Szlachetna Paczka 2021 , past the final weekend.

As some of the readers might remember, my experience with Szlachetna Paczka last year was rather bitter and shortly after the 2020 edition was over, I was intent on giving up on it (as a volunteer).

In mid-2021, as the virus eased and the vaccination programme was giving hope to put the pandemic closer to an end, I reconsidered my decision. In July, when I learnt a fellow volunteer had been appointed the leader of Ursynów area, I have made up my mind to join.

This year we started out early and closed our ranks in early September to look out for families which could become beneficiaries of programme. Thanks to concerted efforts we have managed to visit 74 families (vs. around 30 in 2020) and decided to organise aid for 46 of them (vs. 14 in 2020); thus we achieved a decent hit ratio of 62%.

I personally visited 15 families, 9 of them were brought in, for 4 I was a primary volunteer, which meant I had to do all the paperwork for them and co-ordinate contact with donators.

Back in July I was appointed to be in charge of logistics. This meant I had to find a centre of operations (magazyn) for the final weekend. I have fixed us up with the space in a newly opened Ursynowskie Centrum Kultury “Alternatywy”. The location and the very facilities have turned out to be a perfect venue. I have also drawn up a plan for collection and distribution of gift packages. Picking up 46 packages from donators and transporting them to 46 families seemed a big challenge, but thanks to an excellent planning (I will not spare myself praise this time) and execution (hats down to fellow volunteers), it all worked like a dream.

Human-wise, delivering packages to families, seeing their emotions and hoping the aid would kick-start them and open a door towards a better tomorrow brought off a lot of joy.

Although delivery of packages is over, the edition has not come to an end. I shall visit my families in coming weeks to see how they are faring and help them overcome some of barrier that hold them back.

Although we definitely pulled it off in 2021, there are lessons to be learnt before the 2022 edition in which I will definitely get involved. Firstly, we will start even earlier. Secondly, donators will need to instructed how to pack the gifts (nobody feels like lugging huge boxes whose weights reached 30 kilograms) and their preferences regarding pick-up timing will need to be agreed earlier. Thirdly, volunteers ought to handle transport of furniture and heavy white goods well ahead of the final weekend, so that those gifts do not go through the centre of operations.

A collision

2 November 2021
Early morning. After spending much of the long weekend at my girlfriend’s mother’s I have decided to wake up at 5:30 a.m. and return home before the morning rush hour. Streets are nearly empty, so the drive is smooth. Less than a kilometre from home I am on the right lane of ul. Belgradzka, driving exactly at the speed limit of 50 kmph. A red Toyota Yaris on the left lane trundles slowly, probably is about to do an illegal U-turn. My prediction of a fellow driver’s intention is wrong. She swerves right unexpectedly, trying to turn right from the left lane into a roadside car park and hits the left side of my Megane. My car is turned around and pushed into the lanes running in the opposite direction. Fortunately, no car is there, so a serious smash-up is averted.
After cooling down for a moment I fire up the engine and cautiously pull up into the car park. I get out. The damage to the vehicle is not as bad as I thought. The culprit of the accident right away admits her fault. Without undue unrest we set off to a nearby meat shop where she was supposed to have a training, to fill in the accident form I used to keep in the glove compartment for years. Suddenly it comes in useful.
Half an hour later I return home. I am still a bit of nervous, but first things first. I go to Lidl to do the shopping, eat breakfast, get down to work to handle the most urgent stuff. As business is taken care of, I learn what my rights in this situation are and how to ensure the car is repaired properly.
Early in the afternoon I report the accident to the culprit’s insurer (Uniqa).

4 November 2021
After two days of not being contacted by any representative of Uniqa, I call them. It turns out my accident report went astray and had to be recovered from the abyss of similar reports manually.
An hour later I pick up the phone and they already offer me a repair of my vehicle at Alfa Romeo’s garage. I refuse to have my car repaired by a different garage than a Renault authorised dealership. Then they offer me cash. I also turn down that proposal.
After two hours of studying my rights carefully I call Uniqa again and disconnect after exercising my right to have my car repaired by professionals and with original spare parts. The damages will be paid directly to the garage.

5 November 2021
I turn up at Renault Warszawa Puławska to have the sighting of the car. I sign documents which entitle the garage to claim the costs of the repair from the insurer. Since my car is theoretically roadworthy (but practically it ought to be driven cautiously, since the left-rear rim is dented and nobody knows whether undercarriage geometry is correct) I am not eligible for a substitute car. I hence have to borrow a company car if I am to move around safely.
Advised by a friend, I calculate the car’s value at Uniqa’s page, just in case they claim the cost of repair is above the car’s market value.

9 November 2021
The valuation of the repair is drawn up. It would cost approximately 15,000 PLN to restore the car to its pre-accident shape. Fortunately, this is well below the car’s market value, which is around 24,000 PLN.

11 November 2021
I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, hence I download a guide on supreme court ruling which states the rights of drivers whose cars were damaged in accidents by other drivers. Just in case I brace for a nasty dispute with Uniqa.

15 November 2021
A car rental company contracts me. They want to fix me up with Kia Sportage, a SUV. I detest SUVs, besides, that car consumes 40% more petrol than my Megane. I kindly ask them go give me a compact car, if they lack one, a small city car.

