Sunday, 28 August 2011

Story of my life*

Lit upon this just a moment ago, reluctant to rant over Bernanke's dithering, Poland under construction (maybe next week), independent members of monetary polic council backing a specific party or an insolent lout who said members parliament who hail from the countryside had gone bananas...

Random memories, teenage years, put into sublime words

11 September 2001
It's early fall
There's a cloud on the New York skyline
Innocence dragged across a yellow line

21 May 2011
True love can never be rent
But only true love can keep beauty innocent

20 September 2002
I took the money
I spiked your drink
You miss too much these days if you stop to think
You lead me on with those innocent eyes
You know I love the element of surprise

11 October 2002
Did I ask too much, more than a lot?
You gave me nothing, now it's all I got

12 October 2002
Three o'clock in the morning
It's quiet and there's no one around
Just the bang and the clatter
As an angel runs to ground
Just the bang and the clatter
As an angel hits the ground

5 November 2002
You say when he hits you, you don't mind
Because when he hurts you, you feel alive
Is that what it is?
Red lights, grey morning
You stumble out of a hole in the ground
A vampire or a victim
It depends on who's around

23 January 2003
The wheels fly and the colors spin
Through alcohol
Red wine that punctures the skin
Face to face
In a dry and waterless place

14 February 2003
And if you listen I can't call
And if you jump, you just might fall
And if you shout I'll only hear you

14 April 2003
So sad to beseige your love so head on
Stay this time
Stay tonight in a lie
I'm only asking but I...
I think you know

28 June 2003
She runs through the streets
With her eyes painted red
Under black belly of cloud in the rain
In through a doorway she brings me
White gold and pearls stolen from the sea
She is raging
She is raging
And the storm blows up in her eyes
She will...

Suffer the needle chill
She's running to stand...

27 March 2004
You know he got the cure
You know he went astray
He used to stay awake
To drive the dreams he had away
He wanted to believe
In the hands of love

2 April 2004
I'm a man
I'm not a child
A man who sees
The shadow behidn your eyes

5 April 2004
You say love is a temple, love a higher law
Love is a temple, love the higher law
You ask me to enter, but then you make me crawl
And I can't be holding on to what you got, when all you got is hurt

29 June 2004
I want you to know
That you don't need me anymore
I want you to know
You don't need anyone
Or anything at all

28 September 2004
And we live by the side of the road
On the side of a hill
As the valley explode
Dislocated, suffocated
The land grows weary of its own

26 November 2004
And you feel like no-one before
You steal right under my door
And I kneel 'cause I want you some more
I want the lot of what you got
And I want nothing that you're not

18 March 2005
You were pretty as a picture
It was all there to see
Then your face caught up with your psychology
With a mouth full of teeth
You ate all your friends
And you broke every heart thinking every heart mends

You speak of signs and wonders
But I need something other
I would believe if I was able
But I'm waiting on the crumbs from your table

31 May 2005
Listen to me now
I need to let you know
You don't have to go it alone

And it's you when I look in the mirror
And it's you when I don't pick up the phone
Sometimes you can't make it on your own

11 September 2005
Oh, oh, oh...on borderland we run...
And still we run
We run and don't look back
I'll be there
I'll be there

14 October 2005
The glass is cut
The bottle run dry
Our love runs cold
In the caverns of the night
We're wounded by fear
Injured in doubt
I can lose myself

11 December 2005
Time? time...
Won't leave me as I am
But time won't take the boy out of this man

8 April 2006
No, nothing makes sense
Nothing seems to fit
I know you'd hit out
If you only knew who to hit

14 July 2006
You had to win
You couldn't just pass
The smartest ass
At the top of the class

27 July 2006
Desert sky
Dream beneath a desert sky
The rivers run but soon run dry
We need new dreams tonight

1 January 2007
If I could throw this
Lifeless lifeline to the wind
Leave this heart of clay
See you walk, walk away
Into the night
And through the rain
Into the half-light
And through the flame

