To JEST nasza wojna

Dear readers. I put faith in your wisdom and have every confidence if you hear selfish goats from Konfederosja or their likes bleating the war in Ukraine is not our business, you know they are talking f**king rubbish.

Valiant Ukrainian soldiers, with substantial aid from the civilised world, have been keeping Russian army away from the Polish border for more than three and a half years. The Russia indeed occupies over 20% of Ukraine’s territory and attacks with drones spots in the entire country, but the frontline has been nearly intact for a while.

Over the recent weeks, Ukrainian drones keep destroying several refineries in European part of Russia. Estimates of damages done are to be treated with a solid dose of uncertainty, but sources say even up to 40% of total refining capacity of the tsar’s empire might be temporarily for long-lastingly shut down. Even if those figures are over-optimistic and knowing that the army will be the last to run out of fuel, those tidings are a music to my ears.

If what can be heard on a grapevine, namely that Ukraine is bound (with assents from the USA) to target power and heating plants in Russia in the coming weeks, is true, it also brings on a smile on my face, knowing weather forecasts for coming months for Russia do not indicate a mild winter. I do not feely sorry for ordinary Russians, who have superb track record of enduring a lot to help their homeland “prosper”. I also doubt they will ever realise they owe their misery to a totalitarian tsar, not to a rotten West.

In the light above the above, the major positive development in 2025 is that Donald Trump failed to nail down a ceasefire nor a peace agreement. I trust the US president, who two months ago clapped his hands as he was greeting Mr Putin in Alaska, was sufficiently humiliated by his Russian counterpart to come up to his senses.

With ceasefire in place, Russia would not see its industry destroyed. Instead, Putin would get two or three years to prepare for a bigger war, a timeframe over which Europe would not catch up with its enemy. With warfare going on, Russia is getting weaker day by day, admittedly at the price of bloodshed in Ukraine, soldiers and civilians being killed every day. It has to be spoken out Ukraine is paying price for our safety and hence it is a moral obligation of the West to aid it with weapons and information from intelligence.

Mindful of the above, I hope the war does not end soon. I keep fingers crossed for warfare continuing until Russia falls on its knees and then falls flat on its face into a frozen mud in which it has been stuck for centuries and until Ukraine regains its territories occupied by the invaders since 2014. Neither ceasefire nor peace, letting Russia regain its strength, are in a vested interest of Poland.

Chwała Ukrainie! J***ć Brauna i Konfederację!

A lunatic behind the wheel

In the eve of the third anniversary of the invasion to Ukraine, my hopes Donald Trump would act reasonably are dashed. The warfare, marked with attrition on both sides, might within a few months come to an end. Sadly, the peace agreement’s shape might be far from expectations of the civilised world.

The idiocy the US president displays on every step does not cease to amaze, or rather disturb me. How dumb must a man be to say he trusts the russian dictator? How short-sighted must a man be not to predict a ceasefire will buy time to putin’s war machine to build capacity for a broader campaign against NATO? How narcistic must a man be to want to bring the war to an end at any price, just to prove his powerfulness? How brazen must a man be to claim Ukraine has sparked off that war and could have finished it and accuse it of breaching a never nailed down deal?

In his transactional politics, Ukraine has a role of an object, not as a subject, it best summarises endeavours to reach a peace agreement without the invaded country being involved. The US president and his cronies are not interested in protecting NATO or in shielding foundations of the civilised world, such as a country’s right to stand up for its independence and integrity. This guy craves for rights to dig up rare resources beneath the Ukrainian soil. At the end of the day, such approach is still lesser evil than coercing Ukraine to give away occupied areas to russia, as it involves defending territories where rare metals are deposited against the russian army.

Europe in these circumstances appears powerless and sluggish. The EU leaders have belatedly realised they have made a mistake by relying on the behind-the-ocean ally as a guarantor of stability in Europe. Most countries in our region have run out of weapons shipped to Ukraine, have not rebuild their military capacities and now stick to expressing their deep concerns about how the peace is to be restored. The new US administration, no matter how critical we might be towards its policies, does not lack decisiveness and determination to resolve this conflict. Voters around the world are somewhat sick of indecisiveness and powerlessness politicians display; in several countries we see the outcomes of such shift.

Between us – Ukraine has still way to go before it becomes a mature democracy, especially in terms of cracking down on corruption and rule of oligarchs. From the perspective of Poland it needs to get to grips with its history (Wolyn genocide during WW2) But at the moment is is above all a country fighting for its independence and territories belonging to it based on international treaties. For the last 3 years Ukraine kept the russian army away from NATO’s borders. Biden’s administration’s tactics was to wear russia down and deplete its resources sustainably, so that it emerges frail after the war ends. Trump’s policies will help Russia to grow stronger in long term.