16 November 2021
After two weeks of waiting I drive my car off to Renault Warszawa Puławska, then pick up the substitute car, which eventually is a Renault Megane IV sedan, with 1.5 diesel engine, automatic gearbox and nearly 60,000 kilometres on the clock. The car, driven by tens if not hundreds of drivers is rickety.

19 November 2021
I receive a letter from Uniqa. The insurer informs they have resolved to pay out 50% of compensation to Renault garage and pledge to pay the remaining half once an invoice is issued. Finance-wise all goes well.

21 November 2021
I park the substitute car in my garage and discover a scratch on the front bumper. Needless to say I refused to pay for insuring against my participation in the damage. I find the paint code and order a 10 ml paint with a brush on Allegro.

23 November 2021
For no apparent reason the car rental company wants the car back immediately, as the clock went past 60,000 kilometres and they need to have it serviced. I lie I am not home and cannot give the car back.

24 November 2021
The car paint does not arrive at my Paczkomat, although shoes for Szlachetna Paczka ordered on Monday came yesterday. I lie again to the car rental company I am away from home and the car stayed at home and cannot hand it over. Fortunately in the evening the paint arrives.

25 November 2021
I spend an hour in the morning cold carefully removing and painting the scratch. The effect is not awesome, but when a guy from the car rental company turns up at 4:00 p.m., he inspects the car carefully with a smartphone scorch and does not find the scratch. Several hundred zlotys are saved in my wallet. I pick up a Hyundai i30 with 1.0 engine from a lawn mower, with an automatic gearbox, which I dislike.

1 December 2021
I drive to Pyry to pick up a washing machine delivered to one of families I look after in Szlachetna Paczka. On my way there, the locking system conks out and driver’s door opens while I cross a speed bump. It’s all downhill now I hope.

7 December 2021
I pick up the car from repair. Done professionally, at the cost close to two-third of the vehicle’s value, but I do not give a damn about that expense. I am finally happy to have my well-run-in, looked-after reliable car with manual gearbox. With hindsight, I discover that the window opening mechanism in the left-rear door replaced during the repair does not work correctly. It will be fixed free of charge after Christmas.

Pandemic diary – weeks 90 & 91

Monday, 29 November 2021
In reaction to the new Variant of Concern (Omicron) the government announces tightened restrictions, which are… laughable and not enforceable.

Tuesday, 30 November 2021
Over the weekend I need to part with my girlfriend for a while. She moved to look after her (unvaccinated) mother down with COVID-19. Her saturation varies from 90% to 93%.
And customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups – age groups reported by ECDC have been changed and booster status has been sorted out.

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Wednesday, 1 December 2021
My girlfriend’s mother boosts today’s statistics of new infections. She will be isolated until 9 December, but actually is recovering. I believe it takes weeks before she pulls through.

Thursday, 2 December 2021
During the current wave infections of children aged below 12 are prevalent. Lots of friends whose offspring go to nursery or elementary schools now see their daughters and son down with COVID-19 (i.e. no longer asymptomatic carriers).

Friday, 3 December 2021
In Slovakia 1 in 358 citizens was tested positive the day before, in which the country sets the new record, hard to be broken, unless we underestimate potential of Omicron and testing capacities.

Saturday, 4 December 2021
70% of Warsaw’s population fully vaccinated. No idea how many unvaccinated słoiki hang around, no idea, how many of those people have deceased in the meantime, how many had previously been infected, how many no longer have antibodies, how many have had a booster. Statistics seem good for nothing.

Sunday, 5 December 2021
Ustronie Morskie as the first gmina in Poland reaches the threshold of 75% of population vaccinated with at least one dose.

Monday, 6 December 2021
Number of new infections reported within last 7 days: 163,687
Number of first doses administered within last 7 days: 161,593
The figures speak for themselves.

Tuesday, 7 December 2021
More than 2,000 patients on ventilators. Hospitals in Warsaw.
With hindsight – the Delta wave hits its peak of new infections with 7-day average of 23,425; lower than during two previous waves. Officially.

Wednesday, 8 December 2021
After a stay in hospital last week, my mother has symptoms of potential infection. She refuses to get the referral for a regular PCR test, so I buy an antigen test in a pharmacy and learn how to conduct it on my own. The result is clearly negative.
4 days later – all symptoms are gone

Thursday, 9 December 2021
The chart of new infections shows a plateau. Since 28 November the 7-day average number of new infections has been in a narrow range from 23,100 to 23,500 daily.

Friday, 10 December 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths hits 400. There is some chance hitting 500 is out of reach this month.

Saturday, 11 December 2021
Szlachetna Paczka final weekend is… also a great opportunity to catch the virus. A pity I have not been eligible for the booster ahead of it.

Reasons to worry

Being in a swing of things, I write for posterity, to record my mindset.

Note many reasons for optimism, but I keep hoping the future is brighter than today.

I worry about my country, about how it is ruled.

I worry about the rising inflation, since it impoverishes those already underprivileged. I do not worry about myself. The recent pay rise has offset the higher costs of living and my savings have been parked in inflation-linked government bonds. I know how to take care of myself.

I worry about my compatriots, stupid enough not to get their jab and merrily spreading the virus which takes away more than a thousand lives every three days.

