Sunday, 25 April 2021

Bullshit Jobs - book review, plus some odd thoughts

After more than ten years into corporate credit analysis, without hesitation I can assure I appreciate my job. Despite some drawbacks, particularly the necessity to work overtime more or less often, it continues to offer me learning opportunities, it is not repeatable and far from boredom. I also believe it brings value added to the society and to the economy.

In simple words my job is to assure that money depositors store on bank accounts is safely lent to large companies. I dabble in traditional banking which is about taking deposits and granting loans rather than devising exotic financial instruments detached from real economy to earn money on speculation. Here I recall a scene from Margin Call film, in which one of characters, a quant who has just lost a job in investment banking, compares himself to a civil engineer whose job has tangible outcomes, such as a bridge. Sadly, the author of the book paints traditional and modern banking with the same brush and claims both are totally useless to the society, thus bearing testimony to his economic ignorance.

I have never thought my job can be socially useless, but several times I thought of people whose jobs brings little value added, therefore a few months ago I queued up in my library to borrow Bullshit Jobs – a bestseller book which dwells on a growing problem of people whose occupation seems to make no sense.

The sight of people whose jobs make no sense brings to mind communist economic regime, in which joblessness was voluntary, yet my no means somebody having a job was doing something useful. Pursuit of full employment was, however, characteristic not only to communism, but to Keynesianism worked up in the wake of the Great Depression in 1930s. Back then, when unemployment was a huge drag on the demand side of the economy, employment was increased at all cost in order to kick-start the economy and to trigger a more natural demand from those finally offered a job. Since that time, low unemployment has become one of key goals of economic policymakers, commonly acknowledged by societies, with demerits of such agenda (i.e. the bullshit jobs) being considered less harmful than higher joblessness.

So when the heck is your job a bullshit one? The author comes up with a simple definition – your occupation is senseless if you do something and nobody notices it. Fine, familiar with the definition, I revisit my position and scope of duties, which have evolved over more than a decade.

Keeping in mind the broader sense of what I do, I notice particular mundane tasks which actually waste my time, such as:
- filling in too many tables to feed the bureaucratic monster of managerial reporting,
- ticking off policy compliance checkpoints – a side effect of regulators’ effort to save the banking industry from subsiding at it did in 2008,
- attending too many meetings, some which are not particularly productive.

While being unable to influence the two former time-consuming activities, I try to take control of meeting into my hands and not let discussions drift into pointless threads. Instead, I ensure that conversations are straight into the point, concise and add value for every participant (I hate it when a meeting is attended by 10 people, but only 3 or 4 open mouths).

I also discern a problem of being supervised by too many managers. If I work on a transaction, it usually needs to be talked over with my team leader, with the head of my department, with the head of my area and with the chief credit officer. One person (me) to do the sheer work, four to supervise me. If I can see excess employment in banking, it is one managerial positions, where array of duties pertaining to supervising, co-ordinating, managing, delegating, facilitating is excessive as well.

I see it eye to eye with the author that companies have focused too much on improving processes and they waste resources on their pursuit to improve something, while benefits are meagre. This happens when you hire people to enhance processes instead of leaving it to ingenuousness of staff for who a process is a daily bread. A perfect example is the implementation of Agile methodology by my current employer. We, normally working people used come to the office, sit at our desks and knuckled down to work. They came to talk about working, design working. As we commented on it, we worked, they talked their heads off about working, their work was to take our work into pieces. Three years into the pursuit of the Agile, I observe the effects of trial-and-error search for improvement, rather than anything which has tangibly streamlined my duties.   

The authors aptly notices the recent decades have brought a substantial increase in productivity which firstly ceased (since 1970s) to translate into higher earnings of rank-and-files and secondly did send employment on decline. As machines took over several mundane and physically destructive jobs from people, not only machine operators, designers and maintenance crews had to come into place. The increase in productivity somehow sparked off a lot of administrative functions without which industries had functioned before. My bank last year hired a well-being officer. I have no idea what that person does apart from posting some useless notes on the intranet. If my employer fosters my well-being they should ensure I do not spend too much time working, so that I am not stressed-out and have time to family, friends, to relax, to do sports and keep fit. I will take care of myself if I have enough time and money. I do not need to be looked after by a well-being officer whose salary decreases my bonus (if the bank’s net income is to stay intact)!

