The last good year for the Polish economy

If you claim PiS has a macroeconomic agenda for Poland, I am afraid you would find it hard to convince me. The economic agenda of the ruling party rests on social allowances, this one pillar is fairly sufficient to prop it up and buy off several voters who, for the first time since 1989 have been given tangible cash into their hands.

The previous governments were pursuing systemic reforms, while this government neglects important spheres which require attention and investments, such as education, health service, efficient public administration. This is all done at the expense of money spent on social transfers. A new system of roads, modern trains, an improved schooling system prove not to improve the comfort of living as good as five hundred zlotys held in a palm.

Allowances generously given out by PiS are not correlated with what products or services put out in an economy nor anyhow linked to productivity. With the same amount of goods and services delivered, incomes of individuals rise. This in the short run spurs consumption and propels economic growth, but in the long run, as any student of economics should know, would spark off inflation, the phenomenon has already begun to materialise and apply most to basic products, such as fruits and vegetables, as well as to services.

The continuous price growth is consistently ignored by the central bank, whose officials obstinately point at its temporary nature, while in fact the inflation has not been caused by external shocks, but is driven predominantly by rising wages which are the component of a price of nearly any product or service. The central bank, by keeping its benchmark rate over one percentage point below (official) inflation rate not only facilitates transfer of wealth from savers to borrowers (including the biggest debtor, i.e. the government), but also fails to fulfil its statutory task which is ensuring price stability.

Savings of those have put some money aside are eaten up by inflation or actually the savers lose in real terms. When such situations occur, cash holders flee their cash and attempt to invest in assets which can potentially protect their savings from inflation. The biggest victims are first homebuyers priced out of the market, since the property market is the mostly afflicted by cash fleeing.

The cost pressures are hitting results of enterprises which have to raise wages (this pertains mostly to manufacturers), bear higher costs of energy (to be unfrozen in 2020) and transport. As an analyst covering corporate clients I have access to portfolio statistics which clearly show 2017 was the best year for corporates in Poland, then profitability of businesses dwindled in 2018, first half of 2019 have brought a further decline and number of distressed companies is further rising. With quick growth of minimum wages and increase in social security contributions the trend is unlikely to reverse.

Fellow bankers and I in unison are confident the Polish economy is anywhere but in the balance. It is overheated. I blame the Polish government, precisely their pursuit of policies of adding fuel to the fire and the central bank for not raising the interest rates when it should have been done, i.e. in 2017 for the overheating.

Regardless of my gripes, PiS is bound to win the election due in two weeks. As I once pointed out, it ought to win to pay the price for its reckless policy, but we have to mobilise ourselves to minimise the scale of their victory, at best not to let them win simple majority. Keep the faith!

Live by your rules

An odd jumble of thoughts inspired by the recent definitely not uneventful (who else think double negations take away from clarity of a sentence?) week…

1. Communication between males should be straightforward. If you bear a grudge against your male mate, tell it to him straight in his face. Whenever a discord arises between you, speak out and get it off your chest. Courage is a man’s virtue, so do make use of it and have your say.

2. Some women are like monkeys. A monkey, while jumping around trees, needs to grab one branch before letting the other. Some women will not quit her current boyfriend before they find another one and ensure they will have a smooth landing in his arms just after thy break up. I find it disgusting…

3. This links to thought #2. Bring yourself into order before you start over. This means after you decide to terminate a relationship, get over it, realise what has been wrong with it and what you do not want to repeat in the next one.

4. If you want, you will find a way, if you do not want, you will find an excuse.

5. If you have a problem with yourself, firstly admit it and define it. If you fail to cope with it yourself, nor your friends are capable of helping you, consult a therapist. This is not a shame, a shame is to get stuck in a mire.

6. There is no room for mercy in business. The corporate world occasionally gives somebody hard time or just sends somebody under. If this is a part of the game, so shape up or ship out.

