The coldest winter since decades ahead?

The post title should not mislead you – I am not daring to publish a long-term weather forecast. Such competencies remain beyond my capacity and given my more pessimistic than optimistic look at the life, may they stay so.

While in recent years warm winter seasons, a clear hallmark of the global warming, filled us with dread and uncertainty, many hope the 2022/23 winter in Europe turns out balmy. The worries are spurred by cut off supply of natural gas from Russia which is used to heat dwellings in most European countries. The gas has not flown into several countries for weeks, however in the warmer season, when it is used in cookers, ovens, water heating and for industrial purposes, reserves remain sufficient for a while. But as soon as the autumn draws in, the demand for gas will bump up, displaying clear negative correlation with air temperatures.

Governments of several countries, including the Polish one, warn between the lines we ought to brace for shortages of energy inputs and some forms of rationing out. Experts advise to recommend lower interior temperatures in dwellings, offices and public buildings. A prospect of having temperature capped at +18C or +19C in your house or flat looms very probable, yet is not a tragedy. I prefer to put on woollen socks and a sweater rather than make any concessions to Putler.

The scenario of shivering inside dwellings is an optimistic one. In the pessimistic course of events, deficits of natural gas would be large enough to limit deliveries to industrial off-takers. In such scenario sharply decreased supply of several industrial goods would send inflation even higher, while production stoppages or shutdowns would lead to payment gridlocks. Problems would spill over across the entire economy.

Since the end of WW2 the European societies have never experienced austerity. Currently with energy crisis on all fronts, an advent of war-time-like austerity is genuinely likely. I fear this might cause social unrest, which in turn would prompt politicians to look for a diplomatic solution which would resume gas deliveries from Russia. This must not happen, you surely realise why.

Admittedly, the price to pay for sanctions imposed on Russia is high, yet necessary. It was naïve to hope Russia would not take any retaliatory steps. The uncivilised nation under Putler’s heel, fooled by turgid propaganda, would make a lot of sacrifices to rebuild the empire and to restore the sense of national pride.

Besides, we need to remember that Putler, currently cut off the flow of technology and luxury goods, is well on track to bring the Russian economy back to where it was just before the Soviet Union collapsed. The dictator is intent to step up in his pursuit of the great Russian empire. Reportedly, the Russian economy is shifting into the war mode, meaning men left jobless as a result of economic downturn would become conscripts, while factories will begin to manufacture armaments, to make up for the losses from recent months.

Bleak times lie ahead. I hope western politicians realise no concessions must be made to Putler and that NATO unity, if put to the test, must be fiercely and firmly defended.