Moreover, new industries have emerged which I consider spongers. Over those more than ten years I have singled out two professions which are very costly, but add little value. First are consultants, who get paid for borrowing your watch to tell you the time (14 years after reading that joke for the first time and having seen effects of work of big four companies and the top-class advisors, such as Boston Consulting Group or McKinsey, I am more than sure their contribution is not worth money they are paid), second are (some, but not all) intermediaries, living off commissions from transaction parties, with special focus on estate agents, whose reputation in Poland has been duly and deservedly tainted.

The author in his book fails to dwell on the phenomenon of pretending and deceit, which functions in public and private corporate world. Employees pretend they work, an employer pretends to appreciate their work. This vicious circle keeps turning, because nearly everyone has a vested interest in preserving it. I believe the author wrongfully points out people whose jobs are senseless are genuinely unhappy. I believe lots of people are glad to be paid for doing little and just some percent (including them) need to see the sense and value added in what they do.

Impressions after reading? The book is too leftist. Despite my restraint to joyfully embrace a free-market agenda, I find it hard to hold dear the idea of the basic income, especially as a measure to root out bullshit jobs. The author has probably not had too deep insights into organisations, as some of his observations are right at the first sight, but at second thoughts, doubts whether his straightforward view of the world is accurate begin to appear. And finally, the book is a reminder humans are social creatures and are not cut out for isolation – this ought to be repeated to employers who have cherished cost savings generated by home office and want to stick to such solution after the pandemic is brought under control.

Sunday, 18 April 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 56 & 57

Monday, 5 April 2021
Feel like being vaccinated without waiting your turn? Drive to Rzeszów where everyone can be vaccinated before registration opens for their age group. People queued up outside the vaccination centre and got their jab until somebody blew the scandal up. Mayoral election will be held in Rzeszów on 9 May 2021. But hold on, it’s just a coincidence!

Tuesday, 6 April 2021
Post-lockdown baby boom? No such luck! The number of births in Poland in January 2021 reached 25,000 (vs. 33,600 in January 2020). Hard lockdown in April 2020 has not translated into more conceptions. This does not surprise me.

Wednesday, 7 April 2021
Mobility (as evidenced by data from Android-operated devices) during Easter was 150% higher than last year, while the number of new infections was 100 times higher than in mid-April 2020. Rotation of vehicles outside my block of flats also suggested people visited each other a lot. In around a week we will find out whether social gatherings have impact on the further course of the epidemic in Poland.

Thursday, 8 April 2021
A lag in death reporting during Easter has led to a pile-up in deceases – 954 new COVID-19 fatalities. It looks like an all-time sad record, yet 7-day average of deaths will be on the rise for a week or two and will beat its record (on average 506 death daily on recent 7 days, reported on 25 November 2020).

Friday, 9 April 2021
On 26 March 2021 Poland ranked 14th in terms of absolute number of infections. It took me homeland 13 days to jump onto 11th position. Overtaking Germany which currently ranks 10th with current difference in new infections would take more than a month, therefore it seems unlikely.

Saturday, 10 April 2021
My friends take care of me. They tip me off where one can get vaccinated in Warsaw without queueing up. I do not make use of that information and (im)patiently wait my turn.

Sunday, 11 April 2021
The pandemic has brought out the worst human traits. I already detest those who deny existence of the virus or shrug it off, avoid testing, conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers. I cannot stand lack of responsibility, selfishness, carelessness. The side effect of the pandemic for my psyche will be a grudge against majority of people who are not living up to the occasion.

Monday, 12 April 2021
I must confess the pandemic fatigue is rubbing off one me. I need to resist it. I can live without open restaurants, bars, cinemas, shopping malls, but the obligation to wear face mask outdoors when nobody is around is something that detract from the pleasure of outdoor activities.