If I could through myself
Set your spirit free
I'd lead your heart away
See you break, break away
Into the light
And to the day

To let it go
And so to fade away
To let it go
And so fade away

21 December 2007
Blinded you lost your way
Through the side streets and the alleyway
Like a star exploding in the night
Falling to the city in broad daylight

24 January 2008
It's no secret that a conscience can sometimes be a pest
It's no secret ambition bites the nails of success

7 August 2008
When I first met you girl
You had fire in your soul
What happened to you face of melting now?

25 September 2008
You're in my mind all of the time
I know that's not enough
if the sky can crack
there must be some way back
to love and only love

23 October 2008
One step closer to knowing

24 December 2008
See His mother dealing in a doorway see Father Christmas with a begging bowl
Jesus sister's eyes are a blister ... The High Street never looked so low

3 March 2009
Now this dry ground it bears no fruit at all
Only poppies laugh under the crescent moon
The road refuses strangers
The land the seeds we sow
Where might we find the land as white as snow

1 April 2009
It's not a hill, it's a mountain
As you start out the climb

24 July 2009
At the moment of surrender
I'm falling to my knees
I did not notice the passers-by
And they did not notice me

14 July 2009
You had to win
You couldn't just pass
The smartest ass
At the top of the class

24 Septmeber 2009
I must be an acrobat
To talk like this

10 April 2010
In the wind we hear their laughter
In the rain we see their tears
Hear their heartbeat
We hear their heartbeat

19 May 2010
You can dream
So dream out loud
You know that your time is coming 'round
So don't let the bastards grind you down

31 May 2010
He went deeper into black
Deeper into white
Could see the stars shining
Like nails in the night

22 August 2010
In my dream I was drowning my sorrows
But my sorrows, they learned to swim
Surrounding me, going down on me
Spilling over the brim

4 November 2010
Haven't seen you in quite a while
I was down the hold just passing time
Last time we met was a low-lit room

20 November 2010
Jesus can you take the time
To throw a drowning man a line?

19 March 2011
And it’s already gone too far
You said that if you go in hard
You won’t get hurt

30 June 2011
You had to win
You couldn't just pass
The smartest ass
At the top of the class

25 August 2011
If I could, you know I would
If I could, I would
Let it go...
This desparation
In temptation
Let it go

* Compiled solely from U2 lyrics

Sunday, 21 August 2011

Recharging batteries

Probably almost everyone, counting out Scatts, has already got bored with the topic of shaky stock markets, so this undeniably exciting issue will recede into background for a while and I'll focus on more down-to-earth stuff. I've had a busy weekend, the coming ones don't appear to give respite (longing for real restful holidays), but over the long mid-August weekend I had some time to recharge batteries...

On Sunday I brought my parents on taking a trip to Konstancin. The foray was quite short, the weather was perfect (sun, not to hot, not really cool) and batteries in my camera had long been waiting for charging up - took just a few snaps. To the right - view from a path running from rebuilt bridge over river Jeziorka towards the park. Water meadows are flooded, mosquitos assault, but the place enchants.

To the right - got into the park. The signage (probably - my guess) shows distances to twin cities to Konstancin. A few second after taking this photo I had to rush quickly from the pavement, as reversing bus on military number plates was attempting to crunch me. Shouldn't such parks have status of pedestrian precincts, with bans on entry for engine-propelled vehicles?

To the right - the main cultural attraction of the park in Konstancin - a bandstand, with some musicians getting ready for a performance. The stage, built recently shows some glitches in terms of technique of construction, but all in all this place should be here to offer entertainment to local residents and tourists. It has to be said it has a long tradition. My father would come here for dancing in his late teens, my paternal grandparents met here two years after WWII. May it look splendid...

On Monday morning I ventured for a bike trip around nearby villages. The weather stays perfect - +17C and sun. Warm, yet cool enough to wear a T-shirt without running a risk of breaking sweat. Bracing breeze is taking edge off heat and so off I go. To the right - empty street in Piaseczno - one can cycle safely when the traffic is so sparse - one of main advantages of riding a bike in the morning on Sundays or bank holidays.

