Having shaken off

Four months past the presidential election I can confess in the run-off I voted for Mr Trzaskowski with some disgust. With no doubts, aware that my vote was primarily against Mr Nawrocki, driven my common sense. My disgust reached its peak when he prematurely announced his victory based on exit polls, giving him a tiny lead, far below the error margin of 2 percentage points. In the next days, along with over 10 million of voters I imploded into a short mourning, but got over it quickly. Two days after his defeat Mr Trzaskowski returned to his office and carried on as a mayor of Warsaw. He did what residents of the capital had given him a mandate to do, focused on running the city and kept away from country-wide politics, especially from the dispute on allegedly rigged election.

With time I Mr Trzaskowski has evolved in my mind to man being a class of his own. My disgust has faded away and has given way to a strong sense of a properly fulfilled duty. In retrospect, I am strongly convinced I voted for the most suitable candidate.

Mr Trzaskowski, though active as a mayor of Warsaw, shunned interviews with journalists until 26 September 2025, when he faced a (belated) barrage of questions from media representatives and youngsters. I have also watched it belatedly, however recommend you sacrifice 80 minutes of your precious time to listen or watch the interview in which Mr Trzaskowski was not spared inconvenient questions.

A mature man is capable of conceding his defeat, admitting mistakes he has made and learning from them. This is what Mr Trzaskowski is like. He appears wiser than his political entourage and most of his voters. He correctly urges not to bridle at reality nor to antagonise those who voted for his rival. Poking fun at Mr Nawrocki, as Mr Trzaskowski points out, is counterproductive and only solidifies the current presidents’ hangers-on. Mr Nawrocki’s victory (the scale of irregularities,which by all means ought to be sorted out, would not have brought his score below 50.6%) embodies what majority of Poles have opted for. We need to face the music, realise what has led to such choice and get our act together to minimise the number of seats in the parliament right-wing parties garner in the parliamentary election in 2027.

Mr Trzaskowski gently distances himself from the government, whose ineptitude was one of crucial drivers of his defeat, however calls for unity if the democratic coalition is not to succumb to right-wing opponents.

At the end, when addressing adolescents, he implores them not to break down, warrants not to lick wounds. No one will turn back time, we need to move ahead, pull up sleeves and build modern and tolerant Poland and stem the nationalist flood.

Mr Trzaskowski is not a spick-and-span handsome chap from a picture. He is flesh and bones. His elections staff and political entourage have got it wrong several times during the campaign, Mr Trzaskowski himself has not made any fundamental mistake. The more time lapses from the election, the more I realise a candidate being a symbol of liberal-leftist elites could not stand a chance to win the presidential election is a conservative country in times when the entire world is swerving right. His score of 49% is an accomplishment I am putting down to a his repulsive rival, abhorrent enough to mobilise liberal and leftist electorate to vote against him.

Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Not the outcome I desired

My scepticism expressed in the recent post harshly contrasted with a pre-mature victory claim made by Mr Trzaskowski. I went to sleep, realising the ultimate vote count would show a tiny gap between the contenders’ scores. I woke up at 3:00 a.m., peeked at the mobile phone to find foul language in messages and realised things were not going right.

Just like over 10 million of my compatriots, over the next days I was shaking off the shock. Most of us were aware the risk of Mr Trzaskowski’s defeat was high, but hoping for the best prevailed over fearing the worst. We need to go through a sense of mourning and learn to live with the choice made under rules of democracy. President in Poland has little power, his biggest tool is the right to veto laws submitted by a government. This partly explains why the election result reflected mandate of the coalitional government to pursue certain policies.

Given the cumulation of mistakes made in the campaign and clumsiness of the current government, with hindsight it turns out Mr Trzaskowski did not deserve a victory. Taking into account all circumstances, it appears the 49.11% score is pretty good. It stands for a percentage of Poles who do not want their homeland to be arranged by Mr Nawrocki, Mr Kaczyński, Mr Mentzen, Mr Braun and the likes.

The defeat should give food for thought also to ordinary people, educated, affluent, living in large cities. We live in a bubble, we know nothing about provincial Poland and its inhabitants, we are not capable of reaching out for them.

