Sunday, 28 September 2025

The latest heat in Warsaw ever

As I am a weather and climate statistics freak, knowing nearly by heart the history of weather records in Warsaw and having written 14 winter timelines here, each weather event which modifies weather stats for Warsaw should not pass unnoticed on PES.

With a delay, I note the maximum temperature record for July was broken on 3 July 2025, when temperature peaked at +36.5C, beating the reading of +35.9C dated 31 July 1994.

Last Sunday, on 21 September 2025 day-time high in Warsaw reached +30.8C. It was the first incidence of heat (defined as maximum temperature in excess of +30C) in the third decade of September ever. Moreover, the latest heat record, until last Sunday set on 14 September 1951 was broken by 7 days. Those are stats for Warsaw stand-alone. Country-wide, the latest incidence of heat was reported on 27 September 2012 (Jarczew, +30.8C, in most Polish cities temperature on that day reached above +26C).

The record Warsaw will be difficult to be beaten quickly, as such inflows of hot air are infrequent (we had it on 1 January 2023 when temperature peaked at +18.9C). Lucky us, it haunted us in the second half of September, not in mid-July as in high summer temperature would be likely to get close to +40C.

A matter of short time will probably be a first incidence of heat in October in Poland. So far the record is +29.3C measured on 3 October 2023 in Legnica.

Warmth spells in months other than summer ones are welcome, but they are a part of a broader picture whose element is a drought ongoing for a decade. Deficiency of rainfall has lasted two months now and forecasts for October, full of sunshine and no consensus about above-average temperatures, give little hope for making up for it.

Sunday, 21 September 2025

Antidepressants gone

The episode of depression which smashed me in mid-2022 was the most serious one, yet thanks to swift reaction consisting of proper combination of medications and a wonderful therapist, my head was back above water a few weeks later. My first attempt to controllably give up on pills taken up preventively, taken under psychiatrist’s control in spring 2024 was failed. My dose need to be increased, though not much, but it seemed at that time essential to keep me afloat.

Next months were not a bed of roses. The health crisis and the relationship break-up were likely to bring me down. They did not, but in line with my doctor’s advice I waited out some time after seeing the back of personal setbacks to get ready to do without medications. After over three years of feeding my brain with happiness pills, I took the last one on 29 August 2025.

In terms of mental health or mood, all has been fine until now and hope it stays so. In terms my body’s reaction, the picture is not rose-coloured. I had realised side effects of antidepressants withdrawal would hit me, last a few days and go away. In the first pill-free days I felt dizzy, my tolerance to heat decreased, was weaker, but endured physical exercise well. Then, instead of waning, what I believe are the withdrawal symptoms, have intensified at the beginning of this week.

The long list of nasty afflictions (tested myself several times for COVID-19 and flu, negative) as of now includes:
- aching muscles, joints, bones, or just the entire body, regardless of physical exercise or its lack,
- itchy skin,
- feeling of dryness in mouth, thirstiness,
- sore lymph nodes, with the pain radiating towards ears,
- nasal discharge flowing to throat and clogging it,
- feeling a load on my chest and dry cough,
- once I had a fever – temperature soared within 1 hour to +39C, then plummeted to +36.6C within an hour too,
- feeling that my body cannot give off heat and intense sweating (+15C outside, in a T-shirt I still was sweating),
- at times the opposite – shivers despite high temperature,
- a bloated, aching stomach, despite cutting down on eating, giving up on snacks altogether and defecating twice a day.

As it cannot be taken for granted those are heavy and prolonged withdrawal side effects, I need to go through a couple of examinations, to rule out other diseases, including cancer…

Even though abandoning the pills is bearing a brunt on me, I do not regret it. My brain had by all means got addicted to them and needs some time to learn to function properly without pharmacological aids. I also still believe taking antidepressants was the right decision. Given my depression has relapsed several times, its bleak comeback is most likely a matter of time. But by the time it happens, I will not contaminate my brain with medicines.

I am strongly convinced personality matters much in overcoming depression. By character, I am not a kind of person who likes to lie in bed or sit idle, I am not the one who procrastinates, I am the one who needs to be in motion, who moves ahead, does things. I strive to reach a proper balance between venting anger and frustration and keeping up optimism. Believe it or not, it helps a lot.

Written for posterity.

Sunday, 14 September 2025

AI rocks the boat?

When I was child, an omni-scient all-rounder used to dubbed a "walking encyclopaedia" (literally chodząca encyklopedia). Those humans who seem to have known an answer to every question embodied a desire to possess all the knowledge in the world. A quarter of century later this dream has come true in a way few had envisaged.

I have used the most popular AI tool, ChatGPT for a while. I use it out of curiosity, ask it uncanny questions, check if it can solve manifold problems. Despite its advanced age of two and a half years, it still has deficiencies, gets it wrong several times in a row, in spite of being prompted to mend its ways, acts as an outright liar or fails to substantiate the outcomes of its work.

Many point up its capacity as a therapist. I can confess to have tried it out, at times bounced quandaries off it. Its counselling is not mould-breaking and it still does not beat a bright therapist. Interactions with it remain still inferior to frank conversations with friends.

Some men (far more often than women) ask AI to aid them in online dating. I have also checked out how this works and here ChatGPT sounds like a typical boomer whose advice I wouldn't follow. With respect to romantic relationships, unless you are inexperienced or your emotional intelligence is well below average, I suggest AI does not offer dating counselling.

More and more frequently AI is used in situations when humans were told to use their brains. Falling back on AI dumbs people down. Intense thinking activates several parts of our brains, while relying on AI renders them idle. Over time humans might become helpless and prone to accelerated mental ageing.