To the right - first photo taken without stopping. Due to technical limitations of my bike and physical limitations of my legs I don't risk being fined for speeding. This is ul. Orężna in Piaseczno. One of favourite destination of walks with my mother and maternal grandfather in my childhood. Memories brought back; the place hasn't changed much since then, but unlike in 1990s this is not a dreamt-up place to live.

Why wouldn't I like to settle down here? Come to think of it. Rural landscapes, silence, no fumes, no noises, no... infrastructure. It's actually hard to get by here if you don't have a car at your disposal. Local buses run here a few times a day, you can catch one in morning rush hour, but if you happen to oversleep and come late, you're in the doghouse. The last one arrives here at 20:20 - much too early. Think of coming late from a party - you have three options: 1) don't drink and come by car on your own, 2) ask someone from your family to pick you up, 3) take a taxi. Each option has a drawback: 1) you can't draw pleasure from blissful state of intoxication, soberity is not conducive to socialising, 2) you are dependent on someone, 3) you fork out over 100 PLN for a ride from Warsaw (Metro Wilanowska)...

This time I fail to make a sharp photo without stopping a bike. This colourful building is a typical landmark of Polish rural landscape. Feels like I'm some 300 kilometres away from Warsaw, while in fact I'm less than 5 kilometres, as teh crow flies, from the city limits. As you can see, the owner did not bother to turn up and open the facility on bank holiday (according to Polish labour code, only shopowners can stand behind the counters on bank holidays).

I cycle further west to discover I don't know where I am. The signboard to the left says I'm cycling to Jazgarzewszczyzna (what a long name!), the one to the right opts for Łoziska. The truth probably lies in between, so the road must mark boundary between the two villages. As I'm snapping the signboards, symbols of Polish mistrust bark at me loudly. Suddenly one of them finds an open gate and makes me put away the camera to my pocket and test how quick I can pedal...

Having turned right in Bobrowiec I find myself on ul. Postępu running straight towards Warsaw, where its extension is ul. Karczunkowska. Bus stop with ZTM signage reminds me I'm still in the vicinity of Warsaw. This doesn't yet mean commuting from here is easy. Buses run just a few times a day, so if you miss one, you may have a problem. The traffic is still sparse. What a lovely day!

Crossed the intersection with road linking Piaseczno and Magdalenka and I'm heading north. I stop on the roadside to snap a beatiful field overgrown by weeds. In the distance - detached and semi-detached houses in Lesznowola. In six years S7 expressway running from Warsaw to Kraków should be here. According to plan this is also a site where a junction with local 721 road is about to be built. But these are years to come, before it happens. After Euro 2012 spurt, pace of construction is very likely to grind to a halt.

Some 500 metres up the road I again stop by to take a shot of a partly pulled down house. When I last was there in early June there was one more room on the first floor. Who used to live here? Why was it torn down in such weird way? Who administers it?

Turned right in Nowa Wola and I'm on my way towards Nowa Iwiczna. Reckless drivers tend to speed at empty ul. Krasickiego Nowa Wola, so I choose to cycle on empty pavement, built in 2008 after two tragic accident in which three pedestrians had been killed at the scene. And a classic snap - Warsaw skyline as seen from beyond the southern border of Warsaw. Skyscrapers are shrouded in a haze, as the air is wet, as it's been for a few weeks on. With dry air, the visibility would a whole lot better. Compact camera set at the highest possible resolution, maximum (4x) optical zoom in use - device is a bit too close to the low-end to rise to the occasion.

And at the very and - a photo from the archives. I wanted to put it up on Polandian, but fellow writers remonstrated me over chasing cheap sensation. Another shot of Warsaw skyline, taken on 8 August 2010 around 8:35 in the morning, from the corner of ul. Karczunkowska and ul. Raszyńska, I don't know if it is still Warsaw, Zamienie or Zgorzała. Click to enlarge, look carefully... Can you see anything strange?

