Polish parliamentary election in 2019 - what to expect?

I recall 27 May 2019 as a dejecting morning. The two-percentage-points victory of PiS over Koalicja Europejska instead of narrowing down broadened to seven percentage points. All cards meant to clinch the victory to the united opposition turned out to be stacked up against it. The ruling partly has won the actual poll before the autumnal parliamentary election, due in less than 3 months.

The defeat has taken the wind out of opposition’s sails. Blamestorming lasted short, yet the big anti-PiS coalition has not survived. Differences in terms of agendas were to big to be reconciled and most probably PO has wished to retreat from turning too far left and pushing some of its conservative electorate towards PiS.

PO, Nowoczesna and some little groupings and organisations will go as one bloc. After years of being stuck in the doldrums, they have finally gotten their acts together and presented an agenda (which is moderately leftist-liberal, therefore takes my fancy) and have realised they should speak about real problems, not substitute ones convenient for PiS and mobilising its fearful voters defending conservative values.

Leftist parties go united as another bloc, which seems natural. SLD, Wiosna and Razem might still have to endure some internal squabbles within the coalition, as Robert Biedroń and Adrian Zandberg are in my humble opinion too narcistic to shape up with the formula of wide coalition, each of them would have ambitions to play the first fiddle. Though they do not get my vote, I keep fingers crossed for them and hope they garners seats in the parliament as the second pro-democratic alliance.

PSL, despite the absence of the leftist activists in the PO-led bloc, has finally decided to set up its own coalition. The party has been undercut in its stronghold, i.e. rural areas by PiS. Besides, it has tainted itself by flirting with Kukiz ’15 which cannot be ranked among pro-democratic groupings. Moreover, there is a flank in PSL, namely Waldemar Pawlak and his henchmen, who lean towards PiS. Given all the recent moves, I cannot say I wish them well, but sadly all votes cast for them might go to waste if they do not cross the 8 percent threshold for parliament entry (assuming they are registered as a coalition).

Is PiS doomed to win? Let’s look at the history…

In early 2005 Donald Tusk had no chances to win the race for presidency, but eventually he failed in the run-off narrowly.

In the same year PO was bound to win the parliamentary election, while PiS was predicted to be the runner-up. The outcome was exactly the other way round.

In 2007 term of the parliament was shortened, since PiS was hoping to get full power. Instead, voters turned down Kaczynski’s vision of Poland.

In 2015 Bronisław Komorowski was an odds-on favourite in the presidential election and… lost it.

But in 2011 the situation was akin to what we have today. The ruling PO was not faring well and citizens had plenty of reasons to reject them. Yet PiS, then in the opposition was weak and lacking a proposal for Poles, therefore PO easily won the election with lukewarm water in the tap and despite several scandals and controversies. I believe today we should seek analogies with how things went in 2011.

These days, given the economic situation (i.e. the reckless spending spree of the current government and imminent slowdown), I believe in the long run the best option for Poland would be a victory of PiS, yet without simple majority in the parliament. PiS has to pay the price for its irresponsible fiscal policies and the bill will likely be issued over the next 4 years. On top, without a simple majority, wielding power will not be a bed of roses and would lead to several rotten give-and-takes that would dissuade some of the voters who have been deluded by PiS.

One thing which is certain is that a lot can change over the next weeks. I fear the worst, but hope for the best.

Saska Kępa

While chatting with a friend, I had to admit, with unhidden shame, I had never (except for in transit) been to Saska Kępa. Last Saturday I drove there to catch up a bit and improve my familiarity with districts of Warsaw on the eastern bank of Vistula (I venture there seldom).

I have parked my car (frequent thunderstorms on 13 July between two of which I took the trip were an excuse not to cycle) on the southern edge of Saska Kępa, far from any trees and close enough not to drive unnecessarily and give myself a decent walk. I firstly passed along ul. Paryska beneath Trasa Łazienkowska. The busy artery has been fenced off with sound barriers and the space beneath adapted as car park (comes in handy in case of hail).

