my wings. I left behind the unpleasant experience of being one of hundreds of anonymous students, which used to hurt during the years spent at SGH. I realise this might be an illusion, but where I work at least I am recognised and my accomplishments are appreciated (one day someone might recall my name and put it on a redundancy list – would it pay off not to stand out and keep a low profile?). Some changes, i.e. aforementioned tangle in my head, are a bit disturbing. When making up for the time wasted on being an obedient child, I hold off on taking stupid, emotion-rather-than-consideration-driven decision and wait. I believe by the 25th birthday it should pass…

The meek and the outraged

2011-12-04T20:01:00.002+01:00

Once upon a time there was a prosperity...

In one country in which several years ago one could rise from rags to riches, everyone, including drunkards having no jobs, no assets and no income, could get a mortgage without having to prove their creditworthiness. They could buy dreamt-up houses they had never afforded to buy and everyone was happy.

In another, once poor country, government, trade unions and employers entered into a social partnership, which gave rise to over a decade of fast, yet sustainable growth. When natural growth ran out of steam, economy was boosted by construction boom that did not last long, as everything what is credit-fuelled and based on low-efficiency sectors. They government would run budget surpluses thanks to rising property taxes and people could afford to buy houses despite prohobitive prices, thanks to easy credit conditions. Everyone was happy...

Once a country, which was facing bankruptcy in 1998, got up off its knees and rose to prosperity thanks to huge revenues from export of gas and oil... Only tycoon were happy... The rest were only proud of their new empire.

Another country, which joined the European Communities in 198,1 could rig statistics, wheedle out subsidies from the EU and live off the backs of German taxpayers. But actually eveyone was happy.

Once the biggest CEE economy was run by reckless politicians who at the same time cut taxes, raised government spending and despite this had a nearly balanced budget. But people weren't happy and in early election kicked out those magicians.

The times of living beyond one's means are gone. Good times will roll in sometime, but I suppose not before long. Come to terms with it, there's no such option as 'ship out' now.

Then the house of cards fell apart and Mr Crisis knocked on our doors. Believers of American Dream were evicted from their over-mortgaged houses and complex securities engineered by brainy quants from investment banks turned out to be a load of junk scattered all over the financial system. The government rushed to help out the troubled, but those bailed out were financial institutions. The case was that someone had been arranging the world in such way that banks had grown too big to fail and their collapse could trigger a knock-on effect, i.e. their bankruptcies would wipe out the 'real economy'. Thus the bankers were helped out and got away with the punishment and things went on.

At that time voices of people outraged at policies focused on big players, rather than ordinary people, were heard. But nothing, virtually nothing has changed.

As part of tacking the crisis, zillions of money wer pumped into financial system and some money was even injected into real economy. Economies somehow revived, but did not thrive as good as the financial system did. Drip of newly printed dollars flowed into banks' balance sheets and the banks did not, as the decision-makers had intended, turn them into loans for firms and individuals, but put them on financial markets. Between late winter of 2009 and mid-spring of 2011 stock prices doubled and commodity price tripled, not really reflecting economic recovery (often, like oil prices, threatening to hamper it).

In the meantime countries using fiscal stimuluses to prop up their economic, nations living beyond their means and those whose growth prior to the crisis had been totally unsustainable (these were the countries that had experienced property booms) fell into trouble. In 2011 banks are solvent (unless they have bought up too much "risk-free" Greek bonds), in 2011 the governments are about to go bust.

Poland got off the first wave of the crisis lightly. In early 2009 it was the only economy in Europe that did not contract. Neither the current (PO-led), nor previous (PiS-led) government could take credit for it. Accolades go to resilient Poles and their remarkable consumer confidence (in fact verging on profligacy), sound monetary policy pursued by the Polish central bank, wise financial supervision that curbed lending and resilience of Polish entrepreneurs. But lower budget proceeds and higher expenditures and inevitable in economic slowdown and so Poland as well has to tighten the belt...

But not only us. People feel it and someone roused up and discerned that ordinary people are paying for the crisis, while bankers, still untouched, are doing well. In 2008 Barack Obama won by promising the 'change'. The matter (or rather lobbyist) proved too resistant, and the change has not been brought about, leaving more and more people livid. They gathered in one New York district and dubbed themselves Wall Street Occupiers. The movement gained popularity in many countries, but I didn't think it would fell on a fertile fround in Poland. Yet for a moment it did. On 15 October hundreds of protesters marched through Warsaw's streets, but who were they? As right-wing journalists claimed, those were children of wealthy parents who thought it would be fun / trendy to protest again cruel capitalism and spent afternoon in such way. They even received support from a prominent leftist politician who came to the demonstration in his brand-new Jaguar...

In all countries they protested against the palpable distortions of capitalism, yet did not come up with any counter-ideas. Some of their postulates are even self-contradictory - how can you raise public spending and cut public debt at the same time? I don't feel affinity with those people. We are simply worlds apart, and not because we have different descents, but because our mindsets are worlds apart. I have a job that gives me a lot of satisfaction and offers me financial independence (limited, as without ruining my personal finances I cannot afford to move out from my parents' house) and... I'm afraid of losing the job, for reasons other than my performance. They are often jobless and with bleak future prospects. But where we are now is a result of how we got there and this in turn is a testimony of effort or lack of it over the past years.

And no, you are no longer entitled!

While others are outraged, I stay disturbingly meek. VAT increased by one percentrage point - other fulminate against the government, I say it is essential to bring extra revenues to the state budget. Raising the retirement age - my colleagues say they won't make it until they hit 67, I declare to toil away even longer without murmur to make budget'e ends meet. Scrapping tax deductible expenses - others are livid as they will not be allowed to claw back some money from the state, I happily commend the idea which simplifies tax system. I was even asked by my colleaugue, with a big tinge of malice, how I would be fixed for shortening paid holidays by some five days each year, cutting sick leave benefit, raising social sickness benefit contributions and restoring tax rates and brackets effective until 2008 (19% / 30% / 40%). Without much hesitation I said I would approve this, if only the money collected thus was spent wisely, i.e. on investments in infrastructure, education or, above all, contributed to reduction of public debt.

All in all, I have all makings of a ruthless technocrat who could turn an almost bankrupt country around and leave the office after four years, hated by 95% of the society. Or am I simply a naive sucker?

PS. This post written without effort. Was it read without pleasure?

So whose speech Mr Sikorski delivered?

2011-12-01T21:27:00.002+01:00

Being rather short of time over the working week, I was not aware Mr Sikorski was going to put in an appearance in Berlin. I found out about his comment-provoking speech from Charles Crawford's (former British ambassador to Poland) blog, to which W-wa Jeziorki links, on Monday late evening. I went through the post quickly and recalled Janusz Korwin-Mikke's (Polish ultra-rightist politician) words that if your enemies (for many wacky politicians almost every politician from abroad, except our beloved allies from the United States, who incidentally not only do not know where Poland lies, but also do not give a shit about our well-being) praise you, you might be in trouble. Then I put myself to bed and simply forgot about the speech. The next day the row over the content of Mr Sikorski's speech, verging on accusations of high treason, broke out. Along with politicians of ruling coalition and leftist and liberal opposition, I would (silently) stand up to Mr Sikorski's efforts to mark our presidency. Today, while sipping tea after lunch I popped by TVN24 website to learn that Mr Crawford could have authored the outstanding speech.

Bearing in mind that Mr Sikorski, despite having studied and spending over ten years in the UK, is not a native speaker of English, it surely was a wise step to hire a skillful native to have the speech polished up by a professional speechwriter. I do not believe it was Mr Crawford who wrote the speech himself. Polish foreign office, Mr Sikorski and Mr Crawford claim in unison Mr Sikorski took Mr Crawford's advice regarding content and style of the speech and it seems to be a fair account of former British ambassador's contribution.

What I find appalling anyway is the glowing praise coming from Mr Crawford. If he really contributed to the speech, he should have dissociated himself from dissecting and extolling it. Blowing one's own trumpet in such a coarse way somehow does not befit a renowned diplomat...

The last bike ride this autumn and the first snow (?) this winter (?)

2011-11-27T19:28:00.001+01:00

I rightly presumed the first weekend of November was the last opportunity to enjoy warmth this autumn. On Saturday, 5 November day-time high topped almost +15C, while on Sunday it hit less than +10C, but only then I found time to take my bike out of the garage and set off for the last, short trip this autumn. I covered less than ten kilometres, yet the trip brought about many thoughts. To the right – a commuter Radom-bound, almost empty train. How long since I last travelled by train? Didn’t I get too used to carrying my arse in a car? And who the hell cut down on number of Warsaw-bound trains in the morning in the new timetable, effective from 11 December?

I cycled along the tracks towards Jeziorki up a dirt track that according to some maps is a street. Burrows and traces of tyres indicate some desperate drivers might have ventures here, but these were probably only local farmers in their tractors, on their way to plough their fields. How long before a civilised road is built here? Which expressways and motorways scheduled to be opened before Euro 2012 will indeed be opened? Would it be possible to finish the construction of S2/S79 roads before next winter? Will the southern bypass of Warsaw be completed by 2020. Will we have decent roads out of capital by the end of decade? Will the construction of S7 expressway linking Warsaw with Kraków be put back by more than two years?

Fallen leaves rustle beneath the wheels. Instead of cycling at the side of actual road, I decide to ride on the bumpy roadside. This option is safer for me and for drivers. Why so many people, totally unaware of traffic regulations and dangers they might cause, often physically incapable of cycling on a busy road, get on their bikes and ride? Why so many do not have front, nor rear lights on their bicycles? Why so many do not have any flashy stripes on their clothing? Why must there be so many accident involving cyclists and pedestrians in the period of year when days are shorter?

The riot of colours on the trees. Trees have shed their leaves quite late this year, as September and first days of October were very warm. Then the weather has taken a turn for worse and warmth has become a scarce commodity. What will the coming winter be like? Prophets of doom would predict the harshest winter in this millennium (incidentally the third in a row), but early attack of snows and frosts in November has not been brought off for some reason…

Lukoil (Russian brand, watch out, invaders coming over!) petrol station. Unleaded 95 petrol cost three weeks ago 5.20 PLN. Last Sunday I was lucky to fill up my car for 5.28 PLN per litre. How long before high fuel prices begin to be a drag on Polish economy. Remember February 2009. USD/PLN rate hit then 3.90, but price of crude oil hovered between 30 and 40 USD per barrel. Petrol cost then some 3.20 PLN per litre. Now USD/PLN is some 0.50 PLN short of reaching the same rate and amid the current turmoil it is conceivable to that it even hits 4.00, but prices of crude oil remain absurdly high. If you assume costs of commodity makes up half of petrol retail price, it means that if USD/PLN rate is the same as in early 2009 and crude oil price in USD is three times higher, retail price of petrol should reach some 6.40 PLN. Imagine this… No room for interest rate cuts, inflation pressure may even send them rising and increase cost of borrowing. We have the nail to the coffin, now where’s the hammer?

I don’t even know if I can sincerely say we’ve had the first snow this winter, but just for the record some photos taken on Thursday, 17 November. Temperature in the morning ten days ago dropped to –4C, air was humid and as a result I beheld a considerably thick layer of hoar-frost on my car (to the right – a good examples of the bogey that winds up drivers who don’t keep their vehicles in garages). I left earlier to bring the car to a roadworthy condition. Instead of some ten minutes, the whole operation took my car and me only three minutes (I scraped the ice off side windows, while the car defrosted its windscreen, rear screen and side mirrors – accolades to the wise scientist who invented defrosting devices).

Traffic on ul. Puławska was quite sparse (I noticed on colder mornings number of old, rickety cars is lower), so I reached P&R Wilanowska much earlier and decide to walk from Metro Centrum to my office - mere 3 kilometres on a brisk, frosty morning give a decent dose of oxygen for the brain. As I walked out of the underground station it seemed to me the world looked a but whiter. As I sauntered some three hundred metres west, surfaces of all objects looked much whiter and it didn’t look like hoar frost, hard rime or ice.

As I wandered on west, the layer of white powder was more and more visible and… treacherously slippery. To the right – around five millimetres of flurry or something like this on what used to be ul. Prosta and now is the construction site of second underground line. Later I read on TVN Meteo this kind of precipitation is called snow grains. Whatever it was, it disappeared by midday and I don’t call it first snow in winter 2011/2012. It was observed only in some parts of Warsaw (my parents told me nothing had fallen in the southern suburbs) and had this happened on Saturday or Sunday, these photos would not be put up here.

Believe it or not, I don’t wait for the snows, sub-zero temperatures, or any other signs of winter. Currently North Atlantic Oscillation is very active and draws in warm air and rainfalls from the west. Upsides – high temperatures (today at 19:00 weather station on Warsaw airport reports +8C!) and no risk of snow. Downsides – gales and risk of havoc wreaked by gusty wind, plus low air pressure. Despite the downsides, I’m glad we have this kind of weather, may it stay like this possibly long. Current long-term forecasts show no intimations of winter on the horizon, really bothersome winter is unlikely to come before Christmas. Good news, given that I’m still in for two business trips in the first half of December. Chaos caused by attack of winter and inability of Poles to tackle it when it hits for the first time in a season, wouldn’t rather make the journey enjoyable.

But frosty mornings, despite nuisances, have their charm – to the right – construction site of Rondo Daszynskiego underground station, in the distance, skyline of Warsaw with its new element – Złota 44 skyscraper and two cranes surrounding it. Snapped on 23 November, the coldest morning this autumn (-6C).

The power of one man’s word

2011-11-20T19:28:00.000+01:00

This blog, just like many other in the blogosphere, seems to have seen better days. Once in a blue moon I happen to post more than once a week. Writing on the spur of the moment (usual method of running PES) is now the thing of the past; these days over the whole busy week I try to plan what to write, then change my mind, when I get down to writing.

I was going to give a coverage of my last bike trip this year and upload photos of first snow (actually I am told those were snow grains, not the proper snow) in Warsaw this year, but there is no such word as ‘weather’ in the title of the blog, hence politics from the time to time has to come into the foreground…

Friday saw the second inaugural address of prime minister Donald Tusk, who will go down in history as the first head of government to have stayed on for the second term in office. Unlike his speech four years ago, this one was not filled with visions of land of milk and honey. This time the speech, apart from leaving out many realms such as foreign relations, culture, education and health service, focused on painful economic reforms this government is going to press ahead, to at least try to turn around the Poland’s public finances.

The inaugural address went down astonishingly well with my friends, colleagues at work and my family (truth be told with my parents, as the rest of them, both at my mother’s and my father’s side vote for PiS and worship the would-be saviour JarKacz). Short, yet up-to-the point, with quite specific promises and time frame set for achieving the goals, makes it easier for voters and opposition to bring Mr Tusk for going back on his promises. I have no idea how many of them will be brought off, how many will lead to social unrest and for how many resistance of matter will be insurmountable. I do not find myself capable of assessing whether bitter promises of retrenchments and curbing public debt were just hollow words, but the speech of the prime minister did not smack of ‘mercenary PR’, so characteristic for PO and its leader.

This time Mr Tusk made us come back to earth and face the bitter truth. As a nation we have not lived beyond our means to such extent as many other did, but to save the country from falling apart we finally need to swallow a bitter pill. Let’s just face it – there are far too many untouchable privileged groups in this country that live off other taxpayers’ money – policemen entitled to pension off after 15 years in services, farmers who do not have to pay social security contributions, prosecutors and judges with pension privileges, clergy paying very low lump-sum taxes with pension contributions paid by the state. Plus thousands of other people who retire much earlier than in Western Europe, despite being still in good health. Whenever you get more than you deserve, in overall account it is not for free, just if you do not pay for it, someone else has to fork out money for your privilege. This is called redistribution of wealth. The questions remains, to what extent redistribution is fair? I am of the opinion a well-developed society cannot go without redistribution, as there are disadvantaged people who really need help and who are not culpable of their predicament, there is a need to provide equal chances to children from poor families and help those gifted young people break away from poverty, finally there are forms of getting income that have to be taxed, owing to putting no or little effort in earning – therefore I will probably never approve of lifting capital gains tax or will not be fully convinced to advantages of scrapping inheritance and donation tax.

Done with general assessment of the address, let’s drill down into details. Around twenty minutes past midday Mr Tusk said: Chcemy po pierwsze wyraźnie zwiększyć i unowocześnić daninę, którą w tej chwili pobieramy w niewystarczającym stopniu od wydobywanych bogactw naturalnych przede wszystkim miedź i srebro. (Firstly, we want to raise and revamp the tax levied on extraction of natural resources, particularly copper and silver.)

KGHM is a partly state-owned company dealing with extraction and processing of copper. In terms of market capitalisation it is the biggest company listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange. Now get the load of this… The chart shows quotations of KGHM on Friday.

Red circle marks the abrupt reaction to Mr Tusk’s declaration – price of KGHM shares plummeted by roughly 5% within less than five minutes. Number of transactions was twenty times higher than before the words of new tax. Then we saw a double-dip formation (blue circle) that portended a rebound that did not last long. Around half past four market saw the second wave of sell-off (green circle), just after five KGHM stock fell by more than 10% and trading was suspended (violet circle). Friday close price was 13.83% lower than Thursday one… Note also the volume (blue bars at the bottom). Turnover was low until the announcements and than it escalated in moment when price was going down – this shows the strength of the downward trend…

The sell-off soon prompted the questions about beneficiaries and victims of the turmoil. Government members avow that information about the content of prime minister’s speech did not leak out, Polish Financial Watchdog, for sake of good order, should carry out an investigation. In such situation, investors with inside knowledge could have sold their shares in advance, before the price plunged and speculators could have shorted them and rake in profits very quickly. I hope this will all straighten out and politicians will think twice before the say something that would swing the market…

Daleko od Wawelu - book review

2011-11-13T15:23:00.000+01:00

Spent the last two days of the shorter working week (i.e. Wednesday and Thursday) on a sick leave. I had been fighting the illness since late October, but surrounded all the time either by sneezing and coughing parents at home or by sneezing and coughing colleagues at work, I finally gave up and came down with some sort of cold. Unfortunately for my employer, I was not the only one to be absent at work at this time, but if they wanted an open plan, they should have taken into account that they would create excellent conditions for germs to fly around. And so they did…

Actually feeling a bit off-colour and staying in bed for three days has even done me good. The first day, when I had a fever did not actually bring the coveted chill-out, but then I finally found time to read books and watch films I had planned to read or watch since months.

One of them was the book written by Michał Majewski and Paweł Reszka - Daleko od Wawelu (“Far from Wawel”, where Poland’s late president Lech Kaczyński was buried). I first heard of the book in October 2010, just upon its publishing, as it was mentioned in “Polityka” as a good account of Lech Kaczyński’s term in office. As the book was reviewed mostly in liberal media, I thought it would focus on presenting the demerits of late president, yet, to my surprise, the picture of the Lech Kaczyński is anything, but one-sided.

As the authors declare, the book, compiled over many months was set to be given some finishing touches in April 2010. Before final editing, authors were appointed to talk it over with Mr Kaczyński himself, yet the final meeting was postponed until mid-April 2010 in the run-up to visit in Smolensk. Needless to say, it has never been held. Shock brought about by the Smolensk disaster put the publishing plans on hold, but a few months later authors decided to make a few technical amendments (e.g. putting past tense instead of present, for “technical” reasons) and print in the book in its pre-Smolensk shape and under a different title.

Mr Majewski and Reszka have aptly drawn a picture of Lech Kaczynski as an ordinary man, as many of us having feet of clay. They carried out several interviews with people who knew the late president well and put their accounts together. The profile of the late head of state is delineated in an unbiased way, giving credit when it was due, and pointing at weaknesses, when necessary. The picture of Lech Kaczynski which emerges from the book shows a man full of contradictions, driven most by emotions. As someone claimed, you could tell about Mr Kaczynski that he was a kind-hearted, affable interlocutor, great speaker who could deliver a speech ad hoc, meet people in a provincial town and talk to them spontaneously, or you could call him hot-tempered, dogged, disorganised, suspicious or indecisive and in both cases you would not depart from the truth. Lech Kaczynski changed moods very quickly, shouted at people and fired them, just to forget about such brawls after two days…

The biggest problem of Mr Kaczynski was, from what I inferred from the book, the fact he was extremely pliable. It is commonly known that he was steered by his brother, who had laid out their plans in politics, and wife, who toned him down, yet this was not the real case. The late president was surrounded by droves of people working in his office who competed with one another at work and used their positions to pursue their own goals. Mr Kaczynski apparently could not tell a sincere man from a mercenary bastard and often trusted too much those who did not deserve it.

Mr Kaczynski seems to appear as a victim of bad people. Not just of his brother, who made him a meaningful figure in politics or the lousy entourage from his office. As everyone realises, late president fell victim of black PR campaigns run by PO politicians masterfully since their victory in 2007 parliamentary election. The purport of PO’s depiction of the president was to present him as a stumbling block that prevents the country from moving forward and an excuse for government’s idleness. The book also sheds some light on the dark side of PO and its leader, Donald Tusk, who have rarely held back from punching below the belt. Recently, the author published a new book, titled Daleko od miłości (“Far from love”), being a similar profile of prime minister Donald Tusk. As soon as I get hold of it and read it from cover to cover, you can expect a review here.

Mr Lech Kaczynski was derided not only in Poland. Foreign diplomats took the trouble to work him out and find his soft spots. In a psychological profile they noticed he felt badly in official situations and was ill at ease during less official meeting owing to his lack of command of foreign languages. They did not hesitate to make use of that knowledge to pound at him. No wonder his ability to pursue foreign policy in a way many Poles wanted (similar to his predecessor, Mr Kwaśniewski) was largely limited.

I was deeply appalled by the overwhelming disorganisation of Mr Kaczynski’s office (kancelaria) workings. The late president could not enforce discipline, the office was run by competing cliques, decisions, due to president’s inherent indecisiveness were taken at hour eleventh, meetings were arranged much too late. Many decisions were taken on the spur of the moment and inspired by bouts of emotions. The book provides a coverage of incident of the ‘Georgian flight’, when the pilot refused to touch down in Tbilisi, slightly different than presented in Gazeta Wyborcza and gives good insight into the president foray into provincial Georgia in November 2008 when someone could have tried to shoot the president. This case, when plans were rapidly changed only due to president Saakashvili’s whim and without providing proper security to the head of state sheds light not only on bad organisation of president’s administration but also is a big question mark for alleged big friendship between the two presidents.

After reading the book, Lech Kaczynski is in my mind more like a tragic character than a mediocre president. I still claim he did not deserve to be buried in Wawel, but the time will not be turned back. The late president was actually a good man, but had no makings for a president. He did not feel comfortable holding the office and it probably would have been better if he had stayed on as professor, instead of stepping back into politics.

Shame on you if you fool me once...

2011-11-06T22:12:00.001+01:00

…but shame on me if you fool me twice. Sometimes sayings that refer to ordinary life apply to politics and economy as well.

Have you ever wondered how many times have Greeks double-crossed their breadwinners from the EU? Greece joined the European Economic Community in 1981. I have to plead I know little about the backstage of entrance to European Communities at that time, but from what I remember at that time a country which applied for a membership did not have to meet any quantitative criteria. From that point being a member of EEC has helped Greece make a big stride, yet not in terms of development, but in terms of standard of living.