If prominent politicians call Ukraine’s president a dictator or claim aid from the Western world was partly seized by oligarchs, they speak one voice with the tsar of russia. This tsar, or his successors, will not stick to any peace agreements in a horizon of more than 3 years. The war will be suspended to let russia rebuild its military power and launch another “special operation” without making mistakes leading to a prolonged warfare in Ukraine.

As an economist I wonder how the imminent suspension of warfare impacts the Polish economy. Along with other analysts, I remain uncertain of impact on the stock market, labour market and housing market. Much depends on migration – depending on the shape of peace agreement, Ukrainians might want to return to their homeland, but a new wave might flee the country. Also, we might sadly expect a normalisation of trade relations with Russia, which is already priced in by the rallying stock market in Warsaw (I slowly begin to dispose of stock-market investment fund units purchased in late 2022 and early 2023).

In the eve of narcissistic psychopath being sworn in

Usually when a populist gets hold of power, their rein turns out to be less scary than predicted. I put this mellowing out down to their strategy of flattering voters with hollow promises and safety valves embedded in democratic systems (unless populists cling to power for years and dismantle civilised institutions as Mr Orban and his cronies have done in Germany). Same might be the case with Donald Trump and my fear of him taking over is combined with some hopes he does screw it up worldwide all along.

In his campaign he promised to proscribe a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. Currently his advisors claim a realistic time horizon to bring the war to a halt is between 100 days and 6 months. The longer it takes, the better. Each day of warfare depletes Russia's resources and buys Europe time to prepare for a widespread aggression towards NATO. Nevertheless, Mr Trump will insist on impacting the course of the conflict as thus he will prove his might and powerfulness.

USA's leading role in NATO as a guarantor of western Europe's stability and safety is in question. Europe will be to some extent left to its own devices. Maybe Mr Trump's presidency will be a wake-up call for Europe to get its act together, as simple matters such as shifting to daylight saving time for the entire year are beyond its bureaucrats' decision-making capacity.

Mr Trump's considerations of taking over Canada or having designs on Greenland are so far the biggest red flags. Wladimir Putin, in a television appaerance just before its army invaded Ukraine, denied that Ukraine's right to exist. I believe the redneck president will confine to talking his head off and any conquest of non-US territories will be foiled by international treaties.

The crony of Mr Trump I currently fear more is Elon Musk. Much more brazen and having the grip over the fourth estate, looms as a bigger peril than the elderly redneck. Both guys are psychopathic personalities with lust for power, so I sincerely hope they fall out before long. Even if this happens, separately they will remain harmful.

The paragraph above reminds me of my recent fourth anniversary of joining Twitter, then not controlled by Mr Musk. I use it less frequently, rarely contribute, but have not deleted my account there just to have access to contents smart people still share there. Or should I vote with my legs and give it up altogether, to undermine Musk's empire of evil possibly much?

Where is the war heading?

Two events in world politics from November have passed so far unnoticed on PES. I did not bother to comment on the victory of the narcistic redneck in the US presidential election. Then came the scheduled event, to my positive surprise, echoing in the media – 19 November 2024 was the 1,000th day of the invasion to Ukraine. Those forgetful are now reminded the operation was planned to last three days and end up in installing a puppet government in Kyiv.

Nearly three years after those days Russia controls roughly 20% of the Ukraine’s territory and is slowly progressing. Faced with an imminent power handover, the democratic administration in the US have resolved to allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia with weapons delivered by them. This seemed a game changer, but in fact solidifies a stall in the conflict.

Time before the redneck and his cronies takes over is running out. He intends to freeze the warfare, plausibly by leaving territories held by occupiers within their borders. For Russia it means some areas in the Kursk region would stay under Ukraine’s control. If such scenario is the most likely, Ukraine should strive to take over an even bigger territory of Russia, as this decreases odds of Russians agreeing on warfare freezing.

Shortly commenting on the Trump’s victory – I hope once he is sworn in, he will be less unpredictable than he appeared in the campaign and he will be surrounded by wise advisors holding back his silly conceptions. Besides, Europe must act now, as if it was left to its own devices, hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

Pandemic diary - week 34

Monday, 2 November 2020

Yesterday I met my girlfriend’s mother. We had long thought whether this would have been a considerate move, yet given she goes to work every day, has no underlying illnesses and that my girlfriend visits her anyway, we gave it a go. What a whiff of normalcy.

On my facebook profile I post a controversial note in which I am trying to analyse whether street protests in Belarus and USA (Black Lives Matter marches) have contributed to a rising number of infections. Charts of new infections in both countries do not support the assertion that protesters spread the virus excessively.

 

Tuesday, 3 November 2020

I pay a first visit to a family under Szlachetna Paczka. I must say the sanitary regime is strictly abided by. Nevertheless is with a six-feet distance and with face masks worn by all meeting participants, a 90-minute sit-up in one room is a risky behaviour.