The world has begun to move too fast. Those who do not catch up with it and feel lost, lean towards the far-right parties, which do not distinguish between several shades of grey. They paint a black-or-white picture, much easier to grasp and more convincing to those who got lost. Besides, the right-wing have mastered the art of using social media to spread information and target audience with straightforward messages, often containing disinformation. In a world of people addicted to short films and not taking trouble to verify information they receive, the far-right have gotten the edge over centrist and mild leftist groupings. Poland is hence not a lonely island, with Trump’s victory in the USA being the best evidence for it. Democrats keep licking wounds after his victory, as despite their quite decent, but bland 4-year rule, ordinary people have turned their backs on them.

Over 10.2 million votes for Mr Trzaskowski, just under 370 thousand fewer than Mr Nawrocki scored, ought to bear a testimony of a voice of modern, tolerant and pro-European Poland, a voice of stalwart objection to Poland of right-wing politicians’ dreams. We need to stand up for values we cherish and must not be passive if evil is done.

Off for holidays to the mountains soon, the next post in two weeks. 

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.

Marching

I missed it on 4 June 2023, when I was in Wisła. I missed it on 1 October 2023 when I was in Italy. The third time must have been lucky.

On Monday morning many Poles woke up scared of prospects of rising popularity of extreme right-wing politicians. The rude awakening has not been belated. It mobilised the democratic electorate and thus the wind is slowly taken off Karol Nawrocki’s sails.

Odds of Mr Trzaskowski were raised by new facts on Mr Nawrocki’s past coming into the light, uneven performance of both candidates in the TV debate on Friday and Mr Trzaskowski superb performance in an interview with Mr Mentzen yesterday, contrasting with servility of his rival displayed on Thursday. If today’s march has anyhow strengthened support to Mr Trzaskowski, it was worth spending most of Sunday walking with over 100,000 fellow participants.

I feared how my spine and hips would withstand over three hours of standing upright or ambling, but I feel unexpectedly well (after an hour of rest). Vote wisely next week!

The presidential race in 2025 - first battle

After the introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I have not caught up with commentaries.

The rivalry remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal, predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.

The debate hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.

On Friday before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.

The first figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m. was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.

In late afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski (1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score.

Knowing turnout readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand. The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.

The official exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15% of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%, it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.

Before the we face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.

I believe in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat. Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!

Polish presidential election in 2025 – the candidates

How time flies! This is the fourth presidential election in my homeland commented on this blog. In 2010 the vote was held in the shadow of the Smolenskair crash. In 2015 the election paved the way to PiS getting hold of power for 8 years. In 2020 the vote had to be postponed due to the pandemic.

Let’s have a subjective overview of candidates voters in Poland will be able to choose from on 18 May 2025.

Rafał Trzaskowski became a natural contender after in 2020, upon being swapped for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, in not entirely fair duel, scored 49% of votes. Five years ago his freshness added him popularity. Today, he seems to have squandered some of energy, faith and hope put in him. In this campaign he buries a burden of fatigue with liberal-leftist coalition having majority in the Polish parliament since late 2023. For many his biggest merit is handsomeness and fluency in foreign languages. For right-wing wackos he embodies all evils of the liberal elites and is a symbol of progressive leftist agenda. I fear his crew might fire up “Kamala” protocol which will not earn him more voters but might discourage floating electorate from putting a cross against him. His biggest asset seems to be his wife, starkly contrasting with the incumbent first lady.

Karol Nawrocki, formally a “civic” candidate, but effectively avidly supported by PiS. Nearly unknown a few months ago, enjoys support in polls a few percentage points lower than the party backing him. Apparently not a bright spark, lacks clear opinions on many issues, when asked directly, gives evasive answers. If he does not make it to the run-off, which is conceivable, a major reshuffle in Polish politics might be in the offing.

Sławomir Mentzen, burnt and bruised after his defeat in the parliamentary election in 2023, has learnt from mistakes made then. He ousted madcaps such as Grzegorz Braun and Janusz Korwin-Mikke from Konfederosja and now his party has a façade of a civilised right-wing grouping. Beware though, he and his cronies remain pernicious. In polls he has recently caught up with Mr Nawrocki, now they go neck in neck. The hideous bloke is less likely to win the election than the PiS-backed candidate, but his victory in the long-term would be more detrimental to Poland.

