I am proud
on 24 May 2015 I voted for Mr Komorowski. Although my opinion on his (mediocre)
presidency in the last months before his electoral defeat was not particularly
high, with hindsight I have no doubt casting a vote for him was the best I
could do then. Had Mr Komorowski been re-elected, he would have been a precious
safety valve, an authentic guard of constitution and stumbling block for
reckless economic decisions passed by PiS-dominated parliament. Today, when
executive and legislative powers are wielded by nominees of one party,
counter-balance can be struck only by judiciary power (attempted to be
undermined,)and by private media (public one will soon be brought to a heel by
PiS)…
I was not
fond of the late president, Mr Kaczyński. We were worlds apart, his views of
Poland were usually far cry from mine, yet he had principles he would abide by.
Honestly admitting, I did not like him, but respected him as a head of state.
When Mr Duda was taking the office, I wished him well. After he reprieved Mr
Kamiński (in advance, since the court has not passed a legally binding
sentence) and nominated five judges of constitutional tribunal elected by PiS,
before it was been ruled three of them had been elected by PO-PSL government in
line with constitutional order, I have lost respect for Mr Duda, who is more
dependent on Jarosław Kaczyński than Lech Kaczyński was. Servile president is
not a good president.
I am proud
on 25 October 2015 I voted for Nowoczesna. PO, the most numerous oppositional
party is, predictably, falling apart, picking up the pieces after the electoral
calamity and struggling to find a new leader, while Nowoczesna stands out in
terms of standing up to the mess PiS government and deputies are making.
Nowoczesna has emerged as the only firm and substantive critic of the
government. Thumbs up guys. No wonder in the recent polls Nowoczesna is the
runner-up in terms of support, with 20% of the surveyed declaring to support
them. In the meantime support for PiS dropped to 32% and for PO to 19%. For
both parties this is a well-deserved outflow of voters…
Within the
first weeks of holding the entire power, hollowness of economic agenda of PiS
is slowly coming to the light. Out of the blue, PiS passed a new amendment to
Personal Income Tax Law, levying 70% tax on sky-high severance package of
executives departing from state-owned enterprises. Given the absurdly-high
level of golden parachutes, the initiative is commendable and I would support
it. But the ignorant authors of the law have forgotten that majority of
executive work under managerial contracts, which means they are sole
proprietors hired to run companies and hence are payers of Corporate Income
(flat) Tax. Thus the new tax rate will beyond all doubt to a tiny minority of
executives; those working under managerial contracts will be able leverage on
the loophole to dispute the tax charges. On the other hand, if the government
decreases the CIT rate for small companies to 15%, all the executive will pay
even lower taxes. Here comes a good example how PiS helps the poorest!
The 500+
programme, the flagship project of PiS to give 500 PLN allowance for every
second and next (and for poorer families also for the first) child, also lays
bare declarations of ready draft laws were lies. Until now it is unclear who
will be eligible for the allowance, whether it will be treated as taxable
income and how many documents parents will need to submit to file for the
allowance. In the meantime, the Labour and Social Policy minister admitted the allowance will make some poor families worse off, since if they receive the
allowance, they will not be eligible for welfare aid. In the meantime, one of
PiS politicians appealed to well-off people not to apply for the allowance,
stating if they did so, it would be ignoble… The chap appeals to the rich not
to take money they will be eligible for. Jaw drops open! Is Mr Karczewski just
incompetent, or is he discrediting himself?
Financial
sector and large-space shop taxes are to be introduced early next year. As for
now, I am holding back from assessing the effects, however I still believe
ruthless banks and retail chains with foreign capital will get the blow, but will
not be hit the worst.
Now I am in
a quandary, weighing up whether it is worse when PiS tampers with economy or with
democracy. With slightly dismantled democracy Poland can still economically
prosper if it not ill-run. With unwise economic agenda Poland might follow the
path of Greece, yet civic liberties will be intact. As an economist, facing the
choice of lesser of two evils, I would sooner let PiS tamper with the democracy
rather than meddle into teh economy.
Having
written all those bitter words, I must not forget to remind there are millions
of Poles who genuinely support PiS in their pursuit of “reinstating law and
order”. If I told the recent events are against the will of the nation, I would
depart from the truth. The government has a (weak, yet any) mandate to pursue
the changes, millions of Poles were waiting for the change which looms bleak
and dangerous for me. We also must remember PiS can boast of the biggest
stalwart electorate, estimated at 30%.
Waiting for
the course of things to unfold, I witness the growing anger at how the
government and the president are making use of power. Plus when it turns out
points of economic agenda either are hollow promises, or do more harm that
good, people who have voted for PiS with hopes for generous spending, will turn
their back on them. The scenario of early elections if most people get fed up
with PiS government is not as likely as in 2007, since now PiS hold an outright
majority in the parliament, but if things go bad enough, people will topple the
government. Nevertheless, because for such scenario to come to a pass, too much
would need to be spoilt and I do not wish bad on Poland, I hope it does not
materialize.
Each month
I will be trying to dedicate one post to PiS in power, times are dreadful, but
interesting…
The
political mess has not brought me down. Clement weather (+10C and sunshine) and
the fact this is the first weekend since the beginning of November I spend
without company computer lift my spirit.
1 comment:
Five weeks in London and this is the best overview of what's really going on in Poland that I've read. And I read The Economist... :-)
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