I stroll further up ul. Paryska. The climate brings to mind outer districts of Western Europe’s bigger cities. New developments have been mixed with older ones, dating back to even before WW2. Nice area, maybe exceptional on this side of Vistula, but I know several other picturesque venues in the capital.

Ul. Paryska is famous for several restaurants, specialising in various cuisines, placed one next to other. In the foreground, an oversized SUV. I do not regret parking more than a kilometre from there. Climate of the place has not been spoiled by the noise and fumes from my car’s engine.

Here, a different story, a classic Citroen H Van (had to ask the search engine to find out what car I ran across). The model was manufactured between 1947 and 1981, but my search did not help me estimate which year which marvellously restored vehicle was produced in, yet somebody must have put in a lot of effort and money to bring the car back to such condition.

Yet another restaurant. I must say all eateries were not chock full of visitors. I was after lunch and my goal was not eat out. I do not recall seeing any people who looked like tourists, I believe only locals were hanging around on the lazy Saturday afternoon.

The snap taken from the corner of ul. Irlandzka and ul. Saska. These are not the main streets of Saska Kępa, i.e. ul. Paryska, ul. Francuska and ul. Saska which contribute to the climate of the district, but such narrow streets with well-restored houses and lush gardens. A place akin to Stary Mokotów, also full of older houses and shrouded in greenery.

Looking west at Trasa Łazienkowska. I saw the viaduct several times, but had never been on it before. I caught up. The traffic is sparse due to holiday period. As you note, the thoroughfare has a bus lane which has urged several drivers to change their habits and opt for faster form of transport.

I walk back towards the car wandering around the housing estate built in 1960. The climate of the place, especially the hexagonal cobblestone called trylinka in Polish remind of the ugliness of Wrzeciono. This provokes me to bear in mind over the last year much has changed for the better in life. Time to be appreciate it and be thankful for it.

By car? Whose car?

Time for a follow-up to last week’s post in which I have promised to compare a total cost of owning a car to using someone else’s car. In my analysis I assume whenever possible I use a bike or public transport and stick to four-wheel motoring whenever most convenient. My calculations pertain to my driving habits only and do not factor in any psychological or emotional elements, these are just hard numbers.

1. My driving profile, which will serve a base for comparison.

I drive on average 10,000 kilometres per year, of which:

- 4,000 kilometres are long-distance travels around Poland and abroad, they break down into one fortnight-long trip and four weekend (3 days) trips,

- 3,000 kilometres are mid-distance journeys are Warsaw and in the vicinity, each on average 15 kilometres from home and back, around two times a week,

- 3,000 kilometres are business trips around Poland.

2. Total cost of car ownership

The basic component is depreciation. I could claim my 8-year-old car does not lose value much and thus distort the comparison but I won’t. I assume I buy a brand-new compact car for PLN 80,000, I look after it, the car has no accident and I can sell it after 15 years of good service with 150,000 kilometres on the clock for one-tenth of its original value (in 2016 I sold my Megane II after thirteen years and five months for 15% of my father’s Megane IV price). Since I do not intend to get rid of it after a few years, I don’t care about high market value loss in early years; therefore I make a simplifying assumption that the car depreciates linearly.

After I buy the car, I need to pay fees in local transport and motoring office. PLN 180.50 gets amortised into 15 years.

Over the first 7 years I insure the car against theft, self-caused accident and other damages. I believe the risk is not very high, so I choose an insurance plan with the highest deductibles, which gives me insurance premium of 2% of car’s market value which then gets allocated over 15 years. Depreciation schedule for calculation provided by a leasing company (percent of original value after X years):

- year 1: 77%,

- year 2: 65%,

- year 3: 56%,

- year 4: 48%,

- year 5: 41%,

- year 6: 35%.

Good to realise after six years your car is worth little more than 1/3 of which you have paid for it.

Third-party liability insurance, with my highest 60% discount for accident-free track record of driving. PLN 586 is the exact amount of T-P liability premium paid by me in November 2018.

