Pandemic diary – weeks 88 & 89

Monday, 15 November 2021
The first full week of November should bring normalisation of statistics, distorted by two long weekends and consequent scant testing.

Tuesday, 16 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 15,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 30 October, 18 days earlier), but is 36% lower than on 16 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 3 days. I predict the 20,000 hurdle will be crossed on 24 November.

Wednesday, 17 November 2021
What a wipe-out! Nearly 25,000 new infections and more than 15,000 hospital beds occupied. The Czech prime minister announced a lockdown for the unvaccinated. The Polish government does not want to mess with anti-vaxxers.

Thursday, 18 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 200. With such statistics of new infections and 53% of population vaccinated, I believe the number hits 500 in December.

Friday, 19 November 2021
Austria imposes a lockdown for everyone, including the vaccine, for 10 days starting on 22 November and mandatory vaccinations starting from February 2022. They’ve got balls.

Saturday, 20 November 2021
My girlfriend’s unvaccinated mother is down in bed with some sort of infection. She refuses to go to a doctor nor to get tested…

Sunday, 21 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 20,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 4 November, 17 days earlier), but is 7% lower than on 21 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time, as the number was hit 3 days earlier than foreseen. I predict the 25,000 hurdle will not be crossed during this wave.

Monday, 22 November 2021
In Romania and Latvia where the delta wave has taken a heavy toll, people rushed to get vaccinated. In Poland the health service begins to get overwhelmed, daily number of deaths is three-digit, though 4 times lower than in early April 2021, but local morons do not seem well convinced they should get their jabs. There has been some increase in first doses (up by more than 50% since trough), but crowds have not rushed to get immunised.

Tuesday, 23 November 2021
Had an antibody test done, more than 5 months after the second dose. My antibody count is 163 BAU/ml, vs. cut-off of 33.8 BAU/ml. Of course there is the humoral response, but definitely I can’t feel comfortable with such immunity. I will need to sign up for the booster in late December or early January.

Wednesday, 24 November 2021
A day of sad records broken:
- 1 in 415 citizens in Czech Republic was tested positive yesterday,
- Warsaw sees record-high number of new infections, i.e. 2,449,
- more than 570,000 people are under quarantine in Poland, the highest number since the onset of the pandemic.

Thursday, 25 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 300. Most of those deaths could have been avoided. The pace of the pandemic slows down and the inflection point is not far ahead. I bet it is on 2 December.

Friday, 26 November 2021
Just when I thought the record would not be broken, in Czech Republic 1 in 387 citizens was tested positive. This happens in a country where 58.7% of population have been fully vaccinated and 19.4% had been tested positive since the pandemic began. Herd immunity is out of reach.

Saturday, 27 November 2021
The R(t), i.e. reproduction number in Lubelskie and Podlaskie provinces has declined sustainably below 1.0, which means the epidemic is past the peak in new infections. Even without restrictions, this is a natural course of the epidemic driven by patterns of social interactions.

Natolin, November, walk

A lot is going on around. The pandemic is covered by my bi-weekly diary. I could go on about inflation and record-weak Polish currency. I could write a dissertation on a dismal situation on the Polish-Belarusian border. I could come up with a nasty longer comment on the launch of TVP World, a decent competition to Russia Today. I could, but I won’t. I care about what is going on around, but my mind needs to get some rest from what is upsetting me.

So for the record, a photo coverage of my morning walk taken yesterday. 8:30 a.m., end of the second decade of November, sunshine, gusty wind and +10C. Spring in the air, while the winter is coming.

The Park im. Cichociem-nych is due to be revitalised in near future. For no apparent reason, restoration works involve chopping down several trees, a part of the project which many locals oppose. I see no idea why this coppice is to give way to a cycling path, which may run past the trees.

The first work done has been digging up the ground for the cycling path. The progress of works has come to a halt. Since early November nothing more has been done. The desolated area is fenced off and probably waits for the advent of winter.

The base of POW construction site is being wound down. Astaldi workers have taken away the car park and I hope they bring the area back to how it had looked out before machinery came in. I hope the concrete will give way to greenery. In the distance, a tunnel supervision centre and fume let-out chimneys. I wonder if the last section of S2 is opened before Christmas.

The Oczko wodne Moczydło 2 next to Las Kabacki, a hangout for ducks, in the summer a swimming pool for local dogs. Looking at the photo one would find it hard to guess whether it was taken in late November or in late March.

The sun-lit track which connects the underground line to the rest of the world. For more than 2 years I have not spotted a single railcar on it. Looking forward to the news of new underground trains being trundled here to the nearby depot, probably next year.

A rural view of Ursynów. The forest behind, a mown meadow with molehills ahead of me. Tall blocks of the district far in the distance. I am half a mile from home in an entirely rural area. I am glad to have found the place I belong!

For the end of the stroll, at look at ul. Moczydłowska, ultimately freed from motorists parking their vehicles on both sides. After several inspections and wheel blockers put on by the straż miejska, sods have finally learnt that road belongs to pedestrians, cyclists and runners.

Pandemic diary – weeks 86 & 87

Monday, 1 November 2021
This year cemeteries have not been closed. I ventured to visit the graves of my relatives yesterday and the day before yesterday, on both days before noon. Cemeteries were anything, but crowded. One could enjoy the spell of late autumnal warmth (day-time highs above +15C).

