Having shaken off

Four months past the presidential election I can confess in the run-off I voted for Mr Trzaskowski with some disgust. With no doubts, aware that my vote was primarily against Mr Nawrocki, driven my common sense. My disgust reached its peak when he prematurely announced his victory based on exit polls, giving him a tiny lead, far below the error margin of 2 percentage points. In the next days, along with over 10 million of voters I imploded into a short mourning, but got over it quickly. Two days after his defeat Mr Trzaskowski returned to his office and carried on as a mayor of Warsaw. He did what residents of the capital had given him a mandate to do, focused on running the city and kept away from country-wide politics, especially from the dispute on allegedly rigged election.

With time I Mr Trzaskowski has evolved in my mind to man being a class of his own. My disgust has faded away and has given way to a strong sense of a properly fulfilled duty. In retrospect, I am strongly convinced I voted for the most suitable candidate.

Mr Trzaskowski, though active as a mayor of Warsaw, shunned interviews with journalists until 26 September 2025, when he faced a (belated) barrage of questions from media representatives and youngsters. I have also watched it belatedly, however recommend you sacrifice 80 minutes of your precious time to listen or watch the interview in which Mr Trzaskowski was not spared inconvenient questions.

A mature man is capable of conceding his defeat, admitting mistakes he has made and learning from them. This is what Mr Trzaskowski is like. He appears wiser than his political entourage and most of his voters. He correctly urges not to bridle at reality nor to antagonise those who voted for his rival. Poking fun at Mr Nawrocki, as Mr Trzaskowski points out, is counterproductive and only solidifies the current presidents’ hangers-on. Mr Nawrocki’s victory (the scale of irregularities,which by all means ought to be sorted out, would not have brought his score below 50.6%) embodies what majority of Poles have opted for. We need to face the music, realise what has led to such choice and get our act together to minimise the number of seats in the parliament right-wing parties garner in the parliamentary election in 2027.

Mr Trzaskowski gently distances himself from the government, whose ineptitude was one of crucial drivers of his defeat, however calls for unity if the democratic coalition is not to succumb to right-wing opponents.

At the end, when addressing adolescents, he implores them not to break down, warrants not to lick wounds. No one will turn back time, we need to move ahead, pull up sleeves and build modern and tolerant Poland and stem the nationalist flood.

Mr Trzaskowski is not a spick-and-span handsome chap from a picture. He is flesh and bones. His elections staff and political entourage have got it wrong several times during the campaign, Mr Trzaskowski himself has not made any fundamental mistake. The more time lapses from the election, the more I realise a candidate being a symbol of liberal-leftist elites could not stand a chance to win the presidential election is a conservative country in times when the entire world is swerving right. His score of 49% is an accomplishment I am putting down to a his repulsive rival, abhorrent enough to mobilise liberal and leftist electorate to vote against him.

Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Post-election fears

The final outcome of the election was actually above expectations, yet still below some hopes. Formally, PiS won the plebiscite, but effectively by getting 3.96 million fewer votes than 3 committees of the democratic opposition, it lost 41 seats in the lower house in the parliament in comparison to their result after the election in 2019. With 194 out of 460 seats, PiS now stands no chance to wield power, as the united opposition has 248 deputies in total.

For the time being PiSites intend to step down democratically, but with one attempt to call the government by the party which won the election, the moment Tusk and company take charge of Poland will likely be put back by a few weeks, probably until pre-Christmas days. Although voters of the outgoing ruling party are livid, there no serious intention to dispute the election results as Donald Trump's supporters breaking into Capitol building on 6 January 2021 did.

Over the past 8 years, we had Zjednoczona Prawica (formally a coalition of three parties which won the elections as one committee) in power stand-alone, not needing alliance with any other party to keep the majority. Soon we will have a government made up of three committees, from seven political groupings. Their common denominator is commitment to liberal democracy, rule of law and pro-European stance. Their agendas vary in several social and economic issues. Forming a long-lasting ruling coalition will involve a lot of compromising.

The new government will be in a difficult position finance-wise. Spending spree was in overdrive and people have got accustomed to being given gifts (financed from taxes they pay). Confronted with a prospect of a mammoth budget deficit in 2024 they will face uneasy decisions whether to extend some programmes (espiecially anti-inflation shield).

I basically don't expect much from the new government. I have merely four basic wishes to those I have given a mandate to run my country.

Firstly, run public finances prudently and long-sightedly.