I worry about my girlfriend’s mother, who is pulling through from COVID-19 (also unvaccinated) and possible long-term implications for her health.

I worry about my parents whose access to healthcare has been impeded by the pandemic. I worry about my mother’s cardiac problems which prevent her from having a hip joint surgery. I worry about my father who is facing a diagnosis to confirm or rule out a prostate cancer.

I worry that 5 out of 46 families looked after volunteers from Ursynów area in Szlachetna Paczka have not found their donators, less than a week ahead of the final weekend. More on this on Boxing day.

I do not worry, but have had several stressful moments after a car collision I had over a month ago. More on this in two weeks.

I long for a peace of mind. I long for a restful sleep and waking up later than 5:00 a.m. Fortunately, some of those issues will be sorted out. Others, which cannot be influenced by me, should not worry me excessively. Keeping a healthy distance towards whatever the life brings sounds like a good recipe for not ending up as a bundle of nerves.

Pandemic diary – weeks 88 & 89

Monday, 15 November 2021
The first full week of November should bring normalisation of statistics, distorted by two long weekends and consequent scant testing.

Tuesday, 16 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 15,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 30 October, 18 days earlier), but is 36% lower than on 16 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 3 days. I predict the 20,000 hurdle will be crossed on 24 November.

Wednesday, 17 November 2021
What a wipe-out! Nearly 25,000 new infections and more than 15,000 hospital beds occupied. The Czech prime minister announced a lockdown for the unvaccinated. The Polish government does not want to mess with anti-vaxxers.

Thursday, 18 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 200. With such statistics of new infections and 53% of population vaccinated, I believe the number hits 500 in December.

Friday, 19 November 2021
Austria imposes a lockdown for everyone, including the vaccine, for 10 days starting on 22 November and mandatory vaccinations starting from February 2022. They’ve got balls.

Saturday, 20 November 2021
My girlfriend’s unvaccinated mother is down in bed with some sort of infection. She refuses to go to a doctor nor to get tested…

Sunday, 21 November 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 20,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 4 November, 17 days earlier), but is 7% lower than on 21 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time, as the number was hit 3 days earlier than foreseen. I predict the 25,000 hurdle will not be crossed during this wave.

Monday, 22 November 2021
In Romania and Latvia where the delta wave has taken a heavy toll, people rushed to get vaccinated. In Poland the health service begins to get overwhelmed, daily number of deaths is three-digit, though 4 times lower than in early April 2021, but local morons do not seem well convinced they should get their jabs. There has been some increase in first doses (up by more than 50% since trough), but crowds have not rushed to get immunised.

Tuesday, 23 November 2021
Had an antibody test done, more than 5 months after the second dose. My antibody count is 163 BAU/ml, vs. cut-off of 33.8 BAU/ml. Of course there is the humoral response, but definitely I can’t feel comfortable with such immunity. I will need to sign up for the booster in late December or early January.

Wednesday, 24 November 2021
A day of sad records broken:
- 1 in 415 citizens in Czech Republic was tested positive yesterday,
- Warsaw sees record-high number of new infections, i.e. 2,449,
- more than 570,000 people are under quarantine in Poland, the highest number since the onset of the pandemic.

Thursday, 25 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 300. Most of those deaths could have been avoided. The pace of the pandemic slows down and the inflection point is not far ahead. I bet it is on 2 December.

Friday, 26 November 2021
Just when I thought the record would not be broken, in Czech Republic 1 in 387 citizens was tested positive. This happens in a country where 58.7% of population have been fully vaccinated and 19.4% had been tested positive since the pandemic began. Herd immunity is out of reach.

Saturday, 27 November 2021
The R(t), i.e. reproduction number in Lubelskie and Podlaskie provinces has declined sustainably below 1.0, which means the epidemic is past the peak in new infections. Even without restrictions, this is a natural course of the epidemic driven by patterns of social interactions.

Natolin, November, walk

A lot is going on around. The pandemic is covered by my bi-weekly diary. I could go on about inflation and record-weak Polish currency. I could write a dissertation on a dismal situation on the Polish-Belarusian border. I could come up with a nasty longer comment on the launch of TVP World, a decent competition to Russia Today. I could, but I won’t. I care about what is going on around, but my mind needs to get some rest from what is upsetting me.

So for the record, a photo coverage of my morning walk taken yesterday. 8:30 a.m., end of the second decade of November, sunshine, gusty wind and +10C. Spring in the air, while the winter is coming.

The Park im. Cichociem-nych is due to be revitalised in near future. For no apparent reason, restoration works involve chopping down several trees, a part of the project which many locals oppose. I see no idea why this coppice is to give way to a cycling path, which may run past the trees.

The first work done has been digging up the ground for the cycling path. The progress of works has come to a halt. Since early November nothing more has been done. The desolated area is fenced off and probably waits for the advent of winter.

The base of POW construction site is being wound down. Astaldi workers have taken away the car park and I hope they bring the area back to how it had looked out before machinery came in. I hope the concrete will give way to greenery. In the distance, a tunnel supervision centre and fume let-out chimneys. I wonder if the last section of S2 is opened before Christmas.