Szymon Hołownia, a rising star of the presidential election in 2020, then a superb speaker of the parliament, currently is not fighting for presidency, but to reinforce his grouping, so that it does not fall below 5%. I somewhat regret never voting for him, as he deserved it. Sadly, the potential has been wasted. I hope before the run-off he clearly hands over his support to Mr Trzaskowski.

The two leftist candidates – Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg probably have cumulative support of approximately 5%. Left-wing electorate would rather cast votes for Mr Trzaskowski right away.

Other contenders are unlikely to get more than 2% of votes each, hence their participation in the race is rather for the sake of marking their presence in politics, rather than chasing the actual victory.

Odds of another post on the campaign before the election day are rather tiny, unless an unforeseen twist of action changes my mind and will prompt me to focus my attention on politics.

In the eve of narcissistic psychopath being sworn in

Usually when a populist gets hold of power, their rein turns out to be less scary than predicted. I put this mellowing out down to their strategy of flattering voters with hollow promises and safety valves embedded in democratic systems (unless populists cling to power for years and dismantle civilised institutions as Mr Orban and his cronies have done in Germany). Same might be the case with Donald Trump and my fear of him taking over is combined with some hopes he does screw it up worldwide all along.

In his campaign he promised to proscribe a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. Currently his advisors claim a realistic time horizon to bring the war to a halt is between 100 days and 6 months. The longer it takes, the better. Each day of warfare depletes Russia's resources and buys Europe time to prepare for a widespread aggression towards NATO. Nevertheless, Mr Trump will insist on impacting the course of the conflict as thus he will prove his might and powerfulness.

USA's leading role in NATO as a guarantor of western Europe's stability and safety is in question. Europe will be to some extent left to its own devices. Maybe Mr Trump's presidency will be a wake-up call for Europe to get its act together, as simple matters such as shifting to daylight saving time for the entire year are beyond its bureaucrats' decision-making capacity.

Mr Trump's considerations of taking over Canada or having designs on Greenland are so far the biggest red flags. Wladimir Putin, in a television appaerance just before its army invaded Ukraine, denied that Ukraine's right to exist. I believe the redneck president will confine to talking his head off and any conquest of non-US territories will be foiled by international treaties.

The crony of Mr Trump I currently fear more is Elon Musk. Much more brazen and having the grip over the fourth estate, looms as a bigger peril than the elderly redneck. Both guys are psychopathic personalities with lust for power, so I sincerely hope they fall out before long. Even if this happens, separately they will remain harmful.

The paragraph above reminds me of my recent fourth anniversary of joining Twitter, then not controlled by Mr Musk. I use it less frequently, rarely contribute, but have not deleted my account there just to have access to contents smart people still share there. Or should I vote with my legs and give it up altogether, to undermine Musk's empire of evil possibly much?

Warfare musings

Forecasts of the Ukraine war development for the summer months were bleak. The Ukrainian defence was foreseen to break down, the invaders, apart from trespassing into the Ukrainian territory, were supposed to provocatively, yet tentatively attempt to disturb peace in the Baltic countries. Fortunately, only a minor part of those predictions proved right.

And then all of the sudden, on 6 August 2024, the Ukrainian army successfully moved the warfare into the territory of the enemy, launching the first incidence of was in the territory of russia or its soviet predecessor since WW2. The counter-attack carries on, with the invaders still shocked their own land has become a battleground.

The intrusion into a poorly-defended Kursk region were meant to prompt the invaders to shift some regiments from Donbas region, where things are not going well and the frontline is slowly progressing west. In simple words, in regions occupied since 2014, Ukraine is being defeated.

If the warfare carries on, 19 November 2024 will be the 1,000th day since its onset. The plan of the dictator was to take over Kyiv within a few days and install a mock-up government out there. Despite running rings around the capital of Ukraine, wreaking destruction and committing genocide, it has not worked out. Ukraine keeps holding strong and the war is far from settlement.

