On prices rising

Michael has beaten it to me, with a splendid account of what Poles have to face up to these days. The imminent price growth has been a par for the course since pre-pandemic times. Recent outburst of public outrage over prime minister Morawiecki’s purchase of inflation-indexed government bonds has left me unimpressed. I bought such securities for the first time in July 2019; my grasp of economics told me to protect against recklessly loose fiscal and monetary policies. Time has proven me right, while the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have amplified the effects of local policy errors.

Looking back at the autumn 2021, when I visited underprivileged families as a volunteer of Szlachetna Paczka, I remember well people complaining about rising costs of living, especially more expensive food, electricity and heating. I worried this could send millions of people into poverty if prices of essential goods keep rising like that. I also can boast of predicting the threat of stagflation which was in the offing even without warfare on the horizon.

The factors which to some extent will continue to drive prices up are: the pandemic (not really likely to ease off for good), the fight against climate changes (which prompts consumers to change their habits) and the sanctions against Russia. The very latter will sadly hit more those who rightly aim to punish Russia for its cruelty, than the Russians, who for centuries have been accustomed to depravity.

The struggle which looms ahead of Poles now is multi-faceted.

Food prices will not go down due to droughts, shortages of fertilizers and higher energy prices. Climate change and negative supply shocks related to the war in Ukraine will push millions into famine, while residents of the developed countries will need to spend larger parts of their household budgets for nutrition.

Dwelling upkeep costs will not go down as well. They will be kept high by the push for the greener energy and decreased supply of fossil fuels from Russia. This will be painful for several poorer Poles, who will need to save on virtually everything to keep their houses warm during the coming winter. I believe we will all need to give up on some thermal comfort in months ahead and withstand temperatures of +18C in our interiors. Appallingly, some European countries, such as Germany and Austria are about to switch on their once shut down coal-burnt power plants, committing a sin of not restarting their nuclear power plants whose environmental impact is incomparably lower than of burning coal.

Fuel prices have gone up by some 50% vs. February 2022 and they might decline a but, yet given the cost of transport is included in nearly every price, even without direct exposure to petrol stations’ price lists, everyone will be worse off. So far, judging by traffic volumes, few people have given up on motoring in favour of public transport, cycling or walking – does not bode well for the economy, for the climate and for the public health.

What is being first hit by the inflation is demand for discretionary, non-essential goods. But if are to gain control over the surging prices, we must stop chasing such goods, resist the temptation to flee money. The circulation of money has to be contained, hence lending ought to be curbed and saving should be encouraged.

I have no good news for you. The best times for our civilisation are already past us. We have to brace ourselves for austerity unseen since decades. Many of us will need to watch every zloty before spending it. Our consumer habits will need to be rethought. Wisdom and sustainability will have to take over. Sharing will have to become an alternative to buying.

Besides, I am glad personally I am not impacted badly by the inflation. I put aside less money monthly, but do not have to abandon any expenses for purely financial reasons (I drive even less, but not because I cannot afford to fill up my car). My savings are shielded reasonably well from the inflation. Each day I am thankful for the sense of financial security. I hope this gratitude fends off the evil, albeit the outbreak of war east of Poland, being a tragedy to millions of innocent people, reminds nothing can be taken for granted.

Autistic burnout

Several times I wrote on the blog about the episodes of depression I went through in my adult life and from which I have apparently recovered. I first made up my mind to share how it felt in August 2017, during the third episode in my lifetime. Last year the “dark sister” turned up again and I dedicated her one post (oddly enough around the same time of the year). At that time I was ahead of being officially diagnosed with Asperger Syndrome.

In each episode I was experiencing some symptoms which overlap a regular depression, but was not affected by others – low self-esteem, decreased drive / energy levels, avoidance of social events – they fortunately did not distress me. I put it down to my willpower and years of working on myself and how much I am worth as a human.