The Oczko wodne Moczydło 2 next to Las Kabacki, a hangout for ducks, in the summer a swimming pool for local dogs. Looking at the photo one would find it hard to guess whether it was taken in late November or in late March.

The sun-lit track which connects the underground line to the rest of the world. For more than 2 years I have not spotted a single railcar on it. Looking forward to the news of new underground trains being trundled here to the nearby depot, probably next year.

A rural view of Ursynów. The forest behind, a mown meadow with molehills ahead of me. Tall blocks of the district far in the distance. I am half a mile from home in an entirely rural area. I am glad to have found the place I belong!

For the end of the stroll, at look at ul. Moczydłowska, ultimately freed from motorists parking their vehicles on both sides. After several inspections and wheel blockers put on by the straż miejska, sods have finally learnt that road belongs to pedestrians, cyclists and runners.

Pandemic diary – weeks 86 & 87

Monday, 1 November 2021
This year cemeteries have not been closed. I ventured to visit the graves of my relatives yesterday and the day before yesterday, on both days before noon. Cemeteries were anything, but crowded. One could enjoy the spell of late autumnal warmth (day-time highs above +15C).

Tuesday, 2 November 2021
The number of new infections declines on a week-on-week basis. Not a reason to be cheerful, since we can put it down to the bank holiday yesterday.

Wednesday, 3 November 2021
Will Poland follow the path of Britain, where the level of new inflections is high, but fairly stable, without distinct waves? Some experts claim it is conceivable.

Thursday, 4 November 2021
Statistics of new infections catch up after the long weekend, hence over 15,000 cases are reported. But the more terrifying figure is the number of new deaths.
In Slovenia 1 in 460 citizens is tested positive, thus the country breaks the record set in Belgium on 30 October 2020 (1 in 487 citizens tested positive).

Friday, 5 November 2021
The number of fully vaccinated Poles exceeds 20,000,000 (which is less than 53% of population, less those who have died since getting their jab).

Saturday, 6 November 2021
250 million officially reported cases worldwide. I would safely bet the actual number is above 1 billion.
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 10,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 23 October, 14 days earlier), but is 52% lower than on 6 November 2020. I got it wrong, this time fortunately, but by just 2 days. I predict the 15,000 hurdle will be crossed on 13 November.

Sunday, 7 November 2021
The 7-day average of new deaths exceeds 100, which translates into CFR of …, given a customary delay of 14 days between new infections and new deaths. This implies around … of cases are not detected.

Monday, 8 November 2021
10,000 hospital beds occupied. Still far from the peak of around 34,000 occupied in April 2021.

Tuesday, 9 November 2021
The number of new infections in Germany is now higher than during the previous waves. The country has relatively low, given the standards of the Western Europe, vaccination rate, with inhabitants of the eastern land (former GDR) being more reluctant to get the jab.

Wednesday, 10 November 2021
Among 11 best-vaccinated communes (gminy) I see:
5) Warsaw, where I and most of my friends live,
6) Poznań and
7) Wrocław where several of my workmates live,
9) Konstancin-Jeziorna where my father hails from and some of my family members live,
10) Piaseczno, where I grew up,
11) Lesznowola, where my parents live where I resided for nearly 13 years.

Thursday, 11 November 2021
In 2020 the second wave reached its peak (as measured by the 7-day average of new infections). This year the wave is still ascending, yet I predict it might reach a peak in late November and then slowly descend.

Friday, 12 November 2021
The Austrian government a lockdown only for the unvaccinated (except for those recovered). Austria joins the group of countries taking harsh measures to crack down on those unwilling to get the jab. The Polish government has no intention of irritating its mostly brainless electorate.

Saturday, 13 November 2021
The best summary for the way the government handles to fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland: “Poles are left to their own devices”. Fortunately, FFP2 masks are widely available, whoever wants will find a vaccination centre round the corner.

Stagflation

Some time ago I believed the term coined in 1970s would become the thing of the past, explored by students of economics and occupying few pages in their textbooks. The stagflation in 1970s arose from a negative supply shock and was successfully combated by tight monetary policy and drawing back on economic liberalism. The price to pay was a rise in unemployment and downfall of inefficient, uncompetitive industries.

Rings a bell? In 1970s real negative interest rates were prevalent in developed economies, as they are today. In 1970s a surge in oil prices contributed to the stagflation; today disrupted supply chains and shortages of several components might produce a similar outcome.

The two comparisons might misguidedly suggest the today’s situation is parallel to what was witnessed over 40 years ago, while it is not.

The COVID-19 pandemic, especially in its early phases, prompted unprecedented government stimulus programmes. As several sectors of economies were brought to a halt to curb the spread of the virus, the governments had to feed mouths of those who were forbidden to work. If the link between the output and the money is broken, it means the supply of money on the market is not counterbalanced by goods or services produced and so prices inevitably rise. This has happened with a delay of a few quarters.

Frail economies of several countries were propped up by ultra-loose monetary policies, giving relief to debtors and inducing those holding cash to spend it. I suppose there are other precisely targeted measures to help out those devoid of stream of revenues. If you earn no money it does not matter much whether the interest rate on your debt is 3% or 0%.

Although the pandemic has been brought under some control in several countries, supply chains continue to be disrupted. Lack of semi-conductors, disruptive for several industries, brings supply of several goods down, which, holding everything else unchanged, pushes their prices up.

