After the
introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I
have not caught up with commentaries.
The rivalry
remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was
held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary
Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he
departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council
bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal,
predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of
PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.
The debate
hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration
of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.
On Friday
before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and
which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.
The first
figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory
of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared
up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m.
was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.
In late
afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski
(1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth
and seventh score.
Knowing turnout
readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted
late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling
stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand.
The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.
The official
exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long
way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not
far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15%
of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and
seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%,
it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored
close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.
Before the we
face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.
I believe
in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat.
Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!