Just in case in take out also ancillary insurance policies, with the latter being required by my employer. Also the actual prices paid by me 8 months ago.

Annual servicing involves a thorough inspection of the car’s condition, changing oil and filters as well as fixing up minor (cost below PLN 100) malfunctions. PLN 700 is very close to actual price paid by me in April 2019 at Renault Dyszkiewicz.

MOT, in Polish a technical inspection confirming a vehicle’s roadworthiness. Over 15 years it has to be done 12 times (after 3^rd, 5^th and each next year), therefore the expense of PLN 114 is averaged out over 15 years.

A brand-new car comes with one set of summer tyres. To drive 150,000 kilometres in Poland you need two sets of summer tyres and two sets of winter tyres. Three sets of tyres to purchase over a vehicle’s life, each setting you back PLN 800 (of reasonable quality, yet a bargain in low season hunted), allocated over 15 years.

The tyres need to be changed twice a year. I have no-frill tyres, but in vehicles with pressure sensors are change is more expensive. My father was charged PLN 118 in April 2019 for such service.

Odds and ends are insignificant expenses, such as car wash, light bulbs, liquid washer, wiper blades, air fresheners, cosmetics, etc. They add up to PLN 200 per year on average.

Planned (due to wear and tear) and unplanned (breakdowns) maintenance and repairs – the most debatable item. How have I arrived at the amount? I have summed up all my expenditures on my previous car (aged between 8 and 13 while I had it) and current car (aged between 5 and 8 while I have had it) and divided by 8 years of car ownership. I have arrived at PLN 1,860 per year and then I multiplied it by 11 and divided by 15 (I assume over first 4 years since driving out of factory the car does not require outlays due to wear and tear and defects are covered by manufacturer’s warranty).

Petrol – I here assume price of 1 litre of petrol is PLN 5.00 and the average petrol consumption is 7 litres per 100 kilometres (if I drive at reasonable speeds beyond town and very rarely get stuck in traffic jams, perfectly doable).

As mentioned at the beginning, I take business trips by private car, therefore I am eligible for mileage allowance of PLN 0.8358 per kilometre which is the money (free of income tax) my car earns for me.

I believe I have included all the costs. Have I forgotten about something?

3. What if I do not own a car, but still need to use a car in the same manner?

With business trips the private car is replaced with a company car borrowed from a workmate. No costs to bear, mileage allowance goes away!

For a longer holiday trip, I need to hire a compact car for a fortnight. I return it 15 days after picking it up and pay a charge of PLN 99 per day, nearly the cheapest rate for a car found via search-and-compare engine.

For the weekend trips, I hire a compact car to return it 3 days 4 times over year after picking it up and I am charged a higher rate of PLN 129 per day.

The rented cars need to filled up. However if I can safely assume my well-looked-after car with carefully run-in engine repays me with lower fuel consumption, a hire car’s engine’s condition would not be that good and it would consume one litre of petrol per 100 kilometres more.

Finally, travels around Warsaw. Long before setting out to write the post, I have made a calculation of how much my “average journey” would cost, had I used Innogy go. I assumed price per minute of driving at PLN 1.19 and price per minute of sitting at PLN 0.19. A journey composed of 25-minutes-drive, 2-hour parking (I cannot finish my journey beyond Warsaw), 25-minutes-drive would set me back over PLN 80, meaning over one year I would spend over PLN 8,000 on local travels. Seeing total lack of cost-effectiveness, I started asking Uber for quotations of 15-kilometre rides in the evenings or over weekends. The average quotations were between PLN 30 and PLN 35 per ride (Uber beats traditional taxis at night and beyond Taxi zone 1), so I assumed the cost of PLN 32 per ride, meaning there-and-back cost is PLN 64, this repeated 100 times a year, which squares with my pattern of local driving roughly twice a week.