Also the climate change and efforts to slow the AGW down begin to have impact on prices of energy and fossil fuels. The time has come to pay the bill for exploitation of the planet. Prices of several goods will need to incorporate the harm done to the planet by the consumers.

As a banker I have industry insights which are out od reach for an ordinary man. I closely see how soaring prices of some raw materials send profitability of some companies up and others down. On some markets where prices increased by a few hundred percent over the recent year, buyers said they’d had enough and would rather cease to manufacture rather than produce with a loss if they are unable to pass the rising cost of raw materials to off-takers. Such phenomena are a clear signal stagflation might be in the offing.

The inflation will always have its beneficiaries, but most economic actors lose on it. Usually those better off are debtors and worse off are their creditors. On top, the poorest suffer the most. Prices of dwelling upkeep and basic food have risen by more than 6% over the recent year, hitting the wallets of the underprivileged.

I am grateful for my wisdom and intuition thanks to which I invested my savings in inflation-linked government bonds which in 2022 will pay me coupons up to 8%, with risk and liquidity profile far superior to a residential property which is considered the main alternative to bank deposits in Poland

Pandemic diary – October 2021 notes

Saturday, 2 October 2021
7-day average of new infections exceeds 1,000 in Poland (in 2020 it hit the mark on 25 September, 7 days earlier), but is 37% lower than on 2 October in 2020. I sadly predict the 2,000 hurdle will be crossed on 13 October. I will resume the pandemic diary published in bi-weekly intervals once it reaches 3,800 (i.e. 1 infection per 10,000 citizen detected daily).

Tuesday, 5 October 2021
According to my estimations (no exact figures available) 80% of Warsaw’s 80+ population have received at least one dose of any vaccine against COVID-19. The calculations do not take into account inhabitants of the city registered (zameldowani) is their home towns. Nevertheless, new infections keep rising in Warsaw, albeit not as fast as in a poorly vaccinated Lubelszczyzna province.

Sunday, 10 October 2021
The Polish government seems to aim at possibly many people getting immunity naturally, or encouraging people to get vaccinated by letting them see other unvaccinated people seriously ill or dying.
In 2020 on masks became mandatory outdoors. Let’s cherish the lack of that senseless obligation, at least for the time being.

Thursday, 14 October 2021
I get it wrong, by just one day. 7-day average of new infections exceeds 2,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 6 October, 8 days earlier), but is 59% lower than on 14 October 2020. I predict the 3,000 hurdle will be crossed on 22 October.

Saturday, 16 October 2021
The Baltic countries reported around 1 case per 1,000 citizens in recent days. The pandemic seems to be in overdrive there. With appropriate testing (a daydream) Poland can conceivably reach the same level.

Wednesday, 20 October 2021
New infections in Poland up by 111% week-on-week. I get in wrong again, this time the 7-day average of new infections exceeds 3,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 10 October, 10 days earlier), but is 61% lower than on 20 October 2020. I make no more predictions, but believe the 7-day average crosses 5,000 before the end of October. The wave is bearing down on Warsaw.

Thursday, 21 October 2021
Latvia is the first European country to go into lockdown this autumn. Schools, HoReCa and entertainment sector will be closed for everyone until 15 November. Then they will be reopened, but only to Green Pass holders.

Friday, 22 October 2021
7-day average of new infections gets above 3,800, i.e. above 1 detected infection per 10,000 citizens daily. Time to resume to timeline and brace for the bad times.

Saturday, 23 October 2021
The Polish government was very intent on imposing restrictions during the previous waves. These days it takes a wait-and-see approach and only steps up enforcing the indoor masking mandate. Even in districts where 1 in 1,000 citizens is tested positive daily no measures are taken. A disaster looms ahead.

Sunday, 24 October 2021
Romania and Bulgaria, the least vaccinated countries in the EU, resort to use of Green Passes as obligatory to enter public facilities. According to their governments, the moves are necessitated by spikes in new infections in both countries. Long queues are witnessed outside vaccination centres.

Monday, 25 October 2021
Romania, Ukraine, Baltic Countries – in all those poorly vaccinated post Soviet countries the current wave is higher and deadlier than previous ones. Poland is in for the same fate.

Tuesday, 26 October 2021
The 7-day average of new infections exceeds 5,000 (in 2020 it hit the mark on 15 October, 11 days earlier), but is 54% lower than on 26 October 2020. I predict the 10,000 hurdle will be crossed on 4 November (due to limited tested around All Saints’ Day).

Wednesday, 27 October 2021
In some districts in eastern Poland more than 12 new infections per 10,000 residents are reported, which means around 1 in 800 person is tested positively daily. No new restrictions are there in place, locals have not got convinced to get vaxxed. How long before the wave burns out.

Thursday, 28 October 2021
A good day. My parents receive a booster. They will be safer during the awful weeks ahead.

Friday, 29 October 2021
On 19 March 2021 I predicted the total number of infections in Poland would hit 3,000,000 on 8 May 2021. Fortunately, I was wrong, by some 170,800 cases, or by 174 days. Hereby I predict the number of new registered infections hits 4,000,000 on 26 January 2022.

Saturday, 30 October 2021
The worldwide official death toll hits 5,000,000. A round number has little to do with reality, as actual the number of fatalities of COVID-19 hit eight digits months ago.

