Pandemic diary – weeks 50 & 51

Monday, 22 February 2021
Minister Michał Dworczyk, being in charge of the vaccination programme in Poland is tested positive for COVID-19. The amount of hate in comments to the announcement on his Twitter account is horrifying.

Tuesday, 23 February 2021
My mother gets a phone call from an administrator of the local University of the Third Age. She asks if my mother wants to take a (clandestine) coach trip. There are plenty of 60+ participants eager to finally get out of their homes. My mother turns it down…

Wednesday, 24 February 2021
In response to the rising number of infections the government announces lockdown in one of province and formally prohibit face covering other than masks. Besides, no new restrictions are announced. They wait for the story to unfold.

Thursday, 25 February 2021
There are 3 responses to the pandemic which has been with us for nearly a year:
1) apathy (I exhibit it),
2) aggression (understandably, though not commendably),
3) denial (worryingly).
The third one is the most dangerous way of overcoming the fatigue with restrictions and longing for normalcy. Even among my reasonable friends I see more and more of those who take “let things drift” stance

Friday, 26 February 2021
Given that people no longer give a damn about overwhelmed hospitals and hundreds of excess deaths, I wonder that would have to happen to prompt people to hold back from living normally and return to the same discipline we as a society exhibited in March 2020.

Saturday, 27 February 2021
Last week I went to a health centre to have a doctor examination for have my driving licence renewed, then to a photographer . This week I went to a library to borrow books and to a car parts shop to buy a bodywork paint to repair a scratched wing. In none of those places staff wore face masks.

Sunday, 28 February 2021
New cases week-on-week up by 37% (vs. +29.6% in a previous week). My bet for the next week is +45% and that the moving 7-day average reaches 12,500 new cases on Saturday, 6 March.

Monday, 1 March 2021
Politicians in their decisions whether to impose, retain of lift restrictions need to strike a balance between health service capacity, saving lives, economic and social effects of lockdowns, as well as mental and physical health of those who escape an infection. With time they tilt towards economy opening rather than saving lives. They follow sentiments of the society, who long for normalcy, even at the expense of more deaths.

Tuesday, 2 March 2021
7-day moving average of new infections crosses 10,000. A five digit number was last witnessed on 16 December 2020. It took 55 days of descent and then 21 days of ascent to reach five digits again.

Wednesday, 3 March 2021
10 million tests have been carried out in Poland since the beginning of the pandemic, i.e. in exactly one year. Poland ranks second in the European Union in terms of the lowest number of tests per 1 million citizens (behind Bulgaria).

Thursday, 4 March 2021
Exactly a year ago the first case of coronavirus was officially detected in Poland. The anniversary is marked by over 15,000 new infections, a figure last seen in the third decade of November 2020.

Friday, 5 March 2021
Changes in vaccination scheme are announced. The recovered will be administered just one dose, six months after being tested positive. The time between doses is extended for all vaccines. The new rules are to take effect on Monday.

Saturday, 6 March 2021
Checkpoint of my predictions made last Sunday.
New infections: +29.6% week-on-week (lower than my forecast of +45%)
7-day moving average of new infections: 12,066 (lower than my forecast of 12,500).