The golden age - book review

Most books coming into by hands are recommended by someone else, but the reviewed one indeed has been chosen by someone else, but not precisely for me. The essay on the macroeconomic success of Poland after 1989 was an award in a contest for managers run by my employer and with a bit of luck I won it. Regardless of uncanny method I have come by it, I am glad it has landed on my bookshelf.

Oddly enough, the book, whose author, Mr Piątkowski, is a scholar at Oxford University, has been originally written in English. I have learnt it around the middle of my reading, having come across several excerpts having all features of clumsy translations of English sentences. I regret not having the chance to get familiar with the original version, yet at the end of the day, the cognitive experience would have been the same. Of note is that the first edition of the book was published in 2018. Since then there were some minor supplements and the last chapter was added, yet in the contemporary fast-evolving world, passing time has rendered some arguments outdated.

Regardless of what some populist politicians might tell you, Poland has made an impressive stride after 1989, absolutely unprecedented in its history; a progress all citizens have benefited from (though not to the same extent) we, a collective accomplishment Poles can be proud of.

In the first chapters of the book, the author explores drivers of economic growth, paying particular attention to purely qualitative ones, such as institutions, culture and mindsets of people. His musings bring back Micheal's question, whether collapse of communism should be put down to the system or to the people. Before Mr Piątkowski moves on to examine reasons why Poland used to fall behind western Europe for centuries, he reminds GDP is not a perfect indicator of people's welfare and happiness. Here, again, my thought are diverted to Michael's blog and his de-growth manifesto.

Over the course of its history, Poland could not boast of testimony of growth-conducive circumstances. Between 16th and 18^th century, when western European nations accumulated wealth, Poland was effectively under the rule of oligarchic caste of noblemen, who pursued their own interests, consumed fruits of peasants' work in countryside, fostering their backwardness, when in the West, middle class of merchants and upper-middle class of industry developers was nascent. The country, devoid of actual power exercised by a king and lacking money from tax collection, was gradually plunging into anarchy, which eventually led to partitions which wiped Poland off the map if Europe for 123 years.

Once Poland regained independence in 1918, it restored its pre-partition social structure with tiny elite minding its own business and keeping with country backward. The society was still predominantly agrarian, with poor access to education and health service. With such elites, the country had little chance to move forward.

The advent of communism, no matter how evil it was, turned the social structure upside down and flattened it. The bygone elites (those who survived WW2) were stripped off their wealth, while the descendants of the numerous lower class were given a chance for social advancement. Communist Poland has not only cracked down on illiteracy, but also gave a chance to children of peasants and blue-collar workers to get university education. As the author points out then, inclusiveness and low inequality of the Polish society were crucial for putting the country on fast-growth track after 1989.

The post-1989 advance was tough, painful and a deep recession was the price to pay for fast catching up with the West in subsequent years. The author points out a mix of factors, categorised both into "the system" and "the people" underpinned the period of unprecedented growth which with hindsight might beyond all doubt be called the golden age of Poland. The progress continued for many years despite the headwinds from the world economy and regardless of political groupings behind the wheel. Personal bias aside, leftist post-communists, centrist PO and right-populist PiS have all helped my country move ahead.

The best years are behind us. The distance to the richer west is narrower, cheap workforce is no longer our ace up the sleeve. Poland lacks cutting-edge innovativeness which could work to its advantage. Besides, demographics, especially fertility drastically lower than expected a few years ago, will become a massive burden hampering further development. Looking at the far end of the political arena at parties opposing Poland's belonging to the (imperfect, yet best available) civilised West and tilting at the empire of evil, one cries out: don't squander it.

Going back to the very review - after a brilliant beginning, with each chapter charm wanes and towards the end, the book gets not yet dull, but too academic. Nevertheless, anyone fond of economics and history of Poland should find time to get familiar with it.

Góry Świętokrzyskie for a weekend

Spent the last weekend away, yet not far away from Warsaw in Góry Świętokrzyskie, a hilly area closest to Warsaw, which does not deserved be named mountains. Ventured there with almost the same circle of friends, all current or former volunteers in Szlachetna Paczka with whom I took a trip to Sardinia three years ago.

The quite short time spent in a group of seven people reminded me I had got used to travelling on my own or in a couple. Or maybe it just highlighted divergencies between my friends and me (where the six of them are quite similar to one another). Travelling with my girlfriends, optionally also with their friends seems a whole lot easier.