Tuesday, 13 April 2021
Let’s look how countries that have excelled in vaccinating their populations fare.
Isreal, where around 60% of all people are fully vaccinated reports a decline in new infections by 98% vs. peak in mid-January.
In the United Kingdom where half of adults have received their first dose and one in six adults has received two jabs, number of new infections is 95% lower than in early January. The country has unfrozen many business yesterday, but given the children have returned to schools a month ago and this has not contributed to a relapse of the epidemic, I believe the number of new infections is about to level off on a reasonably low level.
In the United States new infections bottomed out in mid-March and rose from 55,000 to 72,000 (I look at seven-day moving averages) – this is the effect of loosening restrictions too fast and the British variant taking hold.
In Chile a vaccine-related complacency has led to a sharp rise in new infections.

Wednesday, 14 April 2021
My parents receive their second doses of Pfizer vaccine. It seems they have managed to avert the infection. Family-wise in more than a week, life will return to normalcy, after over six months of self-imposed limitations.

Thursday, 15 April 2021
The seven-day average number of deaths from COVID-19 is now some 20% higher than at the peak of autumnal wave in November 2020. Each day COVID-19 contributes to 600 deceases, while normally at this time of year the number of death from all causes ran at 1,100. I fear April 2021 will be even deadlier than November 2020 when mortality was 97% higher than average in past five Novembers.

Friday, 16 April 2021
The number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide hits 3 million (bear in mind this is just the official figure). Just like a small country wept off the map.

Saturday, 17 April 2021
A big debate regarding the obligation to wear face masks outdoors has sparked off on Twitter, following clashes of epidemiologists; some of them say it makes sense, others claim they are useless, unless in close contact or in a crowded outdoor setting. The health minister say the obligation will be lifted once the new infections go down, but fails to pin down the exact level.
I commit to sign off this diary once 7-day average number of new infections drops below 2,887 (90% from peak reported on 1 April 2021).

Sunday, 11 April 2021

Winter Timeline 2020/21

According to most long-term forecasts, the winter was about to be one of the mildest ever (third such one in a row), however not as warm and snow-free as the previous one. With hindsight – the forecast has not proven accurate.

October 2020 was frost-free (with one incidence of ground frost, on 20 October 2020, when according to the official reading the temperature bottomed at +0.6C), partly sunny and warm, partly rainy and dull.
It was the seventh October without sub-zero temperature in Warsaw after 1950, after Octobers in 1957, 1961, 1989, 2008, 2017 and 2018. Worth noting in 1981-2010 three-decade reference period the first frost was observed on average on 15 October. As we are switching into 1991-2020 window, the first occurrence of sub-zero temperature in Warsaw is delayed on average by 3 days, to 18 October.

 

14 November 2020 – first frost. The temperature dropped to mere –0.1C just for less than an hour in the dead of night, yet it does count as frost. Nevertheless even had the temperature not slipped below the point of freezing, the record-late frost (currently 21 November, set in 2017) would not have been observed anyway, as on 21 November 2020 temperature fell below freezing again.

November 2020 as an autumnal month deserved a separate weather summary.

 

30 November 2020
From this year, I make a clear criterion on when to launch the winter timeline. It happens either at the day of first snow or when mean daily temperature drops below 0C for the first time – which distinct the thermal winter. On the last day of November only one criterion was met. The light dusting of snow which fell overnight melted well before midday, but the average temperature for that day was little above 0C (+0.1C).

1 December 2020 – 3 December 2020
Thermal, yet snow-free winter ensues. With gusty wind it feels chilly outside. Sometimes sunny, sometimes cloudy.

4 December 2020 – 6 December 2020
A whiff of warmth, with temperatures hitting double-digits, moderate sunshine and southerly winds.

7 December 2020 – 9 December 2020
Temperature close to 0C, but chilly wind makes it feel like –10C. Rather cloudy.

10 December 2020
It starts off as the darkest day (measured by solar power reaching earth surface) since 11 December 2016. Temperature is at –1C, so the snow shower which beings early in the afternoon and lasts until early evening, covers the land with white powder. The winter scenery is here for the first time since late January.

11 December 2020
Most of the snow fallen yesterday melts by the morning, the remnants by midday. We return to the gloom and positive temperatures.

12 December 2020 – 22 December 2020
Late autumn with temperature hovering between –2C and +6C returns. Quite stable weather, sadly with no sunshine at all. The gloom and lack of sunlight for 15 consecutive days (sunrays were last witnessed in Warsaw on 7 December) is underwhelming.