Sunday, 14 August 2011

When markets go haywire

August 2011 for many will go down in history as a period of increased volatility on the markets. Stock markets all over the world, Swiss franc and gold swung up and down, markets began to resemble a rollercoaster. This is probably one of more apposite metaphors rendering goings-on on the markets over last two weeks, but if you opt for a blunt comparison, get on to New York Post cover which drew a parallel between stock price quotations and a prostitute’s pants. I thought Polish tabloid Fakt beats anything else in terms of stupidity, but again I was wrong.

Looking back on the last weeks, the recent turmoil should not haven taken us aback. In June I even had a clear inkling of an upcoming tumble, as in the light of macroeconomic situation and recurring patterns markets tend to follow, what happened was absolutely predictable.

The bull market of 2009 – 2011. Hmm, am I not going too far by claiming the bull market is over? Well, technically it is, as stock indices have fallen by more than 20% from their peaks. OK, let’s start over. The last bull market began in February 2009 when economies were in the doldrums and stocks were down some 60% - 70% down from their peaks noted in 2007. Stimulus programmes aimed at reviving economies, cheap money injected into financial markets and scale of preceding bear market conjured up an abrupt bull market that lasted until August 2009. Within six months stocks soared by some 60% - 70%, then ensued the second wave of bull market, of moderate growth of price, intermingling with periods of downbeat expectations, such as those in early February 2010 or in late spring 2010 when Greece was about to go bust for the first time. With time, and as markets were flooded by cheap money printed by the FED, speculators got immune to bad news. Markets slowly rose to reach peaks in late April 2011. WIG20, the index of Warsaw Stock Exchange covering 20 blue chips (which will later be a benchmark for me) rose between 17 February 2009 to 28 April 2011 by 123% and peaked at 2,942 points. The invisible barrier of 3,000 points was close at hand, yet out of reach, just as 4,000 in October 2007 when WIG20 hit its ever-time high of 3,941 points. Then markets behaved typically (this means there was no speculative bubble) for a cyclical downturn. Peak was reached with difficulties, then stocks retreated and a slow descent ensued. The phase of descent which usually lasts between two and three months, here lasted slightly longer, but the scale of consequent sell-off made up for the long wait. In a typical scenario after the sell-off there’s a correction upwards and then begins the longest phase of bear market, when price gradually decline and more and more people lose their hope and sell stocks with losses, until the cycle reaches its trough, i.e. the moment when it just can’t be any worse.

I did expect it. I knew debt ceiling dispute in the United States could be a spark to set the flame on the markets and even began selling stocks and putting money on bank deposits. But as the fateful 2 August was drawing nearer and markets did not discount the technical-default scenario I assumed nothing bad would happen and stocks would even shoot up when the debt ceiling deal would be struck. Indeed, by means of give and take Democrats and Republican agreed to increase the debt ceiling and bring down government expenses, but this happened at hour eleven and did not put markets at ease.

I knew sooner or later things would look really dreadfully but put back the decision to sell all stocks, but after all, as Scatts said, I learnt a valuable lesson. On 2 August 2011, in the eve of the crash around 30% of my portfolio was in stocks, share with the biggest weighting was JSW, bought in IPO in early July and sold in only 20% (with profit).

Now let’s look at the timeline of the turmoil.

2 August 2011 – WIG20 drops by over 1%, although debt ceiling is poised to be raised and problem of the US default is postponed by two years.

3 August 2011 – WIG 20 drops by 3.26% and breaks the resistance at 2,600 points which was said to open the door for a bigger correction. It seems markets should get over the news on US debt deal. I don’t buy, nor sell.

4 August 2011 – during the trading session WIG20 floats below 3 August close, only after US market open it begins to decline. At the end of the day it plummets by 3.55%. I’m livid, this was bound to happen and I didn’t get rid of all stocks, to make it worse, some of my buy orders were executed and boosted my stock holdings.