Things have changed after the Maastricht Treaty was signed and took effect. It laid foundation for single currency area and set requirements a country which wanted to join it had to meet. Two of them referred to soundness of public finances – each applicant had to keep general government deficit below 3% of GDP and the whole public debt could not account for more than 60% of GDP. These are figures, and whenever statistics are in use, room for tampering can be found. Here’s the rub – when calculating the public debt a country was allowed to legally subtract some of its liabilities. The main method of concealing some of debts was using complex financial instruments, mainly cross-currency swaps that allowed the Greek government to issue bonds in other currencies at “arranged rates” and with deferred maturity. The operation that helped Greeks dupe the EU was brought off in liaison with Goldman Sachs (the bank that rules the world, there is more than just a grain of truth in this assertion). Thus in official statistics the debt was curbed, in fact it morphed into time bomb that would blow up Greece’s public finances in a few years.

For many years Greek sovereign bonds were treated as safe investment. When banking crisis in 2008 reached its zenith, many banks in Europe, including Dexia lost millions on toxic US mortgage-market-related assets, but then received capital injections. This money was parked in safe havens. One of them were Greek bonds. Collapse of Greece’s public finances came to the light in September 2009. From then on, Greece has faced insolvency many times. For the first time it received a bailout package in May 2010. Over 100 billion Euros let the country avoid bankruptcy then, but this was just the first injection of never-ending drip of money. To borrow money on preferential terms from the EU and the IMF, Greece had to implement painful austerity measures. Greeks, pampered by overgrown welfare system, went to the streets to protest against dreadful retrenchment programme. The country repeatedly came to a standstill, strikes exacerbated economic contraction and debt-to-GDP ratio soared.

In most European countries the crisis was sparked by excessive expansion of deregulated banking industry, mainly consisting in reckless mortgage lending. In Greece banking sector stayed relatively healthy. The overgrown welfare state and lack of competitiveness of Greek economy were the nails used to close the coffin of Greece. Many privileges, despite social unrest, can be scrapped, but structural changes are will not be easily brought in, given the mentality of Greek society. Big grey economy and widespread claimant stance (postawa roszczeniowa) will be a stumble block. Greece must not only cut ridiculous expenses, but also take steps to boost its tax revenue base. Tax evasion must finally be severely punished, wages must finally be linked to efficiency. It sounds simply, but Greece has to get to grips with bigger challenges. In needs to carry out structural reforms to make its products and services sellable on global markets. It would be easier if they could be sold at lower prices, but as long as Greece is a member of the Eurozone, devaluation of currency does not come into play.

Solidarity is a glue that stick together the European Union. Poland is also a big beneficiary of this. As a poorer country we receive lots of money to modernise the country. A big leap being made in infrastructure development can be put down the inflow of EU funds, but life is not only about taking, but also about giving. One country should not sponge on other, as Greece has done. And if other countries bail one country out, it should not come up with ideas such as the one to call a referendum whether to accept another tranche of bailout package, subject to another dose of painful reforms.

Someone finally should bite the bullet and pull the plug on Greece. I would simply let it go bust, let banks write down or write off value of Greek bonds (most creditors of Greece are capable to absorb such losses, although it would be a blow to their shareholders). I would even let it start from scratch. But even in such scenario, I seriously doubt if Greeks would learn from their mistakes. They would rather be taught that if creditors let them get away with not meeting their obligations, that they can carry on living off other countries’ backs.

The Euro, as a currency, as well as the Eurozone, are political, not economic undertakings and for that reason no one will have the courage to kick out Greece from the eurozone. Admitting one’s defeat is a bitter pill to swallow, but in my view, this painful solution would in long-term turn out to be best, and less costly than pumping next billions into a bankrupt country.

All Saints' Day

2011-11-01T19:00:00.002+01:00

Year by year, I dare to claim the first day of November is called ‘All Saints’ Day’ because it takes patience of a Saint to survive it. Having spent almost 24 years in this world I still can’t grasp the concept of rounding up all people on cemeteries around one day. Maybe the incongruity is no bigger than distributing visits over the whole year, but these visits result in throng, throng and once again throng. Jammed roads near cemeteries, crowds of people walking from one grave to another, hundreds of candle- and flower-sellers putting up their stalls outside cemeteries, drivers struggling to park their vehicles – these are main types of entertainment on that lovely day.

Visits to cemeteries make an opportunity to ponder upon the place of death in contemporary culture. Remembrance is being pushed aside – just take a look – everyone suddenly remembers about the departed around 1 November and as soon as they come back from cemeteries, they forget, until the next year. Just a week ago when my mother and I drove to Piaseczno to tidy up my grandparents’ grave, they were hardly any cars outside cemetery gate. Today cars were parked everywhere, within the distance of one kilometre from the cemetery. Oddly enough, traffic away from cemeteries is quite sparse, but beware…

Long weekend around All Saints’ Day is a time when too many people depart this world. From Saturday until today’s afternoon death toll has hit 47, 476 people were injured in traffic accidents. This weekend will go down as one of the most tragic of all. Everyone says weather is to blame. In most parts of Poland the day is warm, visibility is reasonably good, it doesn’t rain nor snow, so drivers tend to put their foot down. The higher the speed, the more tragic accidents are. When the weather gets bad, drivers slow down, there are more prangs, but far fewer people die or are injured. Today I saw one smash-up, typical rear-ending, quite hard to understand for me, but from what I’ve observed over the past weekend, drivers’ behaviour this year is even up to the mark, the biggest dangers are posed by reckless pedestrians. Such thoughtlessness, recklessness and inattention have I never seen. Walking in the middle of a road, trespassing onto the road just in front of an oncoming car, swerving, standing on a road and staring at God knows what, staggering. No wonder pedestrians account for about 50% of this weekend’s fatalities. If my observations are right, in many cases they also caused accidents. Another plague are of course cyclists, usually elderly people riding their bikes loaded with kilograms of stuff they carry to a cemetery. The wobble, don’t see what’s going on behind them. So beware of them as well.

Not breaking the old tradition, my family visit the graves earlier. We went to Bródno in mid-October, a week later to Piaseczno, as our visit coincided with my grandfather’s death anniversary and on Sunday we went to Prażmów and again to Piaseczno. As yesterday my father was busy and I was at work, last visits were put back to today. In the morning we visited cemetery in Konstancin where my father’s family rest and then went again to Piaseczno. Fortunately, the tour was ticked off by midday and in the afternoon I could enjoy a walk on a lovely autumnal afternoon (temperature of +13C, four degrees cooler than a year ago, yet still balmy).

To the right – a symbolic grave of three boys, aged 20 – 21, killed in an accident on 15 September 2011. The inebriated driver of BMW 735 drove at almost 200 kmph, so as it lost control over the car and it went into a skid, the Burak Ma Wózek shattered into pieces. One of the passengers, who hadn’t fastened safety belts was shot out of the car and miraculously survived. Three other ones died at the scene. The accident was the local “issue of the day”, but later the coverage of it ceased. As my mother’s friend learnt, the driver was a son of a local policeman so no wonder the case was covered up. Maybe I am insensitive, but I don’t understand why so many people feel sorry for the drunk idiots who killed themselves. I feel sorry for their families and feel a big relief that they didn’t kill anyone else. And I can’t see the point in making an altar out of rear lamp and parts of bumper of the written-off car. So many people cry after three sods, while many valuable people die in loneliness…

Then I strolled west to Stara Iwiczna, to visit a small, cosy cemetery, with beginnings traced back to first half of nineteenth century. I noticed the local society has put up a symbolic grave for priest Andrzej Kwaśnik who used to be a rector of the parish in Stara Iwiczna for 12 years. He died tragically in near Smolensk on 10 April 2010.

Heading back home, I snap another nightmare outside cemetery gate. This is just a small cemetery and cars are parked everywhere. The worst thing is that everyone MUST take their cars, normally kept in a barn unused and go to a cemetery by car, even if they live within a walking distance from it. My neighbours came there by their clapped-out car and thus covered almost one kilometre in a car, rather than as they should – on foot.

Around that day, I came to think about Karol, whom I had lent 1,000 PLN in May 2010. Needless to say I still haven’t recovered the money. I decided to call his mother to find out how he was doing. I called her on her mobile, from mine, without withholding the number. There was no reply. Yesterday I dialled their landline number and in case they had caller ID detection on, withheld my number. The one who picked up the phone was Karol. Now I know he stays at home and is alive. It finally sank in to me that I’ve long got over the loss of money, but I can’t get over being duped…

And finally yesterday, while being on a loose end at work, I browsed profiles of famous people who passed away over the last year. And… the read was a bit shocking. Out of 24 people, two were hated by millions and killed (Osama Ibn Laden, Muammar Gaddafi), two committed suicides (Andrzej Lepper, Edward Żentara) and one was a drug- and alcohol-addict (Amy Winehouse). The list is lightly dejecting, but uplifting is the news that over 200 lives were saved today…

Let go - the best way to check out...

2011-10-27T21:28:00.000+02:00

If you love somebody, let them go. If they come back, they'll always be yours; if they don't, they've never been.

Years go by and some adages will never go outdated. I heard that quote for the first time some nine years when I fell in love seriously for the first time, but from time to time it resounda in my head.

Letting go is actually about giving up on somebody and seems to be an act of surrender, but giving the loved one freedom to pursue their happiness is, in each case of unreciprocated love, the best possible choice.

Life doesn't always turn out the way we expect, but life musn't rest on compelling and killing other people with kindness. Floating in a realm of lies and delusions is in the long run even more crippling than loneliness. Attempts to pursue one's own happiness heedless of other people's emotions and feeling can lead only nowhere.

We should mind other people's emotions but shouldn't be constrained by them. However, we have right to pursue our own happiness, sometimes we can't do it without hurting other people, but no matter how absurdly it sounds, we should hurt them with care, gently.

Heartaches are never pleasant, but in a way they develop our emotions. Every wound one day heals. But some wounds cease to ache but leave scars that bring back painful memories.

Love's not only about being together with the loved one. True love consists in craving for someone else's happiness.

No, no, nothing bad's happened. Written for posterity, in case I forget it...

A new member to Polish - English blogosphere

2011-10-25T18:31:00.000+02:00

Slightly taken aback by the news that my high school class-mate from high school (VI LO im. Reytana) has just set up a bilingual blog on fashion. I can't sincerely declare I share Kasia's, interest in fashion trends, but whenever a young person takes up blogging, it's commendable. When the writer is not male and when she, as a Pole, decides to write in both Polish and English, the venture deserves even more glowing praise. Oddly enough, Kasia is the only person I know from the "real world" (i.e. except those I've got to know via Internet) to run a blog. Either blogging is not a popular hobby, or some people, like me, hide it from the rest of the world (although I made a progress, I showed the blog to my parents).

On the day she starts her "Fashion Corner" I wish Kasia thousands of bright ideas to commit to the blog and I hope she won't run out of energy and inspiration to keep on writing.

Me, the sluggish blogger

2011-10-23T22:49:00.000+02:00

Again I buggered up. Faced with scarcity of time over the week and manifold activities piling up for the weekend, I set myself a routine of writing once a week. This time I almost didn't manage. I planned to write about "the outraged", Polish movement which rose up as a response to Occupy Wall Street and similar itiviatives across the world. Maybe the next weekend will be more merciful. Over the week, unlike "the outraged" I burnt the midnight oil at work and from Monday to Wednesday could not even find time and energy to turn the computer on. Over the weekend on top of being burdened with family duties and household chores I had the choice either to indulge in physical (swimming pool, walk) or social activity or to stare at computer screen, and eventually opted for the former. Obviously if I had chosen to stay in and conjure up a mind-blowing post about capitalist societies rousing up, but striking a balance between economics, banking and down-to-earth issues seems more important than satisfying my readers. So... Apologies.

Maybe over the weekend I'll finally follow out my plan.

The guilt

2011-10-16T20:29:00.000+02:00

Student SGH? Me? I chose that nickname as I was setting up this blog in February 2009, because being a student was one of main social roles I would perform then and the easiest to put clearly into words. As someone rightly noticed, some time ago I graduated and no longer can call myself a student. Unlike many of my peers I have not struggled to find a job after I finished the studies, I do not work on "junk contract" (umowa śmieciowa), I have a permanent job. Someone said I am a banker. I think this sound misleading. I do not deal in high amounts of money, I just analyse credit risk, my job is to assure a company should be able to pay back the money it wants to borrow. I have worked too short to get it wrong at least once. I earn relatively well, though I was recently told my salary accounts for only 60% of average salary on my position in the whole industry. Unlike most of my compatriots, I have savings, given my age they are quite ample. I try to make even more money by speculating on stock exchange; sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Plus the only asset I have is a car - a gift from my parents on occasion of graduating from SGH. And last Sunday I voted for Platforma Obywatelska because I was convinced, as almost 40% of voters, that things were quite alright.

Should I have remorse?

I something amiss in the short confession above? Let's dissect it.

Unlike many of my peers I have not struggled to find a job after I finished the studies - The whole debate can boil down to one question - is it true that a man's key to success lies in his own hands. Who are those young people who cannot get a job? Can anyone put together a profile of an unemployed graduate? What did they study? When choosing what to study, did they assess job prospects for graduates? During their studies did they engage in any student organizations? Did they do internships during summer holidays? What did they do to raise their qualifications? What earnings do they expect when entering the labour market?

It was a twist of fate that I work where I work. I partly owe it to luck. On Easter Monday last year I put in my application to Grasz o Staż contest. I cracked a three-page long case study and sent it, not holding out much hopes to be qualified to the next stage. Then out of the blue came a horribly tough interview at a bank. I was given ten minutes to prepare financial analysis of a company on a verge of bankruptcy. There was no space for luck, I had to prove my knowledge. I got in, what I later achieved was thanks to sheer hard work. And I never complained about my salary, employer's requirements, etc.

I do not work under a "junk contract" (umowa śmieciowa) - I cannot see the point in the fuss about junk contracts. For young people who still study they are excellent - no need to pay social security contributions, effective tax rate for such contracts for students is below 15%. Plus they offer more flexibility to both parties to such contracts...

I have a permanent job - now a different story. Despite having some job security (not only in contractual terms, but also at work, where I feel no one is going to lay me off), I am not creditworthy for banks. I do not plan to take out a mortgage, but if I wanted I would not get more than 140,000 PLN. This is... great news. The fewer people deserve, in banks' view, to be granted a loan, the more property prices fall and the sooner I can buy something for cash.

Someone said I am a banker. I think this sound misleading. I do not deal in high amounts of money, I just analyse credit risk, my job is to assure a company should be able to pay back the money it wants to borrow - maybe the case is that English does not distinguish between bankier and bankowiec (not to mention examples of rencista and rentier). I am a bankowiec - someone who works at a bank, but not someone who earns zillions and not, as many people tend to think, foist loans upon helpless clients. My job is to foster the bank's interests. In very simple words, my role is to check and analyse, which company will have capacity to repay a loan, which not, and to justify why. I do not rip anyone off and if a company does not get financing, it is not because I have it in for it. My employer pays me for taking care of quality of its portfolio, so I simply do my bit as good as I can.

I have worked too short to get it wrong at least once. But the economic slowdown is nearing and we are taking steps to prepare for it. One day I'll make a mistake, and I think this will be a valuable experience. One best learns from one's own mistakes...

I earn relatively well, though I was recently told my salary accounts for only 60% of average salary on my position in the whole industry. Many of my peers have inflated expectations regarding their starting salary. This one of main reasons why young people have problems on the labour market. My take on this is that they should, as I did, accept low salary at the beginning, and with time, through aforementioned sheer hard work, prove they deserve more. During the internship I had in summer last year I got paid peanuts, in February I started a three-month probation period over which I was paid more, than I got another pay raise and now I have no reasons to complain. I believe with time, provided the crisis does not spark off for good, my salary should go up again.

Unlike most of my compatriots, I have savings, given my age they are quite ample. - I do not understand why in this country people who are thrifty are at best scowled at. Being good at managing one's own finances is a virtue. Being able to amass some wealth, instead of squandering money does reflect well upon a man. Why those who save are punished, while those who borrow and live beyond their means are taken care of, helped out, etc.?

I try to make even more money by speculating on stock exchange; sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. - and those who buy and sell risk are now assaulted as well. Speculators are to blame for potential sovereign defaults? I know market participants are often insane, their decisions are driven by emotions, herd instinct, irrational, but after all many speculations are based on fundamentals (betting if Greece, Italy or Spain go bust is not unfounded) and on every speculation someone loses. Every speculator is sooner or later beaten in their own game. The only rule in that game that has to be obeyed is that no one should be bailed out. Once you take a risk, you should lose all hopes that anyone will give you helpind hand if things go wrong.

Plus the only assets I have is a car - a gift from my parents on occasion of graduating from SGH.. Yes, I do have remorse, when I pass by people tinned like sardines in a bus. Now I feel like shutting up.

And last Sunday I voted for Platforma Obywatelska because I was convinced, as almost 40% of voters, that things were quite alright. - and I voted for 'evildoers', 'traitors', I opted for the 'further downfall of Poland'. But for over a year I many times glanced at political decisions taken in Hungary and I am grateful to Jarosław Kaczyński for reminding me why I did not vote for his party...

Waiting for some waspich comments to crop up. Feel free to bash me!

Maybe next week about Wall Street occupiers...

Peace, rather than PiS

2011-10-09T21:17:00.001+02:00

We got the preliminary results, based on exit polls. Figures are still very approximate and may vary, but they clearly indicate PO is the party in the history of Poland to win the parliamentary election for the second time in a row. The same figures show is also will be able to keep on wielding power in coalition with PSL.

The victory of PO means no big change is in the offing, Poland is in for four years of predictable and pragmatic, yet sometimes mediocre and feckless rule.

Am I elated? I don't think there's a reason. Poles, including me, voted for PO, because there is no alternative, no better option. We have to make do with what we have. I wish they make wise decisions in the coming economic crisis. May they overhaul Polish public finances, as they have failed to do hitherto, may they utilise prudently EU funds, may they push this country forward.

I think Mr Kaczynski's speaking, not in the same manner as he did in 2007. I wonder how long before the first squabble breaks out...

Update, Monday 10 October
Winning PO scored over 39% of votes, runner-up - PiS, gained slightly less than 30%. The biggest winner is Palikot's movement that scored roughly every tenth vote. The election has brought about a considerable reshuffle in Polish politics...

In the meantime no one turned out to be well-brought-up enough to congratulate the winners. Soon after exit polles came to the light Jarosław Kaczyński threatened one day he would take the path of Hungary where Victor Orban's party won majority of seats in the parliament last year. I hope Poland will be faring well amid the economic slowdown and sovereign debt crisis. Politicians from the opposition already make a wish that the crisis wipes out Donald Tusk's government. Envy and hubris again take over. Those who want the crisis to overturn the prime minister want it to take its toll on Poles as well.

As long as they run Poland, may they do it prudently and mind the outcome.

Home straight

2011-10-06T20:52:00.001+02:00

If there is anything I can appeal for three days before the election, it is the presence. Not only the presence of mind when casting a ballot, but presence in the polling stations. When Sunday comes, please, go to the polls, exercise your right to choose your representatives, to choose the shape of Poland in years to come. I do not conceal my political preferences, I will vote for the "servile party of evildoers who have driven Poland to ultimate downfall", but I am not going to exhort to vote for any party. I am calling for high turnout. And please do not scratch beneath the surface. I am not going to prove the rule that the more people go to the polls, the lower the percentage of votes scored by wacky candidates is. Higher turnout gives a stronger mandate to rule the country. Whoever wins, should be authorised by the nation to wield power.

Last days of the lacklustre campaign to my surprise abounded in twists of action. On Monday Tomasz Lis in his evening TV show attempted to drag down Jarosław Kaczyński, but inadvertently dragged himself down by assaulting the leader of PiS in way far cry from objectivity that befits a journalist. Then came the inept pronouncemnt of Mr Kaczynski concerning means by which chancellor Angela Merker rose to power.

In the last days of September it was quite clear to me that PiS would win the election; today this scenario is setting aside. There was a time when PiS had caught up with PO, but then it made one overriding mistake - it switched uncontrollably from deceptive image of peaceful party to its old good style marked by invoking resentments and hostility. I have also observed that so called "young, edcuated, from big cities" who had seemed so indifferent of politics somehow realised what was amiss and roused up. They simply realised PiS would win. Lots of people in Warsaw are so strongly convinced PiS will win this election. Discussions about politics, officially forbidden in my corporation are run every day in the office... Conclusion? If mishaps strike out of the blue... Will people take precautions?

And if PiS wins? Their victory itself will not be a disaster. It does not really matter who wins, what matters is how they rule. If PiS wins, they must get a chance to form a government and Mr Komorowski is duty bound to entrust this mission to Mr Kaczynski. I promise not to see red if Mr Kaczynski's party wins. I will wait for their first moves. And at the end of the day level of adrenaline in my body fell after cutting down on speculating on the stock market, so a reshuffle in politics might send it back up. And last but not least, I am sticking to my promise of setting up a political blog in Polish if PiS wins. That would be a challenge, but could it give pleasure?

Beautiful late summer

2011-10-02T19:20:00.001+02:00

A shame I haven’t illustrated this post with some photos. An egregious error…

The summer of 2011 did not pamper Poland with beautiful weather. It wasn’t actually cold, as average temperature of July was around long-term average and August was slightly warmer than average, but both months gave a rough ride to holidaymakers as both were much wetter than normally. For me, as I didn’t go on holiday, it was great – I was exempted from duty of watering the garden, plus the water bill was lower.

But September did a good job and made up for wet and moderately warm summer months. It was much drier and sunnier and even the typical September’s nuisance – big daily temperature amplitudes weren’t as bothersome as usually. In a word – weather was perfect.

Superb Spanish weather site Ogimet gives some stats concerning weather in Warsaw in September 2011 (note for weather anoraks)

Average temperature: +15.1C – 3 degrees warmer than last year, 0.4 degrees cooler than in 2009 and some 1.5 above long-term average.

Month-time high: 5 September, +26.5C

Month-time low: 17 September, +2.7C (I don’t recall it…)

The warmest day: 12 September – average temperature of +19.4C (typical for July)

The coolest day: 17 September – average temperature of +11.1C.

Two more facts bear out that this September was pleasantly warm: firstly on no single day I had to wear more than two layers of clothing in the morning, I always could do with a shirt and a jacket and quite often got sweat on my way to work (too hot in the underground trains) and this year until today we haven’t turned the heating on. In 2008, 2009 and 2010 we were forced to do it respectively on 16 September, 1 October and 29 September.

Two first days of October also brought a whiff of warm air, yet it wasn’t as warm as forecasters had predicted – yesterday day-time high hit +21C, in line with meteorologists’ forecasts, today it was no warmer than +16C, two degrees colder than what weather forecasts had said. Over the whole weekend the gloss of the sunshine was taken off by northerly winds and one had to find shelter to bask in the sun. Actually despite some chill the weather’s been up to the mark. I mown my lawn today in the afternoon and then cycled in a T-shirt only and during both activities I broke sweat it means it wasn’t cool. The bike ride was perfect, but again, shame on me, I didn’t take the camera and couldn’t take pictures of all the stuff I was taking delight in. But comes another warm and sunny Saturday or Sunday, shall I go there again and snap, snap, snap…

Such warmth is not really unusual for this time of year. On 8 October 2009 temperature in Poland’s capital hit +24C and Poland’s October heat record of +28.6C was set on 14 October 1966. The coming two days should be warmer, with temperatures in Warsaw up to +22C and sunshine (how lovely), then Wednesday is going to be cooler, Thursday again warmer, and true Autumn is predicted to hit on Friday and stay over the election weekend. Weather in the second decade of October is rather unforeseeable, I saw forecasts of both dull days with temperatures between +10C and +15C, as well as return of gold autumn with temperatures up to +20C. Hope the latter proves true. The later gloomy autumn comes, the longer will people be able to save on heating (how practical).