With the imminent attrition of both sides, 3 scenarios can be considered.
The first one - Ukraine wins. Despite ongoing supplies of arms from the West (leave out now who takes over as a president of the United States soon), Ukraine lacks resources to do so.
The second one - Russia wins - unlikely in short-term perspective, sadly conceivable in 2 or 3 years. It would pave the way for their next conquers, also to combat NATO countries.
The third one - both parties are fed up with the warfare and decide to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine loses part of its territory, the invaders ease up for a while. After a while the dictator rebuilds its potential and strikes again.

The old saying if you want peace brace yourself for a war has not gone outdated. With Russia ruled and weapon-equipped as it is now, we will not feel safe for many years. A full-scale invasion into CEE seems unimaginable, but a full-blown warfare is not essential to wreak havoc in the region. Deterrents must be in place, to discourage the dictator from a confrontation with NATO. Besides, unity of allies has to be manifested. For such reason I keep fingers crossed for the victory of Kamala Harris in November.

Two years past the invasion

2 years and 1 days past the day the russian army launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, I am looking back at my coverage of those days. For some time I have not been an ardent blogger, but I carry on to save my thoughts for posterity and for myself. Those first days of war were a shock. Until recently majority of us got accustomed to the cruelty behind Poland's eastern border, especially since for months fights on the front were not moving on.

Currently there are more and more reports on scales tipped towards the invaders and military intelligence notes telling despite its failure in the Ukraine, Russia is slowly preparing for a war against NATO, which might break out in 3 to 5 years.

Politicians from countries neighbouring on russia began to speak openly about the eventuality of a war. Those at the biggest peril are:
- Sweden (not a NATO member, the country has not experienced war since 1815),
- Finland (a NATO member since April 2023, badly tainted by Soviets during WW2, having the longest border strip with russia in Europe),
- Norway (remember it borders russia at the northern edge of the continent),
- Baltic countries (used to be a part of the soviet empire for half a century, thus being a natural target),
- Poland (russia's everlasting enemy as a matter of principle) and
- Moldova (a god-forsaken land between Ukraine and Romania).

Preparations for the war should move from a verbal realm into actions, especially military training and manufacturing. It needs to be stressed Europe has supported Ukraine with its own military resources, but over that time effort to rebuild Europe's depleted defence capacity have not been taken. Several countries have run out of their stocks of ammunition or military vehicles, thus NATO's ability to ward off an attack is impaired. Even if the armaments serve a purpose of a deterrent, they are worthwhile (a decade ago I would argue military spending is a waste of public money). Nevertheless the united Europe seems too sluggish. For many years EU countries have not managed too agree on ceasing to move clocks back and forth and switching to daylight saving time, so will they be able to get their act together, especially if for Western Europe the russian soldiers are thousands kilometres away.

Putin's army did not conquer Ukraine, but incurred severe losses in the battlefields. Human-wise, its resources are limited, yet sending millions of conscripts to die in a warfare has never been a problem to the uncivilised empire. Resourse-wise, military manufacturings is running at full blast and there are signs the russian economy has been switched into the military mode. Economic sanctions imposed on russia are bypassed (through countries such as Armenia or Kazakhstan), despite being cut off from modern technologies, russia is not on its knees.

Whatever fate Ukraine meets, Europe has to support it to help the evil invader bleed out there. There era of peace in Europe might soon be over, but let's buy time to defer the moments it goes down in history.

Currently the biggest threat lies in the USA, where the presidential election is due in less than 9 months. If the narcistic, unpredictable psychopat wins, Europe will have reasons to quake. NATO's power largely hinges upon the defence power its overseas ally.

The picture to the right is the cover most recent issue of "Wprost" weekly. Keeping fingers crossed for its poor predictive power, ley ot be contrary to its cartoonist's illustratory skills.

Post-election fears

The final outcome of the election was actually above expectations, yet still below some hopes. Formally, PiS won the plebiscite, but effectively by getting 3.96 million fewer votes than 3 committees of the democratic opposition, it lost 41 seats in the lower house in the parliament in comparison to their result after the election in 2019. With 194 out of 460 seats, PiS now stands no chance to wield power, as the united opposition has 248 deputies in total.