23 December 2020
After an overnight whiff of warmth (nearly +10C just past midnight), finally a few hours of long-awaited sunshine.

24 December 2020
Rainy, windy and hitting double-digits. Customarily, Christmas Eve brings a whiff of warmth. It is the seventeenth winterless (i.e. without both snow and frost) Christmas Eve in a row.

25 December 2020 – 26 December 2020
Colder and without sunshine, but with a light dusting of snow on Boxing Day (melts by midday).

27 December 2020 – 28 December 2020
Two days of sunshine, with inclining temperatures, starting from –4C to reach more than +7C.

29 December 2020 – 31 December 2020
The lousy year has late-autumnal ending in Warsaw. Cloudy, rainy and above 0C.

December 2020 was very warm Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.0C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C and Met Office Forecast of +1.0C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.1C on 5 December 2020,
- month-time low: –4.8C on 2 December 2020,
- the warmest day 5 December 2020 (daily average of +6.9C, just 0.2C degrees warmer than on Christmas Eve):
- the coldest day: 2 December 2020 (daily average of – 2.7C)
- number of days with snow cover: 2,
- the highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 11 December 2020.

 

1 January 2020 – 7 January 2021
Gloomy autumn refuses to give in. Not a moment of sunshine, at time rain, drizzle or sleet. Dampness in the air. Temperature between –1C and +4C.

8 January 2021
It snows and it melts nearly instantly, as the temperature is near zero and the ground is warm. Shortly before sunset sun emerges from behind clouds.

9 January 2021
After the entire day of the wait, it finally begins to snow in earnest in the evening. I hope the white powder does not melt (the temperature gently below zero, warm ground).

10 January 2021
What has fallen yesterday melts over the day, as the temperature rises above zero for twelve hours.

11 January 2021
Against forecasters, the entire day is sunny, bright and spirit-lifting. Temperature barely above 0C.

12 January 2021
After a reasonably light the day, snow showers come in the evening. Proper winter sets in.

13 January 2021 – 14 January 2021
Slightly below zero, with occasional snow showers. Poland is bracing itself for a cold blast.

15 January 2021
Heavy, but short snow in the afternoon. In the evening the temperature plunges into double digits below zero, for the first time since 2 years and 4 days (yes, the last double-digit frost was recorded in Warsaw on 11 January 2019).

16 January 2021
Not bitterly cold, with daytime high of –2.5C. The heaviest snow this year in the afternoon increases snow depth by 4 centimetres within 2 hours.

17 January 2021
It snows from dawn to dusk, while temperatures hover between –14C and –12C. The coldest night since:
(a) 2 March 2018, (–15.2C),
(b) 7 January 2017, (–19.3C),
(c) 12 February 2012 (–20.0C),
(d) 4 February 2012 (–22.2C),
ahead. It bet the correct answer is (b), namely that the minimum temperature will be in the range from  –19.3C to –15.2C.

18 January 2021
I get I wrong. The correct answer turns out to be (d), as temperature plummets to almost –21C, for the first time since almost 8 years. The day is sunny, but it gets no warmer than –13C. Another cold night ahead and bring on the thaw!

19 January 2021
Morning brings still double-digit frost and snowy weather. Over the day it gets warmer hour by hour, to reach –4C in the evening, when another snow shower hits Warsaw.

20 January 2021
A decent flurry in the morning, but by midday it thaws out. Winter slowly recedes, but it will take a while before six inches of white powder disappear.

21 January 2021 – 22 January 2021
The first, misleading whiff of pre-spring. Plenty of sunshine, temperature between –1C and +8C. Snows melt quickly.

23 January 2021
Thaw continues is a wet and gloomy mode. The rain washes away remnants of the snow.

24 January 2021
Awful late autumn returns. Dark, damp, accursed +1C.

25 January 2021
Snow showers begins in the afternoon, at temperature of +1C. In the evening it gets intense, while temperature falls and the snow lingers.

26 January 2021 – 28 January 2021
The little snow disappears slowly, especially since some light dusting of fresh now is observed occasionally. Between –1C and +1C.

