Sunday, 28 March 2021

S7 expressway - progress check

Decided to make the most of yesterday’s first whiff of spring in March (in late February temperature topped over +18C twice, more on this in the annual Winter timeline, due in a fortnight), lugged my bike out of the basement, donned a thin face mask, a helmet and rode to inspect the progress on nearby S7 expressway construction site. Cycling note – this year instead of having my bike serviced at Decathlon, I did the brake adjustments, screwdriving, tyre change and chain lubricating and other stuff on my own. It spared me some 100 zlotys, saved not for a rainy day, but for time more conducive to living it up.

Having cycled through Las Kabacki, crossed ul. Puławska and cut across the cemetery in Pyry I find myself by ul. Baletowa. Here the road has been routed into a tunnel, wide enough to fit two lanes and pavements on both sides. It is around 11:00 a.m., traffic quite sparse so far.

On the western side of the tunnel, looking north towards Warszawa Południe junction (lamp posts in the distance are at the end of the finished, yet closed section of the expressway). Except for the excavator and the truck, no machinery nor workers on site. Feel kind of sorry for dwellers of nearby houses who have lived here for decades and soon they will need to put up with the neighbourhood of a noisy and fume-producing fast traffic.

Then I cycle south through Dawidy Bankowe. A shot taken from a bus stop by ul. Starzyńskiego, looking east towards the railway tracks. The sandy bottom layer of the expressway’s foundation is well visible. Watch out for the spot which has blotted all zoomed pictures taken with my 2012 compact Olympus camera since early 2018. I have got used to that mark, the bigger the higher optical zoom I set.

Down in Zgorzała, standing by ul. Dawidowska, looking north. The viaduct in the distance seems to be a part of the Zamienie junction, currently having no link to the existing road infrastructure.

Standing nearly in the same spot, looking south. The pylons suggest ul. Dawidowska will run beneath the expressway in a tunnel. For no apparent reason, this venue does not exhibit a high progress of works.

Still in Zgorzała, looking west towards housing estates in Zamienie whose dwellers will also find the expressway audible (despite noise barriers, humming can be heard within half a mile from a fast-traffic carriageway).

The viaduct marked on the map of the project as WD-4 is now in the middle of a field, but it is bound to link ul. Raszyńska in Zamienie with ul. Postępu in Zgorzała (i.e. the place from which the snap was taken).

On to Nowa Wola where ul. Krasickiego also has been put into a tunnel. If you zoom in, you should see lighting installed inside it. Inside the tunnel actually everything seems to be nearly ready, while outside there is no point in doing any finishing works, as construction machines would spoil the effects of tidying up.

I was quite astonished to behold two flyovers built over ul. Postępu in Nowa Wola. As it turns out, they are a part of a bigger junction connecting the designed DW721 and S7. The viaduct will carry slip roads – the north will take westbound traffic from Piaseczno to Warsaw, the south one will take all northbound traffic from S7 towards both Piaseczno and Lesznowola.

The last shot comes from ul. Słoneczna in Kolonia Lesznowola, where the current DW721 runs into the tunnel. All 3 tunnels I photographed are quite similar. Less than a mile south from here the section A has its end. Further works are not carried out after the National Road Authority has terminated agreement with the general contractor of section B. If the section A is completed within the deadline, first drivers should be able to get from Warszawa Południe junction to Lesznowola, and no further, in November 2022.

Cycled home through Piaseczno. Traffic was quite dense given several types of shops are shut down since today. Then through Las Kabacki again. As I approach home, I run across a scene customary on ul. Moczydłowska on Saturdays and Sundays – a Straż Miejska patrol putting wheel blockers to drivers who illegally parked their cars in a residential zone. I am all into this. Feel like strolling into the forest – take a longer walk and leave your car (if public transport or bike are not an option) where it is permitted, instead of almost driving into the very woodland!

Sunday, 21 March 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 52 & 53

Monday, 8 March 2021
The Polish government seems to take a wait-and-see approach to the third wave of the virus, which is close to the “let it drift” Swedish model. Infections are rising, restrictions are not imposed, social discipline is low and nobody knows which factors can preclude the ailing health service from collapsing.

Tuesday, 9 March 2021
Anyone keeping track of pandemic statistics discerns seasonality in reporting over the week. New infections are the highest from Wednesday to Saturday. The later during the week the peak is observed, the more clogged up the testing system is.