Secondly, reinstate law and order in public institutions mangled by PiS, but do so without violating the law.

Thirdly, call people responsible for wrongdoing to account. So much evil has been done in last 8 years, so those guilty of it must not escape punishment. When doing so, act within the boundaries of law and avoid a revenge.

Fourthly, restore good relationships with our partners in the EU and unlock the flow of money from the National Recovery Plan. Poland badly needs it.

I realise knocking PiS out of power will not solve all problems instantly. It is just a beginning of a long walk towards a recovery.

I fear the nascent coalition will be fragile, not only due to divergent agendas of particular groupings, but also because personal ambitions of specific politicians.

The coming months will put political maturity of the democratic opposition's leaders to the test. Poland has been freed up from the hands of the quasi-authoritarian regimes. Poles have pinned hopes in them and they must not waste it by not seeing further than ends of their noses.

The reshuffle in the parliament has not coincided with a presidential election. Andrzej Duda's tenure ends in August 2025, but by that time he might be a stumbling block for attempts to reverse the harms done by PiS. The opposition, even with Konfederosja, is short of 60% tally required to reject a presidential veto.

I am keeping fingers crossed for the newly elected parliamentary majority, but will be reviewing them critically if they deserve.

The Polish parliamentary election in 2023

I hardly can believe this has all happened.

The campaign by the end of September was drab and lacklustre. PiS was bound to win, yet not to reap the majority of seats in the lower house. Five parties or less were about to cross the score threshold, with Trzecia Droga being the most likely to drop off.

On 1 October hundreds of thousands (or over a million) people marched through the streets of Warsaw, rallying to show a middle finger to the ruling party. From that day the campaign grew apace. Petrol stations were running out of underpriced fuel suddenly became a symbol of how PiS wanted to buy off voters. I presume the march and the fuel crisis have taken a bit off wind of the ruling party’s sails. In polls PiS scored some 5 percentage points more than Koalicja Obywatelska being the main grouping in the opposition.

The only country-wide debate in this campaign was hosted by the government-controlled propagandist television. Both the current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and opposition’s leader Donald Tusk did not fare well during the squabble, but the ultimate winner of the debate turned out to be Szymon Hołownia, a co-leader Trzecia Droga. With his superb performance he at least secured a score well in excess of 8% (being a parliament entry threshold for coalitions).

The days in the run-up to the election were quite eventful. All in all we observed a scaremongering campaign of two main parties trying to defame one another, rather than present their agenda for the coming years.

The last polls before the election-time silence indicated PiS would win the vote, however even with Konfederosja they would not secure majority in the lower house of the parliament.

A few weeks ago I planned to vote somewhere in provincial Poland. Having read of voting tourism being a form of gambling, I ditched the idea and eventually cast my ballot in the local polling station.

In the afternoon, an X (formerly Twitter) screening mode went on. Leaking exit polls results indicated PiS was to win the election, some 4 – 5 percentage points ahead of KO. The proportion remained unchanged until polling stations were being closed (or queues outside them cut off).

Waiting for the story to unfold. Due to record-high turnout of 72.9% the actual results might deviate from the exit polls, but the winner and the runner-up are unlikely to swap their position. The major question mark is the score of Konfederosja, in the exit poll at mere 6.2%, well below forecasts. My calculations shows even if the right-wing wackos drop off, PiS will still be some 20 seats short of majority.

I would not rule out an early election in a few months…

Pre-election gloom

As the end of the current parliament term draws near, I realise Poles have endured nearly 8 years of PiS in power. I also realise the period covers almost a half of my formal adulthood. As they were winning the election in October 2015, I was 27, single, rank-and-file analyst and still lived with my parents in Nowa Iwiczna. As of now I am in the third serious relationship since then, after two promotions, residing in my own flat in Ursynów – basically except for being 8 years older, I seem better off. A pity in many realms Poland is worse off or made steps back in development.

In early years of PiS in power people would take to the streets in masses to stand up for democratic principles. With time, as the marches did not undermine the unfettered authority of the ruling party, the intensity of street demonstrations faded. There were some spurts, as the protest against rigorous pro-life law changes in October 2020, a stay-in-the-EU march in October 2021 – which I both attended. This year I did not take part in the opposition’s march on 4 June (I was in Wisła) and on account of holidaying in Italy I will not join the crowds on the streets of Warsaw on 1 October, two weeks before the election.