Sunday, 31 October 2021
And customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups – I believe the data reported by ECDC are wrong, since booster doses are reported as first doses, hence high first dose uptakes in 80+ and 70-79 age groups. I hope by the end of November it gets sorted out.

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

The Asperger syndrome – diagnosed

Since early childhood I have felt a kind of different. I have long felt my perception of the world differs from the way the surrounding reality is seen by other people. Years went by, the sense of difference has lingered, yet no longer bothered me. In the adulthood I have been mature enough to foster my distinct personality and learnt not to try hard to fit in where I do not.

With hindsight I believe this blog, which I run mostly for myself and for posterity rather than for a handful of readers, also reflects the syndrome I have.

At the beginning of the relationship with my girlfriend I told her I considered myself a weirdo (dziwadło). It got on her nerves when I called myself a weirdo, yet she noticed in some ways I am unlike other people. She spent hours digging up the Internet and her supposition fell on mild autism or Asperger syndrome. To cut the long story short, I went through a comprehensive (and not inexpensive) diagnosis and have been officially diagnosed with Asperger syndrome.

If you know me well, how would you recognise I am afflicted with this inborn and incurable syndrome (I prefer not to use the word “disorder”)? I am fascinated with everything which can be described with numbers (including the pandemic), memorise them easily, have strong analytical and problem-solving skills, I have specific uncanny interests (recall my winter timelines?), tend to focus on ideas and am guided by principles. Unlike most people with the syndrome, I have no major problems with communication, empathy, recognising emotions or fostering relationships, nevertheless I tend to get stressed when facing new situations or people too intensely.

The team who have diagnosed me told I me I was doing reasonably well and actually did not need therapy to function well in the society. I just have the Asperger syndrome and need to get on with it. They claim I have put in a lot of hard work to develop social skills which come naturally to other people, but for an observer unfamiliar with the syndrome the difference between me and a neurotypical person is hard to grasp.

I should not attempt to change myself, rather embrace myself with all skills and deficiencies which are a part of me. I only somewhat fear my children might inherit the syndrome as forms of autism are generally hereditary.

Frankly speaking, I am still coming to terms with the diagnosis, climbing into a higher level of self-awareness and self-development.

Rome – some snaps from the eternal city

Time to share a part of the photo coverage of the recent foray to Rome.

Starting out with hints for travellers planning to visit the capital of Italy:
1. Buy (cheap = WizzAir) airline tickets for weekdays rather than extend the weekend – we flew there on Sunday and came back on Thursday and the cost was some 50% in comparison to an extended weekend. Another advantage of such slot is the lower number of tourists during the working week.
2. Four days are an ideal duration of your stay in Rome, unless you are a museum freak; this also lets you take hand luggage only and save on baggage charges.
3. Take SitBus shuttle from and to the airport – maybe the fastest, but the cheapest way to get to the centre of Rome (a return ticket for an adult for mere 13 Euro).
4. Unless you are a museum freak, do not buy Roma Pass – cost-wise it makes no sense.
5. Do not even dare to hire a car! Italians drive like lunatics. Plus cost-wise and convenience-wise it also makes no sense.
6. Buy bus tickets and museum entry tickets online and have QR codes in your phone to avoid wasting time queuing up.
7. AirBnB offers a wide range of affordable dwellings in cosy neighbourhoods in which you can feel the climate of Rome.

Before setting off, I weighed up whether to take my nine-year-old Olympus camera, or to just take shots with my smartphone. I compared photo quality from the two devices and eventually picked the camera. However once I get upgraded to a new Samsung S20FE (due to be delivered by a courier by the end of October), the photo quality is likely to be comparable.

First snap, taken from the Palatine hill shows the panorama of a part of Rome and underscores the undulating sites on which the city was built. It does take some fitness to walk uphill and downhill while wandering around the city. As the pic was taken, temperature topped +28C.

The Victor Emmanuel Monument is said to be the blot on the landscape of the capital of Rome as it totally does not fit the surrounding buildings. Note the lack of lanes marked out at Piazza Venezia – here law of the jungle is in force, yet Italian drivers find themselves well in such traffic chaos.

The Roman Forum looks best if you watch it from the distance and slightly from above. The ruins are constantly restored, but one feels the scent of the past at the scene. Note the yawning (or screaming) lad at the right edge!

A typical street in central Rome is narrow, laid with cobblestone, has restaurant gardens over most of the year and… has cars parked on it and brazenly disrupting pedestrian traffic. I have no idea why residents of Rome are so car-ridden. Cars occupy far too much space on the streets, mostly those parked everywhere.

The temple of Pantheon is one of entrance-free tourist attractions, hence a long and winding queue of tourists waiting up to get in. We decided not to queue there, but returned two days later in the evening, when the line turned out to be shorter and the wait lasted mere 20 minutes.

For some fans of classic automobiles, an original Fiat 126 (not confuse for Fiat 126p manufactured in Poland) on old, black number plates, sitting the in the downpour near Borghese gardens.

The Spanish stairs and the entire Piazza de Spagna are less breath-taking than on photos. Also the weather (it just ceased to rain) and the season of the year (in spring the stairs are adorned with flowers) probably have taken some gloss off it.

