Showing posts with label conspiracy theories. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conspiracy theories. Show all posts

Sunday, 10 May 2026

On cycling and conspiracy theories

The sudden departure of lower-house deputy and charity activist Łukasz Litewka brought shock and grief on many, including me. Of all actors of the Polish political arena, no other had brought in more benevolence to the disadvantaged, terminally ill and animals. The tragic twist of fate have chosen him to pass away as a fatality in a traffic accident. 

A noble, young man suddenly departs, leaving a question why. Just like a Smolensk air crash, the accident looms as so improbable that it goes beyond comprehension of many.

The likelihood of being run over in a head-on collision with a car on a road in a middle of a forest is tiny, yet not equal to zero and with a large dose of bad luck, it materialised. Had he left home half a minute earlier or later, he would have escaped death. Most of us, including me, have averted a major accident more than once by dint of being a few seconds earlier or later in a deadly spot.

The theories of an alleged assassination began to sprout very shortly after his tragic death. Their authors claim Mr Litewka was inconvenient to many by speaking openly of paedophiles and zoophiles in Kłodzko or by messing with owners of crummy animal shelters. Frankly speaking, I do not buy it.

Facebook with its nefarious algorithms has suggested me a group (I deliberately leave out its name and will not link to it) whose members strive to call into question the official version of what we know about the accident or (less often) try to come up with alternative explanations. Out of pure curiosity, I tried to go through some of the postings, most of which do not hold water altogether, defy the common sense and basic laws of physics. Not to mention in this country of seasonal, yet not seasoned expert, thousands of skilled specialists in traffic accidents involving cyclists have mushroom within last two weeks. On top there are people who post provocative notes soaking with crass stupidity, while other group members fall for their twaddle. I do not commend this, a this a slap on the face of the deceased's nearest and dearest. Overall, I look at the group with disdain, but would not favour censorship here, as any attempts to close their mouths would trigger siege mentality.

The tragic accident ought to bring about a discussion on cyclists' safety. At the scene there was no cycling path, no pavement, no roadside, no separation of vulnerable traffic participants from motor vehicles. Mr Litewka did not wear a helmet, which that time would not have helped him, but in many cases helmets saved lives or prevented serious injuries.

Last Sunday I cycled 102.51 kilometres thus have beaten my record of 100.00 kilometres set on 7 June 2021. On the last day of the long weekend several people went for recreational bike rides. On the 90th kilometre of my journey, having coasted through Bulwary Wiślane chock full of people I was approaching Most Łazienkowski and nearly had a head-on collision with a fellow cyclist. I quickly skimmed on the rear brake and then on the front on and then gently swerved. The fellow speeding cyclist had far less reason and skill and ended up somersaulting over the handlebar. She had a helmet and luckily the only injuries were bruises and a swollen knee with a bleeding wound. Hearteningly, most people around stopped by to check if she needed medical aid. I waited half an hour until the culprit was picked up from the scene by her relatives.

Given the level of thoughtlessness among cyclists, an incident was just a matter of time. Unless you collide with a car, cycling gives much less room for serious injuries compared to travelling by car. Yet, sins of cyclists overlap those of motorists. Speeding, aggressive overtaking, not looking back ahead of overtaking, not signalling an intention to turn, abrupt braking, stopping for no reason and blocking infrastructure are those I see most often. There are several cases of cyclists not minding pedestrians, or less experienced cycling path users (elderly people, families with children), the plague are food delivery bandits on electric bikes doing at 40 kmph on cycling paths. 

I advocate cycling, moving around and commuting by bike and building infrastructure for muscle-propelled vehicles, but we also need education and enforcement of traffic rules on cycling paths. An aggressive bike rider would definitely do less harm than a speeding idiot behind a wheel of a motor vehicle, but cycling paths, except for where they cross roads, should be a safe place. At least I wish they were safer than they are now. I cycle a lot and if the traffic is dense and fellow cyclist not considerate, it can be stressful.

Sunday, 29 June 2025

Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Sunday, 25 July 2021

Conspiracy theories

There are a few things I can be ashamed of in my life. One of them is an episode of fascination with conspiracy I went through on the verge of adolescence and adulthood. Countless theories of other than official course of events in 9/11 terrorist attacks and climate change denialism were my focus for a while around 2007. For a grown-up, yet immature lad the uncanny explanations were compelling and fortunately, meaningless in the long run.