7. The universe is in a balance. The evil you receive from people into the long run is counterbalanced by the good. While the former hurts, the latter must be discerned, taken with gratitude and paid back for.

8. Karma always returns. Being good to fellow humans disinterestedly pays off in moments of predicament even when you least expect it.

9. Even if you think you are a misfit, look around. Quite certainly there are several misfits whose look at the world is akin to yours.

10. See further than the end of your nose. A recent research on motivations of main political parties electorates shows majority of voters of KO and Lewica back the opposition since the vision of a country their favourite party presents squares with their view, while those who support PiS do it since the ruling party ensures their personal benefits (pecuniary allowances).

Beauty is only skin deep

In early July, when she came for an interview and I saw her in passing only, I thought they are about hire another manager. Having looked at her legs I said to myself I could work under her (in case anybody wondered what that post was inspired by).

She joined my team (i.e. the one I work in, not the one I am in charge of, for avoidance of doubt) in August as a junior analyst. As a next year’s graduate, she has some way to go before she becomes a self-supporting team member. By that time the workload she takes off other workmates is offset by more experienced employees’ time sacrificed to teach her. No wonder, this is called an investment in human capital. Nearly a decade ago some people, whom I am grateful today, have invested in me.

She had had an internship last year in another department, then had a break and returned to my team. She can boast to be in the first decile of best students of the same university I have graduated from, so the managers thought she is a very promising candidate.

In terms of background, I believe she is OK. Her energy and positive attitude resemble me at such age (i.e. in 2010) will keep her company for a while, then the ruthless corporation will suck it out of her. In terms of behaviour, from the first hours, she has been extremely bold, including asking people personal questions and openly flirting with me (after two weeks of attempts and being confronted with my humorous, yet firm retorts she has not completely given up on, yet reduced frequency of ambiguous chats).

What she is like? Tall, skinny, figure of a model, dyed blonde hear, tonnes of make-up on face (a thick layer of powder and vivid-red lipstick). Her behaviour is anything but natural not straightforward. She plays out roles all the time, every her word, movement, smile, look seems carefully planned.

Whether she’s beautiful? Either I can’t tell, because I have never seen her without make-up (somehow I don’t long for it) or just she does not square with my definition of a beautiful woman who is beautiful without make-up.

My female colleagues dislike her. Not because they envy her a model’s look, but since they see her duplicity and mistrust her. She is anything but trustworthy, so we all watch our words while she is around.

Male workmates at first salivated at her sight, after a month they make laugh of her. Quick change of mind boys in the office have exhibited lifts my spirit. We have all realised she is looking out for a new cash machine. She met her current boyfriend while having the aforementioned internship, therefore she could not return to her previous workplace. My capacity to become a cash machine are decent, yet my motivation is close to zero (I am considering the “money in exchange for sex” arrangement).

One evening I thought about printing out the motto of the fellow blogger: UNDERSTAND YOUR BIOLOGY. THEN RISE ABOVE. But on second thoughts I concluded this would be too provocative, through bright.

In the meantime our manager is committed to be her mentor and coach and spends lots of time teaching her (taking that undesired load off backs of team members). Sadly, folks around the floor have noticed it and his engrossment in taking care of the new employee is a topic of gossips and jokes in nooks and crannies of the office… To make it clear, I do not think he would go beyond professional framework of this relationship, but the very fact an attractive young girl sees him as seasoned manager boosts his ego.

Life’s a whore…

After one turns 30, when the ticking of the clock is more audible people tend to go into two extremes. Either they raise the bar too high and no potential partner can meet their exorbitant requirements or they lower their expectations overly and get involved into middling relationships. This reminds me of one sink-or-swim decision I should take…

Polityka - film review

Went to a cinema yesterday for the first time this year (shame on me, flat finishing tribulations and summer period were inconducive to familiarising with new moving pictures). To see the long-awaited depiction of Polish political arena, I chose a lunch-time screening at a local Multikino. The film which had premiered on Wednesday is played more than 10 times a day over the first week in Multikino Ursynów, which signals the only cinema in the neighbourhood has braced for high demand for tickets. I feared the screening room would be crowded, yet I was nearly alone out there. The audience was composed of around 20 viewers. Not a blockbuster…

I have watched some of Patryk Vega’s films shot in recent years, some were reviewed as not worthwhile buying a voucher exchangeable for a cinema ticket, therefore I knew I should have not expected a highbrow sense of humour nor a sophisticated plot. Polityka’s first reviews were anything but favourable; critics and journalists view the film as mediocre.