29 January 2021
Below freezing and with gusty wind. Waiting for a snowy and frosty weekend.

30 January 2021
Snow falling from before dawn until after dusk; not heavily, but steadily. 8 centimetres of fresh now accumulate. Gently below freezing.

31 January 2021
A glorious winter, at last. Cloudless, azure skies, crisp snow beneath feet, day-time high of –3C, yet with chilly wind. According to long-term forecasts, we are in for a cold and snowy February.

January 2021 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was –1.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C and Met Office forecast of +0.4C). Stats:
- month-time high: +8.5C on 22 January 2021 (temperature soared by nearly 30 Celsius degrees within 4 days),
- month-time low: –20.6C on 18 January 2021 (first incidence of temperature below –20C since February 2012),
- the warmest day: 22 January 2021 (daily average of +3.8C),
- the coldest day: 18 January 2021 (daily average of –16.5C, compare it to the coldest day in January 2020, when temperature averaged out –0.7C),
- number of days with snow cover: 18,
- the highest snow depth: 15 centimetres on 20 January 2021.

 

1 February 2021
Exactly a year ago, I posted: “Believe it or not, but the first scent of spring is in the air.” February 2020 was the second-warmest since records began. February 2021 is foreseen to the one of the coldest months since 8 years (in February 2012 temperature averaged out –6.1C in Warsaw).
Today morning greets with low of –13C and the day brings lovely sunshine, maximum temperature of –2C and chilly wind.

2 February 2021
Two intense snow showers: one around noon, the other in the afternoon and then ensues a short thaw. I hope the snow does not disappear completely before negative temperatures return.

3 February 2021
Rain washes away almost all the snow. All-out thaw.

4 February 2021
Within 4 hours temperature declines from +7C to –1C. Some snow falls at sub-zero temperature, but does not linger. We are in for a few days when ground will not be sheltered from solid frost by snow cover.

5 February 2021
Sunny and warmer than expected. Day-time high of 0C.

6 February 2021
If you look outside the window it may seem to be a first intimation of spring. In fact sunshine makes the day-time high of –4C less winterlike.

7 February 2021
Chill and gloom. –12C at night, –9C in the afternoon, a light dusting of snow after sunset.

8 February 2021
It snows from before dawn until late evening. Total precipitation of 9 centimetres brings large swathes of Poland into near standstill. Falling snow is accompanied by gusty wind and temperature between –11C and –8C, which means chemical methods of roads clearing are less effective.

9 February 2021 – 10 February 2021
Occasional snow showers and somewhat higher temperature, i.e. single digit frost, but no warmer than –5C.

11 February 2021
Double-digit frost all time round, light snow showers. Long-term forecast say despite milder winter conditions coming over soon, Warsaw should not reckon for a thaw before the end of February.

12 February 2021
Today without a flurry; windy and sunny. No warmer than –8C, but wind chill of –15C.

13 February 202114 February 2021
Winter gets mild for the weekend. Day-time highs close to 0C, some sunshine in the afternoon. Forecasts of a big freeze in the coming days have been called off.

15 February 2021
Winter, mild. Light snow. As good as it gets.

16 February 2021
Sunny all day, with day-time high gently below zero. The face of winter I like.

17 February 2021
Snow falls from before dawn until after dusk, at times intensively. Since the temperature is close to the point of freezing, part of the snow melts, part lingers. Salted roads stay clear.

18 February 2021
A perfect winter. –11C in the morning, day-time high of –3C, azure skies. Chilly wind takes the gloss off the finery.

19 February 2021
From –11C at night to freezing rain in the afternoon and thaw in the evening. The winter episode comes to an end.

20 February 2021 – 23 February 2021
Winter retreats. Frosty mornings, afternoons nearing +10C and plenty of sunshine. Snow disappears within those 4 days.

24 February 2021
Central Europe receives a blast of African air. February heat records are broken at several weather stations, including Warsaw. The capital of Poland reports day-time high of +17.5C, thus beating the previous record of +17.2C set on 25 February 1990. Just five days earlier it was –11C.