For the time being PiSites intend to step down democratically, but with one attempt to call the government by the party which won the election, the moment Tusk and company take charge of Poland will likely be put back by a few weeks, probably until pre-Christmas days. Although voters of the outgoing ruling party are livid, there no serious intention to dispute the election results as Donald Trump's supporters breaking into Capitol building on 6 January 2021 did.

Over the past 8 years, we had Zjednoczona Prawica (formally a coalition of three parties which won the elections as one committee) in power stand-alone, not needing alliance with any other party to keep the majority. Soon we will have a government made up of three committees, from seven political groupings. Their common denominator is commitment to liberal democracy, rule of law and pro-European stance. Their agendas vary in several social and economic issues. Forming a long-lasting ruling coalition will involve a lot of compromising.

The new government will be in a difficult position finance-wise. Spending spree was in overdrive and people have got accustomed to being given gifts (financed from taxes they pay). Confronted with a prospect of a mammoth budget deficit in 2024 they will face uneasy decisions whether to extend some programmes (espiecially anti-inflation shield).

I basically don't expect much from the new government. I have merely four basic wishes to those I have given a mandate to run my country.

Firstly, run public finances prudently and long-sightedly.

Secondly, reinstate law and order in public institutions mangled by PiS, but do so without violating the law.

Thirdly, call people responsible for wrongdoing to account. So much evil has been done in last 8 years, so those guilty of it must not escape punishment. When doing so, act within the boundaries of law and avoid a revenge.

Fourthly, restore good relationships with our partners in the EU and unlock the flow of money from the National Recovery Plan. Poland badly needs it.

I realise knocking PiS out of power will not solve all problems instantly. It is just a beginning of a long walk towards a recovery.

I fear the nascent coalition will be fragile, not only due to divergent agendas of particular groupings, but also because personal ambitions of specific politicians.

The coming months will put political maturity of the democratic opposition's leaders to the test. Poland has been freed up from the hands of the quasi-authoritarian regimes. Poles have pinned hopes in them and they must not waste it by not seeing further than ends of their noses.

The reshuffle in the parliament has not coincided with a presidential election. Andrzej Duda's tenure ends in August 2025, but by that time he might be a stumbling block for attempts to reverse the harms done by PiS. The opposition, even with Konfederosja, is short of 60% tally required to reject a presidential veto.

I am keeping fingers crossed for the newly elected parliamentary majority, but will be reviewing them critically if they deserve.

The Polish parliamentary election in 2023

I hardly can believe this has all happened.

The campaign by the end of September was drab and lacklustre. PiS was bound to win, yet not to reap the majority of seats in the lower house. Five parties or less were about to cross the score threshold, with Trzecia Droga being the most likely to drop off.

On 1 October hundreds of thousands (or over a million) people marched through the streets of Warsaw, rallying to show a middle finger to the ruling party. From that day the campaign grew apace. Petrol stations were running out of underpriced fuel suddenly became a symbol of how PiS wanted to buy off voters. I presume the march and the fuel crisis have taken a bit off wind of the ruling party’s sails. In polls PiS scored some 5 percentage points more than Koalicja Obywatelska being the main grouping in the opposition.

The only country-wide debate in this campaign was hosted by the government-controlled propagandist television. Both the current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and opposition’s leader Donald Tusk did not fare well during the squabble, but the ultimate winner of the debate turned out to be Szymon Hołownia, a co-leader Trzecia Droga. With his superb performance he at least secured a score well in excess of 8% (being a parliament entry threshold for coalitions).

The days in the run-up to the election were quite eventful. All in all we observed a scaremongering campaign of two main parties trying to defame one another, rather than present their agenda for the coming years.

The last polls before the election-time silence indicated PiS would win the vote, however even with Konfederosja they would not secure majority in the lower house of the parliament.

A few weeks ago I planned to vote somewhere in provincial Poland. Having read of voting tourism being a form of gambling, I ditched the idea and eventually cast my ballot in the local polling station.

In the afternoon, an X (formerly Twitter) screening mode went on. Leaking exit polls results indicated PiS was to win the election, some 4 – 5 percentage points ahead of KO. The proportion remained unchanged until polling stations were being closed (or queues outside them cut off).