5 August 2011 – I bet on that day the market should bounce back. It does for a moment when US non-farm payroll data are announced. Some of my take-profit orders are executed, I sell more or less the same securities as bought the day before. I’m calm, panic has reached its climax, now it’ll only get better. WIG20 down by mere 1.63%.

6 August 2011 – not a trading day, but I wake up to hear the news US sovereign rating was downgraded. A tsunami on the markets is in the offing…

8 August 2011 – I decide to make two bets – either market has discounted and nothing happens, or the S&P report on the downgrade will bring about the second, bigger wave of panic. To my surprise both scenarios materialised. In the morning stocks were up and I sold some and in the afternoon when market participants in the US set out to sell stocks, I bought the same stocks back at lower prices and inadvertently became a day-trader. When markets opened I sold all crappy stocks, incurring losses, to garner more money to buy shares in solid companies. WIG20 tumbled by 2.34%. Stock indices in the US fall by over 4% (DJIA) or devilish 6.66% (S&P 500).

9 August 2011 – I say to myself nothing lasts forever and again place buy and sell orders, waiting for any of possible scenarios to materialise. Buy will be executed, if stocks really plummet (price decreasing by at least 8%), sell will go if prices rise by only 1%. Sell-off continues and I keep buying stocks, average purchase prices decline. Despite corrective rallies in the US WIG20 falls by 3.20%, but it end the day much higher than intra-day drop by over 5%.

10 August 2011 – Anna Jantar’s song Nic nie może wiecznie trwać reverberates in my head, but I need a deep breath, I don’t try to buy nor sell anything. I need to think things over and protect my psyche. I wrote MA thesis on speculative bubbles and I know adverse market conditions can severely impact one’s mental health. At the end of another harrowing day (WIG20 down by 5.16%) I count my assets. An equivalent of one and a half of my monthly salary has vanished into the air. I knew there were risks in the game, this loss is still better than giant outstanding debts in Swiss franc my colleagues have…

11 August 2011 – in the morning, before going to work I transfer an amount of money that reduces share of safe assets in my portfolio to 50% to my brokerage account and make a huge bet that stocks will plummet again and place huge buy order at levels some 7% lower than Wednesday’s close on really solid stocks. Lucky me, this materialises, blue chip stocks are very volatile and I managed to buy a lot very near troughs. Then the market skyrockets and within a day on some stocks I gained 10% This proves still too little to make up for my previous losses. My move is an example of aggressive speculation that could or even should have ended in a very painful way, but somehow I was in the luck and it didn’t. On that day WIG20 reached the intra-day low of 2,115 points. I checked and the last time it had been that low on 30 July 2009. Over two years of bull market wiped out within a week! Despite losses I draw pleasure from experiencing it. At the end of the day WIG20 rises by 4.53%

12 August 2011 – I decide to sell some stocks of JSW which hit me the most, if they rise, I do so and don’t try anything else. Everything indicates the panic is gone and stocks should make a move upwards and give me the chance to recover my losses.

Try to ask me what future holds – I won’t tell you, I’m helpless. On one hand I still hold the view that bear market is inevitable due to macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand companies are doing well and their stocks seemed very cheap recently. A rebound would be a typical scenario subsequent to the sell-off we witnessed, but what then.

My speculative strategy is not to buy anything, unless prices drop more than 10% below lows recorded on Thursday. If my stocks reach the price near my break even point, I’ll start selling them gradually. There is no other way, time of risky actions taken to win back money is over, now it’s time to stay on the safe side. If market returns to levels above 2,500 points I still won’t be buying anything, but will protect my profits by stop-loss orders and pull out of the market if it goes under again. In the long run there are too many problems to let markets go up. I think I’ll prefer a bank deposit, but hey, will I be able to live without little dose of gambling stock market offers? Safety should be then more important to me than pleasure…

In fact this is all about psychology. Normally when the market goes haywire and plummets as it did over last two weeks, people fall into panic, institutional traders sell because their stop-loss orders activate, but someone buys these stocks. Thank God I kept a cool head and didn’t panic, although there were moments I wanted to sell all stocks just to keep my head quiet and forget about the nightmare of mounting losses. I persevered, my first big sell-off when I was in the market didn’t break my back and thanks to a stupid, risky strategy of catching a falling knife I didn’t lose a lot (now my loss equals only one monthly salary). This lesson has to be learnt.