25 February 2021
After a cold morning (0C) the temperature soars and in full sunshine the heat record set yesterday is broken. Day-time high is +18.3C. Funnily enough, in the nearby forest the snow has not fully melted. I do not remember seeing remnants of snow in such high temperature.
Worth mentioning all-time February heat record for Poland (+21.4C on 25 February 1990) is broken, as in southern Poland temperature reaches +22.1C.

26 February 2021
Colder (below +10C), rainy and chilly. Spring has fallen back quite quickly.

27 February 2021 – 28 February 2021
Sunny, still windy and single-digit positive temperature.

February 2021 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –2.3C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C and Met Office forecast of –0.4C). The month was full of contrasts – from harsh winter into record-setting heat. Stats:
- month-time high: +18.3C on 25 February 2021 (new heat record for February set),
- month-time low: –15.2C on 12 February 2021,
- the warmest day: 24 February 2021 (daily average of +7.9C, as warm as in early April),
- the coldest day: 11 February 2021 (daily average of –11.4C, bitterly cold),
- number of days with snow cover: 19,
- the highest snow depth: 12 centimetres on 12 February 2021.

 

1 March 2021 – 4 March 2021
Sunny or dull pre-spring. Single digits above zero.

5 March 2021 – 7 March 2021
Below zero at night, above freezing during the day. Mostly sunny, but with intermittent snow showers (melting on the ground instantly).

8 March 2021
I wake up to behold a light dusting of snow, which disappears by midday. I wonder if it is the last snow this winter.

9 March 2021 – 10 March 2021
Pre-dawn lows below –5C, day-time highs above 0C, so still a thermal winter. Sunny.

11 March 2021
Frosty morning, clement day. Heavy snow shower begins in the afternoon. The white powder lingers on the ground despite positive temperature. But it will melt overnight and I believe will not be the last snow this winter.

12 March 2021 – 14 March 2021
All faces of pre-spring. Temperature from around 0C to +10C. The weather is moody, so we spells of sunshine, overcast skies, rain, sleet and snow (melting instantly).

15 March 2021 – 17 March 2021
Colder day by day, with night-time frost and low positive temperatures during days. Precipitation, if any, in form of rain.

18 March 2021 – 22 March 2021
A spell of changeable weather with moments of sunshine alternating with snow showers. The white powder does not linger long, or just melts.

23 March 2021 – 31 March 2021
Early spring slowly takes over, with no night-time frost and day-time highs nearing +20C twice. Spring crawls slowly, but for good.

March 2021 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.2C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C and Met Office forecast of +2.8C). Stats:
- month-time high: +20.0C on 31 March 2021 (a lovely spring afternoon),

- month-time low: –6.6C on 10 March 2021,

- the warmest day: 31 March 2021 (daily average of +11.6C),

- the coldest day: 20 March 2021 (daily average of –2.1C),

- number of days with snow cover: 4, but on none of them the snow was thicker than 1 centimetre.

 

1 April 2021
The first assault of spring last shortly. +21C around noon and then the weather breaks.

2 April 2021 – 5 April 2021
Sunny, windy and thus chilly, at times rainy. Temperature between –1C and +13C, so it feels like pre-spring.

6 April 2021 – 8 April 2021
Somewhere on the verge of winter and pre-spring. Temperature between –2C and +8C, with gusty winds and several snow showers, including one heavy. Snow at times linger for up to an hour. Large swathes of Europe are haunted by an abnormally late winter incident.

9 April 2021
Just for the record, from my car’s maintenance notes – when I changed tyres for summer ones in recent years:
  7 April 2020,
  4 April 2019,
  3 April 2018,
  1 April 2017,
  2 April 2016,
11 April 2015,
  5 April 2014,
20 April 2013,
20 April 2012.
Which proves in recent five years outbreaks of truly spring weather would come in the first decade of April. 2021 breaks the pattern.
I called me off my tyre change appointment today and put it off until 19 April, by which time the pre-winter should give way to actual spring. Over the next week day-time highs might not exceed +10C on most days, but hopefully the final word of my winter timeline has not been premature.