Fatigue is a natural form of adjustment to how my country is being slowly demolished. Just like with any disruptive situation – the first reaction is a shock (recall the examples of COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 or the invasion to Ukraine in February 2022) then the public get accustomed to what is going on, event if this involves hundreds of deaths daily. PiS in power does not kill humans, but in most Poles it eradicated the hope that the country might be run in a better way.

The current polls indicate PiS is going to win the election, but very few surveys give the party a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament. The three parties of the democratic opposition, provided they all (hopefully) pass the parliament entry threshold, are also unlikely to get the majority. This means Konfederacja, the far-right-wind freak grouping currently rising to become the third player in the Polish politics, will be in a position to tip the scales during the key votes in the parliament. As Konfederosja declares to be an anti-systemic creature, it currently does not intend to enter a coalition with anyone, which looms a post-election stand-off and a possibility of next parliamentary election called in early 2024.

This year the election will be accompanied by a ludicrous referendum, which actually will be a barometer of support to the current government. As the opposition urges its electorate to boycott the plebiscite by refusing the to take the referendum card (otherwise a voter boosts turnout), the vote will effectively not be confidential. Since 50% turnout will not be achieved, I advise if opposition’s voters fear reactions of the communities in provincial polling stations, they should take the referendum cards – to cast a vote in line with one’s conscience is more important that boycotting the plebiscite.

The election will also not be equal. Numbers of lower house deputies elected from specific constituencies has not been revised since 2011. Over that time the number of voters in cities increased, so they are under-represented in the lower house, while in provincial Poland – decreased. This might mean a few more seats for PiS, much more popular far from big cities. The fix for it for a voters from Warsaw will be to pick up a certificate entitling to vote anywhere in Poland, not just in your local polling station. So on 15 October quite probably I will not be proudly boosting the turnout in Ursynów, but will venture to a place where my vote will have a bigger weight than I Warsaw.

Those more involved might become scrutineers, overseeing the voting and vote counting in polling stations.

The campaign is going to kick off for good after this weekend, with the end of school holidays. I fear it will be predictable, lacklustre and full of below-the-belt blows dealt by the ruling party. I suppose the outcome might be impacted by an event on the home straight, less than a week before the vote. I also keep fingers crossed for bad weather. In provincial Poland fewer people might take the trouble to go to polling stations, while inhabitants of big cities will not venture beyond town to make use of the last gasps of late summer and will not risk skipping their civic duty.

Mayoral election in Rzeszów

In the absence of any country-wide election by the autumn of 2023, a mayoral vote to be held in Rzeszów soon is the only touchstone that can speak volumes of the Polish political arena. One could argue whether the touchstone turns out reliable, yet I would contend it does. Rzeszów is the city with nearly 200,000 inhabitants, while big cities are strongholds of current opposition in Poland, but also is the capital of Podkarpackie province, which for several years has been a bastion of PiS. The blend might produce an outcome which can set directions for politics in Poland, albeit given the time to lapse before the parliamentary election (if not brought forward), but not a long-lasting one.

The election had to be called after the incumbent mayor, in service since 2002, resigned for health-related reasons (long-haul COVID-19). The election was due to be held today, but for epidemic-related reasons were put back until 13 June 2021. I fail to see a health-related rationale for the decision. More than a year into the pandemic, we know how to hold an election in a sanitary regime. Unlike in April or May 2020, we have plenty of decent face masks, sanitizers and know how to handle the virus, which will not disappear within a month and which is not bound to decline further, especially since a full economy opening (including schools) is planned by the end of May and the percentage of vaccinated people is does not suggest we may calm down.

The opposition, though usually busy quarrelling with one another, has decided to back one candidate, a local politician, elected regularly as councillor since 2006. This move might clinch the victory of the candidate, well-recognised by locals and having a track record of political independence. He is on the verge of garnering 50% of votes.

The ruling coalition has initially come up with three candidates, currently only two stay in the game. The governor of Podkarpackie province as a member of the ruling party stands a little chance to make it to the run-off. Her rival formally no longer a party member, but remembered by many as deputy minister of justice, is far more likely to compete with the candidate of the opposition in the run-off.

The last candidate, backed by ostensibly-right grouping, is likely to get a two-digit result (in percent), as he represents the views of those who deny the pandemic and want all restrictions to be lifted immediately.