Waiting for the story to unfold. Due to record-high turnout of 72.9% the actual results might deviate from the exit polls, but the winner and the runner-up are unlikely to swap their position. The major question mark is the score of Konfederosja, in the exit poll at mere 6.2%, well below forecasts. My calculations shows even if the right-wing wackos drop off, PiS will still be some 20 seats short of majority.

I would not rule out an early election in a few months…

Pre-election gloom

As the end of the current parliament term draws near, I realise Poles have endured nearly 8 years of PiS in power. I also realise the period covers almost a half of my formal adulthood. As they were winning the election in October 2015, I was 27, single, rank-and-file analyst and still lived with my parents in Nowa Iwiczna. As of now I am in the third serious relationship since then, after two promotions, residing in my own flat in Ursynów – basically except for being 8 years older, I seem better off. A pity in many realms Poland is worse off or made steps back in development.

In early years of PiS in power people would take to the streets in masses to stand up for democratic principles. With time, as the marches did not undermine the unfettered authority of the ruling party, the intensity of street demonstrations faded. There were some spurts, as the protest against rigorous pro-life law changes in October 2020, a stay-in-the-EU march in October 2021 – which I both attended. This year I did not take part in the opposition’s march on 4 June (I was in Wisła) and on account of holidaying in Italy I will not join the crowds on the streets of Warsaw on 1 October, two weeks before the election.

Fatigue is a natural form of adjustment to how my country is being slowly demolished. Just like with any disruptive situation – the first reaction is a shock (recall the examples of COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 or the invasion to Ukraine in February 2022) then the public get accustomed to what is going on, event if this involves hundreds of deaths daily. PiS in power does not kill humans, but in most Poles it eradicated the hope that the country might be run in a better way.

The current polls indicate PiS is going to win the election, but very few surveys give the party a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament. The three parties of the democratic opposition, provided they all (hopefully) pass the parliament entry threshold, are also unlikely to get the majority. This means Konfederacja, the far-right-wind freak grouping currently rising to become the third player in the Polish politics, will be in a position to tip the scales during the key votes in the parliament. As Konfederosja declares to be an anti-systemic creature, it currently does not intend to enter a coalition with anyone, which looms a post-election stand-off and a possibility of next parliamentary election called in early 2024.

This year the election will be accompanied by a ludicrous referendum, which actually will be a barometer of support to the current government. As the opposition urges its electorate to boycott the plebiscite by refusing the to take the referendum card (otherwise a voter boosts turnout), the vote will effectively not be confidential. Since 50% turnout will not be achieved, I advise if opposition’s voters fear reactions of the communities in provincial polling stations, they should take the referendum cards – to cast a vote in line with one’s conscience is more important that boycotting the plebiscite.

The election will also not be equal. Numbers of lower house deputies elected from specific constituencies has not been revised since 2011. Over that time the number of voters in cities increased, so they are under-represented in the lower house, while in provincial Poland – decreased. This might mean a few more seats for PiS, much more popular far from big cities. The fix for it for a voters from Warsaw will be to pick up a certificate entitling to vote anywhere in Poland, not just in your local polling station. So on 15 October quite probably I will not be proudly boosting the turnout in Ursynów, but will venture to a place where my vote will have a bigger weight than I Warsaw.

Those more involved might become scrutineers, overseeing the voting and vote counting in polling stations.

The campaign is going to kick off for good after this weekend, with the end of school holidays. I fear it will be predictable, lacklustre and full of below-the-belt blows dealt by the ruling party. I suppose the outcome might be impacted by an event on the home straight, less than a week before the vote. I also keep fingers crossed for bad weather. In provincial Poland fewer people might take the trouble to go to polling stations, while inhabitants of big cities will not venture beyond town to make use of the last gasps of late summer and will not risk skipping their civic duty.

On prices rising

Michael has beaten it to me, with a splendid account of what Poles have to face up to these days. The imminent price growth has been a par for the course since pre-pandemic times. Recent outburst of public outrage over prime minister Morawiecki’s purchase of inflation-indexed government bonds has left me unimpressed. I bought such securities for the first time in July 2019; my grasp of economics told me to protect against recklessly loose fiscal and monetary policies. Time has proven me right, while the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have amplified the effects of local policy errors.

