Pandemic diary – weeks 36 & 37

Monday, 16 November 2020
The percentage of positive results of tests carried out yesterday reach record-high 59.3%. I bet this horrifying figure will be seen higher by the end of year.

Tuesday, 17 November 2020
Headlines that the coronavirus was present in Europe in autumn 2019 hit the newsreels again. I have no idea, whether those assertions are unfounded, but undoubtedly any hint that the virus was with us, life went on and the health service carried on without collapse is a water to the mill of conspiracy theorists.

Wednesday, 18 November 2020
I observe three reasons why people with mild symptoms of COVID-19 do not seek GP advice.
Firstly, signing up for a remote visit by phone is a daydream, first available slot are usually after 7 – 10 days, i.e. when patients already recover.
Secondly, quarantine and isolation rules are absurd, especially the latter being imposed when a person is on the mend. Besides, rules regarding obligatory sick leave for those working from home remain unclear.
Thirdly, people are afraid of losing a portion of their income for a period of extended absence at work, their or their household members’.
Little has been done to bring some order into that lousy chaos.

Thursday, 19 November 2020
I am growing sick of how Szlachetna Paczka is run in the times of the pandemic. Time for comprehensive washing dirty linen in public comes when it is over. If I was to name one organisation which has been prepared for the second wave of the pandemic worse than the Polish government, Stowarzyszenie Wiosna deserves that title. Several times a month I talk to executives of big companies who have taken precautions and established enforceable sanitary regime in their companies. Szlachetna Paczka does have some makeshift procedures, yet most people inside the organisation do not give a damn even about them. This time I blame the people, not the system.

Friday, 20 November 2020
The number of deaths from the coronavirus in Poland exceeds 600 for a third day in a row. Some experts claim they have reached a peak, others warn the terrific figure might hit 800 or 900. To make the picture full, at this time of year in previous years the average number of all death run between 1,050 and 1,100. On top you need to add increased number of death related to inadequate access to health service. This give you mortality soaring by 100% of more.

Saturday, 21 November 2020
The prime minister Morawiecki for the first time admits to mistakes his government has made and unveils a long-term plan of loosening restriction and announces the draft decrees will be consulted with entrepreneurs and other interested parties. I appreciate the effort to bring in the element of predictability and quantitative criteria to the crisis management. On the other hand, I cannot hold back from nit-picking:
- the number of new cases, though a good indicator is of limited cognitive value with scant testing,
- the decision to cumulate winter holidays over a fortnight period in the first half of January is mind-boggling and with no ban on tourism will contribute to spreading the virus. Given that the winter holidays period ensues immediately after the Christmas / New Year’s Day tide, I see here a plan of nation-wide crackdown on the virus within that period,
- potential restrictions in travelling for Christmas period should be pinned down immediately and clear criteria under which the would be imposed should be announced around now.

Sunday, 22 November 2020
The media are hit by a journalist coverage how a temporary hospital on the national stadium in Warsaw works. I am an ardent fan of Paweł Reszka – review of his book can be found on my blog (Czarni, Chciwość, Daleko od Wawelu) and put trust in his credibility and objectivity.

Monday, 23 November 2020
The topic of the day is the ban on gatherings above 5 persons during the Christmas period. The key questions raised by critics and by me is doubtful enforceability of such restrictions.

Tuesday, 24 November 2020
I worry about my mother, who has been struggling a pain in her hip for a few weeks now and refuses to have a proper doctor consultancy until the wave of new infections decline. I understand her fear, but believe setting off with therapy is the lesser of two evils on those days. I do not want my mother to be an indirect victim of COVID-19. I do not want her health to irreversibly worsen on account of the pandemic.

Wednesday, 25 November 2020
Poland is overtaken by Hungary in the nefarious ranking of EU countries which have performed the fewest tests per 1 million citizens. Since today my homeland ranks second on that list, but chances it takes the lead are miniscule, since Bulgaria with its even more inept handling of the pandemic stands little chance of catching up.