Besides, I own a parking space in a garage beneath my flat, which I would own anyway, so I do not include the cost of it, but if I did not have a car, I could sublet it. As I have observed, people seldom appreciate merits of shielding their vehicles from elements of weather and the key factor shaping demand for parking lots in underground garages are problems finding an open-air free-for-all parking lot around. Sadly in my neighbourhood this is not a problem, besides in a nearby building a private investor has bought up several places in the underground garage and is still struggling to find tenants. I believe the maximum price I could get is PLN 140 per month (not a trouble to find a garage in Ursynów for PLN 150 at OLX or Gumtree) and the space would be rented for 11 out of 12 months, besides I pay a flat property rental income tax of 8.5%.

I leave the figures without comments, you should reach the conclusion yourself.

By car? Why?

When choosing a property to buy (I consider a purchase to meet one’s own housing needs) one of primary factors taken into consideration is a location. A prime place to reside in, apart from unmeasurable factors which boil down a spirit of the place and features of a specific dwelling, such as layout, storey, amenities, must be well-located.

Why have I chosen to live a particular part of Ursynów? Not just my fondness of the district and its distinguishing climate, but practical reasons. Needless to say I spend just a fraction of non-sleep time at home, but I get about regularly to specific places.

To work – regular route covered back and forth usually five times a week. My dwelling is just less than a kilometre from the entrance to an underground station, which gives an opportunity to have two short walks, one in the morning, one in the afternoon. The door-to-door journey takes me on average 45 minutes, assuming I march to or from the underground station. If I am in a hurry or carry a laptop and a bag with packed lunches for two consecutive days, two bus lines: 179 and 192 can take me the underground and save my time. The underground trains, unless somebody attempts to commit suicide or leaves unattended luggage, are the most reliable and quick form of public transport in Warsaw. My goal of not being car-dependent in terms of commuting to work has been attained. Since moving in, I drove to work once, to bring a table delivered by a courier to my office. The door-to-door journey in each direction lasted 50 minutes…

To do the grocery shopping – three or four times a week. Lidl, being my primary discount shop where I stock up in basis stuff is less than 100 metres from my door; for no apparent reason some of my neighbours drive there to do the shopping… Biedronka where I reluctantly venture to hunt “second item cheaper” bargains is next to Metro Stokłosy, so I can pop by there on my way from work. Auchan where I shop around once a week is nearly 3 kilometres away and sadly there is no direct bus connection there. I can walk to the shop, but lugging a heavy bag with my spine is a no good idea… I take then 179 bus and change it for 504 near Multikino. Tesco Kabaty is available by 179 bus, yet I dislike the hypermarket, its layout, plus its pricing policy is inferior to Auchan, Lidl and Biedronka...

To visit my parents – once or twice a week, 9 kilometres by car (which is the shortest distance I happen to drive if I sit behind the wheel) or 7 kilometres by bike, weather and circumstances permitting. Close enough to pay them a late afternoon visit, if I don’t feel like putting in calling on them into my weekend agenda and sufficiently close if at emergency (they are getting older so such factors needs to be taken into account). But going to Nowa Iwiczna by public transport means a door-to-door journey no shorter than fifty minutes (compare it to 20 minutes by car in non-peak hours or 25 minutes by bike) and this shortest journey involves a three-kilometre walk through Las Kabacki… I have never tried it and do not intend to try.

To the swimming pool – located roughly a mile from my house, I get there by 504 bus. I laugh at people who drive 2 kilometres to a gym to have some exercise…

I generally do not understand why so many locals drive around Ursynów, especially since the district is nearly constantly jammed because of the ongoing construction of Warsaw’s Southern Bypass. Since moving in I have used the car for mid- and long-distance journeys. The car sits idle on average on 3 out of 4 days (nearly 3,000 kilometres covered over 3 months) and used only when it is far more convenient way of moving around than public transport or a bike.

Would I consider selling the car and switching to car sharing or car rental then? In a week I will present to you a number-backed analysis with detailed assumption which would answer the question whether with my car usage patterns it makes economic sense to own the car. I will compare the total cost of ownership to costs of hiring a car for long-distance journeys a few times a year and switching to car-sharing for mid-distance trips around Warsaw and its suburbs.