My mother has an intensifying pain in her hip, but due to unavailability of health service (and partly on account of fear of going to a doctor) she can do nothing about it. I do worry about her.

 

Wednesday, 4 November 2020

I feel slightly off-colour, with sore throat, sore muscles and slight cough. With hindsight – this lasted just one day. Maybe not a big reason to worry about myself, but I do worry I could inadvertently have infected someone vulnerable.

The prime minister announced new restriction due to come into effect on Saturday and defines a threshold of new infection which will trigger a lockdown. A step in a good direction in communication with the public, yet could have been simpler and more precise. Now we know if 7-day trailing average of new infections hits around 27,000, a “national quarantine" would be called. The prime minister fails to pin down how the next set of restriction would impact the economy and social life, but mentions restrictions in moving around. I remind you constraining constitutional rights can be done by a bill (ustawa), not by a decree (rozporządzenie) and given the scale of restrictions, to make them legal, the government should have declared a state of natural disaster (stan klęski żywiołowej) a few weeks ago.

 

Thursday, 5 November 2020

The ministry of health announced a few days ago it would deem genetic tests as a valid confirmation of coronavirus detection. This does not seem to impact statistics anyhow.

Figures on number of death in Poland in October 2020 come to the light. 47,593 people departed this world in my country over the previous months, against long-term average of around 34,000 deaths in October. This means mortality has increased by 40%, yet only one-fourth of it (or 3,122) can be directly attributed to deaths from diagnosed COVID-19. The remainder, i.e. around 12,000 lives can be put down to inadequate access of health service in recent weeks. I fear the figures for November might be even more horrific.

 

Friday, 6 November 2020

Shopping malls are besieged by customers before they close until at least 29 November 2020. Crowds inside denote people no longer give a damn about the pandemic and social discipline witnessed in March and April 2020 remains just a memory.

Around 7 p.m. the government finally publishes a decree governing restrictions in effect from tomorrow. All of a sudden, furniture shops, declared to remain open, are due to be shut down. Beware though, not all, those small enough do not have to close.

 

Saturday, 7 November 2020

Finally some heartening news. Donald Trump loses his presidential stool in the United States. His defeat is the biggest positive side effect of the pandemic.

I visit two other families under Szlachetna Paczka, but eventually none of the 3 families visited so far will deserve wise aid. I wonder why the fact do I risk my health. By the end of the year I will spill my regrets in a separate post.

Donald Trump

Makes no sense coming up with a more ambitious title to this post. The US president-elect’s name stands for the sound of the world diving helplessly into the unknown.

After Mr Trump’s victory, headlines were hit by news of polls buggering it up and senseless questions “how come?”. Against what you are still told and regardless of slip-ups of both candidates, Mrs Clinton was bound to lose that battle, resulting in yet another one in a string of shifts in power aimed at capsizing the well-established, predictable, though at times seized-up machinery of liberal democracy.

I wrote on facebook on Wednesday it was the second such bad day this year (the first one fell on 24 June 2016, when Brexit referendum results were announced). The magnitude of US presidential election binding result, impacting indirectly all countries in the world, is far larger than of the Brexit referendum, which formally has been just an indicator of Brits’ opinions (now to be handled by the parliament somehow).

Fearful of implications of Mr Trump taking office? No worries. The upside of the situation is the habitual track record of various populists going back on their promises. Mr Trump’s silly waffle was meant to win him voters – words he was whispering to disgruntled electorate were music to their ears. In his wildest declarations he pledged to bring about a change deeper than the one Mr Obama had pursued. Before he is sworn in on 20 January 2017 he will get insight into intricacies of US politics and I believe the reality check will tone him down (in terms of knowing the ropes of politics he is incompetent, but has his head screwed in well enough not to spoil it all the way).

Having written that, I still believe Mrs Clinton, though definitely imperfect, was a far better choice for the United States and for the whole civilised world.

So what prompted the nation which has held foundations of democracy so dear to elect Mr Trump? He was the first prominent politician to have rejected political correctness; thus several voters perceived him as frank and straightforward. He was not a part of (discredited in eyes of many) political elite and scorned at murky establishment, a clique of spongers living off politics and pooling wool over electorate’s eyes for decades. He has struck a chord with millions of impoverished, aggrieved voters, victims of de-industrialisation, who indeed felt America was in ruins and needed to be lifted from misery.

“CHANGE” was the buzz word or Mr Obama’s campaign and a change is what Americans have longed for. Each change involves costs and benefits one should analyse before one opts for or against it. Majority of voters have chosen a soft change, or the lesser of two evils, however since the vote is indirect and in most states Mr Trump received the most votes, he was selected to become the successor of Mr Obama.