Wednesday, 10 March 2021
My parents receive the first dose of Pfizer mRNA vaccine in Grójec, mere 40 kilometres from home. The appointment for the second dose is on 14 April 2021, i.e. 35 days after the first one (vs. maximum duration of 42 days).

Thursday, 11 March 2021
The anniversary of my last day in the office. I am sick and tired of home office, but given the rising number of new infections (today: over 21,000) it definitely is the lesser of two evils.

Friday, 12 March 2021
AstraZeneca vaccine is temporarily withdrawn in nine European countries after lethal blood clots subsequent to jabbing are reported. Such incidences are not reported in the UK where the vaccine is widespread. In Poland the vaccine is notorious for its flu-like side effects.

Saturday, 13 March 2021
Warminsko-mazurskie province which has been into lockdown for 2 weeks does not see a substantial decline in new infections. Is the UK variant or the lack of social discipline to blame?

Sunday, 14 March 2021
Looking at charts showing new infections, I cannot resist an impression that Poland follows the path of Hungary, but lags approximately two weeks behind it. This means around 25 March we might see between 35,000 and 40,000 new infections daily. Given the healthcare system is already overwhelmed, such scenario would mean thousands of excess deaths.

Monday, 15 March 2021
The first day of a soft lockdown (which means there is no illegal stay-at-home order) in Mazowsze. In Warsaw and around statistics of new infections are already worse than in the peak of the autumnal wave, yet the current wave has not reached its peak yet.

Tuesday, 16 March 2021
From today on, anybody can apply for a referral for a PCR test through an online form. A solution whose goal is to offload GPs has to be amended on a first day, since unless you have all symptoms and have been in contact with an infected person, there risk is assessed as low or medium and the system does not qualify you for testing.

Wednesday, 17 March 2021
The number of patients under ventilators reaches 2,193 and is already higher than at the peak of the autumnal wave (2,149 on 23 November 2020). Over 25,000 new infections reported and the third wave, fuelled by the UK variant and lack of social discipline is picking up speed.

Thursday, 18 March 2021
In Strzelin district, Lower Silesia province, 1 in 543 inhabitants was tested positive yesterday. Nation-wide, with over 27,000 new infections we are not far from all-time record of the pandemic (27,785 new infections reported on 7 November 2020).

Friday, 19 March 2021
The number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Poland crosses 2,000,000. It took 273 days for the first million to be hit (on 2 December 2020) and 107 days for the second million. I bet the third million is reached in the first decade of May. My exact bet is on 8 May 2021.
Strzelin district looms as a horrifying hotbed of the virus, with 1 in 345 inhabitants tested positive yesterday. If such proportion held for the entire country, 110,000 new infections would be reported. Our daily testing capacity is around 160,000.

Saturday, 20 March 2021
Number of patients in hospital in Poland exceeded the peak from the autumnal wave (23,033 beds occupied on 17 November 2020).
Really bad days are ahead. The dynamics of new infections has risen this week to 36% week-on-week. The soft lockdown effective as of today will decrease the transmission, but unless people get scared the reproduction coefficient will stay above 1.0, which worries me.

Sunday, 14 March 2021

Dirty linen, washed in public

Watched, at time with bated breath, the controversial interview given by Meghan Markle and prince Harry to Oprah Winfrey. I have never been into fade of the Royal Family, nor particularly interested in their affairs, but gotten familiar with how the “Institution” functions inside out, I have promised myself to read a bit to catch up.

Needless to say, public image of the Royal Family is about keeping up appearances. A well-read man knows the Institution which has lasted centuries and which a symbol of the British Empire badly needs to look out impeccably and be perceived as such. Members of the Royal Family are obliged to take care of the impeccable image, at the expense of personal happiness. In fact this is their service, not a job, a service.

If everybody knows the Royal Family is definitely not as perfect as the picture of it painted in the media, why is there so much fuss about the interview? Meghan and Harry have decided to sign out of the charmed circle of strict rules and begun their own, unconstrained life, far from the golden cage there had been trapped in. They have also decided to divulge details from the Royal Family which were meant to never be brought to the life. The account of ruthlessness, duplicity and harassment within the Institution is anything, but astonishing.