Thursday, 26 November 2020
Several European countries have commenced preparing infrastructure and logistics to widespread vaccinations. In Poland prime minister Morawiecki announced a few days ago he had commanded to begin preparations, but there are no palpable signs of those preparations materialising, unlike in Germany, Great Britain or Portugal. Hopefully Poland does not handle it as well as vaccinations against flu. Has anybody lucked upon them before we ran out of them?

Friday, 27 November 2020
Doctors say the lower number of infections in recent days is caused by fewer people reporting to their GPs with mild symptoms of COVID-19 and underline such stance puts their lives at risk if their health suddenly worsens. The infected fear isolation, quarantine for their household members, fear being stigmatised by neighbours and want to shun loss of income.

Saturday, 28 November 2020
The first day when restrictions are loosened and the next loosening ensues to earlier than on 28 December. Shopping mall are reopened after a three-week period of shutdown. Droves of people are reported to besiege shops there, which implies consumerism holds stronger than fear of the virus.

Southern Bypass of Warsaw - mid-November 2020 update

It had been nearly half a year since my last trip to inspect the progress of Warsaw’s bypass construction east of ul. Puławska, but west of Vistula. Back in late May, I could venture there on bike without covering my face. On previous Saturday I had to put on a thin face mask, to protect myself from a PLN 500 fine, rather than from people I passed by swiftly in the open air.

The weather was quite fine then, with around +9C on thermometer. I had dug up thermal vest and long johns purchased in 2018 before the winter tripbeyond the polar circle, donned a tracksuit, gloves and a chimney and set off. Sadly, after photographing documents on preceding days, I forgot to switch the macro off in my camera, hence pardon the acuity of the first shots. To the right, work at full blast at the intersection of ul. Rosoła and ul. Płaskowickiej being rebuilt. The roads straight ahead will take drivers towards and from Ursynów Wschód junction.

Having descended down ul. Orszady and through Wilanów I reached Przyczółkowa junction which was nearly ready. The construction site was sadly fenced off with workers onsite and security guards looking out for trespassers. I did not venture to see the road nearly or fully completed.

From the afore-mentioned junction I cycled east along the southern road of S2, through a partly finished, partly unmade cycling path. As one can see, barriers, lamp posts and signage were all in place, lanes had been marked out. Note the curve in the distance which seems badly profiled, just as the one on Konotopa junction which takes the traffic from S2 to S8.

I cycled an oval around fields of rural Wilanów to get onto a viaduct which carries ul. Syta above S2. A view westwards, the expressway seems to await administrative procedures necessary before opening. Note the concrete slabs from which it is made, more durable than asphalt.

To the right – looking towards the Vistula from the same viaduct. In the distance plenty of construction machinery on the bridge taking the bypass over the river. On Saturday afternoon the work was in overdrive.

On my was back, I made a stopover on a muddy meadow which should be an extension of ul. Branickiego, linking it to slip roads from and into Ursynów Wschód junction. Nothing had been and the spot (missing 150 metres of road) has been dubbed the section of disgrace.

To reach the goal of cycling 25 kilometres, I rode around Ursynów instead of heading straight for home. On my way, I spotted speed bumps on ul. Roentgena, put in recently. Speeding drivers (I confess I used to drove there at 70 kmph in times when I took that street to reach P&R Stokłosy) now need to slow down to 30 kmph, yet judging by comments on local forums, locals seem disgruntled with the solution.

The last snap, taken, while being caught out by the rain. The extension of ul. Indiry Gandhi, running to Ursynów Zachód junction, which would remain useless until the U-turn at the end of current S2 is converted into a regular extension.

I wonder whether the section of S2 between Przyczółkowa junction and Lubelska junction (where it joins existing A2 motorway) is opened this year. Administrative procedures last around a month, but if completed before the end of December, a trip there by car would be one of those few signs that things are moving on despite the pandemic; hopefully towards normalcy.