Tuesday, 2 November 2021
The number of new infections declines on a week-on-week basis. Not a reason to be cheerful, since we can put it down to the bank holiday yesterday.

Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Will Poland follow the path of Britain, where the level of new inflections is high, but fairly stable, without distinct waves? Some experts claim it is conceivable.

Thursday, 4 November 2021
Statistics of new infections catch up after the long weekend, hence over 15,000 cases are reported. But the more terrifying figure is the number of new deaths.
In Slovenia 1 in 460 citizens is tested positive, thus the country breaks the record set in Belgium on 30 October 2020 (1 in 487 citizens tested positive).

Friday, 5 November 2021
The number of fully vaccinated Poles exceeds 20,000,000 (which is less than 53% of population, less those who have died since getting their jab).

Saturday, 6 November 2021
250 million officially reported cases worldwide. I would safely bet the actual number is above 1 billion.
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 10,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 23 October, 14 days earlier), but is 52% lower than on 6 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 2 days. I predict the 15,000 hurdle will be crossed on 13 November.

Sunday, 7 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 100, which translates into CFR of …, given a customary delay of 14 days between new infections and new deaths. This implies around … of cases are not detected.

Monday, 8 November 2021
10,000 hospital beds occupied. Still far from the peak of around 34,000 occupied in April 2021.

Tuesday, 9 November 2021
The number of new infections in Germany is now higher than during the previous waves. The country has relatively low, given the standards of the Western Europe, vaccination rate, with inhabitants of the eastern land (former GDR) being more reluctant to get the jab.

Wednesday, 10 November 2021
Among 11 best-vaccinated communes (gminy) I see:
5) Warsaw, where I and most of my friends live,
6) Poznań and
7) Wrocław where several of my workmates live,
9) Konstancin-Jeziorna where my father hails from and some of my family members live,
10) Piaseczno, where I grew up,
11) Lesznowola, where my parents live where I resided for nearly 13 years.

Thursday, 11 November 2021
In 2020 the second wave reached its peak (as measured by the 7-day average of new infections). This year the wave is still ascending, yet I predict it might reach a peak in late November and then slowly descend.

Friday, 12 November 2021
The Austrian government a lockdown only for the unvaccinated (except for those recovered). Austria joins the group of countries taking harsh measures to crack down on those unwilling to get the jab. The Polish government has no intention of irritating its mostly brainless electorate.

Saturday, 13 November 2021
The best summary for the way the government handles to fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland: “Poles are left to their own devices”. Fortunately, FFP2 masks are widely available, whoever wants will find a vaccination centre round the corner.

Stagflation

Some time ago I believed the term coined in 1970s would become the thing of the past, explored by students of economics and occupying few pages in their textbooks. The stagflation in 1970s arose from a negative supply shock and was successfully combated by tight monetary policy and drawing back on economic liberalism. The price to pay was a rise in unemployment and downfall of inefficient, uncompetitive industries.

Rings a bell? In 1970s real negative interest rates were prevalent in developed economies, as they are today. In 1970s a surge in oil prices contributed to the stagflation; today disrupted supply chains and shortages of several components might produce a similar outcome.

The two comparisons might misguidedly suggest the today’s situation is parallel to what was witnessed over 40 years ago, while it is not.

The COVID-19 pandemic, especially in its early phases, prompted unprecedented government stimulus programmes. As several sectors of economies were brought to a halt to curb the spread of the virus, the governments had to feed mouths of those who were forbidden to work. If the link between the output and the money is broken, it means the supply of money on the market is not counterbalanced by goods or services produced and so prices inevitably rise. This has happened with a delay of a few quarters.

Frail economies of several countries were propped up by ultra-loose monetary policies, giving relief to debtors and inducing those holding cash to spend it. I suppose there are other precisely targeted measures to help out those devoid of stream of revenues. If you earn no money it does not matter much whether the interest rate on your debt is 3% or 0%.

Although the pandemic has been brought under some control in several countries, supply chains continue to be disrupted. Lack of semi-conductors, disruptive for several industries, brings supply of several goods down, which, holding everything else unchanged, pushes their prices up.

Also the climate change and efforts to slow the AGW down begin to have impact on prices of energy and fossil fuels. The time has come to pay the bill for exploitation of the planet. Prices of several goods will need to incorporate the harm done to the planet by the consumers.

As a banker I have industry insights which are out od reach for an ordinary man. I closely see how soaring prices of some raw materials send profitability of some companies up and others down. On some markets where prices increased by a few hundred percent over the recent year, buyers said they’d had enough and would rather cease to manufacture rather than produce with a loss if they are unable to pass the rising cost of raw materials to off-takers. Such phenomena are a clear signal stagflation might be in the offing.

The inflation will always have its beneficiaries, but most economic actors lose on it. Usually those better off are debtors and worse off are their creditors. On top, the poorest suffer the most. Prices of dwelling upkeep and basic food have risen by more than 6% over the recent year, hitting the wallets of the underprivileged.

I am grateful for my wisdom and intuition thanks to which I invested my savings in inflation-linked government bonds which in 2022 will pay me coupons up to 8%, with risk and liquidity profile far superior to a residential property which is considered the main alternative to bank deposits in Poland