Oddly enough, the Royal Family’s popularity with Britons is none the worse for the interview. It looks like the British citizens expect a neat, immaculate façade from the Royal Family and do not give a damn about the expense at which it is achieved. The perception of Meghan and Harry’s decision to wash some dirty linen in public is unfavourable. Such disapproval reflects condemnation for speaking up when evil is around and actually shows up conservatism of the British society. But if you break down the stances towards the interview by age groups, the elderly in majority disapprove of it, while the youngsters rather approve of the openness in speaking loudly about murky stuff.

Personally I note Meghan and Harry have displayed consistence in their deeds. At first they have chosen to loosed their links with the Royal Family and pay the price of getting financially independent, just a year after they divulged to the public facts which should take aback nobody.

Besides, do watch out for Harry’s worn-out suit and shoes :)

The interview has prompted me to catch up on the story of princess Diana, who was extremely popular with Britons, but was falling out of line with the old-fashioned image of the Royal Family. Time to catch up soon.

 

Apologies for mediocre quality of the posting. Writing-wise, I am not at my best today. Several of my friends are now down with COVID-19, including two in hospitals. My parents’ friend (for me uncle Krzysiek, somebody closer to me than relatives) is now under ventilator. I confess I simply worry and hope the third wave will not be as tragic as it looms.

Sunday, 7 March 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 50 & 51

Monday, 22 February 2021
Minister Michał Dworczyk, being in charge of the vaccination programme in Poland is tested positive for COVID-19. The amount of hate in comments to the announcement on his Twitter account is horrifying.

Tuesday, 23 February 2021
My mother gets a phone call from an administrator of the local University of the Third Age. She asks if my mother wants to take a (clandestine) coach trip. There are plenty of 60+ participants eager to finally get out of their homes. My mother turns it down…

Wednesday, 24 February 2021
In response to the rising number of infections the government announces lockdown in one of province and formally prohibit face covering other than masks. Besides, no new restrictions are announced. They wait for the story to unfold.

Thursday, 25 February 2021
There are 3 responses to the pandemic which has been with us for nearly a year:
1) apathy (I exhibit it),
2) aggression (understandably, though not commendably),
3) denial (worryingly).
The third one is the most dangerous way of overcoming the fatigue with restrictions and longing for normalcy. Even among my reasonable friends I see more and more of those who take “let things drift” stance

Friday, 26 February 2021
Given that people no longer give a damn about overwhelmed hospitals and hundreds of excess deaths, I wonder that would have to happen to prompt people to hold back from living normally and return to the same discipline we as a society exhibited in March 2020.

Saturday, 27 February 2021
Last week I went to a health centre to have a doctor examination for have my driving licence renewed, then to a photographer . This week I went to a library to borrow books and to a car parts shop to buy a bodywork paint to repair a scratched wing. In none of those places staff wore face masks.

Sunday, 28 February 2021
New cases week-on-week up by 37% (vs. +29.6% in a previous week). My bet for the next week is +45% and that the moving 7-day average reaches 12,500 new cases on Saturday, 6 March.

Monday, 1 March 2021
Politicians in their decisions whether to impose, retain of lift restrictions need to strike a balance between health service capacity, saving lives, economic and social effects of lockdowns, as well as mental and physical health of those who escape an infection. With time they tilt towards economy opening rather than saving lives. They follow sentiments of the society, who long for normalcy, even at the expense of more deaths.

Tuesday, 2 March 2021
7-day moving average of new infections crosses 10,000. A five digit number was last witnessed on 16 December 2020. It took 55 days of descent and then 21 days of ascent to reach five digits again.

Wednesday, 3 March 2021
10 million tests have been carried out in Poland since the beginning of the pandemic, i.e. in exactly one year. Poland ranks second in the European Union in terms of the lowest number of tests per 1 million citizens (behind Bulgaria).

Thursday, 4 March 2021
Exactly a year ago the first case of coronavirus was officially detected in Poland. The anniversary is marked by over 15,000 new infections, a figure last seen in the third decade of November 2020.

Friday, 5 March 2021
Changes in vaccination scheme are announced. The recovered will be administered just one dose, six months after being tested positive. The time between doses is extended for all vaccines. The new rules are to take effect on Monday.

Saturday, 6 March 2021
Checkpoint of my predictions made last Sunday.
New infections: +29.6% week-on-week (lower than my forecast of +45%)
7-day moving average of new infections: 12,066 (lower than my forecast of 12,500).