Wintry Christmas? No such luck!

Each single advertisement and each (with some exceptions) film whose plot plays out in Christmas period is set in a scenery of bright, snowy, often sunny winter. This has little do with actual weather…

But shapes our expectations…

 …which hardly stand confrontation with the reality.

 I have taken the trouble to find out how many of Christmas Eves between 1951 and 2019 (69 years, with firm forecasts of late autumnal weather I can fairly add this year’s Christmas Eve to the sample) when reliable and precise weather measurements have been taken and are publicly available were wintery. I define winter (hereinafter proper winter) as day-time high below 0C and at least 1 centimetre of snow lying on the ground. Out of 68 Christmas Eves, only on 13 (1953, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1969, 1970, 1986, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2003), i.e. less than one in five Christmas Eves one could enjoy proper winter in Warsaw.

I have also collected detailed data for my lifetime and have broken them down into 4 categories, taking into account combinations of two features of winter conditions: sub-zero temperature and snow. I define:

- snowy as at least 1 centimetre of snow lying on the ground,

- frosty as day-time high below 0C,

- thaw and frost-free as day-time high equal to or higher than 0C,

- melting snow as at least centimetre of snow lying on the ground, but disappearing on account of positive temperature,

- without snow and snow-free as no snow falling or lying on the ground or sleet or snow falling, yet melting instantly or soon after reaching the ground.

Snowy and frosty (i.e. proper winter): 1990, 2001, 2002, 2003.

Thaw, melting snow: 2010, 2012.

Frosty, without snow: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007.

Frost-free, snow-free: 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

In my lifetime, 4 out of 33 Christmas Eves brought proper winter, the last one was witnessed 16 years ago (and was third subsequent one).

Interestingly, in my childhood quite common were frosty (frequently with double-digit negative temperatures) yet snow-free Christmas Eves.

In 2010 and 2012 the weather was particularly cruel, as Christmas thaws were just interludes in cold and snowy Decembers.

This year’s December is the seventh warmer-than average December in a row. Until today there was no snow, nor sleet in Warsaw, nor a day with maximum temperature below 0C, so my annual winter timeline has not been launched. The coming days are to bring colder and gloomier weather, with rain showers, typical for late autumn. Some of long-term forecasts hint at odds of a sleet or melting snow in the last days of December, yet I believe we will wait for the onset of proper winter until January.