Pandemic diary - week 35

Monday, 9 November 2020

Percentage of positive outcomes in coronavirus tests reported today reached… 49.96%. No other country wastes so few tests.

Pfizer announces it has developed a vaccine against COVID-19 and boasts of 90% effectiveness and no side effects. The first reaction euphoria which later evolves into wariness.

 

Tuesday, 10 November 2020

Number of new daily infections in Poland resists to reach the critical value of 70 per 100,000 citizens, which means for a while Poland averts a full-blown lockdown (although the decision whether to introduce it is political).

By the way, can anyone explain to me how to legally enforce a prohibition from leaving home or moving about without a valid reason?

 

Wednesday, 11 November 2020

The independence day celebrations are muted, except for a march staged by Warsaw by far-right nationalists and attended by hooligans and fascists. The gathering is spontaneous, just like street protests against ban on abortion in late October, yet mask-wearing discipline is lower.

The number of reported deaths from the coronavirus worldwide for the first time exceeds 10,000.

 

Thursday, 12 November 2020

The minister of health can boast about new hospital beds and ventilators, but he forgets to mention the health service focuses these days solely on COVID-19 and is defunct in other areas. Currently you can only pray you stay healthy and do not need hospital aid, which you should net expect to get. This will sadly translate into record-high number of deaths in October.

Since today, after being overtaken by Croatia, Poland ranks third in the EU in terms of the lowest cumulative number of tests per 1,000,000 citizens (over 142,000 in Poland until today).

 

Friday, 13 November 2020

Is the curve of new infections flattening or have we just reduced testing? The number of hospital beds occupied and the number of patients requiring ventilation are a better indicator of health service strain.

At work I observe more and more workmates being in depressing mood, not fulfilling their duties, missing deadlines, botching stuff up, more bouts of irritation. The isolation which with varying intensity has lasted eight months has left marks on mental health of people.

 

Saturday, 14 November 2020

The decreasing number of new infections in Warsaw and around is a positive piece of news. The drive-through test centre are resported not to be clogged up The decline is oddly enough observed two weeks after a street gathering of 100,000 protesters.

The number of daily deaths in Poland exceeds 500 for the first time. This does not surprise, since a peak in deaths is reported around a fortnight after a peak in new infections. Around this time of year around 1,000 - 1,150 deaths occur in Poland every day. COVID-19 thus raises mortality by 50%, but actually it is definitely higher due to inadeaquate access for health service. You can go on and on about it, sadly.

Pandemic diary - week 34

Monday, 2 November 2020

Yesterday I met my girlfriend’s mother. We had long thought whether this would have been a considerate move, yet given she goes to work every day, has no underlying illnesses and that my girlfriend visits her anyway, we gave it a go. What a whiff of normalcy.

On my facebook profile I post a controversial note in which I am trying to analyse whether street protests in Belarus and USA (Black Lives Matter marches) have contributed to a rising number of infections. Charts of new infections in both countries do not support the assertion that protesters spread the virus excessively.

 

Tuesday, 3 November 2020

I pay a first visit to a family under Szlachetna Paczka. I must say the sanitary regime is strictly abided by. Nevertheless is with a six-feet distance and with face masks worn by all meeting participants, a 90-minute sit-up in one room is a risky behaviour.

My mother has an intensifying pain in her hip, but due to unavailability of health service (and partly on account of fear of going to a doctor) she can do nothing about it. I do worry about her.

 

Wednesday, 4 November 2020

I feel slightly off-colour, with sore throat, sore muscles and slight cough. With hindsight – this lasted just one day. Maybe not a big reason to worry about myself, but I do worry I could inadvertently have infected someone vulnerable.

The prime minister announced new restriction due to come into effect on Saturday and defines a threshold of new infection which will trigger a lockdown. A step in a good direction in communication with the public, yet could have been simpler and more precise. Now we know if 7-day trailing average of new infections hits around 27,000, a “national quarantine" would be called. The prime minister fails to pin down how the next set of restriction would impact the economy and social life, but mentions restrictions in moving around. I remind you constraining constitutional rights can be done by a bill (ustawa), not by a decree (rozporządzenie) and given the scale of restrictions, to make them legal, the government should have declared a state of natural disaster (stan klęski żywiołowej) a few weeks ago.