I carried on taking anti-depression pills, decreasing the dosage in line with my psychiatrist’s guidance from December 2021 to April 2022, when I gave up on medicines altogether. Although for my body parting company with neurotransmitter regulators was a harrowing experience, mind-wise everything was in order, until early May 2022, when I began to fall apart day by day. I was knocked down by a combination of factors which could have led to a relapse of depression, but instead of making an appointment with a doctor or returning to my “happiness pills” I decided to scratch beneath the surface. Was I only down in the dumps since the moment in life was anything but easy or was it an illness?

Back from last year I knew Asperger Syndrome and depression tend to coincide, or rather people with AS being misfits are more prone to get depressed. I began searching online whether depression of a person in a mild autism spectrum differs from depression experienced by a neurotypical person. Then the penny dropped.

I have come across a few articles which excellently described what I felt several times in life when I was overwhelmed. Autistic burnout or Asperger burnout, a recently discovered phenomenon (knowledge and awareness of it became prevalent in the English-speaking world in 2020 and 2021, although first articles trace back to 2017 or even 2016) is what has made some periods in my life an ascent uphill since early adulthood. Those were repeatable patterns – after a period of living like a neurotypical person, I got exposure to a load of stressors which bore down on my brain and led to a burnout – a blend of fatigue, exhaustion, nervousness, inability to take up major challenges. Some burnouts were severe enough to resemble depression episodes, some were milder, their durations varied, all receded, although some with help of anti-depression pills (and I cannot tell what would have been had I not supported the recovery with medicines). I consulted a psychiatrist who focuses on adults with AS, she confirmed my suppositions and advised to get in touch with a specialised therapist and abandon medicines which are most probably unnecessary if I can carry on functioning quite normally. Despite apparently getting on well with myself and fulfilling all social roles properly, I am determined to take up therapy. It will ease my pain of being alive, something I have felt for years, admitted to myself, but hid it from nearly everyone around.

In 2021 I somewhat shrugged off the Asperger diagnosis, claiming the official label changes nothing. In 2022 I realised to get on with being in the spectrum I need to raise my self-awareness. I already recognise my strengths and know how to make use of them. Now comes the time to comprehend my limitations, learn to embrace them and not to overreach myself trying to overcome them, as such attempts benefit nobody.

I hope by the end of the year, I will happier and… wiser and feeling more comfortable with my imperfection.

A farewell to combustion engines

It happened. On Wednesday the European Parliament passed a resolution as a result of which brand-new cars with combustion engines would not be registered in the European Union since 2035. Traditional blachosmrody will give way to electric or hydrogen-fuelled engines.

The quest for limiting carbon dioxide emission, cleaner air and environment protection is inevitable and commendable, but is switching to electric cars the right direction? Does the future of motoring many have relished on, make sense?

The basic idea behind going electric is the lack of CO2 emission at a vehicle’s exhaust pipe. But have the proponents considered the total lifetime carbon footprint of electric cars and their traditional predecessors, given:
a) bigger environmental impact of battery manufacturing,
b) even worse impact of battery recycling,
c) imperfectly short usable lives (both in terms of years and mileage) of batteries?

The automotive industry will be forced to make a technological stride until 2035 which will:
- decrease costs of producing electric vehicles,
- increase their ranges and
- shorten charging times,
but 13 years appears to be a little time.

If we are to make use of electric cars conveniently, the coming decade is to be spent on building charging infrastructure, including adjusting installations in buildings with car garages. Unless kWh consumption per kilometre is decreased by that time, energy generation capacity and electricity grids would require significant upgrades. Countries which have invested in renewable energy generation will become beneficiaries of “going electric”, while those lagging behind, like Poland, might sadly end up… burning fossil fuels to produce electricity, under which scenario the carbon footprint would… increase.

In assessing whether electric car is environment-friendly, you must find out where the electricity for it comes from. If from a coal-burnt power plant, think twice…

I hope by 2035 fast charging which would not shorten battery life would become prevalent so that car users no longer complain about charging times which last hours, which is particularly inconvenient during long-distance journeys.

