Post-election fears

The final outcome of the election was actually above expectations, yet still below some hopes. Formally, PiS won the plebiscite, but effectively by getting 3.96 million fewer votes than 3 committees of the democratic opposition, it lost 41 seats in the lower house in the parliament in comparison to their result after the election in 2019. With 194 out of 460 seats, PiS now stands no chance to wield power, as the united opposition has 248 deputies in total.

For the time being PiSites intend to step down democratically, but with one attempt to call the government by the party which won the election, the moment Tusk and company take charge of Poland will likely be put back by a few weeks, probably until pre-Christmas days. Although voters of the outgoing ruling party are livid, there no serious intention to dispute the election results as Donald Trump's supporters breaking into Capitol building on 6 January 2021 did.

Over the past 8 years, we had Zjednoczona Prawica (formally a coalition of three parties which won the elections as one committee) in power stand-alone, not needing alliance with any other party to keep the majority. Soon we will have a government made up of three committees, from seven political groupings. Their common denominator is commitment to liberal democracy, rule of law and pro-European stance. Their agendas vary in several social and economic issues. Forming a long-lasting ruling coalition will involve a lot of compromising.

The new government will be in a difficult position finance-wise. Spending spree was in overdrive and people have got accustomed to being given gifts (financed from taxes they pay). Confronted with a prospect of a mammoth budget deficit in 2024 they will face uneasy decisions whether to extend some programmes (espiecially anti-inflation shield).

I basically don't expect much from the new government. I have merely four basic wishes to those I have given a mandate to run my country.

Firstly, run public finances prudently and long-sightedly.

Secondly, reinstate law and order in public institutions mangled by PiS, but do so without violating the law.

Thirdly, call people responsible for wrongdoing to account. So much evil has been done in last 8 years, so those guilty of it must not escape punishment. When doing so, act within the boundaries of law and avoid a revenge.

Fourthly, restore good relationships with our partners in the EU and unlock the flow of money from the National Recovery Plan. Poland badly needs it.

I realise knocking PiS out of power will not solve all problems instantly. It is just a beginning of a long walk towards a recovery.

I fear the nascent coalition will be fragile, not only due to divergent agendas of particular groupings, but also because personal ambitions of specific politicians.

The coming months will put political maturity of the democratic opposition's leaders to the test. Poland has been freed up from the hands of the quasi-authoritarian regimes. Poles have pinned hopes in them and they must not waste it by not seeing further than ends of their noses.

The reshuffle in the parliament has not coincided with a presidential election. Andrzej Duda's tenure ends in August 2025, but by that time he might be a stumbling block for attempts to reverse the harms done by PiS. The opposition, even with Konfederosja, is short of 60% tally required to reject a presidential veto.

I am keeping fingers crossed for the newly elected parliamentary majority, but will be reviewing them critically if they deserve.

Italy, Campania, late summer

Back in Poland (since two weeks) from my fourth trip to Italy in my life (I visited the country in September 2017, October 2021, August / September 2022), this time spent with my girlfriend, her friends and their son. This was my first holiday foray longer than 10 days since spending nearly a fortnight in a sanatory in June 2019, however given what has been going on at work, the all-out logout was exactly what I needed.

For the first time in my life I flew somewhere from Modlin. Getting there and out of there is a nuisance, yet I at least departures and arrivals are more likely to be on time (no queues of aircrafts) and the luggage claim is reasonably quick. But next time I will think twice before saving on a distant airport (in this case opting for Modlin reduced the cost of the holidays by nearly PLN 1,000 per person).

Weather-wise, last week of September and first week of October is a perfect time for visiting the Italian province with capital in Naples. Just like in most parts of Europe, temperature in Italy wasabove long-term averages, hence we enjoyed over +25C in afternoons (up to +30C with staggeringly high air humidity), but evenings and nights gave relief from the heat. The sea temperature was around +24C, so swimming was in order on most days.

Our holiday mode was to spend one day sightseeing and then one day on a beach or wandering around. We stayed at Nerano, a relatively quite coastal village, not far from most attractions of the legendary Amalfi coast.

To the right - a view on beaches in Sorrento. Note the cliffs, the Italian architecture and azure skies. The venue has its charm, but you also need to have stamina to walk up and down.

The coast of Campania is rocky and altitude rises quickly as you move away from the sea. The view from the town of Ravello into another town Minori is a breathtaking illustration thereof.

The crater snapped is the inside the dormant Vesuvio. As long as the volcano does not wake up, it is open for tourists. Was definitely worthing climbing up there to see for the first time in my life a piece of nature which nearly 2,000 years ago sent doom on the nearby town of Pompei...

... the ruins of which are also a fascinating piece of heritage. The hot lava has presered well the brick walls, so most structure (except for roofs) survived the eruption and having not been destroyed thereafter, bear testimony to the disaster. Note the volcano in the background.

If you once visit the area, you will definitely want to take a ferry trip to Capri. Do so just not to regret, but keep in mind the posh island is overrated and infuriatingly crowded. Still, some sights are truly enchanting.

From Nerano, we could walk to a nearby town of Termini to watch the sun go down into the Tirrenian sea. The price to pay for such view was the ascent of one mile with slope above 10% (200 metres different in altitude). The island behind the satellite dish is Capri.

If you want to pop over to towns on Amalfi coast, do not think of reaching them by car. A boat is much more practical and offers splendid views of coastal areas. The price for a day-long trip was a reasonable EUR 50 per passenger. To town on the picture is Amalfi (overcrowded and expensive).

The other, much prettier town on the coast of Campania is Positano, also too popular with tourists and horrifcally expensive, but if you are fit enough to roam around the hilly area, eye-pleasing views will compensate your for sweating uphill.

When selecting one shot from Naples I deliberately picked the one taken outside the tourist area, but still less than two miles from the very centre. The photo could have been taken in a post-soviet town and only the lack of Lada cars parked outside hints the shot comes from a civilised world.

Now time for some hints for travellers...

Moving around Campania is most effective by car (buses run very rarely, railway tracks cannot be even built cheaply in such hilly areas), which takes a bit if a skill. Roads are narrow, winding at times steep and locals drive like lunatics. Ensure you buy a full insurance, since risk of returning a car with a scrape is material.

Those fond of eating will take delight in local cuisine. I am far from being a foodie, yet recommend going to local eateries or bars, being on the market for decades, if you want a tasty and decently priced meal.

Large differences in altitude mean you need to be quite healthy and fit to walk a lot there, but those forced to lead sedentary lifestyle, yet longing for exercising, will appreciate the undulating Campanian landscapes.

The area I holiday in has its charm and I would recommend it to be visited, yet... I would not come back, as there are definitely many more interesing places to be discovered.

The Polish parliamentary election in 2023

I hardly can believe this has all happened.

The campaign by the end of September was drab and lacklustre. PiS was bound to win, yet not to reap the majority of seats in the lower house. Five parties or less were about to cross the score threshold, with Trzecia Droga being the most likely to drop off.

On 1 October hundreds of thousands (or over a million) people marched through the streets of Warsaw, rallying to show a middle finger to the ruling party. From that day the campaign grew apace. Petrol stations were running out of underpriced fuel suddenly became a symbol of how PiS wanted to buy off voters. I presume the march and the fuel crisis have taken a bit off wind of the ruling party’s sails. In polls PiS scored some 5 percentage points more than Koalicja Obywatelska being the main grouping in the opposition.

The only country-wide debate in this campaign was hosted by the government-controlled propagandist television. Both the current prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki and opposition’s leader Donald Tusk did not fare well during the squabble, but the ultimate winner of the debate turned out to be Szymon Hołownia, a co-leader Trzecia Droga. With his superb performance he at least secured a score well in excess of 8% (being a parliament entry threshold for coalitions).

The days in the run-up to the election were quite eventful. All in all we observed a scaremongering campaign of two main parties trying to defame one another, rather than present their agenda for the coming years.

The last polls before the election-time silence indicated PiS would win the vote, however even with Konfederosja they would not secure majority in the lower house of the parliament.

A few weeks ago I planned to vote somewhere in provincial Poland. Having read of voting tourism being a form of gambling, I ditched the idea and eventually cast my ballot in the local polling station.

In the afternoon, an X (formerly Twitter) screening mode went on. Leaking exit polls results indicated PiS was to win the election, some 4 – 5 percentage points ahead of KO. The proportion remained unchanged until polling stations were being closed (or queues outside them cut off).

Waiting for the story to unfold. Due to record-high turnout of 72.9% the actual results might deviate from the exit polls, but the winner and the runner-up are unlikely to swap their position. The major question mark is the score of Konfederosja, in the exit poll at mere 6.2%, well below forecasts. My calculations shows even if the right-wing wackos drop off, PiS will still be some 20 seats short of majority.

I would not rule out an early election in a few months…