Gone is
probably one of the hottest summers in the history of Poland. Gone are the
tiresome heatwaves. Gone is the thermal discomfort we have endured for weeks.
I am fond
of statistics, in particular of weather statistics, hence I have taken the
troubled to quantify August 2015 which was the warmest August in the history of
temperature measurements in Warsaw - average temperature reached +23.0C,
beating August 1992 when it stood at +21.5C and was the second warmest month in
the history of Warsaw since 1880, after memorable July 2006, when mean
temperature was +23.5C.
The chart
below displays quite well the temperature anomalies witnessed last month in
Warsaw. Over virtually the entire month average temperature was above mean
temperature for specific days, with considerable deviations at the end of the
first decade of the month and in its very last days.
The month
had a misleadingly cool commencement. On 1 August I was setting off to the
mountains on 4 a.m. and outside it was quite chilly, somewhere behind Nadarzyn
car thermometer showed +5C. I thought I could do with winter tyres as well…On
the same day temperature shot up and two days later exceeded +30C.
The heat
wave according to the phenomenon’s pure definition lasted 11 days, since each
day from 3 August 2015 to 13 August 2015 maximum temperature recorded was above
+30C, and was the longest heat wave observed in Warsaw ever (oddly enough the
average number of days in a year when temperature is above +30 is mere five).
Had the definition been adjusted down by one Celsius degrees, the heat wave
would have lasted incessantly for 15 days, until 17 August.
The heat
wave reached its climax on Saturday, 8 August 2015, when temperature rose to
+36.6C, 0.4C short of heat record set exactly two years earlier. The day was
followed by record-hot night, when temperature did not drop below +22C even
before dawn. The average temperature over 24-hour interval stood at +29.2, far
warmer than in Athens, Rome or in Madrid on an average day in July.
Days
between 19 August 2015 and 26 August 2015 brought blissful relief from heat,
with day-time highs in mid +20Cs and lows below +15C. Had it not been for that
colder period, August 2015 would have gone down as the hottest month ever.
Last days
of August 2015 and 1 September 2015 brought another influx of unusual heat,
with temperatures in Warsaw reaching +34.7C and +34.5C on respectively 31
August 2015 and 1 September 2015, with the latter breaking the previous heat
record for September set on 7 September 2008 (+30.7C).
On top of
this deficiency of precipitation also made itself felt – rain fell twice in
August 2015 – on 16 August and on 25 August with the two showers being a drop
in the ocean that should lash down from heavens to bring back hydrological balance in Poland.
Abnormally
high temperatures have given nearly everyone a rough ride. As experts point
out, it is not the intensity, but length of the heat wave that determines its
tiresomeness for people. Hence three days with temperatures peaking at +37C are
more bearable than two weeks of heat reaching only +32C each day.
Despite
weather conditions hazardous for health, number of reported diseases caused by
heat was not appallingly high, especially if cases of drowning in rivers and
lakes are counted out.
Whoever
could, took shelter from the heat in air-conditioned interiors. With increasing
number of offices, other public buildings and flats having air-con put in and
turned on, electricity consumption soared, reaching levels last observed in
record-cold first decade of February 2012 (when temperatures at night dropped
well below –20C). In the meantime, power-generating blocks in power plants
could not be cooled properly (due to shortage of water and its too high
temperature) and this resulted in planned blackouts. Several industrial
off-takers faced restrictions on consumption of electricity, something that was
just a matter of time and what happened for the first time since the ultimate
downfall of planned economy in 1990.
Drought
also closed the gates to the forests for tourists, on account of extraordinary
peril of fire. And last, but no least, many trees began to shed their yellow
leaves far earlier than usual. Despite the heat, it felt like autumn.
Yesterday, when I cycled via Las Kabacki, paths were covered with a blanket of
leaves, something which ought to be observed in late September.
The problem
with the heat in Poland is that an average Pole has no chance to shield it. In
winters, when temperatures reach –25C you simply stay at home, keep warm
(unless your housing conditions are dire) and only the thought of the bottom
line on your heating bill wipes the smile off your face. In summer, an average
Pole needs to withstand temperature of +30C inside their dwelling. While in shopping
malls and modern offices and in cars air-conditioning is nearly always in place
(what an incentive to stay overtime), residential housing still lacks it on
larger scale, but given the direction of climate changes, air-conditioning will
not be just a luxury, but a must, allowing one to survive the summer
comfortably. These musts, while once they grow prevalent, will boost energy
consumption again… Summer electricity bills might soon become the price to pay
for lower heating bills in milder winters…
And what is
about to ensue thereafter? Today temperature fails to creep above +17C, it is
astonishingly chilly if we bear in mind just five days ago it was +34.5C.
Weather patterns do not tend to recur, therefore record-hot August might to
followed by: very warm autumn or a very cold autumn, or a typical autumn, or by
any combination of the three. Long-term numerical forecasts foresee an
anomalously mild winter, while some signs wildlife and plants send to us
indicate a harsh winter ahead.
My own
tolerance for heat somewhat decreased this year. In 2012, 2013 and 2014 I
actually did not mind it when temperature was above +30C. I remember well
walking around the office around midday on 8 August 2013. Temperature was +36C,
I was wearing suit trousers and long-sleeve shirt with pulled up sleeves and
felt no specific desire to rush to the air-conditioned office. This year even
in the temperature of +30C I could sit idle, have nearly nothing on and soak
with sweat. There were several night when I could not sleep a wink because of
the heat. Drained of energy, I began to feel sympathy with Greeks whose
laziness is to some extent grounded in the climate they fail to endure.
In the
meantime my holiday plans have gone down the drain :(. The travel companions, while
I made the reservation and reached out for money to make a confirmatory
payment, dropped off, while our destination, Hungary, was invaded by scores of
ruffians (pardon the expression) and actually we would be in a quandary,
wondering how the situation would unfold. While it is politically correct to
take pity on refugees and sympathise with humans who had to flee their
war-inflicted homelands, I argue it is advisable to ask ourselves whether not
only we can afford to play host to refugees (the answer is clear), but whether
those people would assimilate into our civilisation. As a nation, Poles would
respect their culture, religion (unless they are lunatic Muslims attempting to
wage a war against the rotten West), etc., but in return they would need to adjust
to customs of the country which offers them asylum. Frankly speaking, I do not
embrace a prospect of thousands of unemployed mouths to feed inhabiting refugee
camps or irate hooligans vandalising public infrastructure or robbing trucks
with food (as they allegedly did in Hungary), exhibiting their anger with the
fact Europe fails to greet hordes of immigrants with open arms.
This may be
unpopular, but the influx of migrant to Europe, stemmed or not, is the price to
pay for attempting to spread democracy in areas of world where dictatorship
would simply prove better. Democracy is by far the best political system,
provided a society has reaches the proper level of development. Guys from the
United States who excel at breaking out wars thousands of miles from their
borders should also realise it.
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