I hope the coming winter will be milder than two previous ones. Long-term forecasts, hardly ever reliable, say winter will come early and go early as well. The current predictions for the coming months are as follows:

October: chilly and windy, what anyway means is will be warmer than in 2010, the worst will be the last decade, when temperatures will be often dropping below +5C.

November: cold and wet, the author of the forecasts adds “just like last year”. Doesn’t she / he remember the beautiful warm and sunny long weekend in mid-November 2010?

December: frosty and dry, with white Christmas. This to some extent resembles December 2010. I’m alright with white Christmas. Afterwards the winter may go to Russia.

January: frosty, dry, with changeable weather.

February: should bring above-average temperatures and early spring.

March: spring in overdrive.

I personally hope the forecast proves true for February and March, the rest doesn’t fill me with optimism. I would prefer a warm winter for three reasons:

1. the aforementioned heating bill,

2. I’ll keeping the car outside the warm garage for the first time. I have to replace the battery, and with a new one I shouldn’t be afraid of temperatures above –20C as long as the car will be used every day and the battery will be charged up, but heavy snowfalls accompanied by low temperatures can play havoc with the battery and other sensitive elements of the car. But wait, so many people keep their cars in open air, so maybe I’m seeking out problems. But on the other hand I saw so many people having troubles with their cars kept in open air in winter…

3. I wish the builders of roads for Euro 2012: Niech im zima lekką będzie. If the weather allows them to press on with works, then there will be a chance that roads will be completed by the end of 2012 (the odds that they’ll be passable in June 2012 are negligibly low).

When trying to predict weather for the winter on my own, I tried to find correlation between politics, economy and weather. Take a look:

2005/2006 – winter is harsh and snowy. Polish economy enters the period of boom, power is wielded by Kaczynski brothers (some say it is a punishment for voting for PiS).

2006/2007 – until 24 January there is no snow, heat records are beaten in mid-January, then ensues a short, yet typical winter that ends for good in the last week of February. Polish economy still grows rapidly, Poles are sick of twin brothers wielding power.

2007/2008 – the warmest winter of the last decade. Snow lingers for less than ten days, on the coldest day the temperature drops to mere –14C. Polish economy is still doing well, but the power is taken over by PO.

2008/2009 – typical Polish winter, with frosts hitting –22C in Warsaw, periods of thaw and snowstorms. Nothing new in politics, but Poland is hit by world-wide economic crisis. Funnily enough, Warsaw is paralysed by a snowstorm exactly the day bear market on Warsaw stock exchange and zloty against other currencies hit their troughs.

2009/2010 – harsh and snowy winter. PO still wields power, economy is rebounding. When stock markets go up in the second half of January, Poland suffers in the fetters of winter. When in first week of February winter eases off, bringing sunshine and temperatures slightly above zero, stock market in Warsaw plummets by 4% for two days in a row.

2010/2011 – cold and snowy December, normal January, cold, but dry February. PO is still ruling, yet the party is falling into pieces, economy still grows, albeit the peak of the business cycle is near.

To recap, I couldn’t observe any significant correlation. If you see any linkages, feel free to share them with other readers and me.

And regardless of what future holds, expect another Winter timeline in March 2012.

Let's twist again

2011-09-25T21:41:00.000+02:00

We sang it at work on Thursday morning. As most analysts anticipated, The Federal Reserve did not decide to launch QE3. We have already had two round of quantitative easing programmes, consisting in buying government bonds by the central bank to boost liquidity in the financial system. This operation boils down to printing money (in civilised countries it is illegal, so maybe the United States no longer deserve being called "civilised"). The first two rounds carried out between late 2008 and early 2011 resulted in nothing more than bull market on stock and commodity markets. The beneficiaries of the programmes were speculators, so again, Wall Street was better off, Main Street had to stay in the doldrums.

Funnily enough, the old adage that you should not play against the Fed proved true again. Okay, buying up lots of government bonds from the banks gave them a lot of free money that had to be utilised somehow, so cash created extra demand on financial markets But hang on. Was it not the mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy that worked again? If everyone believed stock prices would go up if the Fed began to print money, would eveyone not buy stocks which would be about to go up in prices?

Unfortunately for some of the speculators, the Fed has run out of space for another operation, as inflationary pressures began to heighten and more and more members of the governing committee were against the easing. The alternative plan will now be followed out - the US central bank will be determined to change the shape of yield curve, to be precise to flatten it. To follow out this plan, Mr Bernanke will order to sell short-term bonds and from proceeds he will buy long-term bonds. This should help the economy revive and is mostly aimed at kick-starting the housing market, as interests on mortgage loans are benchmarked to long-term interest rates. Time will tell if the real economy benefits from this operation, probably the action was arranged in collaboration with the government which will find it easier to sell its long-term bonds and thus the Fed will put back the moment when the United States default, which is just a matter of time. Of course they may not default, but only thanks to high inflation which would reduce the real value of US public debt.

Markets' reaction was more or less predictable and more or less apposite. Scatts, sick of hearing about stock swinging up and down ranted about "moronic stock markets". His piece is an excellent observation from a down-to-earth participant, yet not an economist and not someone who has an in-depth insight into the psychology of usually irrational market participants. In a comment I promised to refer to some of his points.

Scatts goes on about higher volatility. It has become the order of the day that one day stocks soar, the other plunge, sometimes there are a few days in a row when prices move in one direction, than the tide turns abruptly. Firstly, it proves we are in a bear market. It is not only the trend that tells you if a market goes up or down, it is also the volatility. The more nervous market participants are, the more likely it is 'bears' prevail.

But in such days volatility can be a friend. If you are a long-term investor, skip this paragraph... My prescription for successful trading when the markets are wobbly is to swim against the tide. If stocks skyrocket, I sell, if they plumment, I buy. The other part of my strategy is not buying and selling in one chunk but splitting orders into tranches and placing them and different prices. The goal is to lower as much as possible the average purchase price. The task is not easy, requires patience and intuition and brings out some adrenaline...

Communication - markets today buy and sell rumours, declarations, reckless pronouncements, unfounded theories. One politician says there is a plan to stave off Greek default - stocks go up. One economist says bankrupcty of Greece is inexorable and the sooner - the better - stocks go down. Someone says a French bank has troubles borrowing money on inter-bank markets - shares of that bank nosedive... On and on... Markets, if they acted more rationally, would respond to facts.

And facts are that nothing is going to save Greece, economies in Europe and across the world are slowing down, banks will need to write down Greek bonds. I cannot see any point in putting this hapless moment back. Let it happen, ride out the tsunami, what is brittle has to fall down before it grows too big (it has already grown, too late), economies need to be healed from all imperfections that cuased the crisis. Putting some countries and instututions out of misery would make the best way. But most people want to avoid chaos, maybe cherishing stability is a commendable strategy, but at all cost?

Just like in late 2008 and early 2009 Polish currency was recently hit by speculators. Short-sellers are throwing more and more PLN on the market and zloty has depreciated notably in September, by roughly 15% against EUR and USD. Last Friday the Polish central bank and state-owned BGK sold some foreign currencies to prop up PLN. They managed to bring down EUR/PLN and USD/PLN by some 0.10 PLN within half and hour. But is any central bank capable of fighting speculators trying to decrease the value of a specific currency? Of course buying PLN in bulk can activate some stop-loss orders and deter some speculators, but only in the short run. I would sooner desist from any actions. After all Polish companies are not hit by toxic currency option as they were in early 2009. Weaker PLN will boost our exports and competitiveness and increase Poland's chance to get off the second wave of the crisis lightly.

The main condition we have to fulfil to avert dire consequences of the second wave of crisis is wise management of our public finances, as private sector appears to be prepared quite well for a slowdown. And here reality fills me with dread for two reasons...
In two weeks the parliament election will be held. I do not dare to predict who wins it, but...
PiS, currently in the opposition wants to bring public finances into order, but at the same time promises the moon. Its declarations are self-contradictory - you cannot have a cake and eat it, you cannot give something to somebody without taking something away from someone else, you cannot increase budget expenditures anc cut budget deficit... It is not said in their agenda how they are going to raise money for all the giveaways...
PO, currently in power rather leans towards realpolitik and holds back from making big promises, but on the other hand the PO-led government has inclination for tweaking with figures, so they will bend over backwards to avoid exceeding the 55% public debt / GDP threshold (possible, if EUR/PLN rises on 31 December 2011 to some 4.70), which would force the government to pass a balance budget for 2012. That would not be possible without painful retrenchment and tax hikes, yet this scenatio is much better than sweeping the problem under the carpet and lifting the threshold and consequent obligations to curb deficit and implement turn-around plans. I hope no matter who wins the election, the people in power will be judicious. I know, Poles deserve more, but more important is what Poles can afford than what Poles deserve. And if we do not want to end up like Greece, we should be guided be the former.

Hot autumn in politics

2011-09-18T16:53:00.002+02:00

Looking at recent posts you might have inferred subject matters brought up recently depart more and more from what the blog should be mostly about. Time to get back to the core…

To politics…

The pre-election campaign has been in overdrive for a few weeks but I somehow do not feel that in three weeks I will go to the polls. This campaign in a way looks lacklustre for me, nothing really exciting has been going on. I do not know if it is good or bad, maybe I have too little time to keep track of the events in politics, but this campaign appears to me much different that all the recent ones (those in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2005 and 2007 and before early presidential election last year).

The first remarkable thing is that two fellow bloggers are running for parliament. Toyah goes in for a seat in the lower house from constituency Katowice from Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (hereinafter PiS) list, while Paulina can be found on Warsaw’s lists of Ruch Poparcia Palikota. I will not have a chance to vote for any of them, I actually do not know personally anyone from the lists in my constituency.

A few months ago it was quite sure that Platforma Obywatelska (hereinafter PO) would be the odds-on favourite of the autumn election. Today, as the most recent polls show the biggest oppositional party, PiS has caught up with the ruling PO and support for the latter is in some polls is less than five percentage points lower than for the former. Actually it is not an astonishing tendency. PO’s victory would be the first ever win of the ruling party in Poland after 1989. Each time before, Poles were sick of previous governments and wanted something other, but that is a negligible factor. Never before have Poles been so divided in terms of political views. There was a strong hatred towards PiS in 2007, now there is a strong hatred, but mostly towards PO, hostility towards PiS is still alive, media still favour PO, but electorate of PiS has built up strong backing and keeps growing in power. It is no longer passé to admit publicly one votes for PiS, in this respect things look much better than in 2007 when voters of stepping down PiS were really despised and it was cool to vote for PO. Today those who back Mr Kaczynski can hold their heads up high.

I see some reasons why support for PiS is on the rise:

- people are sick of success propaganda pursued by the current government and run out of patience,

- the issue of Smolensk has been shelved,

- the new strategy of the party sets out to build a new image of open-minded, moderate party which wants to develop Poland on foundations of traditional values in a modern way,

- plus again it promises the moon in terms of economics, as if they were capable of cracking down on rising costs of living, unemployment, etc.

And there is reason why I do not understand it. All other parties take part in debates, while PiS members only organise press conferences of give interviews, they do not want to discuss with other parties. Supporters of PiS say it is because media are biased, opponents claim in turn PiS members know they are not prepared for a substantial debate. The truth lies… Do not hope to find it out… It lies where it lies…

I sometimes dare to think PiS wants to lose the election and focus on fighting for ultimate power in 2015, taking over the whole power (majority of two-third in the parliament plus their president). It could be even quite convenient to them to let PO run Poland through the end of the impending second wave of economic crisis, repeat hackneyed theses of Poland in a total downfall, chaos, ruled by incompetent people.

The campaign and politics as a whole abounds in inept pronouncements. The most noteworthy examples from the recent months are:

24 August – PiS deputy and ecomomic expert Beata Szydło says in Tok FM radio Polish GDP is shrinking (in the second quarter of 2011 it rose by 4.3% year-on-year).

26 August – PiS deputy Adam Hofman comments on the new clip of Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (hereinafter PSL) saying guys from the countryside came to the capital and go bananas.

Early days of September – member of Monetary Policy Council, Zyta Gilowska, former finance minister in PiS-led government publicly backs PiS and declares her readiness to take part in a debate with the incumbent finance minister on public finance. Such activity would have been a blatant violation of central bank independence and derogation of Polish central banking law. This move wound me up as an economist and on 7 September I was going to write a short note to condemn her misdemeanour. Eventually on the same day, during the ending session of the council Zyta Gilowska was probably taken to the task by the president of the central bank, came to her senses and backed out of the idea of engaging in political activity.

14 September – Mr Rostowski, from the ruling PO, during his speech in the European Parliament scaremongers claiming that if the EU fails to overcome the ongoing economic crisis, it will lead not only to social unrest, but may end up with war over the coming decade. Are there things you can think of, but shouldn’t mention?

16 September – Grzegorz Napieralski, leader of Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (hereinafter SLD) calls PO to create a government if PiS wins the election. The perplexing idea is quickly and rightly retorted by the prime minister Donald Tusk who reminds Mr Napieralski that only Poles have a right to decide who will form the government. If PiS gets the biggest percent of votes it should build a new government. Who would dare to enter a coalition with them is a totally different story…

Of course this coverage is biased, but still less biased than posts on other blogs…

Now a quick look at agendas of two parties that have a chance to win the election.

PO wants to press ahead with modernisation of Poland with the method of small steps. No big liberal reforms, no difficult choices. PO underlines what it claims to have done over last 4 years and silently concedes its defeats. Unlike SLD it does not focus on reviving memories of IV RP nor wants to put Jarosław Kaczyński and Zbigniew Ziobro before the Constitutional Tribunal. In a word – realpolitik…

PiS also has an agenda, but it consists mainly of:

a) criticising feckless PO-led government,

b) taking pride in achievements of PiS-led government.

But seriously, as a biased recipient I have to say it is simply incoherent and lacks details. Let’s examine some parts of their economic agenda.

PiS wants to levy an additional tax on banks. At least one candidate of this party says banks are evil and if only possible would love to wipe them out. Coming back to the bank tax, no one says on what (equity, total assets, deposits, net income) the tax would be paid, but in the meantime PiS wants to boost banks’ income by extending the Rodzina na Swoim programme, under which the state pays half of the interest on mortgage loans to families who buy a new flat or house and meet specific criteria. The programme boosts demand on properties and consequently also property prices go up. This means the beneficiaries of the subsidies for the borrowers are (1) developers which can sell flats at higher prices and earn more and (2) banks which can charge clients higher margins (it is proved that loans under Rodzina na Swoim have higher margins, because cost for a client is lower than for a non-subsidised loan anyway). If property prices rise, fewer people can afford to buy a flat without a mortgage, so more people have to go to banks plus they have to borrow more. And so the banks earn more and debt burdens of households increase…

It is easy to say banks enslave people, but how does it impinge on the contribution PiS wants to make? Another thing I like in the agenda of PiS and speeches delivered by Mr Kaczyński is the phrases pieniądze się muszą znaleźć (money has to be found) and są zasoby do których można sięgnąć (there are resources that can be tapped). I have not heard until now where that money is, nor what those resources are. Pooling wool over poor voters’ eyes all the way… Or if somebody could enlighten me…?

Mr Kaczyński is of the opinion that the rich, not the poor should bear higher tax burdens. So why the heck did his party (with support of PO) resolve to cut the income tax marginal rates by 8 percentage points for the richest, by 12 percentage points for well-earning ones and by one, mere one percentage post for most Poles? Why did they cut sickness benefit contribution (składka rentowa) and grant tax deductible amount for each child under such conditions that the poorest could not deduct any amount? Key beneficiaries of all those moves are the well-off, it would be quite natural if those changes were pushed through by libreal PO, but they were passed in times of Polska Solidarna. Jarosław Kaczyński surely solidarised with the better-off.

If PO wins… Someone will surely say the election has been rigged.

If PiS wins… Someone will surely call Poles idiots, morons, etc.

If PiS wins… Life will be much more exciting.

If PiS wins… Maybe I will set up a Polish language blog on politics…

I do not think victory of Mr Kaczyński party would be a disaster, but I do not want it for Poland. I do not want my country to follow the path of Hungary under Mr Orban’s administration. As much and as little.

Early fall, there's a cloud on the New York skyline

2011-09-11T15:21:00.000+02:00

9/11 is one of few events in the history I remember well. Once, in the first anniversary of Smolensk disaster, I brought back memories of that day. Now there is no point in repeating them, there is no use in writing how that terrorist attack changed the world, dwelling on how unbelievable it was would sound like a cliche. As an economist I could address the topic by weighing up pros and cons of suspending trading on Wall Street by the end of the fateful week or going on about the impact of loose monetary policy pursued by Fed to buoy up US economy after 9/11 on formation of US housing bubble.

The economic aspects of 9/11 are apparently compelling, but before I got really interested in economics I had had a period in my life which had had its climax in Janaury 2008 (winter exam period) when I went through a silly fascination with 9/11 conspiracy theories. Over that one month not only did I underperform on my exams which cost me a lower scholarship in the subsequent semester, but I also downloaded several films (Loose change, The greatest lie ever sold, In the plane site, The secret evil of September the 11th, Zeitgeist) about 9/11 alleged conspiracies and watched them. There was a time when I deeply believed in those theories, with time I grew out of them. My sound mind tells me they are hogwash, but I do not have sufficient information and knowledge to verify all facts and allegations... Conspiracy theorists make use of the fact people are unable to substantiate their claims and this lets conspiracy theories thrive...

So when everyone else looks back on shock brought about by the events we witnessed exactly 10 years ago, or commemorates the victims of the attacks, let's look at some stuff everyone passes over today, although it is said one-third of U.S. citizens do not believe in official account of 9/11 attacks...

1. The attack was plotted by U.S government to crack down on middle-east regimes, instill fear in people and cut down on civil liberties...

2. Alternatively, the U.S. administration knew about the plans of attack but did nothing to prevent them, as it was a good pretext for neo-conservative administration to pursue their plans set out in paragraph 1...

3. There was a large number of transactions in shares of airlines and insurance companies before 9/11, with the most recognised trading in put options on shares of United Airlines executed the day before the attacks...

4. The twin towers did not collapse on their own, but were demolished with use of bombs planted inside them...

5. Moreover, WTC 7 was "pulled (down)" in the same way - the building did not collapse naturally...

6. Pentagon building was a hit by missile...

7. Something was attached to planes which hit WTC towers, alternatively those were no passenger planes...

And many, many other... (the list does not enumarate several reported UFO sightings caught on tape)

I dare to claim 9/11 was the same for the United States as Smolensk disaster for Poland. Both tragedies were very traumatic for both nations, both left a mark in political arenas. Despite many dissimilarities, such as number of fatalities and who they were for the countries, causes and circumstances or the events, they have something in common - both have not been and stand no chance to be explained in 100%. In both cases investigations following the tragedies were said to be intransparent. Whenever some obfuscation emerges, there is room for doubt, looking out for inconsistencies. Actually both 9/11 and Smolensk were so hard to believe that it is in a way natural that there are people who will keep scratching beneath the surface to find out what "the real causes" were. Ten years after 9/11 many people believe it was an inside job, and I am sure in ten years there will be people in Poland saying Tusk and Putin contrived it, the plane landed and was shuttered by a bomb, Russian agents killed those passengers who had survived the impact, the birch could not break off the left wing or the fog in Smolensk was artificial... It can't be helped...

Poland under construction

2011-09-04T09:02:00.000+02:00

Or, if it rings a bell, Polska w budowie...

Not a political post this time. Beware through, the tetchy issue will have to return sooner or later, as soon as a politician who has no notion about economics will come up with an extraordinarily preposterous idea... The campaign hots up, but it kicked off before an official beginning, when the ruling party presented its brochure titled the same as my posting.

I do travel around Poland and I see the PO's catchphrase is not just a set of hollow words. Big injection of funds from EU has brought about a big progress in infrastructure development. When I travel in business taking photos raises immediately suspicions concerning the purpose of it (as if I acted with the detriment to my company), so I abide by stringent business trip policy guidelines and simply scrutinise construction with my eyes. But last Wednesday I travelled privately to Jelenia Góra and back, as my father and I were dropping off my mother to a sanatory there.

The coverage must begin with an indispensable landmark of Polish disgraceful roads. This traffic signage means you should expect to have the speed at which you are driving controlled by a funny device. Usually a driver who sees such sign slows down by 50 kmph. Abrupt braking may be potentially more hazardous than speeding, as a driver behind may not use the brake pedal as immediately as necessary.

And here comes the culprit. Inconspicuous, grey machine, quite often with its lens covered. This time I didn't see a single speed camera taking a shot of a speeding road hog. Some time ago the Polish parliament was about to pass a decree according to which speed camera dummies were to be removed. I don't know if it has been passed and if it has taken effect, but some of the cameras I spotted along the way looked fake.

To the right - the first photographed example of construction going on. An over 20-kilometre long section of S8 expressway linking Oleśnica and Syców. To be precise, the road should link Wrocław Psie Pole junction and Syców, the part of this road, namely bypass of Oleśnica has been completed a few years ago.

The day we ventured to Jelenia Góra the newly built motorway bypass of Wrocław was opened. The opening was scheduled for early afternoon hours, so around 10:00 a.m., when we reached Wrocław we drove the usual route of national road number 8 that runs (and takes, errr... used to take the whole traffic) through the city centre. Wrocław, no matter how charming it is, does not deserve to called a driver-friendly city. To the right - that's how a national road looked - wasn't it a shame. I like cobblestone, but it's not an appropriate road for transit traffic.

Trip through Wrocław had one benefit - I accidentally noticed the highest skyscraper in Wrocław, Sky Tower, also under construction. And in the foreground - a blue tram, a hint for discrenible eye the photo comes from Wroclove.

The stopover in Jelenia Góra lasted just half an hour. A shame we planned to go there and back within one day, as I'd love to roam around the town. I could only snap a street running towards the market square from the car window. Sightseeing beckons... And lack of true holidays over last two years makes itself more and more felt...

To the right - Jelenia Góra can't afford to lag behind with other regions where infrastructure is building up and it builds a flyover over national road number 3. I don't know for what reason it is erected, but Poland is experiencing an infrastructure construction boom, so not only private-funded construction booms lead to absurdities.

At 13:12, as we were approaching A4 motorway, the police opened the central section of Wrocław bypass motorway. No need to drive through the city again. On big junction before Bielany Wrocławskie we're turning left and just enjoy the ride... Traffic is rather sparse, I wonder if drivers knew about the opening and how many took a day off (Skyscrapercity forum told me later many did so) to celebrate opening of the bypass?

The most breathtaking part of the motorway (soon converted into expressway, to make it a toll-free road for cars) is the cable-stayed bridge - Most Rędziński, pride and joy of Wrocław's residents. I have to say I've never seen such a beautiful road in Poland, I'm looking forward to seeing something similar in Warsaw, part of it, linking Konotopa on the western fringes of Warsaw and ul. Puławska should be completed next year (construction has got behind schedule and pace of works is stunningly erratic).