Laws of physics are hard to be circumvented. You ought to remember an electric car is around 300 kilograms heavier (batteries are much heavier than a traditional engine, whose weight is not small anyway), which means more energy is necessary to set it in motion.

Looking at the above, you should sense my scepticism towards electric vehicles. If so, you are right, but I consistently claim engineers ought to focus on hydrogen and politicians should have the courage to tell people they will need to abandon their unhealthy driving habits.

Given the peril of the climate catastrophe, car ownership should become a luxury and a vehicle should be considered as a liability, rather than an asset. Its usage habits ought to be changed. Firstly – short-distance journeys around town, where a car can be easily substituted by going on foot, cycling or public transport should be eradicated. Secondly, car ownership should be taxed, while the tax rates should depend on a car’s weight (yes, the bigger your car, the more you should pay) its fuel efficiency or life-cycle carbon footprint (don’t turn a blind eye on environmental impact of battery production and predominantly recycling) and household status – second and next cars in the same household should be up to higher tax rates.

Our approach to motoring will require a change in mentality which is slowly under way, with many younger people no longer treating a vehicle as a status symbol, with many deeming it to be a costly burden. The change will, however, not take place overnight and many will remain unconvinced.

I fear the recent radical move of the EU will become a water to the mill of far-right anti-EU parties which will gain some support from defiant car-ridden individuals. I realise the climate change clock is ticking, but if we also know each revolution eats its own children, would it not be wise to consider a green evolution, rather a green revolution? An evolution would consist in a march towards a zero-emission world, probably too slow given the rising temperatures. But a painful revolution, accompanied by social anger could involve taking steps back to combat the unrest and reaching the ultimate goal not as quickly as planned.

Pandemic diary – May 2022

Monday, 2 May 2022
60% of Poland’s population vaccinated with at least 1 dose. With respect to participation in the vaccination programme, Poland ranks sixth from the bottom in the EU after:
1. Bulgaria (30.2%),
2. Romania (42.5%),
3. Slovakia (51.7%),
4. Croatia (57.3%),
5. Slovenia (58.7%).

Saturday, 7 May 2022
The total number of infections in Poland reaches 6,000,000. Given the scant testing, 7,000,000 is out of reach, officially.

Wednesday, 11 May 2022
In a weekly report the ministry of health informs the number of patients in hospitals treated from COVID-19 has fallen below 1,000.

Thursday, 12 May 2022
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland declines below 500, it last officially stood so low in mid-September 2021.

Saturday, 14 May 2022
The 7-day average number of new deaths in Poland decreases to 10. This gives some comfort. On top, excess deaths also suggest the situation is under control. In July 2021 the figure bottomed out at 2.

Monday, 16 May 2022
Stan epidemii is lifted in Poland, but actually is downplayed into stan zagrożenia epidemicznego which is a purely legislative change. I wonder how long before the next wave hits and how badly it is going to affect the healthcare system.

Tuesday, 17 May 2022
In the United States the 7-day average number of new cases hits 100,000, after bottoming out below 30,000 in late March. Try to convince me the virus is seasonal and there is no reason to worry while it’s warm.

Friday, 20 May 2022
Exactly one week ago COVID-19 officially reach the communist North Korea. Within that time, 2.24 million citizens of the country (population of 26 million) were diagnosed with symptomatic COVID-19-like disease (the country lacks access to testing). Examples of Taiwan and North Korea show no matter how stringent precautions are taken, no country can resist the virus.

Wednesday, 25 May 2022
While the world is slowly forgetting about COVID-19, rising number of monkeypox cases becomes a concern in several countries. Several questions remain partly unanswered, including the crucial ones, about transmission mechanism and protection offered by existing vaccines.

Monday, 30 May 2022
First non-bank-holiday-related week-on-week increase in new cases is just an outlier, but the change in the trend is in the offing, my intuition tells me.