Polish parliamentary election in 2019 - what to expect?

I recall 27 May 2019 as a dejecting morning. The two-percentage-points victory of PiS over Koalicja Europejska instead of narrowing down broadened to seven percentage points. All cards meant to clinch the victory to the united opposition turned out to be stacked up against it. The ruling partly has won the actual poll before the autumnal parliamentary election, due in less than 3 months.

The defeat has taken the wind out of opposition’s sails. Blamestorming lasted short, yet the big anti-PiS coalition has not survived. Differences in terms of agendas were to big to be reconciled and most probably PO has wished to retreat from turning too far left and pushing some of its conservative electorate towards PiS.

PO, Nowoczesna and some little groupings and organisations will go as one bloc. After years of being stuck in the doldrums, they have finally gotten their acts together and presented an agenda (which is moderately leftist-liberal, therefore takes my fancy) and have realised they should speak about real problems, not substitute ones convenient for PiS and mobilising its fearful voters defending conservative values.

Leftist parties go united as another bloc, which seems natural. SLD, Wiosna and Razem might still have to endure some internal squabbles within the coalition, as Robert Biedroń and Adrian Zandberg are in my humble opinion too narcistic to shape up with the formula of wide coalition, each of them would have ambitions to play the first fiddle. Though they do not get my vote, I keep fingers crossed for them and hope they garners seats in the parliament as the second pro-democratic alliance.

PSL, despite the absence of the leftist activists in the PO-led bloc, has finally decided to set up its own coalition. The party has been undercut in its stronghold, i.e. rural areas by PiS. Besides, it has tainted itself by flirting with Kukiz ’15 which cannot be ranked among pro-democratic groupings. Moreover, there is a flank in PSL, namely Waldemar Pawlak and his henchmen, who lean towards PiS. Given all the recent moves, I cannot say I wish them well, but sadly all votes cast for them might go to waste if they do not cross the 8 percent threshold for parliament entry (assuming they are registered as a coalition).

Is PiS doomed to win? Let’s look at the history…

In early 2005 Donald Tusk had no chances to win the race for presidency, but eventually he failed in the run-off narrowly.

In the same year PO was bound to win the parliamentary election, while PiS was predicted to be the runner-up. The outcome was exactly the other way round.

In 2007 term of the parliament was shortened, since PiS was hoping to get full power. Instead, voters turned down Kaczynski’s vision of Poland.

In 2015 Bronisław Komorowski was an odds-on favourite in the presidential election and… lost it.

But in 2011 the situation was akin to what we have today. The ruling PO was not faring well and citizens had plenty of reasons to reject them. Yet PiS, then in the opposition was weak and lacking a proposal for Poles, therefore PO easily won the election with lukewarm water in the tap and despite several scandals and controversies. I believe today we should seek analogies with how things went in 2011.

These days, given the economic situation (i.e. the reckless spending spree of the current government and imminent slowdown), I believe in the long run the best option for Poland would be a victory of PiS, yet without simple majority in the parliament. PiS has to pay the price for its irresponsible fiscal policies and the bill will likely be issued over the next 4 years. On top, without a simple majority, wielding power will not be a bed of roses and would lead to several rotten give-and-takes that would dissuade some of the voters who have been deluded by PiS.

One thing which is certain is that a lot can change over the next weeks. I fear the worst, but hope for the best.