An observant reader has surely noticed a missing piece in the photo coverage. These are unmade snaps of modernised Katowicka - national road number 8 between Rawa Mazowiecka and Piotrków Trybunalski. The dual carriageway was built in mid 1970s and was long due for reconstruction after which it will meet criteria of expressway. The reason why there are no photos of it is that I drove down and up this road and my father declined to save the horror of driving there for posterity. But if you really need to see what's going on there, get on to relevant page on Skyscrapercity forum.

920 kilometres covered within one day is not an enviable experience, but also one-day business trips look in the same way. We set off at 04:50 in the morning and pitched up home at 20:25, both my father and I were falling flat on our faces. Driving in such conditions is not a big pleasure, but when the big stride we are witnessing is made, driving around Poland will be faster and safer. The only pity is that EU will not be as open-handed as it was in 2007-2013 agenda and Poland itself will also fall short of money for infrastructural programmes. I only hope the pace of constrcution will only fall back rather than grind to a halt...

Story of my life*

2011-08-28T15:13:00.000+02:00

Lit upon this just a moment ago, reluctant to rant over Bernanke's dithering, Poland under construction (maybe next week), independent members of monetary polic council backing a specific party or an insolent lout who said members parliament who hail from the countryside had gone bananas...

Random memories, teenage years, put into sublime words

11 September 2001

It's early fall

There's a cloud on the New York skyline

Innocence dragged across a yellow line

21 May 2011

True love can never be rent

But only true love can keep beauty innocent

20 September 2002

I took the money

I spiked your drink

You miss too much these days if you stop to think

You lead me on with those innocent eyes

You know I love the element of surprise

11 October 2002

Did I ask too much, more than a lot?

You gave me nothing, now it's all I got

12 October 2002

Three o'clock in the morning

It's quiet and there's no one around

Just the bang and the clatter

As an angel runs to ground

Just the bang and the clatter

As an angel hits the ground

5 November 2002

You say when he hits you, you don't mind

Because when he hurts you, you feel alive

Is that what it is?

Red lights, grey morning

You stumble out of a hole in the ground

A vampire or a victim

It depends on who's around

23 January 2003

Carnival

The wheels fly and the colors spin

Through alcohol

Red wine that punctures the skin

Face to face

In a dry and waterless place

14 February 2003

And if you listen I can't call

And if you jump, you just might fall

And if you shout I'll only hear you

14 April 2003

So sad to beseige your love so head on

Stay this time

Stay tonight in a lie

I'm only asking but I...

I think you know

28 June 2003

She runs through the streets

With her eyes painted red

Under black belly of cloud in the rain

In through a doorway she brings me

White gold and pearls stolen from the sea

She is raging

And the storm blows up in her eyes

She will...

Suffer the needle chill

She's running to stand...

27 March 2004

You know he got the cure

You know he went astray

He used to stay awake

To drive the dreams he had away

He wanted to believe

In the hands of love

2 April 2004

I'm a man

I'm not a child

A man who sees

The shadow behidn your eyes

5 April 2004

You say love is a temple, love a higher law

Love is a temple, love the higher law

You ask me to enter, but then you make me crawl

And I can't be holding on to what you got, when all you got is hurt

29 June 2004

I want you to know

That you don't need me anymore

I want you to know

You don't need anyone

Or anything at all

28 September 2004

And we live by the side of the road

On the side of a hill

As the valley explode

Dislocated, suffocated

The land grows weary of its own

26 November 2004

And you feel like no-one before

You steal right under my door

And I kneel 'cause I want you some more

I want the lot of what you got

And I want nothing that you're not

18 March 2005

You were pretty as a picture

It was all there to see

Then your face caught up with your psychology

With a mouth full of teeth

You ate all your friends

And you broke every heart thinking every heart mends

You speak of signs and wonders

But I need something other

I would believe if I was able

But I'm waiting on the crumbs from your table

31 May 2005

Listen to me now

I need to let you know

You don't have to go it alone

And it's you when I look in the mirror

And it's you when I don't pick up the phone

Sometimes you can't make it on your own

11 September 2005

Oh, oh, oh...on borderland we run...

And still we run

We run and don't look back

I'll be there

Tonight

14 October 2005

The glass is cut

The bottle run dry

Our love runs cold

In the caverns of the night

We're wounded by fear

Injured in doubt

I can lose myself

11 December 2005

Time? time...

Won't leave me as I am

But time won't take the boy out of this man

8 April 2006

No, nothing makes sense

Nothing seems to fit

I know you'd hit out

If you only knew who to hit

14 July 2006

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

27 July 2006

Desert sky

Dream beneath a desert sky

The rivers run but soon run dry

We need new dreams tonight

1 January 2007

If I could throw this

Lifeless lifeline to the wind

Leave this heart of clay

See you walk, walk away

Into the night

And through the rain

Into the half-light

And through the flame

If I could through myself

Set your spirit free

I'd lead your heart away

See you break, break away

Into the light

And to the day

To let it go

And so to fade away

To let it go

And so fade away

21 December 2007

Blinded you lost your way

Through the side streets and the alleyway

Like a star exploding in the night

Falling to the city in broad daylight

24 January 2008

It's no secret that a conscience can sometimes be a pest

It's no secret ambition bites the nails of success

7 August 2008

When I first met you girl

You had fire in your soul

What happened to you face of melting now?

25 September 2008

You're in my mind all of the time

I know that's not enough

if the sky can crack

there must be some way back

to love and only love

23 October 2008

One step closer to knowing

24 December 2008

See His mother dealing in a doorway see Father Christmas with a begging bowl

Jesus sister's eyes are a blister ... The High Street never looked so low

3 March 2009

Now this dry ground it bears no fruit at all

Only poppies laugh under the crescent moon

The road refuses strangers

The land the seeds we sow

Where might we find the land as white as snow

1 April 2009

It's not a hill, it's a mountain

As you start out the climb

24 July 2009

At the moment of surrender

I'm falling to my knees

I did not notice the passers-by

And they did not notice me

14 July 2009

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

24 Septmeber 2009

I must be an acrobat

To talk like this

10 April 2010

In the wind we hear their laughter

In the rain we see their tears

Hear their heartbeat

We hear their heartbeat

19 May 2010

You can dream

So dream out loud

You know that your time is coming 'round

So don't let the bastards grind you down

31 May 2010

He went deeper into black

Deeper into white

Could see the stars shining

Like nails in the night

22 August 2010

In my dream I was drowning my sorrows

But my sorrows, they learned to swim

Surrounding me, going down on me

Spilling over the brim

4 November 2010

Haven't seen you in quite a while

I was down the hold just passing time

Last time we met was a low-lit room

20 November 2010

Jesus can you take the time

To throw a drowning man a line?

19 March 2011

And it’s already gone too far

You said that if you go in hard

You won’t get hurt

30 June 2011

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

25 August 2011

If I could, you know I would

If I could, I would

Let it go...

This desparation

Dislocation

Separation

Condemnation

Revelation

In temptation

Isolation

Desolation

Let it go

* Compiled solely from U2 lyrics

Recharging batteries

2011-08-21T11:35:00.000+02:00

Probably almost everyone, counting out Scatts, has already got bored with the topic of shaky stock markets, so this undeniably exciting issue will recede into background for a while and I'll focus on more down-to-earth stuff. I've had a busy weekend, the coming ones don't appear to give respite (longing for real restful holidays), but over the long mid-August weekend I had some time to recharge batteries...

On Sunday I brought my parents on taking a trip to Konstancin. The foray was quite short, the weather was perfect (sun, not to hot, not really cool) and batteries in my camera had long been waiting for charging up - took just a few snaps. To the right - view from a path running from rebuilt bridge over river Jeziorka towards the park. Water meadows are flooded, mosquitos assault, but the place enchants.

To the right - got into the park. The signage (probably - my guess) shows distances to twin cities to Konstancin. A few second after taking this photo I had to rush quickly from the pavement, as reversing bus on military number plates was attempting to crunch me. Shouldn't such parks have status of pedestrian precincts, with bans on entry for engine-propelled vehicles?

To the right - the main cultural attraction of the park in Konstancin - a bandstand, with some musicians getting ready for a performance. The stage, built recently shows some glitches in terms of technique of construction, but all in all this place should be here to offer entertainment to local residents and tourists. It has to be said it has a long tradition. My father would come here for dancing in his late teens, my paternal grandparents met here two years after WWII. May it look splendid...

On Monday morning I ventured for a bike trip around nearby villages. The weather stays perfect - +17C and sun. Warm, yet cool enough to wear a T-shirt without running a risk of breaking sweat. Bracing breeze is taking edge off heat and so off I go. To the right - empty street in Piaseczno - one can cycle safely when the traffic is so sparse - one of main advantages of riding a bike in the morning on Sundays or bank holidays.

To the right - first photo taken without stopping. Due to technical limitations of my bike and physical limitations of my legs I don't risk being fined for speeding. This is ul. Orężna in Piaseczno. One of favourite destination of walks with my mother and maternal grandfather in my childhood. Memories brought back; the place hasn't changed much since then, but unlike in 1990s this is not a dreamt-up place to live.

Why wouldn't I like to settle down here? Come to think of it. Rural landscapes, silence, no fumes, no noises, no... infrastructure. It's actually hard to get by here if you don't have a car at your disposal. Local buses run here a few times a day, you can catch one in morning rush hour, but if you happen to oversleep and come late, you're in the doghouse. The last one arrives here at 20:20 - much too early. Think of coming late from a party - you have three options: 1) don't drink and come by car on your own, 2) ask someone from your family to pick you up, 3) take a taxi. Each option has a drawback: 1) you can't draw pleasure from blissful state of intoxication, soberity is not conducive to socialising, 2) you are dependent on someone, 3) you fork out over 100 PLN for a ride from Warsaw (Metro Wilanowska)...

This time I fail to make a sharp photo without stopping a bike. This colourful building is a typical landmark of Polish rural landscape. Feels like I'm some 300 kilometres away from Warsaw, while in fact I'm less than 5 kilometres, as teh crow flies, from the city limits. As you can see, the owner did not bother to turn up and open the facility on bank holiday (according to Polish labour code, only shopowners can stand behind the counters on bank holidays).

I cycle further west to discover I don't know where I am. The signboard to the left says I'm cycling to Jazgarzewszczyzna (what a long name!), the one to the right opts for Łoziska. The truth probably lies in between, so the road must mark boundary between the two villages. As I'm snapping the signboards, symbols of Polish mistrust bark at me loudly. Suddenly one of them finds an open gate and makes me put away the camera to my pocket and test how quick I can pedal...

Having turned right in Bobrowiec I find myself on ul. Postępu running straight towards Warsaw, where its extension is ul. Karczunkowska. Bus stop with ZTM signage reminds me I'm still in the vicinity of Warsaw. This doesn't yet mean commuting from here is easy. Buses run just a few times a day, so if you miss one, you may have a problem. The traffic is still sparse. What a lovely day!

Crossed the intersection with road linking Piaseczno and Magdalenka and I'm heading north. I stop on the roadside to snap a beatiful field overgrown by weeds. In the distance - detached and semi-detached houses in Lesznowola. In six years S7 expressway running from Warsaw to Kraków should be here. According to plan this is also a site where a junction with local 721 road is about to be built. But these are years to come, before it happens. After Euro 2012 spurt, pace of construction is very likely to grind to a halt.

Some 500 metres up the road I again stop by to take a shot of a partly pulled down house. When I last was there in early June there was one more room on the first floor. Who used to live here? Why was it torn down in such weird way? Who administers it?

Turned right in Nowa Wola and I'm on my way towards Nowa Iwiczna. Reckless drivers tend to speed at empty ul. Krasickiego Nowa Wola, so I choose to cycle on empty pavement, built in 2008 after two tragic accident in which three pedestrians had been killed at the scene. And a classic snap - Warsaw skyline as seen from beyond the southern border of Warsaw. Skyscrapers are shrouded in a haze, as the air is wet, as it's been for a few weeks on. With dry air, the visibility would a whole lot better. Compact camera set at the highest possible resolution, maximum (4x) optical zoom in use - device is a bit too close to the low-end to rise to the occasion.

And at the very and - a photo from the archives. I wanted to put it up on Polandian, but fellow writers remonstrated me over chasing cheap sensation. Another shot of Warsaw skyline, taken on 8 August 2010 around 8:35 in the morning, from the corner of ul. Karczunkowska and ul. Raszyńska, I don't know if it is still Warsaw, Zamienie or Zgorzała. Click to enlarge, look carefully... Can you see anything strange?

When markets go haywire

2011-08-14T18:56:00.001+02:00

August 2011 for many will go down in history as a period of increased volatility on the markets. Stock markets all over the world, Swiss franc and gold swung up and down, markets began to resemble a rollercoaster. This is probably one of more apposite metaphors rendering goings-on on the markets over last two weeks, but if you opt for a blunt comparison, get on to New York Post cover which drew a parallel between stock price quotations and a prostitute’s pants. I thought Polish tabloid Fakt beats anything else in terms of stupidity, but again I was wrong.

Looking back on the last weeks, the recent turmoil should not haven taken us aback. In June I even had a clear inkling of an upcoming tumble, as in the light of macroeconomic situation and recurring patterns markets tend to follow, what happened was absolutely predictable.

The bull market of 2009 – 2011. Hmm, am I not going too far by claiming the bull market is over? Well, technically it is, as stock indices have fallen by more than 20% from their peaks. OK, let’s start over. The last bull market began in February 2009 when economies were in the doldrums and stocks were down some 60% - 70% down from their peaks noted in 2007. Stimulus programmes aimed at reviving economies, cheap money injected into financial markets and scale of preceding bear market conjured up an abrupt bull market that lasted until August 2009. Within six months stocks soared by some 60% - 70%, then ensued the second wave of bull market, of moderate growth of price, intermingling with periods of downbeat expectations, such as those in early February 2010 or in late spring 2010 when Greece was about to go bust for the first time. With time, and as markets were flooded by cheap money printed by the FED, speculators got immune to bad news. Markets slowly rose to reach peaks in late April 2011. WIG20, the index of Warsaw Stock Exchange covering 20 blue chips (which will later be a benchmark for me) rose between 17 February 2009 to 28 April 2011 by 123% and peaked at 2,942 points. The invisible barrier of 3,000 points was close at hand, yet out of reach, just as 4,000 in October 2007 when WIG20 hit its ever-time high of 3,941 points. Then markets behaved typically (this means there was no speculative bubble) for a cyclical downturn. Peak was reached with difficulties, then stocks retreated and a slow descent ensued. The phase of descent which usually lasts between two and three months, here lasted slightly longer, but the scale of consequent sell-off made up for the long wait. In a typical scenario after the sell-off there’s a correction upwards and then begins the longest phase of bear market, when price gradually decline and more and more people lose their hope and sell stocks with losses, until the cycle reaches its trough, i.e. the moment when it just can’t be any worse.

I did expect it. I knew debt ceiling dispute in the United States could be a spark to set the flame on the markets and even began selling stocks and putting money on bank deposits. But as the fateful 2 August was drawing nearer and markets did not discount the technical-default scenario I assumed nothing bad would happen and stocks would even shoot up when the debt ceiling deal would be struck. Indeed, by means of give and take Democrats and Republican agreed to increase the debt ceiling and bring down government expenses, but this happened at hour eleven and did not put markets at ease.

I knew sooner or later things would look really dreadfully but put back the decision to sell all stocks, but after all, as Scatts said, I learnt a valuable lesson. On 2 August 2011, in the eve of the crash around 30% of my portfolio was in stocks, share with the biggest weighting was JSW, bought in IPO in early July and sold in only 20% (with profit).

Now let’s look at the timeline of the turmoil.

2 August 2011 – WIG20 drops by over 1%, although debt ceiling is poised to be raised and problem of the US default is postponed by two years.

3 August 2011 – WIG 20 drops by 3.26% and breaks the resistance at 2,600 points which was said to open the door for a bigger correction. It seems markets should get over the news on US debt deal. I don’t buy, nor sell.

4 August 2011 – during the trading session WIG20 floats below 3 August close, only after US market open it begins to decline. At the end of the day it plummets by 3.55%. I’m livid, this was bound to happen and I didn’t get rid of all stocks, to make it worse, some of my buy orders were executed and boosted my stock holdings.

5 August 2011 – I bet on that day the market should bounce back. It does for a moment when US non-farm payroll data are announced. Some of my take-profit orders are executed, I sell more or less the same securities as bought the day before. I’m calm, panic has reached its climax, now it’ll only get better. WIG20 down by mere 1.63%.

6 August 2011 – not a trading day, but I wake up to hear the news US sovereign rating was downgraded. A tsunami on the markets is in the offing…

8 August 2011 – I decide to make two bets – either market has discounted and nothing happens, or the S&P report on the downgrade will bring about the second, bigger wave of panic. To my surprise both scenarios materialised. In the morning stocks were up and I sold some and in the afternoon when market participants in the US set out to sell stocks, I bought the same stocks back at lower prices and inadvertently became a day-trader. When markets opened I sold all crappy stocks, incurring losses, to garner more money to buy shares in solid companies. WIG20 tumbled by 2.34%. Stock indices in the US fall by over 4% (DJIA) or devilish 6.66% (S&P 500).

9 August 2011 – I say to myself nothing lasts forever and again place buy and sell orders, waiting for any of possible scenarios to materialise. Buy will be executed, if stocks really plummet (price decreasing by at least 8%), sell will go if prices rise by only 1%. Sell-off continues and I keep buying stocks, average purchase prices decline. Despite corrective rallies in the US WIG20 falls by 3.20%, but it end the day much higher than intra-day drop by over 5%.

10 August 2011 – Anna Jantar’s song Nic nie może wiecznie trwać reverberates in my head, but I need a deep breath, I don’t try to buy nor sell anything. I need to think things over and protect my psyche. I wrote MA thesis on speculative bubbles and I know adverse market conditions can severely impact one’s mental health. At the end of another harrowing day (WIG20 down by 5.16%) I count my assets. An equivalent of one and a half of my monthly salary has vanished into the air. I knew there were risks in the game, this loss is still better than giant outstanding debts in Swiss franc my colleagues have…

11 August 2011 – in the morning, before going to work I transfer an amount of money that reduces share of safe assets in my portfolio to 50% to my brokerage account and make a huge bet that stocks will plummet again and place huge buy order at levels some 7% lower than Wednesday’s close on really solid stocks. Lucky me, this materialises, blue chip stocks are very volatile and I managed to buy a lot very near troughs. Then the market skyrockets and within a day on some stocks I gained 10% This proves still too little to make up for my previous losses. My move is an example of aggressive speculation that could or even should have ended in a very painful way, but somehow I was in the luck and it didn’t. On that day WIG20 reached the intra-day low of 2,115 points. I checked and the last time it had been that low on 30 July 2009. Over two years of bull market wiped out within a week! Despite losses I draw pleasure from experiencing it. At the end of the day WIG20 rises by 4.53%

12 August 2011 – I decide to sell some stocks of JSW which hit me the most, if they rise, I do so and don’t try anything else. Everything indicates the panic is gone and stocks should make a move upwards and give me the chance to recover my losses.

Try to ask me what future holds – I won’t tell you, I’m helpless. On one hand I still hold the view that bear market is inevitable due to macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand companies are doing well and their stocks seemed very cheap recently. A rebound would be a typical scenario subsequent to the sell-off we witnessed, but what then.

My speculative strategy is not to buy anything, unless prices drop more than 10% below lows recorded on Thursday. If my stocks reach the price near my break even point, I’ll start selling them gradually. There is no other way, time of risky actions taken to win back money is over, now it’s time to stay on the safe side. If market returns to levels above 2,500 points I still won’t be buying anything, but will protect my profits by stop-loss orders and pull out of the market if it goes under again. In the long run there are too many problems to let markets go up. I think I’ll prefer a bank deposit, but hey, will I be able to live without little dose of gambling stock market offers? Safety should be then more important to me than pleasure…

In fact this is all about psychology. Normally when the market goes haywire and plummets as it did over last two weeks, people fall into panic, institutional traders sell because their stop-loss orders activate, but someone buys these stocks. Thank God I kept a cool head and didn’t panic, although there were moments I wanted to sell all stocks just to keep my head quiet and forget about the nightmare of mounting losses. I persevered, my first big sell-off when I was in the market didn’t break my back and thanks to a stupid, risky strategy of catching a falling knife I didn’t lose a lot (now my loss equals only one monthly salary). This lesson has to be learnt.

Self-censorship

2011-08-07T18:10:00.000+02:00

The biggest drawback of infrequent blogging is that I can't keep up with goings-on as I would like to. Last Thursday I wrote a short post, but this was just an exception that proved the rule... Last Monday I hatched the idea of writing about Mr Sikorski hapless utterance on Warsaw Uprising, but in the meantime markets crashed, Polish former deputy prime minister died and United States had their credit rating downgraded. Time to catch up...

1. Mr Sikorski's blunder...
Is an ideal starting point for a discussion on limits of free speech. Two days before the anniversary he dared to announce on Twitter (or twitted) Warsaw Uprising had been a national disaster we should learn a lesson from and linked to a webpage run by opponents of cult of Uprising. The backlash came immediately. Politicians from his party described his statement as inappropriate and politicians from PiS deemed it to be flagrant. The harsh reaction speaks volumes about state of free speech and situation of dissenters in Poland. Everyone can have their own views, but if they are not in line with generally accepted ideology, please keep quiet...

But let's take the issue apart. I wrote two years ago a post on the Warsaw Uprising and haven't changed my mind since then. There's no need to repeat what I said then, so let's just invoke the figures that should get stuck in your minds. 180,000 civilisans dead, those alive driven out of the city, capital of Poland virtually wiped off the map. Given the death toll and scale of destruction, wasn't it a disaster? Didn't Mr Sikorski have courage to say what other people are afraid to say? As I mentioned in the posting dated 1 August 2009, my own family was also affected by the uprising and my parents' and mine opinions have been shaped by what we have heard at homes. For us, the uprising was an act of not only great courage but also of great desperation. I mused about those young people who couldn't wait to get back on their oppressors and probably if I had lived then, I would take the same decision. I would fight, even if I knew it had been a losing battle. Therefore I believe we must foster rememberance of those days and commemorate those brave young people who fought to free their beloved city, pay tribute to thousands of innocent civilians who died in numerous carnages, but I refuse to speak highly about generals who masterminded the whole operation. The price to pay seems for me too high. Some would argue, it was worth doing, because Stalin's army waited until insurgents in Warsaw breathed their last and it halted advance of communist soldiers into Western Europe. Uncanny, yet logical hypothesis, but do Westerners care???

2. Andrzej Lepper's death
The news that former deputy prime minister in Jarosław Kaczyński was found hung in the head office of his party in Warsaw hit me on Saturday. Officially, he committed suicide, all evidence indicate he did it himself, only the question about reasons remains unanswered. Some speculate about family problems, some claim financial troubles pushed him to take the last step. But hang on, sex scandal problems have long been sorted out, his son was said to be terminally ill, but hasn't died yet. Grief after son's death could push him to a suicide, but not the illness. Did he know too much, was it in someone's vested interest to liquidate him? I know this sounds like conspiracy theory, yet such concepts spring up whenever there's a lot of room for doubts and an event is hardly believable. Andrzej Lepper was a strong man, he fought his way into the parliament, went through a stormy coalition that wiped his party off the policital arena. Came hell or high water, he would stay afloat, so what could cause a breakdown that allegedly made him grab a rope and kick away a stool?