With my friends for a long time I have noticed two major moot points. Firstly - sleeping habits. I am the only early bird in this group, while others prefer to sit up late (which I don't mind, but get up early next morning anyway). Secondly - eating. I am the one who eats to live, not the other way round and do not take delight in dining. Besides, I eat a large breakfast and a proper lunch and then take up little until going to sleep. They in turn all adore tasty food and a dinner is their main meal over the day. I like their company, but each time I am surrounded by them for more than a few hours, I repeat to myself I am not marrying them, hence my frustrations are useless.

Now a few snaps from the trip. On Saturday we climbed a short trail to Święty Krzyż church. Had I travelled on my own, I would have reached the peak by 10:00 a.m. With my friends we got there in full heat at 1:00 p.m.

The church has a viewing tower (entrance charge: PLN 10), which lets visitors behold splendid panoramas of nearby hilly landscapes. I am fond of looking at the world from above, hence joyfully forked out a tenner to take delight in it.

On Sunday we scrambled up Łysica, the highest hill around, mere 612 metres above sea level. We marched up just past a rainfall, so the ascent, though short, was a bit of nasty. Predictably, droves of tourists on rocks on top.

Later on we drove to Zagnańsk to pass by apparently the oldest tree in Poland, oak Bartek, whose age is estimated at between 700 and 1,000 years. The very tree needs to be fenced off and solidly propped up to retain its monumental nature 

The area is abundant in several tourist attractions and we could have seen more of them, had it not been an overly lazy weekend ;-)

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.

The presidential race in 2025 - first battle

After the introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I have not caught up with commentaries.

The rivalry remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal, predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.

The debate hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.

On Friday before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.

The first figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m. was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.

In late afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski (1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score.

Knowing turnout readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand. The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.

The official exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15% of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%, it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.

Before the we face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.

I believe in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat. Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!

Polish presidential election in 2025 – the candidates

How time flies! This is the fourth presidential election in my homeland commented on this blog. In 2010 the vote was held in the shadow of the Smolenskair crash. In 2015 the election paved the way to PiS getting hold of power for 8 years. In 2020 the vote had to be postponed due to the pandemic.

Let’s have a subjective overview of candidates voters in Poland will be able to choose from on 18 May 2025.

Rafał Trzaskowski became a natural contender after in 2020, upon being swapped for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, in not entirely fair duel, scored 49% of votes. Five years ago his freshness added him popularity. Today, he seems to have squandered some of energy, faith and hope put in him. In this campaign he buries a burden of fatigue with liberal-leftist coalition having majority in the Polish parliament since late 2023. For many his biggest merit is handsomeness and fluency in foreign languages. For right-wing wackos he embodies all evils of the liberal elites and is a symbol of progressive leftist agenda. I fear his crew might fire up “Kamala” protocol which will not earn him more voters but might discourage floating electorate from putting a cross against him. His biggest asset seems to be his wife, starkly contrasting with the incumbent first lady.

Karol Nawrocki, formally a “civic” candidate, but effectively avidly supported by PiS. Nearly unknown a few months ago, enjoys support in polls a few percentage points lower than the party backing him. Apparently not a bright spark, lacks clear opinions on many issues, when asked directly, gives evasive answers. If he does not make it to the run-off, which is conceivable, a major reshuffle in Polish politics might be in the offing.

Sławomir Mentzen, burnt and bruised after his defeat in the parliamentary election in 2023, has learnt from mistakes made then. He ousted madcaps such as Grzegorz Braun and Janusz Korwin-Mikke from Konfederosja and now his party has a façade of a civilised right-wing grouping. Beware though, he and his cronies remain pernicious. In polls he has recently caught up with Mr Nawrocki, now they go neck in neck. The hideous bloke is less likely to win the election than the PiS-backed candidate, but his victory in the long-term would be more detrimental to Poland.

Szymon Hołownia, a rising star of the presidential election in 2020, then a superb speaker of the parliament, currently is not fighting for presidency, but to reinforce his grouping, so that it does not fall below 5%. I somewhat regret never voting for him, as he deserved it. Sadly, the potential has been wasted. I hope before the run-off he clearly hands over his support to Mr Trzaskowski.

The two leftist candidates – Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg probably have cumulative support of approximately 5%. Left-wing electorate would rather cast votes for Mr Trzaskowski right away.