I do respect the choice made by US citizens who have exercised their right to vote and the election result, being the aftermath of electoral college votes mechanism in place. I am holding back from forejudging the presidency of Mr Trump. Before I revisit the topic, I am waiting for the story to unfold. The first public appearances of Mr Trump fill with hope he is not a lunatic and his policies will fortunately differ from the visions he outlined during the campaign.

Poised for failure?

The question above pertains to Donald Trump’s candidacy in the oncoming US presidential election. Despite recent serious slip-ups which arguably could disqualify him straight away, he is not yet bound to lose it all.

According to a popular (don’t know to how extent it is true) belief, a president of the United States should boast of set if traits which pre-destine them to take this office. To cut the long story short, the president should be successful in all areas of life: should have a first spouse (to whom they are faithful) and children, boast about brilliant professional / academic / political career, be an exemplary citizen (e.g. not evade taxation, donate money to charities), crystal-clear in terms of honesty (no outstanding criminal charges / accusations), plus they should display impeccable manners and class.

Even if the description above is just a stereotype, it would not hurt if the bar for the president of the United States was raised that high. Bearing in mind the above, they very nomination of Donald Trump as Republican Party’s candidate has been mind-boggling. The very list of his numerous wrong-doings (BTW, an excellent summary containg what I miss in Polish journalism, i.e. citing sources substantiating each paragraph, hats down to the author):

- allegations of several attempts of sexual harassment,

- tax evasion,

- mistreating his wives, cheating on them,

- four bankruptcies of casinos he controlled,

- various cases of misconduct in running real estate business (dealing with tenants),

- mistreating his employees, including failing to pay contractors and workers, or hiring migrants illegally,

- running shady businesses, including a foundation, an university and an institute, all Trump-named,

is long enough to put a bunch of ordinary people into prisons, yet despite unprecedented slew of controversies around his name, the republicans decided he would run for presidency.

The recordings disclosed over a week ago, caused more uproar, but have not been a nail to his coffin. I would safety bet as the tapes of Mr Trump bragging about seducing married women and telling technical details on how he was making a pass on them could win some voters.

There will always be voters who would expect someone akin to them to hold such office. Mr Trump did what several males do when females are not around, proved he is a regular guy, not a spick-and-span well-mannered politician, but an ordinary chap from the neighbourhood, some who despite his richness has common ground with the underclass.

There is a theory that a statesman should adhere to higher moral standards than an ordinary citizen. The concept holds water in general, but conduct which is acceptable cannot be unambiguously defined. I am a straightforward man and never take umbrage when public figures commit the same sins as I do in their private time. I swear like a trooper (as many educated people in this Poland), even when there is no reason to use foul language. Swear words have become for me a part of communication with all people who have developed the same despicable habit, especially in the workplace (unfortunately foul language is tolerated there by everyone and hence thrives). I should be ashamed of it, yet if I broach this topic, I prefer to admit it that to pretend my civility is beyond reproach. Besides, I might not disapprove of eavesdropped politicians who swear in private conversations; by stooping so low, I have denied myself that right. The locker-room talks also do not shock me, since though I have never talked about any particular woman in such vulgar way, I am familiar with that style of language, but use it rather in self-deprecatory context (e.g. asked my a mate if I am fine, instead of straightforwardly confessing it could be better I tell him that “nobody wants to do me a blow-job”).

What might really drag down Mr Trump’s chances in the race of presidency was his declaration in the last debate he would not accept the victory of Mrs Clinton and would look into it fairness of the election procedure. By undercutting the foundations of democracy, Mr Trump moved closer to Mr Kaczynski who also implied several times elections won by PO or its nominees had been rigged.

Incidentally, Mr Kaczynski, as a bachelor, having no children, having not accumulated any property over more than 40 years of adult life, never taking private travels abroad as an adult, not having a driving license and not fending for himself over most of his adult life, also does not fit the profile of a statesman, yet for totally different reasons than Mr Trump.

The very existence of Donald Trump is not a problem, as there are many freaks roaming around our planet. His very willingness to run for presidency, if he can afford it, is not a problem as well. The issue is that for some reason he earned the nomination of the Republican Party and the biggest issue and a puzzle is why people want to vote for him. We need to bear in mind he does not tread the path of PiS in Poland and does not pamper the poorest with benefits raising their standard of living and does not resort to the most blatant economic populism for masses. The possible answers lean towards ideological reasons: Mr Trump wants to reinstate law and order, lift America from its knees, revise relationships with other countries, wants to make the United States an empire again, is a backbone of conservatism, finally some voters would sooner kiss their own arse than vote for a democrat.

Not being actually fond of Mrs Clinton, I keep fingers crossed for her victory on 8 November, thus I am keeping fingers crossed for well-being of the whole civilised world.