As for the plot, a little spoiler – the film is made up of a few stories whose plots and characters intertwine with one another. The stories are a mixture of “I have seen it all before” and some political fiction, however far too predictable and far too obvious in terms of similarities with real persons and events.

The cast and the effort of actors to play the scenes from Polish politics after 2015 are major strengths of the film that make it worthwhile at all. Hats down to Andrzej Grabowski (the chairman), Antek Królikowski (an almost minister of national defence) and Zbigniew Zamachowski (the father director) whose roles in the film proves their mastery in the craft.

The film deals blows nearly only to the ruling party, although there are several prominent politicians of it omitted at all (not a second dedicated to the current justice minister who has done more harm to Poland than the former prime minister). The opposition is ridiculed in one of the stories only, yet for the sake of symmetry and despite my antipathy towards PiS I would see more opposition-flogging scornful scenes (Ryszard Petru being my main candidate to be derided).

Just like Kler and Tylko nie mów nikomu, the film is going to change nothing in the parliamentary election due in 5 weeks. I keep hoping for a result ensuring PiS misses the simple majority by a number of seats large enough to make buying off deputies from other groupings a nuisance.

#metoo

The sexual harassment scandals have first begun to come to the light in the film industry. The outrages were sparked off by situations some of which I believe provoked by young women intent on making quick careers. You could argue who should take moral responsibility for incidences of harassment speeding up career advancements. I believe it all boils down to sexuality of humans which cannot be muffled nor circumvented. Regardless of the guilt (although I lean towards blaming the “system”), the issue has become an issue of critical importance and another brick in the wall of political correctness. It has also spilled over corporations, many of which have put into effect schemes and code of practices (sometimes absurd and at the end of the day having the opposite effect) which prevent such situations.

A few months ago I had an online training on violence and sexual harassment at workplace. My female and male workmates have unanimously mocked at it, coming to a conclusion we have repeatedly been both victims and perpetrators of sexual harassment. Under the definition paying your workmate a compliment that their outfit suits them well already falls under sexual harassment. A proposal to go to kitchen to drink coffee together or to go together for a lunch out also might make you a criminal. Or let your workmate sue a corporation and wheedle out money.

My scepticism towards #metoo does not mean I embrace various forms of overstepping boundaries at work. I believe however some behaviours might be acceptable:

- obvious ones, as eating or drinking coffee together, travelling in a lift or sitting in a room without glass walls and other persons assisting you,

- ambiguous jokes or another form of humour not aimed at any specific person, albeit my good practice is to hold back from really bawdy jokes when women are around,

- soft flirting confined to paying compliments.

What is unacceptable then:

- any form deemed acceptable above if a specific person affected it has expressed their wish to cease it or finds it unacceptable,

- lewd humour aimed at specific person (although there are people, like me, who find it acceptable as long as everybody knows there are just jokes)

- explicit proposals,

- touching, groping and other forms of physical contact.

I also recommend an article from Financial Times which puts the matter in a well-balanced perspective.

Stringent rules and fear of being accused of harassment or assault have also the other side of the coin. They hamper starting up relationships (out of such fear) at workplace which at some age is the main opportunity to meet new people and spend more time with them (needless to say relationships on superior – subordinates line or between units where conflicts of interest may appear are not desirable). Unless you want to install Tinder… Yet the dating application offers the muck many of us, including me, do not fit in…