Pandemic diary – weeks 101 & 102

Monday, 14 February 2022
Omicron now accounts for more than 90% of sequences. To make stats less boring, time to come up with the distinction between BA.1 (current prevalent) and BA.2 (less than 5% of sequences these days) – more infectious and probably more deadly subvariant which already prevails in Denmark.

Tuesday, 15 February 2022
After the post-contact quarantine was lifted and less than a week before pupils return to classrooms, headmaster still do not know how to handle groups where one pupil or a teacher has been tested positive. Until recently, in such cases remote learning was compulsory. As of now, the regulations are unclear. In early March schools might become a hotbed of the virus again, as the wave has not burnt out naturally and the level of immunisation is not particularly high.

Wednesday, 16 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections decreases below 30,000, after staying above such level for 22 days.

Thursday, 17 February 2022
75% of Warsaw’s residents fully vaccinated. The figure looks well, but with respect to curbing transmission, is useless. With respect to preventing severe course of the illness and death, vaccines still prove good, decreasing those risk by around 8 to 9 times in all age groups.

Friday, 18 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections decreases below 25,000, after staying above such level for 27 days. The fifth wave declines as quickly as it inclined.
The 7-day average number of deaths peaks out at 251 in Poland; 4 fewer and exactly on the day predicted by MOCOS in the first week of February.

Saturday, 19 February 2022

In early February Denmark lifted all restrictions and opened up. Critics of that decision point at the record-high number of deaths in COVID-19 reports (higher than in January 2021, when the number of infections was 10 times lower, but prior to vaccine roll-out). But once you drill down the data, the surge is driven by deceases where COVID-19 was not the primary cause, but infection accompanied another disease. Looking at the chart below, I believe reporting should be amended and only if COVID-19 was the primary cause of the death, such death ought to be reported.

Sunday, 20 February 2022
Queen Elisabeth (aged 95) tested positive for COVID-19. The British queen has been triple-vaccinated (date of booster jab unknown) and is reported to have only mild symptoms. Hope she continues to feel well.

Monday, 21 February 2022
It seems that school closure on 27 January brought forward the peak in infection by one week. Nevertheless, if this wave does not burn out as it should naturally, I expect a rebound, or levelling off in early March, a few days after today’s school reopening.

Tuesday, 22 February 2022
In Iceland, more than 10% of population are active cases. Neither in Slovenia, nor in Denmark more than 10% were not isolated when inflections peak. Iceland is a quaint and only example of a country where infections have kept rising for the recent two months. The well-vaccinated nation sees however, a single-digit number of critical cases (2 out of around 35,000 in total) and reports on average less than 1 death daily.

Wednesday, 23 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections decreases below 20,000, after staying above since 20 January. It kept ascending for 13 days, but descended for 21 days.
The Polish prime minister announces all restrictions, except for isolation, quarantine for flatmates and mask-wearing indoors obligation will be lifted as of 1 March.

Thursday, 24 February 2022
Ukraine reports 25,789 new coronavirus cases and 276 new deaths. This is the last COVID-19 report from the country.

Friday, 25 February 2022
Worth looking at South Africa, the first country which experienced a surge of infections caused by omicron. New cases (7-day average) peaked there on 17 December 2021 at 23,437, but unlike in previous waves when deaths peaked out some two weeks after infections, this time deaths kept rising until 19 February 2022 when 7-day average of new deaths reached 233. Any explanation for that?

Saturday, 26 February 2022
R(t) in Poland bottoms out at 0.67. School opening will do its bit soon.

Too Good To Go – application review

I am not really fond of installing and using applications in my smartphone. As I count, I use more or less frequently around a dozen of them, 40% of an average for a typical smartphone user in Poland. But from time to time out of curiosity I install a new one, usually prompted by a recommendation from another person.

The application mentioned in the post title was praised by one of my workmates during a business trip in September. Soon after hearing of it, I forgot about its existence and, truth be told, do not recall what refreshed my memory and made me try it out.

The idea behind the app is simple and commendable – it is meant to reduce food waste in shops and eateries. Produces saved from landing in a rubbish bin are sold for one-third of their regular price. Stuff from shops are near their expiry dates while restaurant food is not super-fresh and perfectly-looking to meet standards of an eatery, but surely edible.

If using the application was to be environment-friendly and cost-effective, if I lack a travelcard, I set the circle of 3 kilometres from home (i.e. a walking distance) to find places which wanted to get rid of some food. Each day I would find packages to be grabbed from Auchan Ursynów (PLN 8.49 – PLN 9.99), nearby BP stations (PLN 11.49), local Vegesushi restaurant (PLN 14.69), Costa Cofees (PLN 14.99). Some would wait hours for a buyer, other, such as packages from Blikle confectioneries (PLN 9.99) would be snatched within minutes or second.