3. Market crash.
Shit happens sometimes. We haven't seen such a panic since 2008 and the worst is not over. On Friday when markets opened, panic sell-off reached its climax. After a few minutes of trading stock prices bounced back and for the rest of the day stayed between 1% and 2% below Thursday's close. There was a moment, just after upbeat US pay-roll data was released, when some stocks were quoted higher than the day before. To paraphrase the old saying - what comes down, must go up. After a three-day sell-off when the panic was gone, speculators should step in and bet a rebound. Hopes for such scenario were dashed on Saturday morning when S&P agency announced it downgraded US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ and reaffirmed negative outlook. Two other rating agencies upheld their grades of triple A. What the implications for the markets will be then? Judging by plummeting indices in Middle-East countries, another wave of panic is about to spill over and the coming week will be marked by fear and gloom. But on the other hand every man with a head screwed in has long realised United States are bankrupt and their debt service capacity is conditioned only on possibility to roll it over. So does a downgrade mean anything? From an economic point of view nothing has changed, but from technical perspective, the downgrade will force investment institutions that build their investment portfolios according to specific guidelines to reshuffle the securities they invest in. Swiss franc and gold will probably remain safe havens what will send prices of both to new record-breaking levels. The troubles must be really serious, if governors of central banks called a meeting together to map out a plan to contain turmoil on financial markets. I know they have little chance to do so. Katharsis is under way and has to last until the air is cleared (even if I am to pay the price as well)...

Now I'll take the opportunity to say goodbye to my capital gains tax for 2011. According to Polish tax law, losses can be carried forward, so this might be a good moment for a farewell with part of possible capital gains tax for 2012. I came to terms with the losses (an equivalent of my monthly salary - could have been worse), now it's time to work out a plan how to recover from this. Free fall of stocks may last a day, two, or three, but on the markets nothing lasts forever and the direction must change, as it always happens after the slump, the subsequent reversal will be abrupt. Now the goal is to catch the right moment and win something back. In the middle and long-term I would keep away from the market or stay in or out of it only for speculative purposes. That's just money, one-third of my all savings, recovery rate is still much higher than in the case of loan to my ex-friend gambler, I'm in good health, I have a job, no major problems, no debts.

Chin up! It's just the second melt-down. I hope this time we'll learn from the crisis, because as I've repeatedly claimed, the recent one, or the ongoing so far one, has taught us nothing.

Have a good week and don't panic!

Wealth evaporating

2011-08-04T20:41:00.000+02:00

When stock markets tumbled on Blue Monday in Janaury 2008 at the news of oncoming recession I stood aside...

When Lehman Brother went bust in September 2008 and stocks nosedived, I kept away from risky assets

When within first six weeks of 2009 stock indices fell by 25% I held my money on bank deposits and was glad to be offered high interest rate.

Even in early February 2010 when a wave of panic wreaked havoc to stockholders I was out of stocks as I had managed to pull out two weeks earlier.

So why the fuck haven't I sold out stocks this f*cking time... Par for the course. I had predicted it, I knew it was bound to happen. Greece is actually bust. Other PIIGS countries are on a brink of insolvency. USA is bankrupt, despite its prime credit rating. Macroecomomic data clearly show world economy is poised at least for a slowdown, if not for a recession. Double-dip recession. It must have happened, so why the hell did I hang back on disposing of risky assets?

No, I'm not complaining because I incurred a loss equal to my monthly salary within two days. I took a chance and this was a part of the game. I'm f*cked up just because tumbling market didn't take me aback and I did nothing to protect my assets. Tough luck...

Now cool down... This is just a panic, stock prices will rebound when greed takes over from fear and then I'll jump out of the market. Let's face the truth, this is how the bear market begins. Macroeconomic data prove the standing of more and more economies, including the Polish one, is getting worse. Also stock markets follow a recurring pattern. Indices peaked a few weeks ago, then stock prices declined slowly and yesterday and today the decline turned into a full-blown waterfall, wailing wall, free fall or whatever. Then comes the correction. When the panic is gone, speculators will begin buying up "cheap" stocks, after an uptick the prices will be going down for months, until we see the trough. There will be a moment, just as two and a half years ago when everyone could only see abyss. This is when the light in the tunnel comes up...

Cheer up... :)

Not a good July for holidaymakers...

2011-07-31T15:21:00.000+02:00

At least for those who decided to spend it in Poland. July 2011 has been one of the wettest Julies in my lifetime, so those who ventured to Mazury or to the seaside did not get a chance to enjoy much sunshine and warmth. If my memory serves me right, there were very few sunny days over the passing month. And a good indicator for my memory is a frequency of watering plants in the garden. I haven’t done it for weeks and this means last weeks must have been extraordinarily wet, as the soil in my garden is rather sandy and it dries up after rainfalls immediately. At least it used to, as for some five weeks it hasn’t had any chance to return to its typical dryness again.

Excellent weather reporting site, run by a Spanish organisation Ogimet, proves my memory does serve me right. Statistics for Warsaw that exclude the last day of July give clear evidence: the minimum temperature of +8.8C was recorded on 24 July, the highest of +28.1C on 14 July, average temperature reached +18.1C, so almost one degree fewer than long-term average, but this year’s July was in turn much colder than those from last years. Last time it was similarly cold in July 2004, when temperature averaged out +17.9C. In 2007 July also wasn’t particularly hot with average temperature of +18.8C, but then we had a hot spell with temperatures hitting +35C interspersed throughout cold (as for July) snaps. This year weather hasn’t been actually changeable. Daily temperature amplitudes have stayed low, weather for most of the month has been the same, even rainfalls have been distributed evenly, and despite high precipitation there has been no big flood, but many minor inundations…

Warsaw saw two days when weather gave its inhabitants particularly rough rides. On Wednesday, 20 July, in the afternoon, a huge downpour paralysed the whole city, but those were the southern districts that got the biggest drenching. I left the office at 17:30, accompanied by two colleagues. One of them looked at the sky, seized up the clouds are predicted some little rain would set in. When I left the tram in the centre I turned back to see the colour of the sky over Mokotów and slightly aghast made my way to the underground. I had had a similar situation on 3 August 2010 and had a precise inkling of an impending downpour. I was right, the rain was so heavy that it was impossible to get out of the underground station. To the right, a road out of Metro Wilanowska bus terminus and P&R at 18:40. I waited a while for the rain to ease off, observed vehicles moving through the puddle to see where it was most shallow and finally drove home. As I was fording my way through the small pond I hit a number plate that had come off another car and a guy in fiat punto who drove in front of me broke off the front bumper of his car. The rest of the road home was all downhill… On many roads in Warsaw water was knee-deep and many cars got stuck in the puddles. I have a recipe for driving through such huge muddles – slowly, but not very – first gear, speed of some 10kmph, 1,500 revolutions per minute – the engine runs smoothly and steadily. Even though, I’m always anxious when I drive and the car encounters too much water – in 1998 during a huge downpour our car then (a one-year-old Rover 214) packed up on the middle, south-bound lane of Al. Witosa in Warsaw. Visibility was low and other drivers speeded despite pouring rain. Fortunately, none rear-ended our car. The cause of that breakdown were defective ignition coils. Last year the ignition coils packed up after two days of driving in heavy rain and through numerous puddles. Mechanics from Renault garage said they had been long overdue for replacement…

The other downpour, wreaking havoc to Warsaw on Wednesday, 27 July again laid bare how badly drained some places in Warsaw are. Heavens opened before dawn and it rained dogs and cats for a few hours. The way to work was undisrupted by any traffic impediments, except for a waterlogged street in Mysiadło. Problems began when I got off the Centrum underground station. To the right – a pavement between the entrance to underground station and W-wa Śródmieście railway station. People tried to waddle through ankle-deep water, yet few risked treading through the area where puddle was the deepest. I tried to pass it by heading towards Pałac Kultury – also to no avail – here only the higher parts of paved area weren’t flooded, but rainwater was running beneath pedestrians’ shoes.

To the right – on the same day – the lasts section of the obstacle course called ‘way to work’ – this is a pedestrian passage between the fence of second underground line construction site and Rondo Daszyńskiego. Even a small precipitation leaves one big puddle between the fence and concrete crash barrier. Pedestrian have to beware – firstly they must watch out for inconsiderate drivers who can splash water from puddles on the road on them and soak them up completely, secondly, as it was many times impossible to walk there, city authorities have put up some plastic steps to let workers from nearby office buildings to tread from one step to another and get into the other side of the puddle without having shoes and socks drenched. Unfortunately, the steps are slippery, I usually don’t risk going there and take a longer route around the whole roundabout, which is not problem-free, as the terrain is anything but flat and water flows into small basins…

I could grumble about the inclement weather, but I have to say I like it. There are some nuisances, such as huge puddles and accompanying air humidity which makes me break sweat even if the temperature is only +20C. (insertion: I wish to lodge a complaint about quality of air inside Warsaw’s public vehicles. In underground carriages and in trams it’s much hotter than outside and, to boot, close. There were years when it was always cool in the summer in the underground and riding it was a pure pleasure, why did it cease?) Actually I got used to such weather and I get on with this. It’s much, much better than unbearable heat of +30C, clear sky and drought, but on the other hand I feel sorry for the holidaymakers. I remember July 2000 when rains fell even more often, average temperature was 1.5 degrees lower and spending holidays when the weather’s so bad is not an enviable experience.

On Friday I went to town by public transport only. Commuting half way by car is convenient, but exudes a feeling of some isolation. My route was not the quickest, but I decided to take a train from Jeziorki (see classic pics of converging tracks) and this involves getting to the station by two buses (no suburban-zone ticket again), to see the progress of construction of Warsaw southern bypass. Much hasn’t changed since mid-June and a fellow SGH student Jakub Warszauer is totally right to claim he hasn’t seen a road with such unequal progress of works. On some sections the road is not ready, but actually passable, on some sections nothing has been done. May the works on junctions speed up and there will be a chance that it is opened in the second half of 2012.

Leaving the office I somehow anticipated traffic will be stationary and my guess was right – see the snap of ul. Towarowa – vehicles moving in snail’s pace in both directions. The same on all streets around, in. Al. Jerozolimskie, Al. Krakowska, ul. Puławska. This is what I call „holiday Friday afternoon jam” – traffic jams on Fridays during holidays are worse than on normal working days when schools are opened. And this makes me ponder upon the factors determining traffic density. Just look – in non-holiday period ul. Puławska in the morning between 7:00 and 7:30 a.m. is totally jammed. In the summer the traffic is not sparse, yet I make it from home to P&R Wilanowska in 20 minutes and drive no faster than 80 kmph. How many car users have to give up on taking this road to make it passable? Given that in my office I observe around 30% of staff are on holiday, some car users don’t have to drop their children to school and some people who normally commute by public transport use their cars, I estimate that the traffic volume is some 35% lower than over the school year. So let’s say if number of cars is reduced by one-third, commuting by car becomes worth considering…

Oddly enough, around an hour ago the sun chased away the clouds, but it didn’t take long, as a big storm cloud is rolled in from the west and the rain lashed down a few minutes ago.

Forecasters say August should bring more sunny days and temperatures typical for summer. Personally I’d prefer the current weather to stay on, but my sympathy for hapless holidaymakers tells me to quell these thoughts and long for some summer heat. It won’t be that bothersome as August nights are shorter and even with day-time highs of over +30C, mornings should salvage us with a cooling breeze…

Safety?

2011-07-24T21:55:00.000+02:00

Never, ever have I had such problems finding an apposite title to a post. I've sat for some ten minutes trying to come up with a sentence that would best render the purport of the posting. 'Safety' is not an ideal title, but seems to be the closest common denominator for what I want to write about.

The initial idea for this weekend's blogging dose was to lay out my take on commuting, but after reading two other posts on it, and having left comment to one of them, there' s little to add, and another topic emerged in the meantime.

Recent weeks brought a spate of tragic events. Unwarranted tragic events...

18 June 2011 - Amy Winehouse is to kick off with her concert tour in Belgrad, but is too intoxicated to perform. After an hour of wait, she comes up to the stage, gibbers something, audience hook her down. Her other concerts are cancelled. Did anyone think over a month ago that on 23 July 2011 she would be found dead in her house in London?

29 June 2011 - two home-made bombs go off in Kraków, the people are injured,
14 July 2011 - another home-made bomb explodes in Kraków, one man is injured,
17 June 2011 - fourth home-made bomb explosion in Kraków within a month, another man injured.

Anything in common? All causualties were mullitated by home-made bombs, planted in shopping bags. All casualties run businesses. Motives of the perpetrator remain in the realm of conjectures, but as the man who quite probably is behind the explosions, was detained two days ago, residents of Kraków can finally have a sigh of relief. Can they feel safe now?

10 July 2011 Sunday - a cruise boat sinks without warning in Russia. Current findings point at human errors and bad technical condition of the ship as causes of the disaster. Death toll: 119. Could it be predicted?

Norway is an atypical country. Its residents are ranked among the happiest people in the world, the country has tremendous deposits of oil and gas, revenues from extraction of natural resources are not wasted but put aside into special ageing fund that should shield the country's finances against demographic problems. Outside European Union, yet prosperous, with society famous for its tolerance and low criminality rates. Seemed to look like a heaven on earth...

22 July 2011, aftenoon - the picture of paradise breaks apart. Firstly bombs go off in government buildings in the capital of Norway. Death toll there is considerbaly low, only 7 people died and several were injured. Later this attack turned out to be just a prelude to a bigger disaster. Some two hours later, a murderer killed almost 100 participants of a youth camp organised by the ruling party. The culprit did admit his responsible and described his deeds as "gruesome but necessary". Could it be foreseen? Did this carnage express some people's hatred towards multiculturalism, permissive societies, other religions, openess, tolerance? How will it affect the trustful and tolerant people of Norway?

Still we have more questions than answers. The post is kind of messy, as each and every note written out of duty rather than inspiration. May the next week bring some revelations on me... Before this happens, come along with some musings on the topic broached...

To the one who debunked the myth

2011-07-17T12:18:00.000+02:00

I am dedicating this post to Michael Wolf, who served as Deputy Head of International Corporates at BRE Bank until late 2009.

If this posting is to prove something, it surely bears evidence that I’m a master of procrastination. Actually in everyday life I don’t tend to hang back on doing things I’m supposed to do, but this time broaching the topic of teaching foreign languages at SGH was put back and back. I hatched the idea of writing this post on 30 April 2009, so almost two years and three months ago. The only drawback of such delay is that I can’t remember as good as I would like to the event of that day. The overall picture of the issue remains unchanged, or, if it did change, things could have gone only worse.

And 30 April 2009 was the day when a conference on impact of economic crisis on German economy was held. The organiser of the event was one of student organisations focusing on economies of German-speaking countries (Studenckie Koło Naukowe Gospodarek Krajów Niemieckojęzycznych, not to grapple with the translation), so the debate was held in German. In the first part of the discussion participants had a 50-minutes long conversation on the main issue of the debate. Later students, till then being only audience to the discussion, were encouraged by moderators to ask questions. A few students pluck up courage and somehow strung together some questions in German. After one student particularly struggled to put his question into words, Mr Wolf decided to put us out of misery and offered in impeccable Polish that if we wished, we could ask questions in Polish, the he’d interpret them into German, reply in German, and once again in Polish. Thus he dealt a blow to everyone (students, teacher, organisers). The debate was meant to show students of Warsaw School of Economics can speak German and students… buggered up. In the meantime a German chap who just spent a few years in Poland brought a shame on them by showing off his fluency in Polish. But this is not the case, the case is that SGH for years has been famous for high level of teaching foreign languages. But has it deserved it.

In times of socialism, Warsaw School of Planning and Statistics (former name of SGH) was one of sparse places and the only one other than linguistics faculties, where students could learn foreign languages on a decent level. I don’t know how to define what a “decent level” is, but in a country where very few people knew foreign languages, good communication skills could be hailed as “proficiency”. Probably the bar wasn’t raised really high, and up till now no one bothered to improve the level of teaching.

The biggest myth about SGH was that it was a place where you could learn German. It was not just the opportunity to learn for free, but the whole thing was about being systemically forced to pull all-nighters to learn that language. After finishing a three-year course in German there I came to two conclusions:
1) much depends on a level of German newly admitted students stand for – many of them have a poor command of the language, so they have to work hard to catch up with the level of teaching,
2) with time, as linguistic skills of admitted students were declining, the school compromised and brought down the level of teaching. Lower entrance level meant later students would leave on a lower level.

According to curriculum, graduates of Bachelor’s studies should have a command of their first language (usually English, in my case as well) on C1 level and of their second language (usually German, in my case as well) also on C1 level. Entrance levels were set at B2 for 1st language and B1 for 2nd language. In fact my English was indeed somewhere around there, but thanks to my own work, not what I learnt at school, my German was at B2 level. The year I finished BA studies only some two or three groups were marked ‘C1’, the rest left with ‘B2’, ‘B1’, or only ‘A2’. Some students recruited in 2006 could not speak German at all. This was a consequence of flawed admission policy which allowed students who hadn’t taken Matura in German to get in.

While German is said to get the sleep off students’ eyes, English is said to be a piece of cake. For me, after the first year, the level was not ‘challenging’. During first two years I had classes with a woman who at first wanted to keep a high level, but then she loosened up. Second year was particularly not the time I could learn English intensively at school. In fifth semester I had a great teacher and I can sincerely declare I owe her a lot. I learnt a lot and in January 2009 I took my Bachelor’s exam in English. I passed it with the highest grade without lifting my little linger, which means the level was far too low! Then I had one term break in learning, when I took a CPE course in a private school. The base-case level of teaching met my expectations, but actual level was adjusted to the group, what eventually let me down… Then I decided I would never sign up for English classes at a language school. On Master’s studies I was assigned to a group run by a freaky and surely unhappy feminist. The level of her English was horrible and she gloated over other people’s command of English, which was really decent, yet far cry from proficiency. I could stand it for only one semester and put in an application for transfer to another group, run the teacher I had had classes with during the fifth semester and thank God had it approved. In the meantime I (claim to have) made a stride in English and classes with her were satisfying, but not challenging. Master’s exam was again a piece of cake, even with its allegedly worst, ‘Polish to English ad hoc translation’ part.

Learning German didn’t run that smoothly. During the first semester students were assigned to the groups according to their surnames. This means in each group there were people who barely spoke German and people fluent in it. After a fortnight authorities of SGH’s language teaching centre changed their mind and divided groups on the basis of level of students’ advancement in the language. Randomly, I came to a group taught by one of most lenient teachers at the whole school. Over six semesters, out of which during one my group was run by a stand-in (our teacher went for a sickie), I learnt some German, but mostly because I wanted to, not because systemic factors compelled me to.

In the case of German how much you learn depends on your teacher. This is a general principle, because I know people whose teachers were much more demanding and their German wasn’t better than mine. In the case of English students generally rest on laurels…

If I can advise anything (I’m talking to a brick wall, with no hopes for being heard), SGH’s authorities should:
1) not compromise even if students’ command of languages at entrance tests proves lower and lower – if students are poor they need to work harder to catch up or not go to SGH at all,
2) not cut down on number of course hours – I know teaching does cost money, but reducing learning hours by 40% over the whole course of studies will not impinge positively on grauduates’ profiles,
3) increase level of teaching English – a high school leaver should be on at least ‘upper-intermediate’ level and should be capable of reaching the provable fluency in general and business English.

English is an essential tool for almost every graduate of my school who wants to make a real career. And gone are the times when communicative English was fairly enough. At least once a week I have to read drivel written by the Poles who claim their English is at least ‘advanced’. Sometimes I make out that an author of such drivel had in mind, because I’m a Pole, sometimes I can’t because it’s too convoluted. The matter is now not about just getting by, but primarily on quality, so getting ahead.

I use English virtually every day at work, but lost touch with German at all. There were some odd situations when I had to exchange a few sentences in that language or read something, but these happened seldom. I’ve never felt a real incentive to learn German, as even in German corporations an official language is English and well-educated Germans speak English far, far better than well-educated Poles, so why bother? But recently my boss examined by German skills. I don’t know to what end, but it could be worth to think over the idea of brushing up on German…

It's weekend, time to move your a**e

2011-07-10T15:38:00.001+02:00

And in the summertime there’s no excuse for not doing so.

Back to work from holiday on Wednesday, after a short shake-down, I got back into the swings of things in the corporate world. Working in front of a computer and sitting in the same position a few hours a day is hardly ever conducive to keeping fit. Sitting in the same position on the first day turned out to be tiresome for me, and on my way back home I somehow remembered I have a card (also paid by my employer) that enables me to enter thousands of sport centres all across Poland, so why not use it… After sorting out things with the card (first one came with a spelling error in my surname, therefore invalid, had to be replaced) it was a sin to keep it unused for two months in a wallet. Financial incentive proved to be the best incentive…

I decided it would be nice to return to swimming. I used to swim a lot back in times of middle school, but at the age of 15 I was forced to give it up due to circumstances beyond my control, what in simple words means I had a severe allergy to chlorine (added to water in swimming pools for… yes, maybe you know for what reasons?) – my whole back and face were covered with rash and seared. I tried to return to swimming in pools two times and allergy relapsed. So from the beginning of my studies I would only swim in lakes during holidays, last time in July 2009. But after all, why not give it one more try? In the worst case the skin would sear for three of four days and then the pain would be gone.

I decided the best facility to visit would be the town sports centre in Piaseczno (a partner of an issuer of my card) where I can use the swimming pool totally for free. I chose to go there early on Saturday in the morning, to avoid droves of people that turn up there as soon as small hours are over. I arrived there at 6:50 a.m. and at that, for many, ungodly hour six tracks of the pool were occupied by some eight people, so I had one track for myself. The facilities haven’t changed much since the times when I used it often (and lived 50 metres from there). I swam for forty five minutes. Upon covering the distance of 150 metres I felt my heart and lungs were telling me I wasn’t fit enough. Unabashed, I carried on and, to my surprise, after swimming over one kilometre I felt much better than after 150 metres. As I was leaving, there were even fewer people around than the time I was coming in.

Until now the allergy has not made itself felt (may farewell to it be ultimate), I didn’t forget how ‘one does it’, just like in the case of cycling, swimming is a skill one doesn’t forget, just at the beginning I had some minor problems synchronising all body movement and breathing in air above water and breathing it out under water.

As I walked back home the dearth of people in the swimming pool reminded me of game theory. I wondered how many people would have to think ‘I’ll come earlier because there’ll be fewer people’ to throng the place. Apparently the temptation to sleep early on Saturday morning is much stronger than the desire to enjoy swimming without shouting children and teenagers and having to share a track with a few other people… Most people go for sleeping.

Swimming a sport has some advantages that have to be underlined:

1. you can’t get sweat,

2. most muscles work when you do it,

3. you can easily keep fit, or bring youself back fit, without running risk of overstretching yourself,

4. doesn’t require high financial outlays – of course not everyone can go to a swimming pool for free, but charges aren’t that high (ask me how much an hour costs and I’ll plead my ignorance), but compare it to skiing,

5. you can do it all year round, although in the winter when you wear a lot and have to dry your hair carefully it is a bit of a nuisance,

6. is an alternative to gym (but slower) method of body building .