As tensions in the ruling coalition grow, I wonder whether they decide to call an early election after the pandemic ends, but early enough for voters to remember the last part of it and the moment of overcoming the disease and return to normalcy. That might be the last moment for them to retain the simple majority in the parliament, though getting a percentage of votes above 35% will be a huge challenge.

The day the pen was meant to crack

Woke up at half past six, got up, ate a breakfast, did the morning toiletry, donned a face mask and strolled to the polling station number 606 in Ursynów. I turned up there at 7:40 and queued orderly in a long line of voters. I managed to cast a vote 45 minutes later. Everybody appeared to vote early in order to avoid long queues in the afternoon (heat factor matters as well, except for the pandemic). Social and traditional media have reported long queues in several places in Warsaw in the morning, yet this was not necessarily the increased mobilisation, rather bringing forward the moment of voting to morning hours.

The turnout of 24% at noon was record-high for first five hours of voting, yet one must make allowances for heat and pandemic. Fewer people went to the polls in the afternoon, but with the evening onrush, the final percentage of those who have decided to vote, climbed to record-high 63%.

Over the day I hoped the gap between the winner and the runner-up could reach less than five percentage points, far off the actual mark. My hopes were sadly dashed. My guests (today I invited over some people for the first time during the pandemic) and I were more than disappointed andwe took comfort in some wine (therefore the note is posted with delay, lack of hangover after nearly 4 months of abstaining from drinking is a good signal).

Despite the gap between president Duda and mayor Trzaskowski, both candidates will go neck in neck towards the run-off. Mr Trzaskowski will likely benefit from the support of Mr Hołownia’s voters and Mr Biedroń’s voters, partly from Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz’s voters, while Mr Bosak’s electorate might not be willing to back Mr Duda. Strategically, if other political parties are to thrive in democratic system, in their best interest would to prohibit the monopoly of power in the hands of one party.

The post-election landscape

The opposition’s victory in the Senate election is a combination of (a stroke of) luck and (leaders’) judgement. The strategy to run united in most constituencies has paid off and so far has stood the test of time. PiS, despite numerous attempts to buy off upper house deputies has not managed to undercut the frail (one seat) majority (this does not mean we can be confident no traitor flees the camp of anti-PiS in coming months). The inability of the ruling party to come to terms with the result of the election proves its latent anti-democratic character, while the track record of senators from KO, Lewica and PSL proves the selection of candidates was careful.

The big test for the unity of the ruling coalition (remember PiS has created a government together with its allies from Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie). The latter grouping, whose leader is Mr Gowin, disapproves of the government’s plan to scrap the limit of 30 average salaries above which social security contributions are no longer charged (to avert payments of sky-high pensions in decades). The desperate endeavour to raise more money to the 2020 budget at the expense of next generations is widely criticised, yet no one can be confident whether Mr Gowin finally gives in, or what stance Lewica takes on it (they are about to announce their strategy tomorrow). While Mr Gowin has track record for voting for law he was unhappy with, Lewica has a test to pass to prove they are a responsible, forward-looking leftist party. Sufficient would be their proposal to bring in another tax bracket for the richest (tax progression is a natural element of a leftist agenda) and firm refusal to support solutions which create huge obligations in decades to come.

Disclaimer: the author is materially affected by the “30 wages limit”, hence he refrains from commenting any further on the issue.

Another test for the opposition is the presidential election, due in six months. Donald Tusk has already dispelled all doubts and has quit the fight for presidency. Some say, probably rightly, he fears a defeat with a mediocre incumbent president which is highly probably due to strong negative electorate Mr Tusk has on account of his unpopular decisions. I believe the move is wise and boosts changes to change the resident of the presidential palace.

From the 3 oppositional parties only PSL has chosen their candidate. In the first round I would not vote for Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz, as his views, especially social ones, do not square with mine.

Lewica keeps struggling to find a candidate (who will rather be a male), yet among their core politicians I do not see any charismatic character who would be capable of making it to the run-off.

Koalicja Obywatelska, with clear declaration of Mr Tusk now is about hold an internal election and let its member choose the most suitable runner. Two candidacies which are now present in the social media are Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and Radosław Sikorski. The former lacks charisma and drive to take part in the difficult race in which blows below the belt will be frequent. The latter, as a minister is PiS government in 2005-2006 enchanted with late president Lech Kaczyński, lacks strong anti-PiS credentials which seem necessary to garner votes of leftist voters who must not stay at homes during the run-off if Mr Duda’s re-election is to be averted.

In May 2020 I will end up, again, voting for the lesser of two evils.