The drawback of the application is that you reserve (and right away pay for) a pig in a poke. Some leftovers are guaranteed, but it is unpredictable what is left at the end of the day.

My first adventure was the regular food package from Auchan for PLN 9.99 on 10 February. I picked up a bag of food easily, but cannot say I was satisfied with its content. Inside I found a decent premium dry sausage (expiry date in 4 days), a cottage cheese (expiry date on the next day) and processed herring (expiry date on the same day) and this was the part which I ate. The remaining part of it (list on the receipt to the right) – too much of a whipped cream, yoghurt and other fat dairy products and a fat-made smoked beckon (all with expiry date on the pick-up day) sadly ended in the rubbish bin.

Admittedly, I have not saved the food properly, moreover I did not save money neither. What I consumed was worth PLN 10.29 at market prices, yet I while doing shopping would probably not buy all these products – fish I buy tinned or unprocessed to cook myself, cottage cheese would I buy, but less far, instead of a big premium sausage, I buy small packages of sliced meats. And look at the receipt from the application – the VAT receipt from Auchan contains 0% VAT for food, while the receipt from Too Good To Go included 23% VAT. Puzzling.

The second adventure was ordering a popular package from a nearby Blikle confectionery for PLN 9.99. I orderly picked it up on Friday (18 February) evening, brought it home, opened up and found a meringue cake. Again, it did not take my fancy, meringue is too sweet for me. Fortunately, I found a workmate who is fond of such sweets, bought a public transport 75-minute ticket for PLN 4.40 and took an underground train and a tram to drop it off to her place instead of committing it to the rubbish bin. All in all – PLN 14.39 spent, utility negative.

After the second experience, I do not feel like having a third attempt. The food is bought up anyway and does not go to waste. For somebody who, like me, plans shopping and strives not to waste food, the application is useless utility-wise and money-wise, but surely there might be people, especially large households, who might find the 67% discount attractive, provided they are luckier in terms of what the pig in a poke turns out to be.

I will not discourage you from using the app. It simply does not suit my needs, but someone else might find it a perfect tool for cutting their food shopping budget or saving the planet.

Pandemic diary – weeks 99 & 100

Monday, 31 January 2022
The customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Tuesday, 1 February 2022
Poland is the only country in the EU to have reported less than 1,000,000 test carried out per 1one million citizens since the beginning of the pandemic. Romania, the runner-up in the nefarious ranking has made 1,001,131 test per one million citizens, while Poland only 808,195. In comparison, Denmark has tested an average citizen more than 20 times.

Wednesday, 2 February 2022
The fifth wave reaches in Poland its surprisingly low peak at 49,078 (7-day average of new infections).
In Slovenia 1 in 89 citizens tested positive. Over 35% of the country’s population (2.08 million) have been officially infected since the onset of the pandemic.

Thursday, 3 February 2022
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Poland crosses 5,000,000. The last million was reached within 43 days, 8 days later than I had predicted on 22 December 2021. Even if the optimistic scenario materialises and the wave begins to decline, I bet the decline will be slow and 6,000,000 will be hit on 5 March 2022 (i.e. within 30 days).

Friday, 4 February 2022
Newspapers inform about 250,000 Poles who have been given a referral to get tested, have not shown up at testing centres. Reasons might be manifold:
1) too long queues to testing centres,
2) they feel to bad to get to a centre,
3) the fact that seven-day quarantine is shorter than ten-day isolation (in fact ten days plus the time of waiting for test result and to get tested).
The system might have clogged up, as the reported capacity is 192,000 tests per day and actual number of tests conducted is near 180,000.

Saturday, 5 February 2022
Looking at the positivity rate in Poland we it has ranged from 26% to 34% since 20 January. The steady percentage of positive test results does not confirm the hypothesis that the testing system has reached the limits of its capacity. Although in fact it has.

Sunday, 6 February 2022
European countries that definitely have gone past the peak (date of the peak in 7-day average of new infections in brackets) of omicron wave are:
- the United Kingdom (5 January),
- Ireland (12 January),
- Italy (14 January),
- Spain (17 January),
- France (25 January),
- Sweden (27 January),
- Belgium (28 January),
- Portugal (29 January).

Monday, 7 February 2022
The Polish Ministry of Health brings in reporting of reinfections. A positive change triggers chaos in reporting and prompts questions whether until now reinfections had been properly reported. With hindsight it turns out they were.