Then came the tenth day of April in 2010 when a Polish plane carrying 96 people tragically crashed in Smolensk. Circumstances of the accident have immediately become a fertile ground for conspiracy theories, which for years continued to mark a divide line in the Polish politics. I was three years older and much wiser, not to fall for stories of assassination, artificial fog, metal-hard birch, explosives found in the wreck and other stuff.

A year and a half ago an epidemic caused by a novel coronavirus broke out in China. The peril was shrugged off and covered up by the local authorities who acted belatedly. The virus, which could have been kept at bay, spilled all over the world and turned lives of virtually everyone upside down.

Now go back in time to July 2019 and imagine somebody telling you about lockdowns, overwhelmed health service, major increase in mortality, economy and social life running into a standstill, shut down industries, compulsory mask-wearing. You would laugh them off. The unimaginable has become a reality.

Here is what underlies each single conspiracy theory – an event so complex, so improbable, so hardly imaginable, going beyond people’s comprehension, that it calls for a simple clarification. A human mind does not like to make too much effort. It yearns for quick solutions instead of uphill and mind-bending pursuit of intricate truth.

People are sick of isolation, remote learning and working, restrictions. They hanker after normalcy. No wonder some of them, less intelligent and more gullible, fall for simple explanations, telling them the virus is a hoax, the pandemic had been planned in advance and under its guise a new order of the world is brought in. Such people have always been, yet in pre-Internet times just a handful of them were indulging in their vision of the world. With social media giving everybody a chance to share their thoughts, their visions are spread far too far and wide. They take fancy of (usually) poorly educated people who, having gotten familiar with shady articles, memes or video, claim to have knowledge superior to epidemiologists and virologists. 9/11 or Smolensk conspiracy theories referred to past events and were relatively harmless. Today, the narration of a false pandemic and bleating of the anti-vax movement can cost health and lives of millions of people. Disturbingly.

Sunday, 11 September 2011

Early fall, there's a cloud on the New York skyline

9/11 is one of few events in the history I remember well. Once, in the first anniversary of Smolensk disaster, I brought back memories of that day. Now there is no point in repeating them, there is no use in writing how that terrorist attack changed the world, dwelling on how unbelievable it was would sound like a cliche. As an economist I could address the topic by weighing up pros and cons of suspending trading on Wall Street by the end of the fateful week or going on about the impact of loose monetary policy pursued by Fed to buoy up US economy after 9/11 on formation of US housing bubble.

The economic aspects of 9/11 are apparently compelling, but before I got really interested in economics I had had a period in my life which had had its climax in Janaury 2008 (winter exam period) when I went through a silly fascination with 9/11 conspiracy theories. Over that one month not only did I underperform on my exams which cost me a lower scholarship in the subsequent semester, but I also downloaded several films (Loose change, The greatest lie ever sold, In the plane site, The secret evil of September the 11th, Zeitgeist) about 9/11 alleged conspiracies and watched them. There was a time when I deeply believed in those theories, with time I grew out of them. My sound mind tells me they are hogwash, but I do not have sufficient information and knowledge to verify all facts and allegations... Conspiracy theorists make use of the fact people are unable to substantiate their claims and this lets conspiracy theories thrive...

So when everyone else looks back on shock brought about by the events we witnessed exactly 10 years ago, or commemorates the victims of the attacks, let's look at some stuff everyone passes over today, although it is said one-third of U.S. citizens do not believe in official account of 9/11 attacks...

1. The attack was plotted by U.S government to crack down on middle-east regimes, instill fear in people and cut down on civil liberties...

2. Alternatively, the U.S. administration knew about the plans of attack but did nothing to prevent them, as it was a good pretext for neo-conservative administration to pursue their plans set out in paragraph 1...

3. There was a large number of transactions in shares of airlines and insurance companies before 9/11, with the most recognised trading in put options on shares of United Airlines executed the day before the attacks...

4. The twin towers did not collapse on their own, but were demolished with use of bombs planted inside them...

5. Moreover, WTC 7 was "pulled (down)" in the same way - the building did not collapse naturally...

6. Pentagon building was a hit by missile...

7. Something was attached to planes which hit WTC towers, alternatively those were no passenger planes...

And many, many other... (the list does not enumarate several reported UFO sightings caught on tape)

I dare to claim 9/11 was the same for the United States as Smolensk disaster for Poland. Both tragedies were very traumatic for both nations, both left a mark in political arenas. Despite many dissimilarities, such as number of fatalities and who they were for the countries, causes and circumstances or the events, they have something in common - both have not been and stand no chance to be explained in 100%. In both cases investigations following the tragedies were said to be intransparent. Whenever some obfuscation emerges, there is room for doubt, looking out for inconsistencies. Actually both 9/11 and Smolensk were so hard to believe that it is in a way natural that there are people who will keep scratching beneath the surface to find out what "the real causes" were. Ten years after 9/11 many people believe it was an inside job, and I am sure in ten years there will be people in Poland saying Tusk and Putin contrived it, the plane landed and was shuttered by a bomb, Russian agents killed those passengers who had survived the impact, the birch could not break off the left wing or the fog in Smolensk was artificial... It can't be helped...