Other contenders are unlikely to get more than 2% of votes each, hence their participation in the race is rather for the sake of marking their presence in politics, rather than chasing the actual victory.

Odds of another post on the campaign before the election day are rather tiny, unless an unforeseen twist of action changes my mind and will prompt me to focus my attention on politics.

Zygmunt making the headlines

35 years past Poland's transition into free-market economy, the time ensues for several entrepreneurs to retire. Their businesses are usually either handed over to descendants or sold to third-party investors. Succession in Poland has not been an issue brought up frequently. Until recently...

Family issues of Zygmunt Solorz-Żak are now like episodes of a gripping TV series. The very character is a media and telecommunications tycoon, controlling the largest private TV station, a satellite TV platform, two telephony and internet providers and also a power plant on top.

Divorced twice, until recently fostered relationships with three of his adult offspring, born to him by his two ex-wives. All three children were more or less successfully involved in running his numerous businesses. Half a year ago he married Justyna Kulka, aged 50, i.e. nearly two decades younger than him. The third marriage is cited by many as the source of problems and sparked a battle between the tycoon's children and his new wife.

I will not summarise the intricacies of the dispute, especially since we still know less than more. Everyone who saw the streaming of the extraordinary shareholders' meeting held last Monday might have serious doubts about Mr Solorz's capacity to make informed decisions and exercise control over his businesses.

In Poland, where everyone is an expert in any area, tribulations in the media empire are widely commented. Mr Solorz and his relatives are avidly judged. Only few commentators point out Mr Solorz might do whatever he wants with his private wealth. This assertion could be true, yet it is not, for the sake of a single important detail. Several of his businesses are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Their prices have declined by 10% to 20% since the turmoil commenced. Several small investors, institutions and pension funds have seen a chunk of their wealth evaporating. For such reason, the decisions of succession may impact virtually anybody, so are not just his private stuff.

From a banker's perspective, the stock market's reaction is absolutely justified. Mismanagement may send a sound business under quite quickly. I have seen smaller companies going bankrupt in the wake of conflicts between shareholders. For Mr Solorz’s businesses the path is longer. Mr Solorz himself does not take decisions, but can instantly appoint and oust senior executives, which means already gives sizeable potential for disruptions.

To the Polish seaside, 2024

Last minute booking proves a cost-effective travel strategy (unless in high season) if you want to grasp a decent, yet cheaply-priced accommodation. We did it the previous Friday and thus found a three-night stay for mere PLN 400 for the two of us (the dog free of charge).

For the sake of convenience, we chose Sztutowo by Zatoka Gdańska bay, which is one of the nearest seaside spots from Warsaw - mere 325 kilometres from Ursynów, door to door.

Sztutowo is a nefarious example of public transport deprivation, with a journey to Gdańsk Główny train station by two buses lasting at best 4 hours and 33 minutes, longer than a door-to-door journey by car. Driving-wise the S7 section between Czosnów and Płońsk under reconstruction is awfully unfriendly even for a seasoned driver. I somewhat feared my quarter-a-year old car (a review next week) would get a first damage from one of fellow insane drivers (had one near miss), but fortunately it returned home in one piece.

Given the timing of our foray a week before the onset of school holidays and non-resort character of Sztutowo, we stayed far from the groan and enjoyed charms of nearly empty beaches.

In the nearby Krynica Morska to which we travelled by bikes on Monday, precincts and beaches were already full of people on a working week day still before the high season. While Krynica Morska is not a recommendable destination to find a place, the R10 cycling path running to it is utterly breathtaking.

Sztutowo is known for being a location of a nazi concentration camp between 1939 and 1945. On the somewhat rainy Sunday I cycled to the local museum to have an encounter with the traces of one of lousiest atrocities in the history of the mankind. Realising what happened there is not equivalent to being confronted with the testimony thereof.

Albeit the very journey there and the accommodation were cheap, eating out involved forking out loads of money for the horrific restaurant receipts (paragony grozy) a lunch for two (a sizeable portion of fish, French fries, a set of rawness, beverage) was the expense between PLN 120 (pricey, yet still reasonable) and PLN 160 (too pricey for non-resort location and pre-high season). With most tables occupied, I presume with eating out not particularly affordable for an average Pole, the local market remains in a balance, especially since holidaymakers tend to be less thrifty.

Check out also the coverages of previous trips to the seaside in May 2022 and June 2021.