Tuesday, 8 February 2022
Number of officially detected cases worldwide hits 400,000,000, 4 days earlier than I foresaw on 5 January 2022 (when it crossed 300,000,000 mark). I predict half a billion will be exceeded on 22 March 2022.
R(t), the reproduction number declines in Poland below 1.00x. The peak in reported new infections was reached one week before most mathematical models had predicted.

Wednesday, 9 February 2022
The Polish Minister of Health announces the pandemic draws to a close (on a day when nearly 47,000 new infections and over 300 deaths are reported). To accommodate to such scenario, the government:
- lifts quarantine of people who have contacted an infected person,
- shortens quarantine for flatmates of an infected person (takes effect on 11 February),
- shortens isolation from 10 to 7 days (takes effect on 15 February),
- brings forward the end of remote learning by one week – children are to return to schools on 21 February.
But the jaw-dropping announcement is scrapping the obligation to wear mask indoors once new infections decline. For me the very latter is a step too far. Are they going to call the election? Last time the virus was retreating before the election.

Thursday, 10 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections decreases below 40,000, after staying above such level for 14 days.

Friday, 11 February 2022
With some delay I find an updated pandemic forecast by MOCOS. Those quants a month ago predicted nearly 150,000 reported infections daily and 700 deaths daily after the wave peaked. The new forecast says:
- 7-day average of new infections will decline below 10,000 on 1 March 2022,
- 7-day average of new deaths will peak at 255 on 18 February 2022.

Saturday, 12 February 2022
Bulgaria is the first country in the UE in which 0.50% of the population officially died from COVID-19. Disregarding the virus, reluctance towards vaccines and poor health service have contributed to the dismal statistics.

Nadchodzi Trzecia Wojna Światowa – book review

Struggling to recall how I have learnt about the book, but beyond all doubt I immediately ordered it in the district library of Ursynów. To my surprise, the wait was not particularly long after a mere few weeks I was notified I could borrow it.

Th recently (autumn 2021) published volume is a transcript of extended conversations between Jacek Bartosiak (expert in international politics with focus on military issues) and Piotr Zychowicz (historian). The two men hold unbiased discussions in which they keep to themselves their private political views (the latter is a right-wing ardent anti-communist) and brush aside their prejudices. The outcome is a detailed, substantive analysis of superpowers in the contemporary world and how the spheres of influences might reshape in the coming decade.

The book rests on a paradigm that the era of post-history in which carnages of the First and the Second World Wars are not going to repeat, in which only local military conflicts are conceivable, but the highly developed countries enjoy peace, is drawing to a close. The authors claim something is about to give in less than a decade. They cite China’s ambitions to take over the dominant role from the United States as a major motive and dissect several other aspects as minor reasons potentially leading to a clash that could spill worldwide.

The script has prompted me to revise my views on armament spending, which for years I had considered mostly useless. My notion would have held true had there been no enemy to Poland, which most likely is a naïve claim. Modern, well-equipped and professionally-trained army with continuously updated contingency plans is like an insurance policy. A country pays the insurance premium to scare off enemies.

The authors are critical in their assessment of how Poland has handled its military policy over the last 30 years and cannot point at any government over that period that stood out positively. The unconstrained trust in the alliance with the United States, thoughtless armament spending just to stick to NATO’s requirements or for the sake of showing of earmarking a certain percentage of GDP for the military purposes, excessive purchases of aircrafts and other equipment from the United States to flatter the America – all that is slated by the experts.

Mr Bartosiak and Mr Zychowicz also take a look at the history of Poland around WW2, its subjugation to allies who turned their back on my country. The bitterly admit Poland should have focused more on its vested interests, rather than relying on allies and acting like a saviour of the world, sending its soldiers to shed blood for other nations. Drawing on those experiences, they insist Poland should curtail its dependence and reliance on NATO and be as self-supporting as it can, while staying united with Western Europe and strengthening this alliance wisely.

My read of the book coincided with Russia’s preparations to invade the Ukraine. I have pinned some hopes in good job of intelligences of several countries which foiled Mr Putin’s plans. Maybe it was naïve to think an action which everybody expects to happen is less likely, but the war should be about taking the enemy by surprise. Some experts claimed the invasion was unlikely during the Olympic Games, traditionally the time when warfare was on hold. They give an example of 2014 when the Crimea invasion occurred after the end of the event in Sochi. I suppose Mr Putin no longer gives a damn. Weather might play a bigger role. The north-eastern swathes of Ukraine are swampy and frozen ground would make it easier for heavy vehicles to move, so the time might be running out. On the other hand, some pundits say the positive temperature anomaly of 10 Celsius degrees might be conducive to Russians. Regardless of which version is right, it is disturbingly certain turbulent times are ahead.