Just like each invention, AI might be harnessed to pursue evil goals. You must be mindful of trolls farms on which people were paid for spreading disinformation and stirring things up. With AI in place, cost of producing fake content has dramatically decreased. As of now, what AI produces is easy to recognise (although the three-legged Marcon bait was swallowed by Polish right-wing journalists), but with time differences will fade. Touching on fake content, the percentage of people who take it in, without verifying, is disturbing, if not alarming. Needless to say right-wing voters and more likely to be manipulated in such way.

For months I have been hearing AI would take away most office jobs. AI tools keep developing fast, yet they are still far from the moment they threaten my current position. Just like in times of industrial revolution, machines have not rendered factory workers jobless, AI is unlikely to cause massive lay-offs. AI might to some extent take over mundane and repeatable tasks, but somebody will still need to oversee it, verify outcomes of its work and rectify errors made by AI.

If the exchange of goods and services is to continue, there must be a balance between supply and demand. Otherwise markets stall. In case AI replaces masses of white-collar workers and corporations realise their jobs are useless, the ultimate demand (for end products) will crash and thus the entire economy will go bust. An alternative scenario is that jobs of millions of people are redefined.

Some people have embraced AI excessively. At some point realising how much harm it can do and how many flaws it has will hopefully prompt humanity to take a step back with AI development, in order to make a few more prudent steps forward.

In the long run I see two conceivable scenarios: either most likely AI settles in a broad niche, facilitating our lives and jobs, with everyone keeping in mind humans remain superior to AI, or in a far less probable scenario AI grows uncontrollably, outwits humans, takes control over us and destroys our civilisation. Averting such scenario, whose probability is estimated by AI gurus at roughly 15%, lies in our hands only.

Sunday, 7 September 2025

Climate-friendly buildings

Summer 2025 by many has been perceived as cool and wet. Sadly, when such observations were shared in public, they fuelled claims global warming is a hoax, despite numerous figures giving lie to flat-earth believers and other wackos. In fact, in Warsaw this summer was thermally normal and dry (benchmark period: 1991 – 2020).

June 2025 with mean temperature of +18.5C and total precipitation of 47.7 millimetres was slightly warmer and drier than long-term average (respectively: +17.7C and 63.9 millimetres).

July 2025 with mean temperature of ++20.0C and total precipitation of 53.8 millimetres was normal and markedly drier than long-term average (respectively: +19.7C and 82.2 millimetres).

August 2025 with mean temperature of +19.3C and total precipitation of 9.2 millimetres was slightly warmer and extremely dry in comparison to long-term average (respectively: +17.7C and 60.6 millimetres).

The first week of September brought temperatures a few degrees above long-term averages and little rainfall. The summer-like weather is foreseen to continue at least for the next two weeks.

The total number of hot days (defined as those with maximum temperature above +30C) has reached 11 so far (the last one on Friday, 5 September) and in line with weather forecasts it stands a little chance to still go up. It is conceivable, as in the past the capital of Poland saw three incidences of heat in second decades of September in Warsaw: 14 September 1951, 11 September 2012 and 13 September 2023. On top we have had so far 8 days with highs between +28C and +30C, which formally do not meet the definition of a "hot day".

Not everyone is fond of such weather. I belong to those whose bodies don't feel well in high summer and hence I have highly appreciated moderate weather, milder than in recent years.

Hot summers in Poland are still colder than what residents of southern Europe had to endure decades ago, when air-conditioning was not widespread. Since central heating was also a missing installation in most dwellings, walls were thick and windows were tiny. Window shutters gave shelter both from the heat and the cold. Roofed terraces did not let sunrays reach windows in when the sun was shining high. The price to pay were dark interiors.

I last recalled how old-style architecture protected from heat, when I entered a several-century old monastery in Święty Krzyż. With +29C and full sunshine outside, the edifice gave great shelter from heat, despite no air-condition inside.

On Friday I strolled around the centre of Warsaw and stared at modern skyscrapers. They all had walls made entirely from glass, with each storey having windows from floor to ceiling. I realise window panes these days need to meet stringent energy efficiency requirements, but glass will never be as energy-efficient as a 40-centimetre-thick brick wall. All those modern buildings can boast of fancy eco-certificates, while their architecture boosts their energy demand. The same applies to modern premium properties, with large windows being a housing equivalent of SUVs in motoring.

No energy is fully green. Generating electricity from solar panels involves carbon footprint 95% lower than from burning black coal, while for wind turbines it is 99% lower. The calculations take into account total life cycle of specific installations (source: ChatGPT).

In the office building where I work, radiators blowing in hot air and air-conditioning blowing in cold air were working at full blast all summer round. No matter how green the energy is, such waste of energy in a building which boasts of being energy-efficient is unacceptable. Same as a defunct fire alarm which has failed to inform of two small fires in the underground garage this year...

Old, energy-inefficient buildings are torn down and new, energy-efficient ones are constructed on the same plots. Has anyone calculated how many years of lower energy usage it takes to make up for carbon footprint in the demolition and subsequent construction? ChatGPT needed 4 minutes to come up with an answer: 30 years for a typical energy-efficient building, 15 years for an ultra-energy-efficient building. I have not verified it, but if it is true, business and money matters much more than actual care for environment. Much better for the planet would be to modernise existing buildings.

No matter how green the electricity that powers air-conditioning is, detrimental effects of prevalent aircon in city centres persist. Masses if hot air are blown outside several buildings and along with excessive concrete areas, exacerbate the urban heat island effect, making living conditions in city centres unbearable, especially for elderly residents.