Looking back at the autumn 2021, when I visited underprivileged families as a volunteer of Szlachetna Paczka, I remember well people complaining about rising costs of living, especially more expensive food, electricity and heating. I worried this could send millions of people into poverty if prices of essential goods keep rising like that. I also can boast of predicting the threat of stagflation which was in the offing even without warfare on the horizon.

The factors which to some extent will continue to drive prices up are: the pandemic (not really likely to ease off for good), the fight against climate changes (which prompts consumers to change their habits) and the sanctions against Russia. The very latter will sadly hit more those who rightly aim to punish Russia for its cruelty, than the Russians, who for centuries have been accustomed to depravity.

The struggle which looms ahead of Poles now is multi-faceted.

Food prices will not go down due to droughts, shortages of fertilizers and higher energy prices. Climate change and negative supply shocks related to the war in Ukraine will push millions into famine, while residents of the developed countries will need to spend larger parts of their household budgets for nutrition.

Dwelling upkeep costs will not go down as well. They will be kept high by the push for the greener energy and decreased supply of fossil fuels from Russia. This will be painful for several poorer Poles, who will need to save on virtually everything to keep their houses warm during the coming winter. I believe we will all need to give up on some thermal comfort in months ahead and withstand temperatures of +18C in our interiors. Appallingly, some European countries, such as Germany and Austria are about to switch on their once shut down coal-burnt power plants, committing a sin of not restarting their nuclear power plants whose environmental impact is incomparably lower than of burning coal.

Fuel prices have gone up by some 50% vs. February 2022 and they might decline a but, yet given the cost of transport is included in nearly every price, even without direct exposure to petrol stations’ price lists, everyone will be worse off. So far, judging by traffic volumes, few people have given up on motoring in favour of public transport, cycling or walking – does not bode well for the economy, for the climate and for the public health.

What is being first hit by the inflation is demand for discretionary, non-essential goods. But if are to gain control over the surging prices, we must stop chasing such goods, resist the temptation to flee money. The circulation of money has to be contained, hence lending ought to be curbed and saving should be encouraged.

I have no good news for you. The best times for our civilisation are already past us. We have to brace ourselves for austerity unseen since decades. Many of us will need to watch every zloty before spending it. Our consumer habits will need to be rethought. Wisdom and sustainability will have to take over. Sharing will have to become an alternative to buying.

Besides, I am glad personally I am not impacted badly by the inflation. I put aside less money monthly, but do not have to abandon any expenses for purely financial reasons (I drive even less, but not because I cannot afford to fill up my car). My savings are shielded reasonably well from the inflation. Each day I am thankful for the sense of financial security. I hope this gratitude fends off the evil, albeit the outbreak of war east of Poland, being a tragedy to millions of innocent people, reminds nothing can be taken for granted.

Don’t look up – film review

A belated review (though Michael beats it to me), since I watched the film on 27 December, after reading several recommendations on Twitter on it.

My very first reaction before watching the film was that the title had been translated incorrectly into Polish. Don’t look up sounded to me as nie sprawdzaj, nie weryfikuj informacji. Such worked my fondness of phrasal verbs, yet I was wrong. I literally tells you not to look at the sky.

The film which premiered in cinemas on 10 December 2021 and on Netflix on Christmas Eve went absolutely viral among well-educated people I follow on Twitter during Christmas. While at my parents’ for Yuletide I could not watch it, my only access to Netflix is via application on my TV set (shared account).

Michael as he summarises the plot claims the film, dwells on dumbed down masses. The first word which sprang to my mind when I tried to describe Don’t look up with one word was ignorance. Overwhelming, dazzling, overpowering ignorance individuals feel comfortable with. A portrait of omnipresent ignorance and a bunch of pundits trying to tear down the walls of ignorance to save the planet is dejecting.

While watching the film I saw two parallels. First was about early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. In late 2019 Chinese authorities strived hard to shut mouths of doctors who warned of a perilous new virus, then their reaction to contain the spread of the virus was delayed. They failed to nip it in the bud, so now we have what we have. Second was about the global warming, which unlike the pandemic is a relatively slow process with long-term rather than immediate implications. Experts presage how bad it might get in a few decades, but politicians remain deaf to it or make inconsistent moves to combat it or just pretend they do something, not to wind up their voters with inconvenient decisions to curb carbon dioxide emission.