Sunday, 4 April 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 54 & 55

Monday, 22 March 2021
I notice a random factor in how the virus attacks individuals. Some people have not given a damn about the virus over the last 6 months (before late September the risk was markedly lower), carried on as if there was no pandemic and the virus has not caught them, while others, despite strictly adhering to social distancing and hygiene rules, have got infected. The luck factor does matter here.

Tuesday, 23 March 2021
Over 1,400 COVID-19-related net admissions (i.e. new patients admitted less patients discharged) to hospitals in Poland. The extent to which health service is overwhelmed should a critical determinant of a potential hard lockdown.

Wednesday, 24 March 2021
After nearly 600 new deaths are reported (which is the highest number since 16 December 2020) the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 crosses 50,000 in Poland. Sadly, we are bound to hit 100,000 deaths, quite probably in late May 2021. I also fear we will see four-digit number of deaths, in the second half of April 2021.

Thursday, 25 March 2021
More than 34,000 new infections make bad news. More than 100,000 test carried out per day (six-digit number reached for the first time) makes good news.
New restrictions are announced, however the lockdown remains soft.
In Mazowieckie province 477 out of 491 ventilators are occupied. Time to begin to be afraid.

Friday, 26 March 2021
Poland sets another high-water mark, with over 35,000 new infections. District Szamotuły in Wielkopolskie province beats the horrible record of local hotbeds, with 1 in 306 inhabitants tested positive yesterday.

Saturday, 27 March 2021
New restrictions come into force. Can anybody explain me why Leroy Merlin, OBI and Castorama are closed, while PSB Mrówka, Bricomarche and Jula remain open? Can anybody explain why dance schools run traditional classes in poorly ventilated indoor spaces with dance partners swapped several times during each class? I am holding out for some logic!

Sunday, 28 March 2021
Mazowieckie province reports 496 out 494 available ventilators are occupied. This is a reporting glitch, but shows how tragic the situation is. There are reserves of ventilators, but kept for patients requiring other forms of treatment. I sadly bet the number of excess deaths in April 2021 will surpass morbid November 2020 when 97% more people died in comparison to the average number of deceases in previous years.

Monday, 29 March 2021
My employer sends out a note in which it “celebrates” the 1,000th case of COVID-19 in the bank whose headcount is around 10,500. It means that fellow workmates are infected more frequently than the population of Poland as a whole, but no fatalities were reported.

Tuesday, 30 March 2021
More than 30,000 hospitalisations, more than 3,000 patients aided by ventilators in breathing. How long before it all falls apart and how many people will pass away prematurely?

Wednesday, 31 March 2021
I note home office, obligatory in several countries in Western Europe is not as prevalent in Poland as it should be. Workplaces are where the virus spreads most frequently. The government appeals to employers to let their staff work from home, but it goes in vain. Moreover I see work in many places is being paralysed by clusters of virus if the entire team is down with the virus. Many managers in Poland are selfish idiots who have failed the exam in operational risk management. But much worse is that they care little about health or their staff and their families.

Thursday, 1 April 2021
I slept restlessly. Woke up at half past five, grabbed my phone, opened Twitter, learnt the registration for vaccination for younger people had been unexpectedly opened. And it was not the April Fool’s Day joke!
Rushed to the computer, signed in, found no referral, looked up in the article I was too young to be eligible for the vaccine so soon. Called several of my 40+ friends to let them know. Nearly all of them have signed up.
Hours later the registration opening has turned out to be a hoax, a mistake, whatever. All arrangements made by 40+ but not 50+ patients have been called off.
The vaccination programme is by all accounts not overseen properly and in terms of pace of administering jabs Poland is no longer among the best in the EU, but somewhere in the middle. Nevertheless I have been filled with hope to receive my first before the end of June.

Friday, 2 April 2021
All of a sudden, 13% decline in new infections week-on-week. Curious about the reasons behind the trend reversal. Imminent Easter? Reporting or IT system failures (yesterday attempts to register for vaccinations have brought the entire health care IT infrastructure to its knees)? Or have the restrictions, especially school and nursery closures, helped?

Saturday, 3 April 2021
After 13-day self-isolation, getting ready to play host to my parents. They are now 24 days after the first dose, yet the peril should not be shrugged off. Judging the number of cars parked outside, many people have decided attend family gathering, but I presume few have taken precautions like me.