Di Trevi fountain, though magnificent, is squeezed between other buildings, hence the crampy site also spoils the atmosphere. I advise to pop over here around sunset, when the fountain is lit up. For some an ideal spot to pop the question.

When planning your trip, choose some uncanny places seldom visited by tourist. We ventured to the southern outskirts of Rome to see the remnants of an aqueduct which carried water to Rome two centuries ago.

A Polish accent in the Vatican Museum – the battle of Vienna, painted by Jan Matejko and handed as a gift to a pope in 1860s. The painting commemorates fending off Muslims at the gates of Europe and defending Christianity. Today it brings off ambiguous associations.

St Peter’s square in turn looks smaller than on photographs. To the left – St Peter’s basilique (entrance also for free, queuing lasted around 20 minutes), to the right – a building from which the Pope speaks every Sunday at noon. I had to use to search engine to learn he appears on the second-right window on the top floor.

A typical picture of squalid Rome. Rubbish scattered everywhere spoil the character of the city. One reason for this is the inadequate number of rubbish bins, the other are long-lasting problems with waste collection which plague several Italian cities.

Trastevere, the essential Rome and the most climatic part of the city is a must-see district. Here, a classic view of it – a narrow, cobblestone-laid street, scooters parked, laundry hung out to dry on strings above the street, flowerpots. The place I long to return to!

Unlike in Berlin, Paris or in Warsaw, the river banks are not the a popular hangout nor a nightlife spot. River banks have been laid with concrete, one can see few walkers, runners or cyclists (a bicycle is not a popular vehicle in Rome) there. Maybe the threat of flooding is the answer why the river banks remain undeveloped…

Rome – travelling in COVID times

I hereby reported I have returned from a foreign trip. My two recent holidays were in spent in homeland, either at the seaside or into the mountains. It was my first flight since the onset of the pandemic; I crossed the border of Poland for the first time since June 2019 and spent a few days abroad for the first time since May 2018 (which was a memorable journey).

The pandemic at first was associatied with a stay-at-home order and absolute ban on travels. Nineteen months into it, travelling has been tamed. It involves some limitations, but is utterly doable.

Some more hassle is necessary before you set out. Provided you have been fully vaccinated and can download the Green Pass, the only other formality which needs to be handled is filling in Passenger Locator Forms (PLFs) for everyone crossing borders on board of an aircraft. The one necessary to enter Italy is bothersome, the one filled before returning to Poland, less complex.

At the airport in Warsaw nobody bothered to check neither the Green Pass nor the Italian PLF. Consequently it seems anybody can enter Italy. At the Fiumicino airport in Rome also nobody took the trouble to inspect anything.

While in Rome, Green Passes came in useful five times – to enter Colosseum, Roman Forum, Pantheon, The Vatican Museums and St. Peter’s Basilica. Besides, I have seen no single eatery / restaurant where Green Passes were checked. The other story is that we always dined outdoor and walked in only to use toilets.

In terms of wearing masks indoors, the Italians exhibit exemplary discipline. In the underground less than 1% of passengers had their mouth and nose not properly covered, same in shops. In crowded outdoor places more than 50% wore masks. It seems the trauma of spring 2020 is still alive, although except for face-covering obligations and limits on number of people in various places, no other restrictions are in place in Italy. The locals live it up as before the pandemic, respecting the social distancing and masking rules. For such reason Italy has seen new infections dwindling from late August by over 50%, while in Poland they soared since then.

Back at the airport in Rome our Green Passes were controlled twice (once before going through security, then before boarding) and then, to my surprise the staff at the Warsaw airport checked them again.

The biggest nuisance is having to wear a mask for several hours (airport, flight, transport to and from the airport), besides I see no major drawbacks of travelling during the pandemic. We have no choice, but to learn to live with the virus, trusting in science (get the jab!) and hoping it does not mutate to escape the vaccine-induced immunity.

A photo round-up is due next week.

Pandemic diary - September 2021 notes

Wednesday, 1 September 2021
The school year begins. Nearly everyone hopes things shape up well, but too few people take precautions so that things go well. I fear the delta wave has begun in earnest in Poland.

Tuesday, 7 September 2021
The delta wave reaches it peak in Israel, with more than 10,000 new infections per day confirmed. The country has begun to give out the third dose of Pfizer vaccine to fully vaccinated adults. This helps contain the pandemic (with hindsight – new infections have fallen by more than 50% within 3 weeks since then).

Thursday, 9 September 2021
Looking at pandemic figures in highly-vaccinated countries, one easily notices the pandemic retreats in Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Italy and in several other countries where more than 60% of the population have been vaccinated.

Saturday, 11 September 2021
50% of Poland’s population fully vaccinated (way too little).

Friday, 17 September 2021
Two-third of all residents of Warsaw (including children below 12) fully vaccinated. The capital of Poland ranks third in Poland in terms of full vaccine uptake.

Tuesday, 21 September 2021
The government approval application of the third dose of any mRNA vaccine for health-care staff and everyone aged 50+. Waning protection has become a matter of fact and quite probably smart folks will face a necessity to get jabs twice a year until this mess is brought under control.

Wednesday, 29 September 2021
More than 1,000 new infections on one day reported for the first time since 27 May 2021. In 2020 a four-digit figure was first reported on 19 September.

