Pandemic diary – weeks 48 & 49

Monday, 8 February 2021
I wholeheartedly recommend the film, whose title can literally translated as “The sharp (or acute) shadow of a fog” to anyone interested in malfunctioning of medical rescue services in the pandemic.

Tuesday, 9 February 2021
The Polish Ministry of Health publishes a report on excess deaths in 2020, examines numbers and… draws little conclusions. Upon making allowance for demographic trends, Poland witnessed around 62,000 excess deaths in 2020. As the report says, the coronavirus is the predominant cause of majority of premature deceases. But it fails to mention lack of access to medical aid as the second major cause of increased mortality.

Wednesday, 10 February 2021
I pick up a parcel containing 25 FFP2 masks. If things countrywide get worse, I will pass some of them to my parents for use before they get vaccinated twice, some will be left for myself, in case the Polish government proscribes use of such masks in selected public spaces, as their German or Austrian counterparts did.

Thursday, 11 February 2021
New cases rise week-on-week by 8%, the 7-day moving average has reversed into the uptrend. Steepness of the imminent incline remains in the realm of the unknown. I bet as long as schools are not further reopened, the pandemic is not going to explode.

Friday, 12 February 2021
Czech Republic is the first large (above 10,000,000 citizens) country in which 10% of the entire population have been officially tested positive. Given several times more have surely not been detected, the country ought to be moving towards herd immunity. In theory; in practice the pandemic does not slow down.

Saturday, 13 February 2021
More and more medical pundits assert the vaccine will not bring us back to normalcy, as those vaccinated will be reasonably protected against death, critical hazard to health of complications from the virus, but may still transmit to others. Preliminary results from Israel indicate the vaccine also reduces transmission, yet those conclusions need to be approached with caution.

Sunday, 14 February 2021
The percentage of the UK variant in countries such as Germany, Denmark and France is rising. In Poland, sequencing based on a small sample indicates in Poland it accounts for less than 10% of infections.

Monday, 15 February 2021
The state of emergency is eventually extended in Czech Republic. This will save hundreds of lives, but the humanity will not wintess results of an experiment, which might, but was not poised to be tragic.

Tuesday, 16 February 2021
Pictures of Poles partying at the streets of Zakopane over the last weekend prove my compatriots behave like cattle freed out of a cage.

Wednesday, 17 February 2021
Covid-19 death meter hits 500,000 in the United States, but is bound to slow down. Pace of vaccination programme is impressive and the number of new infection has been on substantial decline for 5 weeks now.

Thursday, 18 February 2021
The February / March 2021 wave will likely be smaller than the October / November 2020 wave. The number of people with antibodies is probably between 5 and 10 million, most of them are the most active. Plus we have nearly a million of fully vaccinated citizens. On the other hand we have a starting point 10 times higher than in September 2020. Thanks to ongoing vaccinations it will hopefully be less deadly.

Friday, 19 February 2021
The Polish government intends to crack down on use of face visors, scarves and other clothing as face covering. Face masks will be the only legitimate way of covering nose and mouth. The actual problem is that the current regulations are not enforced and an increasing number of people do not give a damn about proper face covering.

Saturday, 20 February 2021
Week-on-week growth in the number of new infections in recent days:
- Tuesday: +27.7%,
- Wednesday: +25.4%,
- Thursday: +29.4%,
- Friday: +37.6%,
- Saturday (today): +29.2%.