Sunday, 7 August 2011


The biggest drawback of infrequent blogging is that I can't keep up with goings-on as I would like to. Last Thursday I wrote a short post, but this was just an exception that proved the rule... Last Monday I hatched the idea of writing about Mr Sikorski hapless utterance on Warsaw Uprising, but in the meantime markets crashed, Polish former deputy prime minister died and United States had their credit rating downgraded. Time to catch up...

1. Mr Sikorski's blunder...
Is an ideal starting point for a discussion on limits of free speech. Two days before the anniversary he dared to announce on Twitter (or twitted) Warsaw Uprising had been a national disaster we should learn a lesson from and linked to a webpage run by opponents of cult of Uprising. The backlash came immediately. Politicians from his party described his statement as inappropriate and politicians from PiS deemed it to be flagrant. The harsh reaction speaks volumes about state of free speech and situation of dissenters in Poland. Everyone can have their own views, but if they are not in line with generally accepted ideology, please keep quiet...

But let's take the issue apart. I wrote two years ago a post on the Warsaw Uprising and haven't changed my mind since then. There's no need to repeat what I said then, so let's just invoke the figures that should get stuck in your minds. 180,000 civilisans dead, those alive driven out of the city, capital of Poland virtually wiped off the map. Given the death toll and scale of destruction, wasn't it a disaster? Didn't Mr Sikorski have courage to say what other people are afraid to say? As I mentioned in the posting dated 1 August 2009, my own family was also affected by the uprising and my parents' and mine opinions have been shaped by what we have heard at homes. For us, the uprising was an act of not only great courage but also of great desperation. I mused about those young people who couldn't wait to get back on their oppressors and probably if I had lived then, I would take the same decision. I would fight, even if I knew it had been a losing battle. Therefore I believe we must foster rememberance of those days and commemorate those brave young people who fought to free their beloved city, pay tribute to thousands of innocent civilians who died in numerous carnages, but I refuse to speak highly about generals who masterminded the whole operation. The price to pay seems for me too high. Some would argue, it was worth doing, because Stalin's army waited until insurgents in Warsaw breathed their last and it halted advance of communist soldiers into Western Europe. Uncanny, yet logical hypothesis, but do Westerners care???

2. Andrzej Lepper's death
The news that former deputy prime minister in Jarosław Kaczyński was found hung in the head office of his party in Warsaw hit me on Saturday. Officially, he committed suicide, all evidence indicate he did it himself, only the question about reasons remains unanswered. Some speculate about family problems, some claim financial troubles pushed him to take the last step. But hang on, sex scandal problems have long been sorted out, his son was said to be terminally ill, but hasn't died yet. Grief after son's death could push him to a suicide, but not the illness. Did he know too much, was it in someone's vested interest to liquidate him? I know this sounds like conspiracy theory, yet such concepts spring up whenever there's a lot of room for doubts and an event is hardly believable. Andrzej Lepper was a strong man, he fought his way into the parliament, went through a stormy coalition that wiped his party off the policital arena. Came hell or high water, he would stay afloat, so what could cause a breakdown that allegedly made him grab a rope and kick away a stool?