Thursday, 30 September 2021
And customary month-end report, of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Electric cars – a future of motoring?

Experts in green transport convince us we have no choice, but to switch to electric vehicles, if we are to hold up the global warming and save the planet. The transition is to be long-lasting and carried out in stages, but ultimately, between 2030 and 2050 many European countries are bound to ban sales of brand-new cars with traditional combustion engines. Before the strict prohibitions come into effect, milder measures will be taken, particularly traditional vehicles will be forbidden entry to central areas in bigger cities. In the transitional period, hybrid cars are gaining popularity. They prove economical in town, but do not perform well in terms of fuel consumption in motorway driving, even at moderate speeds. Nevertheless, they help their drivers feel less guilty.

To make it clear, I do not dare to call into question the necessity to drastically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. We should go to any length to protect the planet if our children and grandchildren are to inhabit it. I only wonder, whether electric motoring is definitely the best option.

Electric buses running around town and charged at terminuses or in depots – I am all in. But electric (only) passenger cars? Potential buyers see several drawbacks of such vehicles.

The first aspect which puts many people off is the price – such cars generally cost twice as much as their counterparts with traditional engines. Given savings per 1 kilometre and decreased cost of maintenance, the payoff distance is between 100,000 and 200,000 kilometres. The only way to get around this is to have governments subsidising purchases of electric vehicles and thus redistributing wealth.

The second discouraging factor is the inconvenience. Range of the best-performing electric vehicles reaches these days around 400 kilometres and such distance is only theoretical, i.e. achievable in ideal conditions – driving at steady speed, on a flat road, with windows closed, aircon off, etc. Charging infrastructure is still way too meagre to facilitate charging of several vehicles. On top, charging up batteries takes much more time than filling up the car. These factors make longer journeys inconvenient. In fact an electric car is good for driving around town, while in fact a car is the least desirable way of moving about in a city and should not be promoted.

The electricity mains and installations in most houses lack capacity to facilitate charging many such cars overnight. My father, an electrician, has worked out that if two cars were charged simultaneously in the underground garage of my building, the energy consumption (around 7,500 Watts) will be around 100% allowed for the installation. The third car plugged in would blow fuses. Electric installations in buildings and the entire power grid (which is likely to conk out in the event of a heat wave in Poland) need to be adjusted if cars are to run on electricity.

If we are environment-conscious, we should realise where the electricity in our sockets comes from. As long as Poland burns coal in power plants, electric cars still contaminate air, but at power plant chimneys, not at exhaust pipes. In Norway they make more sense.

Besides, a motor vehicle does damage to the environment only in 60% between the moment it leaves a dealer’s showroom and its last trip to a scrapyard. Manufacturing and recycling account for approximately 20% of carbon footprint each. Therefore if a carmaker prompts you to buy a new hybrid or electric SUV to save the planet, do not do it. You should rather look after your current car (provided it is a small and relatively modern petrol-fuelled one), drive it as rarely as possible and keep it going in good condition as long as possible.

We have to face a bitter truth. A car will become again a luxury good on account of its detrimental impact on the environment. Electric cars are not a perfect solution. The solution is to drive less, avoid short journeys and traffic jams, drive economically, choose to go by bicycle or by public transport around town. And not to deceive ourselves.

Cold, cold year?

Summer of 2021 will go down as the warmest since records began, but in Poland it was just slightly warmer than long-term average. Although June (thanks to its hot second half) and July were markedly warmer even in comparison to 1991-2020 reference period, August tilted the balance of the entire summer towards just “a bit warm” category.

With temperature averaging out +17.2C it was the coldest August in Warsaw since 2005 (+17.7C then) and the third-coldest in my lifetime, after August 1998 (mean temperature: +16.4C) and August 1993 (+16.6C). My parents remember six Augusts between 1976 and 1981 when average temperatures in Warsaw were ranging from +15.8C to +16.8C. In recent August there was no spell of exceptional cold (month-time low of +7.3C, while on average the lowest temperature in August is +7.8C), but on 12 days temperature did not top above +20C. Rainfall was also in abundance – monthly precipitation reached 166 millimetres, vs. long-term average of 61 millimetres (and was short of post-WW2 record by 13 millimetres).

September has been partly making up for the cold August, offering plenty of sunshine and day-time highs of +25C recently. Forecasters say the coming week should bring clement weather with temperatures peaking just below +20C. Preliminary forecasts for next months suggest October should bring above-average temperatures and Indian summer, while November is to be warm, but wet.

I wonder whether 2021 will be the first “cold” year since 2010. Until now, the year-to-date negative temperature deviation in Warsaw stands at some - 0.3 Celsius degree. If the trend continues, 2021 stands a chance to be the coldest since than 2010 (mean: +7.9C). So far four months (February, April, May, August) brought below-average temperatures. More than four months with below-average mean temperature in Warsaw were reported during my lifetime in 2003, 1996, 1991 and 1991. Everything depends now on the weather in the fourth quarter. But do not date to confuse weather for the climate. Just like one swallow does not make a summer, one colder year in just one part of the globe does not deny the continuing global warming.

Next post in two weeks (off for a wedding next weekend, hoping not to catch the Delta).