Later yesterday I tidied up the garden after recent rainfalls and washed the car, so I had a very reasonable dose of physical exercise. Today in the morning I felt a bit sore thighs, arms and nape, but now the ache is gone. I planned cycling around 15 kilometres today in the morning, but the weather has put me off. Around 8:30 a.m. it was damn hot (some +25C) and air was terribly humid. I was soaking with sweat before putting my backside on the saddle, so the trip was assigned the “put back” status. As it turned out later, morning was the time when the chance to cycle could be taken. After 10:00 a.m. stormclouds set in from the west and around 11:00 a.m. rain lashed down. Clement weather doesn’t wish to come back today, but may it come the next weekend – I’d be glad to see sunshine and warmth (around +20C, no more than +25C in the warmest moment of the day).

The Inside Job - film review

2011-07-05T13:39:00.003+02:00

It starts with shots of intact Icelandic landscapes. In early 2000s the country finalised reform of its financial sector, which consisted mainly in deregulation. Until mid-2008 Iceland received glowing praises for the reform, which, as said by economists, strengthened the country’s financial stability and accelerated its economic growth. In fact deregulation of financial institution in Iceland gave rise above all to excessive credit expansion and, eventually, to an ultimate collapse of the country’s banking system.

This is just the prelude to another story told about the recent economic crisis. Clever, bright, yet not leftist and not politically involved. Some claim it does espouse leftists views on economy, but I did not discern it. If the film calls for something, it is surely not a revolution that would overturn the current unbridled capitalism, but for reverting to traditional capitalism, based on freedom, responsibility, playing by the rules and straightforward decency.

The main thesis the film sets out is that the financial industry in most developed countries has been allowed, by politicians and economists, to spiral out of control, then, by means of privatising gains and socialising losses, led to the recent crisis and went unpunished. The work, divided into five parts, explicates mechanics of events and decisions in the run-up to the crisis. I do not know if the way facts are presented is clear enough for a layman, but for me it seems the job has been done well.

Part 1: How we got there.

Filmmakers have come up with a theory that since the end of the Great Depression, until early 1980s when Ronald Reagan was sworn in as US president, the United States did not see any major economic crisis. This success, in fact untrue, since early 1970s saw oil crises, bringing about periods of stagflation, that put the era of Keynesianism to the end, is put down to the strict regulation of banking industry that prevented financial institutions from growing big. It was after Ronald Reagan took over and pressed ahead with his doctrine of Reaganomics when deregulated financial industry began to distend.

Two last decades of the 20^th century saw two financial crises triggered by deregulation – S&L crisis and the dot-com bubble. The former is thought to have been caused by excessive law liberalisation, the latter by simple lack of integrity. The film brings back commonly known, exposed by the press, examples of stock market analysts saying privately the dot-com stocks they had valuated at sky-high prices were just junk.

The end of the previous century brought also much more tie-ups between business and politics. Transfers from positions of CEOs of big investment banks to positions in state administration and the other way round became the order of the day. Number of lobbyists hired by financial industry to protect its interests soared. Belief in self-regulation of the financial industry became an officially recognised doctrine.

Part 2: The Bubble

Around 2000, deregulation was full-blown and any attempts to bring some markets under supervision met stiff resistance from financial industry, backed by officials from FED, at that time chaired by Alan Greenspan, an remorseless advocate of deregulation. One of the proposals eventually rejected around 10 years ago was the one to oversee derivatives market. Personally I’m in two minds about this. Derivatives are like axe, itself good, good when you use to it to chop wood, but evil when you use it to kill your mother-in-law. Derivatives can be used for transfer of risk, hedging and speculation. Two first purposes seem safe, but usually derivatives were used for speculation and this sparked the whole turmoil in the recent crisis.

Those who have never dwelled on the mechanism of mortgage lending in the US in early 2000s are recommended to see the part clarifying how this all happened. The same part brings up the ever-lasting issue of risk vs. return trade-off. So either you grant loans to creditworthy borrower and make safely small profits, or give risky loans and cash in more, as long as they perform. You just cannot circumvent this!

The film reminds that one of the causes of the crisis were flawed remuneration schemes that put emphasis only on performance, regardless of risks taken. Risk-adjusted salaries and loss-sharing together with profit-sharing before the crisis could have mitigated the aftermaths of the financial meltdown.

Very remarkable is the last episode of this part in which a psychologist tries to examine the specific features of a typical banker’s personality. As you would have thought this an alpha male, compulsive risk-taker, inconsiderate, acting on the spur of the moment. Such types were much desired by banks and still are, since only thanks to their bravado profits of banks in good times could be that high and banks did not spare money to finance entertainment for them…

Part 3: The Crisis

Begins with the face of Ben Bernanke and his utterance from mid-2005 in which, when interviewed by a journalist of one of US TV stations, he claimed there was very tiny risk that there was a tremendous housing bubble and found it improbable that bursting of it would plunge the whole country into a recession. Several economist claim to have warned Bernanke of the impending disaster but he would always shrug off those warnings. Deliberately?

His pronouncement coincided with the peak of the housing bubble. The film indicates a direct cause why it burst and it is strikingly simple – the housing market run out of suckers who wanted to buy houses at exorbitant prices and financial markets run out of suckers who wanted to buy securities backed by lousy mortgages.

Then comes another commendably clear explanation of how financial crisis spilled over into real economy. Finally, the makers conclude that, as always, those who suffer the most are not those guilty, but the poorest. The bailout programmes rescued big financial institutions (as an economist I realise it was cheaper to help them out than to let them go bust and the whole plan was purely pragmatic) and left millions of ordinary people unaided. This is again symbolised by empty houses, may this bleak sight serve as a symbol of human folly and may it caution others not to repeat the same mistakes.

Part 4: Accountability

What accountability? Current “crony capitalism” is based on lack of responsibility. Either I win or you lose. What a game! Fortunes of banks CEOs who brought institutions the had run on a brink of collapse are intact. Bankers got away with punishment. If someone went to jail, it was only for fraudulent activities. In 2008 and 2009 correlation between remunerations and performance and financial standing of managed institution was totally disrupted.

The film also lays bare the hypocritical take of financial industry on deregulation. Prior to the crisis they were against, in autumn of 2008 when financial tsunami was about to wipe out the whole industry they called for tighter regulation, and when in 2009 the worst was over again they returned to their previous stances.

The crisis has changed nothing. Financial institutions are bigger and more powerful than ever before.

At the end, the film outlines several tie-ups between renowned academics from best business schools in the US and the financial industry. The study of economics, as carried out by people financed by the industry and who get well-paid jobs there, is described as “corrupt” and indeed conflicts of interests are visible… Should we believe scholars then?

Part 5: Where we are now

I am thankful, again, I do not live in the United States. Level of inequality in the US society is continually increasing, while social mobility is decreasing. In Poland, by sheer hard work, it is still possible to rise from rags to riches. Many poor people in Poland still can afford to get in to university and break away from poverty. In the US it is out of reach. The US economy has made a huge shift towards innovativeness and high-tech. Jobs in new industries require good education which, due to its costs, is out of reach for more and more Americans. In Poland financial institutions are not powerful, their power is as big as it should be, maybe except for Pension Fund Managing Companies, which showed how to defend their interests during the debate on pension system earlier this year.

Filmmakers also blame the “culture of going into debts” for the crisis. Media and financial institutions, as they claim, have incited people on consumption spree, brought them into troubles and profited from their misery. Also limited access to higher education is said to be one of the reasons why people run up huge debts.

Barack Obama’s presidency turned out to be a big letdown for all those who had hoped for the CHANGE. He went back on the promises to curb excesses of the financial industry. European government somehow managed to tackle the issue, Mr Obama failed.

The film ends with a lovely conclusion: Real engineers build bridges, financial engineers build dreams. Many people dreamt of their own houses. Their dreams have turned into nightmares.

Personally I have two main reflections after watching the film.

Firstly, if so many people “declined to be interviewed for this film”, are their consciences not clear?

Secondly, I could not resist the impression that many people who agreed to be interviewed mastered lying through their teeth to perfection. This is an immensely useful ability in the contemporary world. Sadly…

Absolwent SGH

2011-06-30T12:08:00.001+02:00

I think my second academic degree obtained in the time of running this blog is not a reason to rename the address of the blog, nor to change the nickname which is quite widely recognised in the Polish-English blogosphere.

The Master's exam I somehow passed today didn't go as smoothly as the Bachelor's exam. Many think such exam is just a formality that marks the end of one studies, at Warsaw School of Economics it's not a piece of cake, but on other hand something doable and not worth the whole stress that plagues would-be graduates. The Polish word obrona, literally "defence", fits quite well the character of the exam, sometimes you have you to prove you deserve the title of MA.

This time, unlike in 2009 I didn't buy and flowers, chocolates, nor any other gifts for the examiners. After all they do the job they are paid for and don't do me any favour that they come. The supervisor of my MA thesis turned up at proverbial "eleventh hour" (three minutes before the exam) and dashed off just after the result was announced, as he hurried to go back to work, the reviewer of the thesis didn't show up at all, but sent a stand-in who didn't even bother to stir up any problems. And the examiner in economics, despite being hailed as "the nitpicker" was surprisingly lenient.

So... If you happen to drop in on the McDonald's restaurant at the corner of Marszałkowska and Świętokrzyska for a portion of french fries, please place your order cordially:

Szanowny panie magistrze, poproszę frytki

No mercy for risk-takers

2011-06-28T17:59:00.000+02:00

Sometimes you can hear a widespread opinion that financial markets resemble a casino, sometimes you are told prices of financial instruments do not reflect their fundamental values, but follow a random walk. Even if these assertions are half-truths, they must not be disregarded by anyone who wishes to be a market participant. If you enter a financial market, no matter if you buy, sell, borrow or lend, you take risks. Come to terms with it, put up, or ship out!

Over two years ago Poland witnessed sad stories of companies which speculated on currency options. In 2008 zloty strengthened, its appreciation was potentially detrimental to exporters, for who export sales would no longer be cost-effective. Banks found a solution to their problems – stricken exporters were offered an opportunity to buy currency options on sale of EUR at fixed rate, usually higher than market one. Unfortunately, such a hedge had to cost, so banks came up with a strategy called risk reversal. The rest was once described, there’s no need to repeat it.

Broadly at the same time, in 2008, Polish zloty (hereinafter PLN) hit its high against Swiss Franc (hereinafter CHF). Mortgage loans denominated in CHF were extremely popular in that time, as the housing boom was at its climax, and CHF gave the opportunity to have lower debt service costs, thanks to gradual decline of CHF/PLN exchange rate and lower interest rates in CHF. Then came the turmoil on financial markets and PLN plummeted against currencies of highly-developed countries, deemed to be safe havens. In early 2009 the trend again turned back and zloty’s value in other currencies was back increasing. 2011 saw Greek crisis and printing money in the United States, so EUR and USD began to be regarded as riskier assets, while CHF still enjoyed the status of safe haven and kept strengthening against other, also major, currencies. In July 2008 CHF/PLN rate was at its ever-time lows at around 2.00, in June 2011 it climbed near 3.40. This translates into financial standing of homeowners who have taken out loans in CHF in 2007 or first eight months of 2008 when CHF/PLN rate ranging from 2.00 to 2.50, and who now are facing a problem of mounting debts. Currently many of them have so-called negative equity (what’s the Polish for negative equity?), what means their outstanding debt is higher than the market value of their property, but this is not yet the biggest problem, since as long as they settle their monthly payments in time, banks do not raise any alerts. The bigger problem is posed by rising debt service costs. Monthly instalments, as loans, are also denominated in CHF and then converted into PLN. If a debtor’s rate is 500 CHF, holding everything else unchanged, when CHF/PLN exchange rate was 2.20, a monthly payment was 1,100 PLN. When the rate soared to 3.40, the instalment soared to 1,700 PLN. Makes a difference, doesn’t it. When loan repayments make up a small portion of a borrower’s income, a borrower stays afloat, but if a borrower could only make ends meet when CHF/PLN stood below 2.50 PLN, a borrower is distressed.

The parliamentary election is coming and politicians search for various ways of “buying” votes. Election year is usually a period when politicians from ruling parties are more eager to give away gifts and those staying as opposition have inclinations to come up with promises of gifts they will give away if they win. Some of the Polish politicians have taken a leaf out of Hungarian book and put forward to freeze the CHF/PLN rate at 2.75 for the borrowers who have taken out mortgage loans in CHF at rates lower than 2.75. The difference between the market rate and 2.75 would be paid by the state. But who is “the state”??? Yes, my reader, it’s you, it’s me, it’s every person and every company that pays taxes in Poland. And this ridiculous idea is just another bail-out. Someone has taken a loan in a foreign currency and exposed themselves to a currency risk – cool, now they have to face the music. The scenario in which CHF/PLN goes up by at least 50% should have been taken into account when the decision to take the loan was made! And banks should have prepared sensitivity analyses, but as far as I know the recommendation of Polish Financial Supervision Authority that curbed lending in foreign currencies came into force some two years too late…

This is actually not the first time, in 2009 deputy prime minister Pawlak proposed to cancel legally valid option contracts between stricken companies and banks. The idea to freeze the CHF/PLN rate is not as shockingly silly as the Pawlak’s attempt to turn back time, but will not meet my approval.

On this blog there will never, ever be any consent for bailing out risk-takers. Either you take a risk and accept the rules of the game – you win or lose, or you just don’t engage in risky transactions. If there is to be a relief for troubled borrowers, why doesn’t somebody return me let’s say 200 PLN out of almost 900 PLN I lost recently on the stock market? I knew how aggressive speculation could end up and this time the worst scenario materialised. I made a mistake and covered the loss-making position far too late, thus incurring a bigger loss, but I’m the only one to blame, and I have no right to moan, just as some people with “encumberance in Swiss currency” do. I’m sick of listening to them griping and tell them politely that if they made their bed, they have to sleep in it. And they politely shut up… Maybe I’m ruthless, but those people really have to suffer consequences of their decisions.

Keep your fingers crossed on Thursday, between 10:30 and 11:00 a.m.

Gone is the longest day

2011-06-22T21:34:00.000+02:00

A small anniversary - this is my 250th post - I'm half way towards being half way to hitting one thousand posts :)

Today a slightly "Jeziorkish" post - I strolled around my neighbourhood between 8:00 p.m. and 9 p.m. to snap some pics during the last hour before sunset. Picked out a few best and shared them here.

To the right - houses and historical (built in the first half of the nineteenth century) church in Stara Iwiczna. Typical for this time of the year in the evening sunrays illuminate northern walls of the buildings.

To the right - ul. Mleczarska which marks the border between Piaseczno and Nowa Iwiczna, here looking north from the intersection with ul. Energetyczna. Traffic not very sparse, but it's the beginning of a long weekend (I fail to notice this being burdened with learning).

To the right - a beatifully sunlit row of terraced houses by ul. Mleczarska in Piaseczno. As I passed by I didn't spot any of the dwellers in their gardens. Ain't it a sin to stay in when outdoors it's so glorious?

Again to the right - yet another view from ul. Mleczarska. The sun is blocked out by a foliage of a tree, but the last subeams manage to break through between the leaves. Magnificent? I'd be wary to gloat over this photo. The upshot of my mini-outing I present here do not really come up to my expectations...

Surprise, surprise - I'm taking you back to late winter 2010, thaw is in overdrive, big snows are melting to uncover dirt, rubbish and turds.

And broadly the same place almost 16 months later, when summer takes over. Field in the foreground is overgrown with some oak, wheat, potatoes or God knows what else, houses in the background have been completed. All in all the atmosphere of the place remains slightly dull...

I turn around to snap houses on ul. Zimowa, I'm looking west, but the magic is gone after the sun has been occluded by clouds. Rains and storms are about to set in over the night.

Curiosity - to prove how infrequently I dabble in photography some stats - today I took my 2000th snap with my compact Canon and I've used it since July 2007. Shame...

Are we in 2008?

2011-06-18T18:43:00.000+02:00

The title sounds at least weird, but this is exactly what occured to me quite recently. A few days ago I waited for my friend outside her office and I remembered the time when we met, during our internship at M********* Bank, it was in summer 2008. We looked back on those times and I put our memories into a broader, economic perspective. Then I discussed it with my colleagues at the office and they shared my observations. Three years have passed and economic situation is disturbingly similar to that in 2008. Just come to think of it...

There is a rally on commodities market, just like in 2008.
Rising prices of commodities have sent the inflation rising, just like in 2008.
Stock market has been underperforming for while, although scale of the correction is not as huge as in summer 2008 when the correction turned into a full-blown bear market.
Pace of GDP growth in developed economies is slowing down just like in 2008, there is a serious threat of double-dip recession in Japan and United States.

In 2008 world saw a spectacular turmoil on financial markets following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers bank. In 2011 we might witness a similar disaster. This time the biggest sore points are Greece and USA.

Problems of the former have kept us company from May 2010, when it transpired the country would be soon unable to roll over its debts. The default was somehow staved off with a huge bail-out package, but the issue remains unresolved and pain in the necks of European politicians and bankers is getting more and more severe. For the last 13 months Greece has been effectively a corpse, artificially kept alive by a drip of money flowing from the IMF and EU. If it hadn't been for those loans, the stricken country would have gone insolvent on 19 May 2010. This was fended off by the EU mostly because bondholders of the Greek government are mainly French and German banks, which had bought Greek gilts after collapse on sub-prime securities market, as government bonds were at that time deemed to be a risk-free investment. Those banks, if Greece defaulted on its debts would have to write off large sums of money, losses would deplete their equity, or even gobbled them up at all. To prevent a knock-on effect, governments would have to shore up capitals of those banks, but in 2011 it wouldn't be as easy as three years earlier. Then government bonds were treated as safe haven and so called "investors" were eager to help the governments meet their borrowing needs. Today, as government bonds are more or less risky assets, it would be impossible to finance another bank bail-out programme, or at least it would be hard, as potential debt buyers would require a generous rate of return. EU countries are bending over backwards to stave off the Greek disaster, but this looks unfeasible. If the next tranche of the EU / IMF funded rescue package is to be disbursed in July, Greece has to pass an austerity programme that would involve tax hikes and painful cuts in expenditures. Greeks, accustomed to welfare and bunking off, don't give a green light to the programme and the odds it will be carried out are getting lower. If Greece fails to meet requirements set by its lenders and the lenders don't give in and turn a blind eye on Greek governments fecklessness, the real bankruptcy is in the offing. And even if the next tranche is disbursed, problems of the country and its creditors won't be solved, but only postponed. Best case scenario for bondholders is soft restructuring, meaning write-downs on Greek government securities will bemade over time. And Greece itself is poised for a downfall, well-earned downfall... Grrece has long been effectively bankrupt. Everyone realises it, and everyone is afraid to speak it out.

USA are in a slightly better situation. For no apparent reason their debt is rated AAA, despite the fact the country is on its way towards a technical default. If the congress, where republicans have the majority, doesn't raise the debt ceiling by 2 August, the US government will have no money to buy back its treasury bills (by rolling over the debt), what means effective insolvency. Funnily enough, rating agency can downgrade US rating only if the debt ceiling is not increased. So if they keep on running up debts, triple-A rating would be reaffirmed. A farce? No, this is real, so the rating agencies grading US debt as prime investment are in for a disredit comparable to the one with sub-prime securities and Lehman rating. But United States have a way with its creditors that Greece doesn't have. USA can print as much money as they want and monetise their debt - this is the only way it will can be paid off, with the detriment to those hapless guys who hold US treasury bonds. I hope Barack Obama's face will adorn $10,000,000 banknotes and Ben Bernanke will deserve to look at Americans from a $100,000,000 note.

I'm looking forward to both imminent defaults. Both wretched Greece and wretched United States have worked hard to go default and there's no point in averting it. Of course many economists and probably all politicians would disagree with me and do their best to ward off the bankruptcies, as these bankruptcies would give rise to a turmoil on financial markets much bigger than the one following Lehman's collapse. Indeed, they would, but we need to suffer this stress to clean the air and finally learn the lesson from the crisis. Price for living beyond our means should finally be paid, conclusions should be drawn, bail-outs should become thing of the past, moral hazard should recede to the realm of academic discussions on economics.

But they won't...

And please don't ask me what the safe haven for money now is.
Government bonds - no longer
Stocks - will plummet
Commodities - will plummet
Bank deposits - why not, but given the current inflation profits in real terms are negative.
Gold - seems overvalued
Properties - somethign tangible, but don't expect the market value to increase in the coming years...

Won't make it before Euro 2012

2011-06-12T20:15:00.003+02:00

Not much time has passed since I wrote about privatisation flop, but BGŻ IPO is a petty failure in comparison to big delays in Polish big road construction programme.

The road-building programme in Poland is one the longest ever developed in the world. Its beginnings can be traced back to late 1970, when socialism in Poland reached its growth limits and central-planned economy began to wound down. Late 1970s were the time when construction of Berlin-Moscow motorway was due to kick off. It did get under way, but soon works ceased for next 30 years. 1980s were the time of dreadful economic misery; in 1990s few roads were built. Road construction programmes saw better days in late 2000s, but the pace of development was surely too low. Before workers coul set out to work, clerks had to get to grips with all bereaucratic procedures that drag on and on. Then local residents showed how NIMBY approach works in practise, at the very end some eco-terrorist chained themselves to trees and put back to onset of construction works.

Finally, Poland became a big construction site (to draw on official propaganda dictionary) in 2009. Bereucratic procedures were completed, National Road Construction Programme was passed in parliament, Poland received a generous cash injection from EU funds for investments in infrastucture and, last but not least (to make the post look like a school essay) there was a big motivating factor that spurred the road construction spurt - the imminent Football Championchip due in 2012. According to all plans, most expressways and motorways are due to be opened less than two months before Euro 2012.

A big stride was essential if Poland wanted to play host to one to two millions of football fans coming from all over Europe. Our infrastructure was so run-down and underdeveloped that it required a huge effort to bring the whole mess into order. It was doable, but everything was launched far too late and schedules were so demanding that a small delay could pull the house of cards down. The time for facing the truth has come.

Real problems emerged recently. The glitch in construction of stairway on the National Stadium in Warsaw will postpone its opening ceremony by a few months, but it still doesn't herald any disaster, as it will be opened a few months before the first football match kicks off. Other stadiums are currently finished and they will be completed. Worse is the case of motorways, with key section linking Łódź and Warsaw. Tenders for five sub-sections have been won by three companies, including a Chinese overseas construction company - COVEC. In May it was revealed that COVEC failed to pay its subcontractors, the Company had serious problems with liquidity and it turned out that the construction project was beyond their capacity. Works on construction sites have been suspended and now the Polish government runs negotations with the Chinese company. The infrastructure minister avowes the motorway will be 'passable' (not mistake for 'finished') in early June 2012, but there are few people who believe it...

There's no doubt this motorway is simply vital to make driving from Warsaw to Poznań bearable. Actually from Warsaw to Poznań it even is, but the other way round it is much worse. Once you get off the motorway in Stryków, the ordeal begins. I travelled there last time in April and the journey lasted over six hours - average speed was then lower than 50 kmph... Next time I'll go to that Client by train...

For me much more necessary is the southern bypass of Warsaw which should facilitate everyday commuting to work. It is also quite sure that the section from Konotopa to Airport will not be finished - progress on construction of some junctions is pitiable and there is no chance it will be caught up. Plus there are some other obstacles, such as a council block still waiting for a demolition with its dwellers waiting for an eviction. Until today I had some glimmer of hope for construction of "Elka". Today I ventured to scrutinise the progress of works on the junction of the bypass and expressway towards the airport and ul. Marynarska and all my hopes were dashed...