3. Market crash.
Shit happens sometimes. We haven't seen such a panic since 2008 and the worst is not over. On Friday when markets opened, panic sell-off reached its climax. After a few minutes of trading stock prices bounced back and for the rest of the day stayed between 1% and 2% below Thursday's close. There was a moment, just after upbeat US pay-roll data was released, when some stocks were quoted higher than the day before. To paraphrase the old saying - what comes down, must go up. After a three-day sell-off when the panic was gone, speculators should step in and bet a rebound. Hopes for such scenario were dashed on Saturday morning when S&P agency announced it downgraded US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ and reaffirmed negative outlook. Two other rating agencies upheld their grades of triple A. What the implications for the markets will be then? Judging by plummeting indices in Middle-East countries, another wave of panic is about to spill over and the coming week will be marked by fear and gloom. But on the other hand every man with a head screwed in has long realised United States are bankrupt and their debt service capacity is conditioned only on possibility to roll it over. So does a downgrade mean anything? From an economic point of view nothing has changed, but from technical perspective, the downgrade will force investment institutions that build their investment portfolios according to specific guidelines to reshuffle the securities they invest in. Swiss franc and gold will probably remain safe havens what will send prices of both to new record-breaking levels. The troubles must be really serious, if governors of central banks called a meeting together to map out a plan to contain turmoil on financial markets. I know they have little chance to do so. Katharsis is under way and has to last until the air is cleared (even if I am to pay the price as well)...

Now I'll take the opportunity to say goodbye to my capital gains tax for 2011. According to Polish tax law, losses can be carried forward, so this might be a good moment for a farewell with part of possible capital gains tax for 2012. I came to terms with the losses (an equivalent of my monthly salary - could have been worse), now it's time to work out a plan how to recover from this. Free fall of stocks may last a day, two, or three, but on the markets nothing lasts forever and the direction must change, as it always happens after the slump, the subsequent reversal will be abrupt. Now the goal is to catch the right moment and win something back. In the middle and long-term I would keep away from the market or stay in or out of it only for speculative purposes. That's just money, one-third of my all savings, recovery rate is still much higher than in the case of loan to my ex-friend gambler, I'm in good health, I have a job, no major problems, no debts.

Chin up! It's just the second melt-down. I hope this time we'll learn from the crisis, because as I've repeatedly claimed, the recent one, or the ongoing so far one, has taught us nothing.

Have a good week and don't panic!

Thursday, 4 August 2011

Wealth evaporating

When stock markets tumbled on Blue Monday in Janaury 2008 at the news of oncoming recession I stood aside...

When Lehman Brother went bust in September 2008 and stocks nosedived, I kept away from risky assets

When within first six weeks of 2009 stock indices fell by 25% I held my money on bank deposits and was glad to be offered high interest rate.

Even in early February 2010 when a wave of panic wreaked havoc to stockholders I was out of stocks as I had managed to pull out two weeks earlier.

So why the fuck haven't I sold out stocks this f*cking time... Par for the course. I had predicted it, I knew it was bound to happen. Greece is actually bust. Other PIIGS countries are on a brink of insolvency. USA is bankrupt, despite its prime credit rating. Macroecomomic data clearly show world economy is poised at least for a slowdown, if not for a recession. Double-dip recession. It must have happened, so why the hell did I hang back on disposing of risky assets?

No, I'm not complaining because I incurred a loss equal to my monthly salary within two days. I took a chance and this was a part of the game. I'm f*cked up just because tumbling market didn't take me aback and I did nothing to protect my assets. Tough luck...

Now cool down... This is just a panic, stock prices will rebound when greed takes over from fear and then I'll jump out of the market. Let's face the truth, this is how the bear market begins. Macroeconomic data prove the standing of more and more economies, including the Polish one, is getting worse. Also stock markets follow a recurring pattern. Indices peaked a few weeks ago, then stock prices declined slowly and yesterday and today the decline turned into a full-blown waterfall, wailing wall, free fall or whatever. Then comes the correction. When the panic is gone, speculators will begin buying up "cheap" stocks, after an uptick the prices will be going down for months, until we see the trough. There will be a moment, just as two and a half years ago when everyone could only see abyss. This is when the light in the tunnel comes up...

Cheer up... :)