Sunday, 26 September 2021

Electric cars – a future of motoring?

Experts in green transport convince us we have no choice, but to switch to electric vehicles, if we are to hold up the global warming and save the planet. The transition is to be long-lasting and carried out in stages, but ultimately, between 2030 and 2050 many European countries are bound to ban sales of brand-new cars with traditional combustion engines. Before the strict prohibitions come into effect, milder measures will be taken, particularly traditional vehicles will be forbidden entry to central areas in bigger cities. In the transitional period, hybrid cars are gaining popularity. They prove economical in town, but do not perform well in terms of fuel consumption in motorway driving, even at moderate speeds. Nevertheless, they help their drivers feel less guilty.

To make it clear, I do not dare to call into question the necessity to drastically reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. We should go to any length to protect the planet if our children and grandchildren are to inhabit it. I only wonder, whether electric motoring is definitely the best option.

Electric buses running around town and charged at terminuses or in depots – I am all in. But electric (only) passenger cars? Potential buyers see several drawbacks of such vehicles.

The first aspect which puts many people off is the price – such cars generally cost twice as much as their counterparts with traditional engines. Given savings per 1 kilometre and decreased cost of maintenance, the payoff distance is between 100,000 and 200,000 kilometres. The only way to get around this is to have governments subsidising purchases of electric vehicles and thus redistributing wealth.

The second discouraging factor is the inconvenience. Range of the best-performing electric vehicles reaches these days around 400 kilometres and such distance is only theoretical, i.e. achievable in ideal conditions – driving at steady speed, on a flat road, with windows closed, aircon off, etc. Charging infrastructure is still way too meagre to facilitate charging of several vehicles. On top, charging up batteries takes much more time than filling up the car. These factors make longer journeys inconvenient. In fact an electric car is good for driving around town, while in fact a car is the least desirable way of moving about in a city and should not be promoted.

The electricity mains and installations in most houses lack capacity to facilitate charging many such cars overnight. My father, an electrician, has worked out that if two cars were charged simultaneously in the underground garage of my building, the energy consumption (around 7,500 Watts) will be around 100% allowed for the installation. The third car plugged in would blow fuses. Electric installations in buildings and the entire power grid (which is likely to conk out in the event of a heat wave in Poland) need to be adjusted if cars are to run on electricity.

If we are environment-conscious, we should realise where the electricity in our sockets comes from. As long as Poland burns coal in power plants, electric cars still contaminate air, but at power plant chimneys, not at exhaust pipes. In Norway they make more sense.

Besides, a motor vehicle does damage to the environment only in 60% between the moment it leaves a dealer’s showroom and its last trip to a scrapyard. Manufacturing and recycling account for approximately 20% of carbon footprint each. Therefore if a carmaker prompts you to buy a new hybrid or electric SUV to save the planet, do not do it. You should rather look after your current car (provided it is a small and relatively modern petrol-fuelled one), drive it as rarely as possible and keep it going in good condition as long as possible.

We have to face a bitter truth. A car will become again a luxury good on account of its detrimental impact on the environment. Electric cars are not a perfect solution. The solution is to drive less, avoid short journeys and traffic jams, drive economically, choose to go by bicycle or by public transport around town. And not to deceive ourselves.

Sunday, 12 September 2021

Cold, cold year?

Summer of 2021 will go down as the warmest since records began, but in Poland it was just slightly warmer than long-term average. Although June (thanks to its hot second half) and July were markedly warmer even in comparison to 1991-2020 reference period, August tilted the balance of the entire summer towards just “a bit warm” category.

With temperature averaging out +17.2C it was the coldest August in Warsaw since 2005 (+17.7C then) and the third-coldest in my lifetime, after August 1998 (mean temperature: +16.4C) and August 1993 (+16.6C). My parents remember six Augusts between 1976 and 1981 when average temperatures in Warsaw were ranging from +15.8C to +16.8C. In recent August there was no spell of exceptional cold (month-time low of +7.3C, while on average the lowest temperature in August is +7.8C), but on 12 days temperature did not top above +20C. Rainfall was also in abundance – monthly precipitation reached 166 millimetres, vs. long-term average of 61 millimetres (and was short of post-WW2 record by 13 millimetres).

September has been partly making up for the cold August, offering plenty of sunshine and day-time highs of +25C recently. Forecasters say the coming week should bring clement weather with temperatures peaking just below +20C. Preliminary forecasts for next months suggest October should bring above-average temperatures and Indian summer, while November is to be warm, but wet.

I wonder whether 2021 will be the first “cold” year since 2010. Until now, the year-to-date negative temperature deviation in Warsaw stands at some - 0.3 Celsius degree. If the trend continues, 2021 stands a chance to be the coldest since than 2010 (mean: +7.9C). So far four months (February, April, May, August) brought below-average temperatures. More than four months with below-average mean temperature in Warsaw were reported during my lifetime in 2003, 1996, 1991 and 1991. Everything depends now on the weather in the fourth quarter. But do not date to confuse weather for the climate. Just like one swallow does not make a summer, one colder year in just one part of the globe does not deny the continuing global warming.

Next post in two weeks (off for a wedding next weekend, hoping not to catch the Delta).

Sunday, 5 September 2021

Pandemic diary – August 2021 notes

Tuesday, 3 August 2021
4 million deaths officially reported worldwide. Had it been 40 million, few would have cared anyway.

Sunday, 8 August 2021
500,000 coronavirus tests per 1,000,000 citizens have been conducted in Poland, the lowest number in the EU, 15% lower than Bulgaria which is the runner-up in this nefarious ranking.

Thursday, 12 August 2021
In Greece the number of new inflection (7-day average) is the highest since the onset of the pandemic (or testing has become more widespread).

Saturday, 14 August 2021
In several European countries attacked by the delta variant, the wave seems to be over. Look at the new infection numbers in the Netherlands, Portgual, Malta, Spain. Hope the trend is sustainable.

Monday, 16 August 2021
Delta wave hits its high in France, with over 23,000 (7-day average) new confirmed infections.

Monday, 23 August 2021
The Federal Drug Agency issues an unconditional approval for the Pfizer vaccine. Looking forward to the same step being taken by the EMA.

Wednesday, 25 August 2021
50% of Poland’s population have received at least one dose of a vaccine (in my calculation I assume the population of my country is 38,160,000, therefore I declare it 4 days later than other observers do).

Friday, 27 August 2021
New inflections reach their peak in Italy. Hope they do not increase considerably, since we have booked flight to Rome in early October.

Saturday, 28 August 2021
Podkowa Leśna is the first gmina in Poland, where more than two-third of residents (including children less than 12) have been fully vaccinated. Thumbs up, hats down!

Tuesday, 31 August 2021
And a customary month-end report, of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups


2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland