Pre-election gloom

As the end of the current parliament term draws near, I realise Poles have endured nearly 8 years of PiS in power. I also realise the period covers almost a half of my formal adulthood. As they were winning the election in October 2015, I was 27, single, rank-and-file analyst and still lived with my parents in Nowa Iwiczna. As of now I am in the third serious relationship since then, after two promotions, residing in my own flat in Ursynów – basically except for being 8 years older, I seem better off. A pity in many realms Poland is worse off or made steps back in development.

In early years of PiS in power people would take to the streets in masses to stand up for democratic principles. With time, as the marches did not undermine the unfettered authority of the ruling party, the intensity of street demonstrations faded. There were some spurts, as the protest against rigorous pro-life law changes in October 2020, a stay-in-the-EU march in October 2021 – which I both attended. This year I did not take part in the opposition’s march on 4 June (I was in Wisła) and on account of holidaying in Italy I will not join the crowds on the streets of Warsaw on 1 October, two weeks before the election.

Fatigue is a natural form of adjustment to how my country is being slowly demolished. Just like with any disruptive situation – the first reaction is a shock (recall the examples of COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 or the invasion to Ukraine in February 2022) then the public get accustomed to what is going on, event if this involves hundreds of deaths daily. PiS in power does not kill humans, but in most Poles it eradicated the hope that the country might be run in a better way.

The current polls indicate PiS is going to win the election, but very few surveys give the party a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament. The three parties of the democratic opposition, provided they all (hopefully) pass the parliament entry threshold, are also unlikely to get the majority. This means Konfederacja, the far-right-wind freak grouping currently rising to become the third player in the Polish politics, will be in a position to tip the scales during the key votes in the parliament. As Konfederosja declares to be an anti-systemic creature, it currently does not intend to enter a coalition with anyone, which looms a post-election stand-off and a possibility of next parliamentary election called in early 2024.

This year the election will be accompanied by a ludicrous referendum, which actually will be a barometer of support to the current government. As the opposition urges its electorate to boycott the plebiscite by refusing the to take the referendum card (otherwise a voter boosts turnout), the vote will effectively not be confidential. Since 50% turnout will not be achieved, I advise if opposition’s voters fear reactions of the communities in provincial polling stations, they should take the referendum cards – to cast a vote in line with one’s conscience is more important that boycotting the plebiscite.

The election will also not be equal. Numbers of lower house deputies elected from specific constituencies has not been revised since 2011. Over that time the number of voters in cities increased, so they are under-represented in the lower house, while in provincial Poland – decreased. This might mean a few more seats for PiS, much more popular far from big cities. The fix for it for a voters from Warsaw will be to pick up a certificate entitling to vote anywhere in Poland, not just in your local polling station. So on 15 October quite probably I will not be proudly boosting the turnout in Ursynów, but will venture to a place where my vote will have a bigger weight than I Warsaw.

Those more involved might become scrutineers, overseeing the voting and vote counting in polling stations.

The campaign is going to kick off for good after this weekend, with the end of school holidays. I fear it will be predictable, lacklustre and full of below-the-belt blows dealt by the ruling party. I suppose the outcome might be impacted by an event on the home straight, less than a week before the vote. I also keep fingers crossed for bad weather. In provincial Poland fewer people might take the trouble to go to polling stations, while inhabitants of big cities will not venture beyond town to make use of the last gasps of late summer and will not risk skipping their civic duty.