If I were to choose one picture which conveys the same message as the film, I would opt for the one to the right. I first saw it nearly a year ago, in the context of people who worship self-styled experts who claim SARS-CoV-2 does not exist / is as dangerous as ordinary flu, mask and vaccinations do not work, etc. Those individuals are either too thoughtless or too cowardly to face the complex situation the mankind need to get to grips with. Some humans have a tendency to deny facts which are inconvenient to them, searching for a comfort and peace of mind. I realise why this happens, but advise to rise above it.

The film deftly depicts the worst human traits – greed, selfishness, unjustified self-esteem, ignorance, laziness and many more. The moving picture is well-crafted, but has left me exhausted after watching it. If the film is meant to be an eye-opener for many, I hope it keeps going viral, though I keep in mind the human memory is short-lasting and it soon will be forgotten.

The New Deal or the New Scam?

I have used the reverse translation method to do Nowy Ład into English, as Roosevelt’s New Deal agenda is commonly translated into Polish as such. The Nowy ład has also been immediately dubbed Nowy Wał by critics of the government, for which I use term in the title of the post.

It has taken me a few days to catch up with the document. Since the quality of media coverage in Poland is on decline, same as journalists’ grasp of economics, I have decided to take more than a glimpse at the source document, before drawing any conclusions. Despite my dislike for the government, I am trying to take an unbiased look.

The agenda is a leap forward, to keep up the support by the parliamentary election in 2023 and in the meantime to buy off some voters. People have to forget about the trauma of the pandemic and over 100,000 excess deaths the country will have reported by the time the epidemic is truly over.

The very document is just a blueprint of what PiSites want to reform in Poland by 2030, full of general catchwords, lofty intentions and bragging about recent successes. At such level and stage lacking details, but setting objectives. I shall focus on commenting just a few of them.

1.  Increasing the health care spending to 7% of GDP – a commendable goal, yet allocation of money must be wise between available resources. As three decades of not sorted out problems of the state-run health service in Poland prove, any government can sink an infinite amount of money into the system, but in order to make it operate efficiently and patient-friendly, structural problems need to be tacked.

2.  Raising the tax allowance to PLN 30,000 is a step that moves us closer to standards of taxation in the civilised world, where those earning the minimum wage pay almost no tax.

3.  The document mentions a deductible for the middle class, i.e. those whose yearly earnings are in the range from PLN 70,000 to PLN 130,000 – an interesting idea, yet without any details. This point has not appeared in the media coverage.

4.  The threshold for the second tax bracket is to be raised from PLN 85,528 (at which it has stood since 2009) to PLN 120,000 which still does not make up for accumulated inflation over the last 13 years, yet brings some relief to the middle class.

5.  Remote working in non-pandemic times should be finally governed by law (even sooner), ensuring the employee gets compensated for their house maintenance expenses related to home office – at last.

6.  I searched in the document for the provision under which the health care contribution will no longer be deducted from taxable income and have not found it. If such intention does hold true, it will offset positive effects of points 2, 3 and 4.

7.  Property purchase equity is to be guaranteed by the government. Here I am the most sceptical. All programmes aimed at the housing markets pump up property prices (making them less affordable) and benefit banks as mortgage lenders. The scheme is to include a cap on price per square metre, but it will either be sky-high or exclude most properties in large cities from the programme. I would call for a programme aimed at increasing supply of dwelling, yet in a civilised way.

8.  The state is to become an important investor and to create directly or indirectly 500,000 jobs. I am wary of this – free market allocates resources more efficiently, but in Europe and in the USA governments pursue sizeable recovery programmes, so Poland just falls into line.

9.  The tax burden for enterprises to be lower – fine, yet in Poland not the level of taxes, but the instability od regulations and extent to which they are complicated make up a problem.

10. The pension system with the current pension age (60 for women, 65 for men) is not sustainable and the document does not address that issue.

The costs of the agenda have been presented in the document, yet funding sources have not been specified. Any government before it begins to give out money has to collect it in taxes or run up debts. Do bear in mind there is no such thing as a free lunch in economics.