The second wave – why it will be deadlier.

Looking at the streets, we are nearly back in pre-lockdown world. Outdoors we are allowed to uncover faces (masks are obligatory indoors and if you cannot keep a two-metre distance) and most people take that opportunity with relief. Traffic is already denser, yet home office and closed schools prevent bigger traffic jams. Number of passengers in public transport is visibly higher than two months ago, yet sadly several people switched from buses and trams to private cars, not a commendable trend. Keeping proper distance in shops is a daydream; sanitizer dispensers are frequently empty, disposable gloves are out of stock.

In a week wedding and gatherings up to 150 people will be permitted, in churches there will be no restrictions in number of people attending masses. Virus clusters account for majority of infections, yet I do not put faith in epidemic being under control, as a mine or a factory is not a closed circuit. Workers infect their families, they infect their co-workers and friends and so the disease spreads.

The big loosening does not coincide with the number of new infections which remains high, far higher per 1 million inhabitants than in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Switzerland and other countries which, unlike Poland, have succeeded in combating the epidemic.

Where is the logic behind the loosening? The economy would not withstand lockdown for a longer period for obvious reasons, but is it the only difference? The health service is now better prepared in terms of capacity to cure the infected who need to be hospitalised. Such approach admits we have to live with the virus and come to terms with its presence and the price to pay will be a few hundred people killed every month by it.

On top, people are tired of lockdown and hanker after a normal life. With less than 0.1% of population being officially infected with the virus, hardly anybody knows anyone harmed by it, therefore the threat looms distant. We do not witness a warfare. A bomb dropped by an aircraft has not blown off neighbour’s house, an armed soldier has not arrested your cousin, your workmate’s car has not been crashed by a tank. The enemy is invisible and the probability of coming burnt and bruised out of its assault is miniscule, therefore people do not give a damn.

Disobedience of restrictions and lockdown fatigue are not just a specialty of Poland. Sights of humans taking to the streets of Italian or Spanish cities bears out being locked up at homes for several weeks is contrary to our nature. We, humans cherish being outdoors and being in touch with other people. The more we yearn for it, the more we are likely to ignore perils. Fear might steer us for a while only.

For many folks measures taken to protect against the virus have been excessive, therefore if the number of infection rises, they will still be reluctant to abide by stricter lockdown rules. I believe the second wave is just a matter of time. The timing is uncertain, yet I would not link it to seasonal patterns. The rising number of infections in southern United States (currently the biggest number of new cases is recorded in California), in Latin America (in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo day-time temperatures peak above +25C or in Arab countries denies the theory that warmer weather hinders the spread of the virus. In the autumn and winter it might just coincide with the flu season, making it harder to distinguish which disease causes symptoms and putting health service capacity at strain.

Zabawa w chowanego - film review

The recently released film by Sekielski brothers is a continuation of “Tylko nie mów nikomu” which a year ago provoked a fierce discussion on the problem of paedophilia among clergy. The second film, though similarly heart-wrenching, does not smash as badly as the first one, which has brought the problem to wider audience.

Having watching “Zabawa w chowanego” (literally "Playing hide and seek") I feel anything but taken aback. Confessions by victims of harassment confirm such childhood trauma leaves a scar for the entire lifetime. The main emotion the film has left me with is gratitude that my psyche has not been broken by such distress. Gratitude for lack of miseries inflicted by the fate upon us is what we forget about. Instead, we should profoundly and consciously foster it.

The biggest sin of the Church, regardless of the country is covering up cases of paedophilia. The Polish pope has had a substantial contribution to it. Frequent incidences of sweeping the muck under the carpet bring out an impression that sinful priests (or simply criminals) are outlaws, since only on account of their profession they get away with punishment.

The film also strikes with insolence of perpetrators, who deny their responsibility for harm inflicted for their (already adult) victims.

Quite interesting is the mechanism of sexual violence towards children, which is common for all culprits, not just priests. It rests on ease with which an unmindful victim gives in. A child is the easiest person to manipulate (compare it to harassing an adult), which actually adds to cruelty of the deeds.

On Wednesday TVPiS has broadcasted a counter-document on the same problem among celebrities. The film was slashed on account of poor evidence material presented therein, yet since I have not watched it, I refrain from commenting on it. I recall last year TVPiS attempted to detract from the problem of paedophilia among priests, quoting statistics the number of paedophiles was higher with locksmiths or bricklayers. Their dim-witted audience might have not noticed bricklayers or locksmiths rarely deal with children. While priests, teachers, sport coaches and therapists do, therefore peril of the problem varies depending on a profession.

Pandemic diary – week 9

Monday, 11 May 2020

Coal mines in Górny Śląsk have become a hotbed of coronavirus. Had it not been for increased transmission of the virus in conducive conditions, the epidemic would have been on the wane. Nevertheless, miners infect their families, their families infect people they meet and since no travel restrictions are in place, the virus might spread around Poland.

I believe once offices open, some will become local clusters of the virus (especially since face masks are not obligatory unless when dealing with a customer).

Tuesday, 12 May 2020

Temperature plunges from +25C to +1C within 18 hours. In many parts of Poland morning greets with snow. In Warsaw it snows but the white powder melts instantly.

In the evening I venture to local libraries to pick up books ordered online. Life slowly returns to normalcy. The last place I long for is the swimming pool, but I believe months will elapse before I can go there.

Wednesday, 13 May 2020

The government announces next steps in easing the lockdown. Given the costs of adjusting operations to new sanitary regime and lower number of customers to be served, prices of several services are bound to go up. This is observed with dentists and will be observed with hairdressers and restaurants.

Experts I talk to say even with the second wave of epidemic, strict lockdown will not be announced. Governments already know how to handle the enemy. Thanks to prevalent testing, tracking citizens, improved health service capacity and social distancing measures, the economies are to function without excessive disruptions.

Thursday, 14 May 2020

I get conflicting information regarding comeback to the office. One version says part-time office working will be resumed in late June, another states the home office will be in place for as long as possible. I want to socialise again!

Number of active cases in Poland hits 10,000 after rising for a few consecutive days. In several countries in Europe it has fallen by more than 80% from peak. Sadly, Poland has not brought the pandemic under control.

Friday, 15 May 2020

The event of the day is a replacement of Koalicja Obywatelska’s presidential race nominee. I will vote for Mr Trzaskowski, but I am distasted by several facts:

- they called for deferral of election, once they have effectively won it, they opportunistically made use of it,

- they said traditional or main-in election would be dangerous, now collecting 100,000 signatures would be safe – this in turn has coincided with the waning fear of epidemic in the society.

Saturday, 16 May 2020

In many countries, including Europe, the epidemic is retreating, in other the number of new infections remains high (see Russia, Brazil, Mexico or Arab countries).

I believe the second wave is inevitable, not necessarily in the autumn, since development of the epidemic does not show significant correlation with weather conditions, but when people put faith it is over and forget about preventive behaviours.

Sunday, 17 May 2020

Yesterday I went to Decathlon, then to a Vistula-side beach, today again to the forest to cycle. In the shop mask-wearing obligation is fulfilled selectively, keeping a distance of six feet becomes just a memory. Shop staff do not give a damn about safety rules, nor wear masks properly. In open air (where to be fair the risk of catching the virus is much smaller than in buildings) the sight of a man wearing a mask properly is less and less frequent.

As the next restrictions are lifted and life is getting back to normal, I am signing off the diary for a while. I believe the local peak of number of active cases has just been passed by. Since I am pretty confident the peril will hit again, even more severely, as it was with the Spanish flu, expect this diary to be resumed in some time.