I ventured there in the morning. The route, taken with all possible shortcuts, was covered on bike within 35 minutes. To the right - I cycled through a path linking Mysiadło and Jeziorki, at this time of the year more and more overgrown by grass and weeds, yet still cycleable. Just after taking this shot my camera signalled its battery was low so I gave up snapping until reaching my destinantion. Later it turned out it just bluffed, just like every mobile phone does when it cries for charging long before a battery is down...

I went up ul. Nawłocka, ul. Trombity, ul. Kórnicka, ul. Baletowa and the pot-holed ul. Hołubcowa. Then turned left and trespassed onto private property (I noticed the peculiar traffic signage on my way back, I still have remorse, caused by my innate respect for other people's privacy).

Then came the inspection. To my surprise ul. Hołubcowa still cuts across the bypass. The tarmac wasn't even ripped off the local street. Looking east - looks like a road in the future. In a distance one can see a flyover that takes ul. Poloneza over the expressway.

Looking west - and I'm totally disillusioned - the tunnel under the tracks is not digged in. When peeking at the site from trains I suspected the works were much more advanced, in fact the tunnel under the tracks still waits for its time...

Seeing the site from the train has the drawback of seeing everything very shortly. Getting there on foot doesn't give the opportunity to see everything anyway. Access to most parts of the site is restricted, and this is correct, but little can be seen if one does not look from above. To the right - I suppose this is a viaduct that will take the regular S79 road towards ul. Marynarska. Or not...

I took two more photos, but as they show very little stuff, there's no point in uploading them. The whole journey wasn't as enjoyable as planned, as despite hanging around for over a quarter I couldn't even snap any plane touching down... On the site the camera did not moan about battery running low so on my way back I could indulge in snapping... To the right - ul. Hołubcowa near ul. Sztajerka - a really enchanting place, but I wouldn't dare to go there by car... Unless I was a SUV-owner... Not, this is not a reason, nor a justification to buy such ridiculously big vehicles...

The next snap shows a run-down house by ul. Baletowa. Three years ago part of the roof wasn't sunken...

Where ul. Kórnicka meets ul. Trombity I turned back and spotted billows of smoke wafting somewhere over Okęcie. Back home I checked the news in the Internet and found out another bus was ablaze...

And at the very end, another pot-holed road, ul. Nawłocka. I don't know who imposed a speed limit of 40 kmph, as I would be afraid to drive there at more than 20 kmph, unless I was very intent on doing down underchassis of a vehicle... Maybe in a winter driving here on beaten snow would be safer...

At the end of the day I've reconciled to the thought these roads won't be finished by the football championchip, I don't want them to be finished that soon because I know haste would do more harm than good. I would rather see them opened in two years and finished properly. And for June 2012 - time to think about taking holidays and staying away from Warsaw when crowds invade the capital :)

Between the generations

2011-06-05T21:48:00.000+02:00

Not uneventful weekend comes to a close. Suntan is itching the skin, temperatures stay unrelentingly high, the blog reminds about the duty of weekly dose of writing for posterity (number of comments under recent posts and google stats imply the interest in my blogging diminishes, as my lust for thoughts-sharing does). Nevertheless, I promised myself and some other people to soldier on. If the weekend is about recharging batteries, blogging can be a part of it, even if it means staring at computer screen.

Over the week there's little time for posting (I'll try to change it when days get shorter), as most of the time is filled by work; and the post is dedicated to work-life balance. The concept, growing on popularity over the last decade, became an inspiration for Gazeta Wyborcza journalist, then the link to the article was spread on facebook, through which I've found it. I've read it, read it over, taken the trouble to go through the thread of over 300 comments and I'm still left with ambiguous feelings.

The article sets out two different types of approach to work, represented, in the author's view, by two generations which clash at workplace. The author call them respectively: 'Generation X' and 'Generation Y'. Here comes the first trap - these names are misnomers. My English-speaking readers probably are familiar with sociological concepts of Generation X and Generation Y known in the Western Culture. Polish society, until 1989 shaped in the shadow of being a part of Soviet bloc, couldn't evolve as Western societies did, so these names can't apply to Poles. Maybe for that reason the author decided to redefine Generations X and Y. Brief description below:

Generation X:
- loyal,
- available for employers in their free time,
- often think that Y's are simply lazy,
- tend to work overtime and keep late hours in offices, because they want to show their commitment.

Generation Y:
- private life is more important than work,
- work mustn't collide with pastime activities - go to the gym in the morning and can't knock on at 8:00 a.m. - don't take this job,
- work is just means that leads to the end (making the most of life),
- during job interviews openly express their expectations about earnings and perks,
- prefer flexible working hours,
- fail to accept rules set by corporations,
- prefer task-based working time, rather than nine-to-five jobs.

I told about the article some of my colleagues from the office, they read it and the next day we had a short discussion during the lunch. They also ended up in two minds about what the perfect approach to work is. None of us opted directly for X nor Y, we all could discern downsides of each approach.

If you are 'X' you risk a lot. You spend a lot of time at work and little having fun. There's a shortage of time to spend recharging batteries. If work fills your time, you have less time for hobbies, for family, friends, your life begins to be empty. To fill it in, you can either break away from the treadmill or work even more and more (until you drop). Staying longer at work and working overtime (often without being paid for it) is another plague - employees are on every beck and call of an employer, ready to give up their private plans to work more.

If you are 'Y', your expectations and inflated and you should after all learn some humility. Life is not only bread and butter, but you have to earn a livelihood somehow. Coming to a job interview with exorbitant demands gives an instatnt impression that a candidate can only take and refuses to give. An 'Y' employee can be unreliable, flexible working hours may mean they will show up at work late, go home when it's convenient for them. If you drill down into comments to the article, you'll surely read lots of stories of people who encuntered typical 'Y' employees and spoke anything, but highly about them.

All things considered in our assessment of two approaches, we've leant towards 'X'. My colleauges appreciate the importance of private life, but during our talk they looked back on good time in banking (years 2002 - 2008) when salaries were high, bonuses were sky-high, deals were pulled off one after another, companies were queuing up for loans, banks were foisting loans upon companies and... they worked 60 hours per week. They said this was the price to pay for opportunity to develop and earn a lot of money. There must be a trade-off. Either you choose to work eight hours a day and knock off, earn less, don't get promotions and have more free time, or you work more and climb the leader of career. You just can't have the cake and eat it. I was also advised to make best use of those years before I get married, as the best time to learn is when one doesn't have much obligations. So what's the definition of making the most of life: having fun or working twelve hours a day? I work around up to nien and a hlaf, but only if the task require to do so, if not, I knock off at time - no need to show my manager my dedication by staying longer than necessary.

And we've come up with an explanation why with time approach to work has changed. Those people who come under "generation X' grew up some time ago, experienced austerity of late PRL, atmosphere of early capitalism and, the overacrhing point, unlike 'generation Y' weren't spoilt by abundance. Xs' parents didn't give them everything they wanted, but they had to earn it with their own sheer hard work. Ys in their childhood, teenage years and as student would usually receive everything from their parents and this has spoilt them.

Personally I have to admit, unlike my peers, I'd also rather identify with 'X' concept. The 'Y' approach smacks of selfishness and complacency. Young people who enter job markets with inflated expectations are in a way similar to trade unionists - both appear to me as spongers...

Next posting, providing no sunstroke along the way will be rather 'light' (less serious) and spiked with photoes

Privatisation flop

2011-05-29T15:28:00.001+02:00

It seems that privatisation lucky streak of PO-led government has come to an end or has just been suspended for a while. A bit of a pity, given that from 2006 to early 2009 privatisation proceedings resembled an obstacle course. Privatisation through stock exchange was brought to a halt in 2006 when PiS-led government took over and wasted several chances to sell stakes in state-owned firms above their intrinsic value (rampant bull market allowed for it). Then came the bear market of 2007-2009, when it was hard to sell anything to private investors and when market made it hard for private investors to make profits on IPOs.

The tide has turned in 2009, with the comeback of upbeat market sentiment. In the first half of 2009 the government finalised the privatisation of Coal Mine Bogdanka, one of the best-run and most profitable coal mines in Poland. IPO price was considerably low, as the bull market starting in February 2009 was still in teething phase and market participants were still wary of relapse of bear market. The government sold shares in Bogdanka for 48.00 PLN per share, while the open price on flotation day was 56.10 PLN - investors who had subscribed for the stocks could reap a profit of 17% right away or wait until October 2010 for a tender offer, under which a Czech company wanted to buy up shares of Bogdanka at the price over two times higher than IPO one. Those who earned the most on the transactions are future pensioners, as key buyers were Polish pension funds. This means that the Company is still state-owned as assets in pension funds are not owned by members of pension funds, but by the state. In the meantime the state sold (to itself, with intermediation of expensive financial instututions) another stake in Bogdanka, on 9 March 2010, for 70.50 PLN per share.

2010 saw three spectalular privatisations.

PZU was floated on Warsaw Stock Exchange on 12 May 2010. The IPO price was 312.50 PLN per share, when the market opened, stocks were traded for 349 PLN, the same day market closed at around 360 PLN. Investors, including me, enjoyed returns of 12 - 16%. This was the first privatisation run as part of 'civic shareholding' (akcjonariat obywatelski) programme. Number of stocks for which a single investor could subscribe was capped at 30 (what gave an equivalent of circa 10,000 PLN) and stocks were sold with modest discount, to let ordinary people earn. PZU IPO, mostly after years of squabbling with Eureko was perceived as a great success. Currently PZU stocks cost around 390 PLN

Tauron Polska Energia stocks were first traded on 30 June 2010. This time there was a dent on the government's offer. The initial issue price of 6.30 PLN was too high for institutional investors and the stocks were eventually sold for 5.13 PLN. The flotation day was, coincidentally, the day when the biggest market correction in 2010 hit its trough and open price was no higher and no lower than 5.13 PLN. Profits weren't reaped, but according to analysts' valuations the Company was much undervalued. I also bought these shares in IPO and first quotations were a big let-down for me. My exit strategy was to buy up some more stocks, if the price went down and I followed out my plan. A few months later Tauron stock began to increase in price and within six months fetched a return of 35%. Patience was rewarded. In 2011 the price dropped, I began selling and buying back stocks with a view to earn more. Currently Tauron stocks are traded for around 6.60 PLN, not much below their ever-time high of 6.92 PLN from 17 December 2010 when they were becoming a component of WIG20.

Warsaw Stock Exchange went public in November 2010. IPO price was 43.00 PLN and was deemed to be overvalued. Despite this, demand on WSE shares was record-high and with open price on 9 November 2010 at 50.75 profits for a private investor reached 18%. Not bad. I didn't subscribe, as I thought the price was too high and I was wrong. Since then WSE stock price hit its low of around 44 PLN and high of 54 PLN and still seems to me overvalued. But after all this means the government has made a good deal on behalf of taxpayers. Currenly you can buy one share of WSE for around 52 PLN.

Over 2010 the PO-led government has established an excellent track record in terms of privatisation through stock exchange. But one success following another increases risk of complacency and hubris. Perils wait just round the corner and treasury minister Aleksander Grad had to learn a hard lesson this year.

One of two big IPO planned for 2011 were Bank BGŻ and Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa. The former has already been floated, the latter is due to become public in July.

First step of Bank BGŻ hapless IPO was its issue price of 90 PLN, with P/E at 34x. Such high price-earnings ratio implied the bank was much overvalued. Demand from private investors was not as high as in any of three big offers in 2010, but was high enough to cover the whole tranche of stocks earmarked for them. Investment and pension funds categorically refused to buy BGŻ stocks at such sky-high price and as a result the issue price had to be brought down to 60 PLN, much closer to the intrinsic value of these shares. The state had planned to raise 1.44 billion PLN from sale of 37% stake in BGŻ, but eventually it had to make do with 344 million PLN from sale of 12% of shares. Minister Grad now waits until the bank's value gets higher (this may take some time) and thinks hard how to bend over backwards to meet privatisation proceeds targets for 2011. In the meantime it was revealed that some time ago Rabobank, the majority shareholder of BGŻ offered the state 74 PLN for one share of BGŻ - 14 PLN per share more than the market wanted to pay, plus savings on IPO costs. The Polish adage saying that "an avaricious man loses twice" proved right. Shares of BGŻ were floated last Friday. Individual investors could subscribe for 120 shares for 90 PLN each, and eventually were assigned 20 shares per 60 PLN each. With opening price of 62.50 PLN one could earn 50 PLN minus transaction costs and capital gains tax. Lovely... I still hold 20 shares, my strategy on what to do with those security is rather unclear, but today as I was passing by a BGŻ branch I felt like an owner.

Despite this I'm looking forward to next IPO of Jatrzębska Spółka Węglowa, which may be hampered by demands of brazen trade unionists (read spongers) from the Company. May those deals be brought off wisely - I make this wish both as a taxpayer and as an investor, or to make no bones, a speculator.

In praise of free speech.

2011-05-22T15:05:00.002+02:00

Six o'clock in the morning. Functionaries of Internal Security Agency break down the door and trespass onto a flat inhabited by 25-year-old chap. Are we back in 2006 or 2007 when various people were arrested in the spotlight (some of them have never been proven guilty and acquited)? No, we are in luminuous times when enlighted Civic Platform is in power and civic freedoms are thriving. This statement was borne out on Tuesday when a guy who ran antykomor.pl site had his computer forfeited by secret services, just because he had run a website on which he had ridiculed president Komorowski.

From 2005 several websites were set up with just one goal - to make laugh of late president Kaczynski and his brother who wielded power as prime minister. Politicians of PiS and believers of the sturdy party expressed their outrage at the fact ordinary people wanted to make fun of clunky twins. Usually the key explanation was that all those people couldn't do it off their own bat and must have been inspired by an overarching, invisible force, called the System.

Times have changed. Since the Smolensk disaster it is no longer passe to admit to support Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his party. A group of people who declare they used to be drowned out for years can easily have their say. Antykomor was created in that time, in the surge of anti-PO movement. He did what many people had done during president Kaczynski's term. Let's face it - the current and the previous president have both been mediocre and no wonder such websites spring up. It is quite natural in the civic society, in which people have to have a right to give vent to their emotions.

I first heard about the site after its closure, so google cache memory was my only source of information on the content of antykomor.pl. I have to say I didn't find anything what would justify stepping into Antykomor's author's flat early in the morning, maybe except one photomontage on which the president appears to be compelling a drunk girl to do him a blow job.

This one was below the belt, but the guy should be wise enough to know there are boundaries that must not be overstepped. This still doesn't justify the forfeiture of computer, he could only be requested to delete offensive content and materials he hadn't had copyrights to.

Officiousness is worse than fascism. After the hapless action PiS scores another point and PO slides down on a slippery slope it has been for months of its feckless rule. Who the hell hatched the idea of detaining author of such website? It is absolutely normal in mature democracies that some people are dissatisfied with the politicians in charge of their countries and ridicule them. Think about all mockery at Nicholas Sarkozy, George W. Bush or Barack Obama. I think the article 135, paragraph 2 of Polish penal code which defines punishment for insulting the president (up to 3 years of imprisonment) should be overruled. Why should a president enjoy any special protection? He indeed is a symbol and deserves respect, but other people also deserve respect. So what's the difference between liability for insulting a president and insulting a prime minister. Should only the former be punished? Wasn't the legislator a bit ticklish? Isn't the situation in Poland ludicrous - people who accuse state officials of high treason and felonies go unpunished and the guy who pokes fun at president's numerous missteps has to play host to Internal Security Agents?

I was okay with making fun of president Kaczynski and I am okay with ridiculing president Komorowski (he gives us ample reasons for doing so) and I will be okay if any other president is mocked at, of course within reason, what means with offensive remarks, insults and lies. I was counting down days till the end of Lech Kaczynski's presidency, so why not do same with Komorowski?

Judgement day coming soon

2011-05-19T21:06:00.003+02:00

An odd posting on a working day, prompted by the news about the upcoming worldwide disaster due this Saturday. We have survived many ends of the world, for the past few years there haven't been many such events. The most popular until now was the Mayan date of the last day, 21 December 2012, but recently it has been superseded by the closer one, 21 May 2011, as predicted by weird broadcaster and preacher Harold Camping, aged 89. The Family Radio he runs unremittingly spreads the news about the imminent judgement day and those prophecies have also reached Poland. The nearest billboard informing about the event can be found in Warszawa Jeziorki, near ul. Karczunkowska.

It says the Bible certifies it and we should cry out to God for mercy. For some of us it's too late...

I actually thought the news about such rare events as ends of the world are niche products for bored to death geeks, but the reality has taken me aback. Not only tabloids such as Fakt and Super Express informed about the event, but the sensation was also picked up up by System-controlled TVN24 and Gazeta Wyborcza... Moreover I heard people discussing the issue at work (another upside of open plans) and in a train. Two days ago I logged in to facebook and was hit by a question...

Finding myself totally unable to plump for any option I didn't tick any way of spending the time left until the end of the world.

Whenever I hear about such self-styled prophets, I ask myself what will they say, if nothing happens. Family Radio provides me with the answer...

What if May 21 ends and nothing occurs?

The Biblical evidence is too overwhelming and specific to be wrong. Christ's people can look with great confidence to this date because God promises His "beloved" He will not come upon them as a thief in the night.

God in His mercy has revealed the vital information needed to know the day. Judgment Day on May 21, 2011 will occur because the bible declares it. Anyone whom God has not saved will arrive at that day with no hope for salvation. God warns simply the "door will be shut."

I'm looking forward to seeing what they say when indeed nothing occurs. I've come up with a few versions:

a) someone tampered with the calendar and 21 May 2011 was not 21 May 2011,

b) the God gave us another chance,

c) we have made a minor error in our calculations, but beware, because the end is nigh.

Now a simple explanation why there should be no end of the world on Saturday. The end of the world will hit out of the blue, not when people expect it.

At the end of the day, whenever I hear such prophecies I'm afraid one day the mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy may work. An idiot may try to fulfil the destiny, press some red button, launch a nuclear missile or do something equally dangerous...

Beware... of false prophets...

Longevity

2011-05-15T11:59:00.001+02:00

My paternal grandfather turns 85 this Tuesday. Maybe it's not yet a grand old age (although far longer than average lifespan), but there's a chance that he makes it to the next round, 90th, anniversary. He'd been in a very good health until the age of 80, then he had several attacks of epilepsy and some other problems with general health. This year, after passing out unexpectedly he spent a few days in a hospital. He still cleans up the house and does the shopping, mentally he's fit enough to do the household chores unaided.

His birthday made me think a bit of the determinants of length of a human life. I've even drawn up a short list of factors.

1. Genes - probably the most meaningful factor. Length of our life, no accidents permitting is written in the genes at the moment of birth. Some are predestined to live 90 years, some have to die 25 years earlier. Genes of longevity may be passed on to next generations. In my family the fateful age was 87. Three out of seven of my great-grandparents, whose dates of deaths are known, died aged 87, my maternal grandfather also passed away aged 87 (he had predicted it seven years earlier...).

2. Resilience - stronger people, who don't give up, bear up what fate brings should live longer.

3. Temper - patient, kind-hearted, joyful people are more likely to live longer than aggressive and hot-tempered ones.

4. Social activities - the more friends you have, the better your relationships with your family are, the more time you spend with other people (nad enjoy it), the longer you should stay on this earth.

5. Sport - people who do some sports and have a daily, or at least weekly dose of physical exercise, should stay fit longer and hence the probability that they die from heart attack should decrease...

6. Train your brain - I'm not sure if it can extend life, but for sure if brainteasers, crosswords and books keep you company, risk of senility in the old age should go down.

7. Stress - here the correlation is negative. The more stressful life you lead, the shorter might it be...

8. Happiness - works just as in the case of social activities.

9. Place of residence - generally refers to factors other than listed above. On where you live depends how well-equipped hospitals are, how well-trained doctors are and how easy access to medicines is.

10. Wealth - sadly. Well-off people can afford to undergo costly therapies that can save their or their relatives' lives. Not everyone can.

11. Awareness of health - look at the example of breast cancer prevention. Those women who suffer from it usually were oblivious of the possibility to have their breast examined each three years or were afraid of the very examination. Results are dire.

12. Smoking, drinking, other addictions - it is said that each smoked cigarette shortens your life by 18 minutes. I've never had a cigarette in my mouth in my life but I still wonder how long would live those people who died aged over 100 and smoked several cigarettes a day over decades. In small doses alcohol also should not hamper one's health.

Anything to add to that list?

Actually if the factors above were that very crucial, my paternal grandparents, both aged 85, married to each other for over 62 years, would not be predestined to live that long. So is everything written in the genes? Or somewhere else?

At the very end of this short (again, but easier to digest) post a small reflection. It is said, in the context of imminent collapse of pension systems, that people will live longer and longer. Is it so certain. "Live fast, die young" - look at young yuppies who break their backs to make roaring careers and make lots money and ask yourself, if they'll be able to carry on like this for 40 years. Imagine a man working 60 hours a week for four decades when he retires in his sixties. What will be left? Who will be left?

Provocative paragraph, but if it's a bit controversial, it suits the blog very well :)

Taxation and justice - again

2011-05-08T21:25:00.000+02:00

Prompted by yesterday's discussion with a fellow blogger on the donation tax, I settled on revisiting the topic of justice in taxation, once brought up here... This time the aspect of effectiveness will not be touched upon, but instead I will try to focus on justice.

From my short research done while cycling around I conclude there are four main bases of taxation.

1. The mere being or existence, as in the case of poll tax. The concept can be traced back to middle ages and assumes that everyone should pay the same amount of tax, regardless of their income and wealth. Today this form of taxation is generally deemed to be unfair, as people's and entities' ability to bear the burden of taxation varies, depending on their income or wealth, and is hardly ever used by local or state governments to raise revenues.

2. Consumption, with the most popular VAT. I have to say I would struggle to provide you with a rationale of this form of taxation, but it surely can be categorised as an effective way of collecting money, as value added tax, or sales tax is hard to avoid. When it comes to justice, here it is quite possible to adjust the tax rate to taxpayers' ability to pay taxes to their capacity to bear tax burdens. Basic goods, such as bread, diary products, medicines, utility services can be taxed at lower rate, while cars, petrol, foreign trips and other luxurious goods can be taxed at the higher rate, as their consumers can afford to spend more on them. The state can tamper with VAT rates to affect the structure of consumption, e.g. merit goods may have a low tax rate levied, while demerit goods will have not only higher VAT rate, but also another tax, especially for sinners, imposed. The tool is effective and no wonder Polish government, when at a pinch, decided to raise VAT rather than income taxes.

3. Wealth. I don't even know if there is a Polish equivalent of 'wealth tax', as this tax does not function in Poland at all. This form gives much room for tax avoidance, as the wealthiest people would move their assets to tax havens. The concept behind this is that the well-off should somehow share their wealth with the poorer. I am generally against it, as people should be taxed as they are coming into wealth, not as they are already wealthy. A proper property tax is not used in Poland. I would be glad to see it levied, as it would bring prices on property market into balance. Prices would surely fall and better reflect real values or properties.

4. Income. The broadest issue, so I'll take the liberty of omitting corporate taxes and focus on four forms of personal taxes.

A) Personal income tax. It is generally accepted that flat and progressive taxes are said to be most fair. Tax rates and brackets are supplemented with tax deductibes items and tax allowances. My own take on the best personal tax system has been laid out in the post linked at the beginning and has not changed since then.