Thursday, 15 April 2010

Conspiracy theories sprouting

EDIT, 16 April – my appeal. No matter how strongly we disagree with the decision to bury the president and his wife on Wawel let’s suspend all discussions and rows over this issue during the weekend. In the days to come we all ought to pay our respects to all departed ones who now deserve peace.

I haven’t prepared this overview on my own, it is just a summary of a compilation which appeared recently on WP.PL. Some are to a limited extent plausible, other smack of outright malarkey… Note that the points below do not refer to any confirmed facts.

1/ Russians had a hand in the tragedy – they had vested interest in getting rid of many Polish officials inconvenient for them, particularly president Kaczynski who was determined to fight for truth and his speech on Saturday could have thwarted the reconciliation policy pursued by Mr Tusk and Mr Putin.

2/ The crashed plane which had undergone an overhaul in August 2009 was deliberately wrecked by Russian secret services. Their agents allegedly tampered with the steering systems what could have impeded a safe touchdown.

3/ An explosion on board – some eye witnesses claimed they had heard a sound typical for explosion, akin to a bomb going off.

4/ Russians deliberately created a fog in Smolensk (as they could use chemistry to clear up sky over Moscow) either to prevent Mr Kaczynski’s appearance on the ceremony or to trigger a disaster.

5/ Black boxes were swapped – Russians were familiar with the technologies used in Tupolev planes so they concocted the record of the flight

6/ Warmth of Russians is just a smokescreen – their sympathy and help they offered us should distract our attention from their involvement in the scheme.

7/ The equipment on Smolensk was broken down – some say a few hours after the crash soldiers replaced some parts of air traffic control with new ones to cover up the blatant violation of safety issues.

8/ Mr Tusk was embroiled in the scheme. He plotted it in liaison with Mr Putin and Mr Komorowski. To boot all politicians had no other duties on that day and rushed to deal with the tragedy.

9/ Pilots faced pressure from president Kaczynski to land heedless of bad weather conditions (this thread was widely discussed on Poland-related English-language blogs).

10/ Katyn is a cursed place for Polish nation.

11/ The disaster was predicted by Nortradamus, who wrote about metal birds, which carried some eminent people from an invincible country and the country was soon invaded from the East.

12/ Not all victims died on the spot, some survived the crash but Russian secret services swiftly came around to kill them.

My comments to theories no. 11 and no. 12
Ad. 11/ I have “Centuries” by Nostradamus (in English) in PDF and searched for key words which appeared in the Polish version – nothing like this can be found there.

Ad. 12/ TVN 24 reported yesterday someone uploaded a film from the scene on which one can clearly hear shots. TVN 24 says however the film was uploaded on Tuesday, while the same footage was shown by Russian TV a day earlier.

Another note – Poles remain split over the funeral on Wawel. He worst thing is that I got lost, because there are several versions concerning the person behind this idea. Some try to suck up credit for the great idea, some try to shift blame to others.

Monday, 21 December 2009

Three years left?

If you believe in the Mayan prophecy of the imminent end of the world, you’ll probably nod. The 2012 fad is visible all over the world, if you tap “2012” into your google, the results are likely to be divided into three groups: Euro 2012 (the imminent organisational disaster is within the realms of possibility), London 2012 and Doomsday 2012. The one projected to occur in three years is the last we will survive, unless some new manuscripts are found.

Do I believe in this funny theory? No, though there was a time when I was fascinated with it. Is there any reason why? In my humble opinion the end of the world will strike humanity out of the blue. Too much has been spoken about, too many people know about, mostly after the film “Doomsday 2012” was released.

For no apparent reason if people live in affluence the like to devise new problems. Such is the case with year 2012. There’s no other need to worry, so let’s instigate fear of end of the world. Some, like Patrick Geryl try to capitalise on the fear. The main author of doomsday theory is now organising a group of people who will survive the disaster and restore the human kind on Earth. This for me looks like a big scam. This guy might take away the money from those people who trust him and enslave them or set up a sect or something…