 

Thursday, 5 November 2020

The ministry of health announced a few days ago it would deem genetic tests as a valid confirmation of coronavirus detection. This does not seem to impact statistics anyhow.

Figures on number of death in Poland in October 2020 come to the light. 47,593 people departed this world in my country over the previous months, against long-term average of around 34,000 deaths in October. This means mortality has increased by 40%, yet only one-fourth of it (or 3,122) can be directly attributed to deaths from diagnosed COVID-19. The remainder, i.e. around 12,000 lives can be put down to inadequate access of health service in recent weeks. I fear the figures for November might be even more horrific.

 

Friday, 6 November 2020

Shopping malls are besieged by customers before they close until at least 29 November 2020. Crowds inside denote people no longer give a damn about the pandemic and social discipline witnessed in March and April 2020 remains just a memory.

Around 7 p.m. the government finally publishes a decree governing restrictions in effect from tomorrow. All of a sudden, furniture shops, declared to remain open, are due to be shut down. Beware though, not all, those small enough do not have to close.

 

Saturday, 7 November 2020

Finally some heartening news. Donald Trump loses his presidential stool in the United States. His defeat is the biggest positive side effect of the pandemic.

I visit two other families under Szlachetna Paczka, but eventually none of the 3 families visited so far will deserve wise aid. I wonder why the fact do I risk my health. By the end of the year I will spill my regrets in a separate post.

Pandemic diary – week 33

Monday, 26 October 2020

I hear of more and more confirmed cases or person who have most symptoms, but could not be tested.

I attend an anti-government demonstration in Ursynów which in fact is a COVID party. Yet defending the country against Jarosław Kaczyński ranks higher in my priorities than my health. My concern is not to infect the vulnerable.

 

Tuesday, 27 October 2020

The media speak of conceivable stark lockdown commencing on Saturday if dynamics of new infections does not decelerate.

We cross the number of 15,000 new infections (and 16,000). I believe by the end of the week it reaches 20,000 daily. The epidemic has spiralled out of control and the only way to bring it to the heel would be an absolute lockdown, similar to what has been done in Wuhan, China. But we cannot afford it.

 

Wednesday, 28 October 2020

Judging by number of COVID-related deaths, mortality in Poland might now be some 20% higher than in previous years at this time of year. The figures does not take into deaths caused by other diseases due to unavailability of medical aid. We need to wait until the stats office releases official data on number of deceases in October.

The number of new cases confirmed worldwide for the first time hits 500,000.

 

Thursday, 29 October 2020

In Poland we statistics cross two dejecting thresholds: 20,000 new injections and 300 deaths on one day. And the second wave has not reached its peak.

No lockdown is envisaged in Poland while several European countries impose it to crack down on the rising number of infections.

 

Friday, 30 October 2020

Protests against actual abortion ban have been staged in Poland for a week. Today the biggest demonstration takes place in Warsaw, with approximately 100,000 participants marching to stand up against the government. I am one of them. As the gathering is in the open air and mask-wearing discipline is exemplary, my fear of infection is somewhat suffused.

I am bringing to your attention situation in Belarus, where mass demonstrations in proper sanitary regime have been held for nearly 3 months and somehow the country has not experienced a surge in new infections. Belarus with 9,000,000 residents does between 20,000 and 25,000 tests per day, which accounts for around 50% more tests per 1,000,000 citizens daily. What a shame to Poland.

 

Saturday, 31 October 2020

Inadequate testing blurs the actual scale of the pandemic. It is said around 50,000 persons can be infected daily in Poland, which maximum number of tests performed has not exceeded 65,000 daily.

Cemeteries are closed today, tomorrow and on Monday. The decision is announced, as always, at the last moment.