Pandemic diary – weeks 95 & 96

Monday, 3 January 2022
Everything seems to indicate deaths peaked in Poland yesterday, with 7-day average topping out at 466. Ghastly.

Tuesday, 4 January 2022
75% of Warsaw’s residents received at least one dose of a vaccine. Figures are boosted by the recently launched campaign of jabbing children aged 5 – 11. In Ustronie Morskie 75% of residents are fully vaccinated.
In Greece 1 in 206 citizens tested positive.
More than 2 million new cases reported worldwide, therein more than 1 million in the US, the UK and France only. Deaths keep falling so far.

Wednesday, 5 January 2022
Poland’s president, with track record of infection (October 2020), double vaccination (April / May 2021) and a booster (December 2021) is tested positive. I am not fond of conspiracy theories, but would not be shocked if his vaccination certificate was fake. He dislikes needles around his arm, besides he has track record of declarations of being sceptical towards vaccinations.
Konfederacja, a Polish far-right corona-sceptical party has its profile removed from Facebook for spread misinformation on vaccines. The move sparks a debate on limits to freedom of speech.
In France 1 in 197 citizens tested positive.
The United Kingdom hits its high of new infections with 7-day average topping out at 182,069.

Thursday, 6 January 2022
Frankly speaking, I feel the same sense of uncertainty as exactly 22 months ago, in early March 2020. Relying on maths, I expect a disaster when omicron takes over unconstrained in Poland. Too many will pay the ultimate price.
300,000,000 officially reported cases worldwide. I believe the 400,000,000 threshold will be crossed on… 12 February 2022. Let’s see!

Friday, 7 January 2022
There are provinces in Poland such as Mazowieckie and Małopolskie where infections visibly rise week-on-week. Even despite scant testing on bank holiday yesterday.

Saturday, 8 January 2022
In Ireland 1 in 192 citizens tested positive.
Records are getting harder to beat, but once the New Year’s tide ends, schools and businesses resume full-scale operations, in some countries new infections will break out.

Sunday, 9 January 2022
In Warsaw new infections rise by 66% week-on-week, in Kraków by 122%. You may partly put it down to scarce testing on New Year’s Day (i.e. base effect), but the two cities are becoming the first hotbeds of Omicron, which will soon spill over the entire country.

Monday, 10 January 2022
R(t), the reproduction number, inclines in Poland above 1.00, which means the pandemic is taking over again, for good.

Tuesday, 11 January 2022
100,000 deaths from COVID-19 miles a sad milestone of the pandemic. Yet the better measure of the epidemic’s death toll is a number of excess deaths which by now has reached around 170,000.
In France 1 in 178 citizens tested positive.

Wednesday, 12 January 2022
More than 3 million new cases worldwide (3.2 million to be precise), with the United States, India, France, Spain and Italy making up a half of the statistics.
In Poland new infections decline by 2% week-on-week, which is positively startling. Yet the frequency of social interactions was low by 9 January, since schools were closed by then and many people took days off.

Thursday, 13 January 2022
In Australia 1 in 172 citizens tested positive.

Friday, 14 January 2022
In Israel 1 in 157 citizens tested positive.
In Poland 13 out of 17 members of the Medical Council (board of voluntary advisors to the government) submit their resignations. They have had enough of government’s indifference to their counselling and succumbing to anti-vaxxers.

Saturday, 15 January 2022
Poland has been faring better than foreseen by the prophets of doom. New infections (7-day average) rose by merely 28% within a fortnight, while there were countries where the figure saw a 1,000% increase. Nevertheless, it is not the right time for complacency. Calm days will soon be over.