PiS politicians, despite having won the election, have few reasons to be
complacent.
They had poured billions of zlotys into Poles’ pockets – the nation has refused
to be bought off with their own money to the extent they had expected…
They had harnessed the horrid propaganda machinery (TVPiS) against the
opposition…
Campaigns run by the opposition had been mediocre, unlike theirs.
And despite all those tailwinds they have received the same number of
seats in the lower house of the parliament and lost control over the upper house
– hats down to the opposition for the Senate treaty without which this would
not have been possible.
Admittedly, the very outcome is owed to lunatic-right Konfederacja, which
having scored more than 1.2 million votes, is no longer is a marginal grouping.
If we add up votes gotten by KO, Lewica and PSL and compare them to votes cast
for PiS and Konfederacja together, the latter total is some 300,000 higher.
These numbers do not bode well.
The election was a referendum – whether you embrace of reject the way
PiS wants to run Poland. Mobilisation was witnessed in both tribes, which is not
entirely reassuring. I have written several times Poland was divided as never before. Now the turnout is higher, but the rift is only deeper.
After losing control over the upper house of the parliament, PiS began
to falter and was hit by a series of missteps (to my delight).
Media report of attempts to buy off Senate deputies in order to win
majority there, laying bare end justifies the means method of handling
political affairs.
Mr Banaś, kept away in the run-up to the election, refused to stand down
from his position of Supreme Audit Office chairman, albeit even politicians of
PiS admit given evidence of his criminal deeds, he was supposed to be file a
resignation.
The battle for sex education yet another time casts light on backwardness
of the party and if the government decides to pursue harsher punishments (up to
five years of imprisonment) for educating teenagers on human sexuality, strong
social backlash is in the offing.
Jarosław Gowin and Zbigniew Ziobro, formally leaders of two other parties
which have formed a coalition with PiS and whose candidates have won twice as
much seats in the parliament than four years ago, hold out for more influence
on the government line-up and conspire to oust Mr Morawiecki from the prime
minister’s seat.
I sincerely hope PiS is already filled with as much hubris as comes
before the fall. In the coming months they might stumble and fall more frequently,
yet it will not wean their electorate off them so quickly. Majority of people
who support PiS, except the party’s
hardcore electorate, cannot see further than the end of their noses, so the
loss of pecuniary allowances will prompt them to verify their affinity with
PiS. We will have to endure four years of PiS in power, yet their advances to
spoil Poland will (hopefully) be thwarted by the upper house.
With the oncoming
economic misery (not just the GDP growth deceleration but inevitable inflation
driven by enterprises inability to absorb cost pressures) PiS should stay in
power to face the music, not the opposition, if the Poland is to benefit in the
long term from being freed up from the detrimental rule of PiS.
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