B) Capital gains tax. Is a standard in all civilised countries. There have been proposals to scrap it in Poland, as when it had been introduced in 2001 it had been meant to be a temporary measure to bring people on spending in economic slowdown, then in stayed on. My sense of justice incites me to a strong disapproval when I hear proposals to lift it; for two reasons. Firstly, I live in an area when lots of ex-farmers sold their plots of land for millions of zlotys in 1990s and 2000s and now they don't have to go to work every day and toil away nine hours a day as I do, but they sit on their arses and live off interest of the money their got from selling the land. If my work was taxed and their income not, that would be despicable. Secondly, I am a stock market speculator. With a bit of knowledge and luck it might be a great way to earn (or lose) quickly a lot of money without much effort. I would be a slap on the faces of all hard-working people, if I and the likes of me didn't have to pay tax on our 'murky dealings'. The main argument agianst capital gains tax is that it creates a 'double taxation', which is wrong, because you once earn some money and you pay income tax, then you invest that money and pay tax only on the interest or gains you earn.

C) Inheritance tax. The government of Law and Justice lifted this form of tax for the closest relatives of the deceased. From my point of view, this wasn't a fairly good decision. An inheritance is a windfall, your wealth increases, although you usually haven't put any effort into working for it. Therefore I think this tax should be levied even on the closest relatives, but they should pay a lower rate than people who have been bequeathed something by a person from outside their family.

D) Donation tax. If you are given some money, property or anything that has a significant value for free, this is also a windfall. As in the case of inheritance tax, this is also a form of coming into some wealth without making an effort. In Poland closest relatives are also exempted from donation tax payments. It is not fair actually, often children get money, flats or cars from their parents, but they haven't contributed to creation of such wealth. This means children form well-off families are better-off in comparison to those who have to accumulate their wealth on their own. Thank God donations from third parties are taxed, but taxation rates are in Poland lower or similar to the ones on income taxes. In my opinion they should be higher, as those who put effort into coming into wealth, should be tax at lower rates than ones who simply get the money.

Voices of disagreement are strongly encouraged! Nothing does as good as exchange of opinions!

“Blasphemies” on beatification day

2011-05-01T14:30:00.001+02:00

The word in the post title to be taken with a pinch of salt, but this piece is an attempt to swim against the tide on a day when events in Rome make almost all headlines in Poland and only some abroad.

Brits had their day of celebrations on Friday, when the royal wedding took place, Poles are having their day today, when John Paul II, the Pope they love(d) is officially declared blessed. Both events spurred a sort of craze in both nations, although much different they were, due to different character of events, in both countries there are people who have not been afflicted with it.

The beatification gives rise to some discussions about self-censorship. In Poland it is not officially forbidden to criticise the late Pope, but journalists somehow tend to refrain from it. In the week preceding the beatification New York Times published an article in which it explored all pros and cons of the decision to beatify Karol Wojtyła very short after his death and called into question whether he deserved to be beatified at all.

Pope’s critics, usually from outside the Catholic Church, come up with two reasons why John Paul II does not deserve to be declared blessed.
Firstly, for not moving the Church with the times. I actually do not understand this argument. The Church is an independent organisation, membership to which is not obligatory, those who want to join it and stay in have to accept the rules it sets. The Church is an exclusive, religious organisation and hence its rules should be strict to allow it to maintain its authority. And after all, John Paul II changed many papal customs, Catholic Church has been moving with the times, but has always lagged behind it.
Secondly, for covering-up sexual child abuse scandals. And here opponents score a point. Some say the Pope actually did not know much about the abuse cases as flow of information was filtered by the bishops from his administration. Nonetheless, this problem properly. It is not fair, given that all people should be equal before law. Secular paedophiles appear before courts, are sentenced, then go to jail and their “atonement”, meted out by fellow prisoners is anything but pleasant. Priests guilty of child abuse have usually been protected within the Church…

Leaving aside the controversial topics, let’s move on to more down-to-earth issues. I, as an unreligious, have not been made ponder upon the very Karol Wojtyła, but upon his teachings, heritage Catholics all over the world had received from him, but not surely taken it in…

Now what do we have left in Poland? 40% of people regularly going to church on Sundays? Unreflective religiousness, meaning people practise because they have been taught to practise, not necessarily out of a deeper need? Drunk driving? Tax evasion (which is a form of theft)? Illegally made out sick leaves for healthy people that costs Polish state and employers millions of zlotys every months? Mistrust? Envy? Hostility? Malice? People who can’t see further than the end of their own nose? Aggression in public life and between common people? Claims of moral superiority made by the most ardent Catholics? Accusing fellow men of treason without any substantial evidence?

Overwhelming hypocrisy, the biggest cancer of Polish Catholicism? Once some old ladies cross the doorstep of their church they backbite their neighbours. Once some men step out of the same church they go to a nearby inn, knock back a few bottles of beer, sit behind the wheel and drive home. Youngsters declare they love John Paul II and then go for a party, put on condoms and shag one another? Am I exaggerating? No, I have seen each of the situations described above at least once in my life…

More and more it occurs to me that, to paraphrase a popular quotation from Polish film “Kiler”, Polacy zrobili sobie z dziesięciu przykazań spółkę z ograniczoną odpowiedzialnością (Poles have made the Decalogue a limited partnership). OK, they may go by the rules set by the Church and the Pope who is in charge of it, but only to the extent to which it is convenient for them. They are Catholics, they have some rules to follow, but when it comes to pre-marital sex, or use of contraception techniques, the same rules are somehow waived. Isn’t it peculiar?

Religion, in Poland particularly bound with Polishness in the history, is now, owing to the past, treated instrumentally. A good Pole and a god patriot should, according to old beliefs, be a catholic. Last August, prompted by my colleague (a practising, yet very moderate Catholic) I mused about what John Paul II felt when he watched goings-on outside the presidential palace in August 2010? What did the late Pope feel when religious symbols when used for strictly political ends? What does the now Blessed Karol Wojtyła feel when he looks from above on politicians who cite his teachings to prove their moral superiority and then violently attack their political opponents, not without resorting to lies and manipulations?

My counter-point is that you don’t have to be religious to be a decent man. If we can draw any lesson from this day, do commemorate Pope in a different way than it has been done. Heritage of John Paul II should not consists in monuments, roundabouts named after him or carpets with his face weaved on them and sold during harvest festivals. Real heritage consists in following the most universal teachings in every day lives.

Pay taxes, don’t shirk work, have courage to admit you were wrong and make up for it, help your fellow men in need, be honest, reliable, dependable, keep your promises, have respect for other people, keep calm, take care of public goods, don’t sponge on the state (= on fellow taxpayers), be fair, always tell the truth, take responsibility for your deeds, don’t take credit for other people’s merits… The list could be much longer, but… I am asking too much??? If all people acted like this, life would be much, much better…

And now what is left? Quite often still anger and shame…

Student SGH vs. omnipotent bureaucracy – three short stories.

2011-04-25T10:04:00.003+02:00

All presented in a bit weird way – as timelines…

Case 1 – Master’s thesis

September 2009 – I took a decision to complete all courses on Master’s studies within three semesters, rather than within four, as it is was set out in curriculum of studies.

July 2010 – To achieve the goal I began writing my Master’s thesis, with a view to submit it as early as possible and part company with my ignoble school.

12 October 2010 – I submitted a Master’s seminar application in the student office (dziekanat). I had a choice either to take two seminars in one semester (technically feasible) or do the first part of the seminar over the third semester and the second over the fourth semester. I opted for the latter to give myself a safety buffer in case I couldn’t make it in the allotted time, having in mind that it would put back a date of my Master’s exam.

5 January 2011 – I made it. Master’s thesis was prepared and approved by the supervisor.

16 February 2011 – I visited the student office to submit the Master’s seminar application for the second semester. Rules and regulations of studying clearly stipulate a student is obliged to do this within first two weeks of each semester. Despite this I was rebuffed and told not to show up there before I got the credit for the previous semester… Procedures clashed with the overwhelming system…

11 March 2011 – Having logged in to my account in SGH’s IT system I found out I had become a fourth semester student…

16 March 2011 – I finally submitted the hapless application, but was instructed not to put my thesis through an anti-plagiarism system, as, according to student office worker, the system was not ready to deal with theses uploaded by last semester student. I was also told to do this next week. Slightly bemused I postponed the process of checking if I wasn’t a copycat.

23 March 2011 – Same old story. Again I was ordered to wait for one more week.

30 March 2011 – I couldn’t leave the office earlier, so around midday I simply called the student office. I talked with another worker who told me I had been misinformed and the system had always been operational. Delay was then two weeks (or six weeks, if I was to count in the delay in accepting Master’s seminar applications)

31 April 2011 – I waded through all regulations concerning submitting Master’s thesis. One of quite bizarre ones was that it was not the student whose duty was to submit the thesis and several attachments by the supervisor in the flesh. I contacted the supervisor and asked him when he could go with me to the student office and handle all formalities. The only possible date was next Monday, around midday.

1 April 2011 – I took a day off at work (tapping my paid holidays) to wrangle with my beloved school.

2 April 2011 – I put the thesis through anti-plagiarism system, printed out the thesis and dozens of attachments, had my thesis bound, arranged a meeting with my supervisor.

4 April 2011 – I went to my supervisor’s work, where he were supposed to meet, unfortunately he couldn’t go out of the office, so he signed all documents and wrote at the back of an envelope a power of attorney for me to submit the thesis and attachments on his behalf. He pointed out the requirement that the supervisor was to do the job was virtually dead. Half an hour later, at school, he was proved wrong. The school followed all procedures… The whole day went down the drain.

13 April 2011 – My supervisor and I finally made it to the student office together and submitted the thesis and all documents. A student office worker, the one who had misinformed me, refused to confirm the receipt of the thesis and attachments and told us not to change workings of her always perfect office. I was also rebuked for reproaching the office over being open only three hours a day in hours inconvenient for working students – I was told to choose either to work and study on weekends or to quit the job and study in day-time mode.

Since then I have received credit for my Master’s seminar and my thesis has been handed over to a reviewer. According to the regulations, he has one month to review the thesis. If he doesn’t he won’t be penalised in any way. And this is the worst – for such misconduct or neglect of duties people should be fined. A fine of 1,000 PLN would make them meet deadlines… Of course now I don’t know when the reviewed thesis will be returned to student office and when the date of final exam will be set, but somehow I don’t hope for the best…

Cases 2 – Driving licence

9 May 2006 – My first medical check-up. A doctor came to a driving school, charged 100 PLN, asked if I was healthy and checked my eyesight. My glasses then weren’t powerful enough and I was prescribed a temporary driving licence, valid five years.

January 2011 – my driving licence was to expire on 9 May 2011 so I took first steps to find out what to do to have it prolonged. I had to do a medical check-up and obtain a doctor’s certificate with no counter-indications for driving. In a health centre I was told to wait until I got a health-care package from my employer to bring down the costs…

14 April 2011 – a real struggle began. I made several call to several health centres. In each I was told to do a different check-up, to visit different doctors, some even wanted to send me to a psychiatrist. I tried to do the whole thing at work and one colleague from different department, who overheard to whole conversation (another ‘advantage’ of open plans) told me to go to a doctor from a chain of health centres at which my bank purchased packages for employees. She said that doctor did the whole job even in transport department of my gmina, so what she said sounded like rubbish. Eventually, after find it out which examination I needed to have done, I was left with the choice either to go to a private health centre 500 metres near my house or to have the check-up in Warsaw. In both centres prices were prohibitive and nothing was included in my package. The case was, however, that according to new transport law I had to have level of glucose in my blood checked and this had to be done on empty stomach. The health centre in Warsaw did it only in the afternoon, so I plumped for early hours on Thursday, 21 April and took another paid day off.

21 April 2011 – I reported to the nearby health centre. On the door I saw the sticker advertising medical services provided in partnership with the chain of health centres I have my health care package with. To my surprise two out of three check-ups were covered by my employer and I only had to pay 70 PLN instead of 149 PLN. One nice surprise. I had my driving licence prolonged by ten years. In the transport department things went on quite smoothly, after queuing up for some forty minutes. After forking out 154 PLN and tapping a day off I wait for a new driving licence, which I won’t probably pick up before my old one expires, but this is really a minor issue.

Case 3 – Cyfrowy Polsat (this one dedicated to Scatts)

1 October 2009 – after terminating the contract on Neostrada we bought a subscription to Play Online Mobile Internet and wished it delivered a better service than Tepsa…

2010 – Play Online sucked… Couldn’t wait to the end of the contract. They declared the maximum connection speed would be 1 Mbps. Actual speed reached in peak hours around 60 kbps, as much as on my first dial-up modem in 2001…

March 2011 – I researched mobile operators’ mobile internet offers. I ruled out Play out of hand, then what three main mobile operators offered didn’t seem interesting and in the light of the fact their networks were already congested even off-putting. Once I found a leaflet advertising Cyfrowy Polsat, checked their page in the internet and settled on their plan 3 GB + 9 GB for 50 PLN. I told about it my parents and my father, after he heard the name of our new provider, immediately hatched the idea of buying the internet connection bundled with satellite television.

2 April 2011 – my father and I set off to the nearest shop of Cyfrowy Polsat in Piaseczno. It was supposed to be open on Saturday from 9:00 am. We arrived there at five past nine and it was closed. We hung around for 40 minutes and the owner failed to turn up. I called CP’s customer service and heard they couldn’t help it as this was an outlet run under franchise contract and the closure was its owner’s business… Back home I found the old leaflet which contained the number of CP’s sales representative. He agreed to visit us at home and came around some two hours later. A man in his 50’s seemed to have had problems finding a better job and was forced to foist CP upon people. Clunky but honest, he didn’t persuade us to buy a mobile phone with CP, nor to order extra TV packages. Having acquainted with offer we plumped for internet + sat TV bundle and placed an order. The rep was to hand over the order to a technician who would be supposed to contact us and deliver a satellite dish, a decoder and internet devices.

14 April 2011 – till then nobody got in touch with us. My father called the rep, who said he had forgotten about the order, but promised to mend his ways.

15 April 2011 – the technician called and said he would turn up with equipment and contracts the other day. He told us to wait all day long for him because he didn’t knew when he would be able to come…

16 April 2011 – a quarter before nine the technician called to let us know he would be in ten minutes. My father told firmly the technician and his assistant would start installing the dish only after he finished reading the contract. Ten minutes upon their arrival technician were drilling holes in the wall of our house and my father handed me the contract and attachments to read it, as he didn’t… The contract included two factual errors (wrong prices), three understatements and lacked all attachments. I called the customer service of CP, learnt they have three lines, one for TV subscribers, one for internet and mobile phone subscribers and one for potential clients. Having talked to seven consultants after forty minutes I established I was right to have deemed the contract flawed. In the meantime the technician mistook the cardinal points and drilled four holes in the western wall of our house, which turned out not to be the southern wall. The holes remained but Mr technician did not give up and decided to fix the satellite dish to the existing aerial mast with terrestrial TV and radio aerials. He accidentally dismantled my FM aerial which provided excellent signal to my Hi-fi system, my father didn’t bother because the thought this aerial was totally superfluous. Finally we ended up with not signed contracts, satellite dish hung and wires attached to the outer wall and pulled into the drawing room. An hour after the technician left wires came off the wall. The rest of the day was spent on fixing the wire back to the wall and laying it under baseboards in the drawing room.

21 April 2011 – they came again, installed everything and now it even works.

Internet connection, compared to Play Online works like a miracle, TV is OK, hope further dealings with customer service will not be a pain in the neck…

Not the country for disadvantaged people

2011-04-21T19:06:00.000+02:00

I've promised to post today, so I'm doing this, but just not to go back on the promise. Unfortunately I spent almost the whole day running errands with doctors. I had taken the day off to sort out the prolongation of my driving licence (expires on 9 May), but to boot I caught a cold (or rather developed one not properly cured from the beginning of April) during a business trip and earlier in the office and had to visit a GP...

And here it came to be a surprise. Normally it is actually very hard to make an immediate appointment with a doctor when you are in urgent need, if the situation is really bad you have to fork out around 100 PLN for a private visit. Many Poles cannot afford to pay so much, but eventually do, as health is more important than other consumption expenditures. My parents ended up shelling out 100 PLN for a home visit in October last year when my fever surged to +39.5C...

And those who can afford to pay... Get it for free, not because they are insured in national health service system, but because, as I, also have health care package bought by their employers. Waving my health insurance card today allowed me to consult a doctor immediately, while other, worse-off patients were waiting... I can't say I feel well about this. Is it fair that a private health centre which has contracts both with state-run health insurers and with private companies puts well-off employees of well-off private companies in a privileged position against ordinary people? Does it square with your sense of justice?

Or maybe it is fair because my employer has pulled down walls and in open plans germs find no obstacles (walls and doors) to fly around, forty colleagues around me cough and sneeze, everyone wants to have a bit of fresh air and open windows create draughts?

Over, the post about struggling with Polish bereaucracy due around Easter Monday, I'm going to bed to heat myself up and recuperate (needless to say I refused to take a sick leave, as I need to pull off a critically important deal by Tuesday at the latest).

Have a good Easter...

Perfect - Autobiografia - the third stab at it

2011-04-15T19:28:00.001+02:00

These days, where ordinary pulp stands for popular music it's good to look back on the days I can't even remember and reminesce the timeless, magnificent songs. Those with lofty lyrics, carrying several messages between the lines, telling remarkable stories, memorable, embedded in deeper cultural or historical context, are particlarly hard to translate into a foreign language.

One of such songs is Autobiografia, by Perfect. The song was released in 1982, in the dead of martial law and tells a story of one man's life, set in the gloom and hopelessness of socialist Poland.

I've long planned to translate it into English. The task was to be particularly difficult, a few times I set out to do it, to no avail. Just a few days ago I discovered other English-language bloggers had read my mind and had done the job. Pacze Moj dedicated two posts, with two different translations, one more literal, the other more poetical. Then it turned out Pan Steeva had another try on it. As native speakers they've done a great job, I, as a Pole, would not be capable of. But after all I read Pan Steeva's version and decided to enhance it a little bit.

The final translation below (copyrights generally attibuted to Pacze Moj, Pan Steeva and Student SGH).

I was only ten:

We first heard about him then;

In my basement was our club.

My pal's radio played:

Then 'Blue Suede Shoes' I first heard

And I couldn't sleep that night.

Wind of change would blow

The imprisoned were let go

Once again, we laughed and joked.

Café’s buzzing scene,

Like tornadoes, jazz blew clean:

Just to play

My wish was.

Father, God knows where

Those days he would go astray.

Me? My finger nail came off,

Shavings out of picks

Played the guitar, learnt the tricks.

And I found the thrill of sex.

Music Postcard craze,

Found five hundred in those days;

Not a single pair of jeans

Come Saturday night

Was Luxembourg, drinks, free house

And we felt

Lust for life!

There were us three.

Though in our blood we were free,

With one goal stuck deep in our minds:

In several years,

Have the world at our heels,

Never hard up.

Alpaga plonk,

And discussions 'til dawn,

Our spirits were always awake.

Who punched whose nose?

And whose tears for this flowed

Things happening.

Separated us,

Perfect Pola Raska's face;

All ready to lay down our lives.

On a summer night,

On a blanket in moonlight,

What I wanted then, I found.

She said quick to me that our problems they might be.

I just had my homework done;

She turned up the heat.

After some time, we don't meet.

Once again,

Me alone.

Roles go in vain,

they can't relieve my pain

Life has taught me much more than they did.

Dossed on the floor,

I was wasting my time.

My greatest time

Pub far away

Klezmer asked me to play;

So much rubbish that still I go red.

One certain day,

Figured out that I knew:

Nothing at all.

Hearing my past,

Overcoming at last

Coming real was my greatest dream then

The thousandth crowd,

Drinking words from my mouth,

All loving me.

A hotel, a fan,

Saying "recorder I ran

That's just how a real throat should sing".

I open the door,

Saying nothing at all:

Walls never can

So it was doable. Are there still untranslatable songs, or does it just take a skillful translator to render the lyrics, rhymes, subtexts?

Hats off to all skillful translators (no, not to me).

Another busy weekend ahead, next posting comes probably on Thursday, when I'm taking a day off.

The fateful day

2011-04-10T08:41:00.007+02:00

Tuesday, 11 September 2001. Afternoon was warm and sunny. I was then at the beginning of my second year in middle school. Classes finished at 14:25 and some 10 minutes later I was home. My father was on holiday and watched the newly launched first Polish news channel - TVN24. A few minutes past 3 p.m. TV showed a burning WTC tower, then it broadcast live the moment another plane hit the other tower. We thought this was a quite interesting catastrophic film, but couldn't make out why it was broadcast by TVN24.

Sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction...

--------------------------------------------

3,133 days later...

My head felt heavy for the third day in row. I somehow felt tired after Easter break filled with job-looking-related tasks. Maybe I had slept for too long, maybe too short. I could just mope around the house, do the toiletry, clean my room. I turned the computer on, left a comment on another blog, then turned the computer off.

My mother and I talked for a while about the work/school - life balance. I think the conclusion wasn't reached, because I set about filling in another job application, that time for an internship in a treasury department at the state-controlled bank. I asked myself whether I really wanted to work there. On second thoughts I decided to give it a try. OK, name, surname, address, history of education.

My radioclock was on, tuned to RMF FM. At 09:26 the boring routine of entering personal data was interrupted by a terse news item that a Polish plane had had problems approchaing the runway in Smolensk. I stopped for a while, reluctant to carry on. "President would be walking on crutches", I thought.

There are things that go far beyond comprehension. Planes crash rarely, planes carrying important politicians don't crash in civilised countries. It can happen to a dictator reigning an African country. Some people can be injured, nobody surely died. Such a huge tragedy seemed unbelievable.

TV was on. The chaos was indeed hard to describe. As it now turns out, first, unofficial news about the disaster were in newsrooms just after 9:00, everyone was waiting to confirm it... TV stations were showing either news programmes informing about the tragedy or broadcast commemoration ceremonies in Katyn.

The first person I called was my close friend who repeatedly wished death on president Kaczynski. I felt odly curious to see his reaction. His flatmate picked up the phone, I asked if I could talk to my friend. I asked if he already knew, he said he didn't. When I told the president had died I left him speechless for a few seconds. Then he asked if I meant Lech Kaczynski and quickly added this was not a heart attack, but a big disaster in which tens of other people died. He was devastated...

The truth began so sink in and loom much more shocking as the list of passengers was unveiled.

Two questions were in my mind on that day: if the Polish state's continuity procedures would work properly and who the hell had allowed to put so many state officials on board of one plane...

Around quarter to eleven I turned another TV on. A woman in her 50's was shouting: Ruskie na pewno maczały w tym palce, to u nich się stało...

We watched the history in the making...

A year has gone by. Lives have gone on. People looked for jobs and some found them, films were shot, suburbs were flooded, presidential election was held, computers crashed, people rowed over politics and contemplated the eternal, crosses were put up and removed, money was lent to gamblers, but discussions on the causes of the Smolensk disaster never ceased, questions remain unanswered, Poles remain divided, MA theses were written, carrers started, natural disasters hit innocent people out of the blue, financial markets remained ruthless, pension system in Poland was reformed. Business as usual...

Rememberance should be fostered, but... business as usual...?