Pandemic diary - week 2

Monday, 23 March 2020

A flood of fake news, mushrooming these days, is another plague we must fight. The appeal is well-belated, yet evil people keep trying to capitalise on fear and destabilise our society. The problem is we still know little about the coronavirus. Even scientists, when asked questions on the coronavirus, vary in their responses.

I am generally impressed by Poles’ discipline in terms of social distancing. I wonder how long before we run out of patience. I suppose we will have to endure several weeks in such regime.

Tuesday, 24 March 2020

The Polish Banks Association’s proposal on loan rescheduling and relief package is not worth a fig. My insight into the world of banking and how specific banks pursue it takes me aback negatively. These are just guidelines, not legally binding and set forth in the absence of loosening any regulation on capital adequacy and asset impairment standards. The mess inside the banking sector is overwhelming, to the detriment of clients.

Walked to a nearby (3 kilometres from home) PKN Orlen station to attempt to buy the renowned disinfection liquid manufactured by the company. The card at the station’s door informs they are temporarily out of stock, which is a blatant departure from the truth. They are at times temporarily stocked up.

Wednesday, 25 March 2020

A fortnight since I moved my office home and keep my distance in interhuman relations. One psychologist claimed a human brain needs two weeks to adjust to a totally new situation. I think I have learnt to live with it, yet I cannot say I get on with it.

The new restrictions in place since today are imprecise. The decree has been written at the back of an envelope and raises several doubts. Nevertheless I will not stays inside the walls of my flat. I will take physical exercise alone and will ensure a two-metre distance from other people is kept.

Second day in a row of working for 13 hours.

Thursday, 26 March 2020

The ruling party insists on holding the presidential election in May 2020, despite the epidemic. I recall a post written nearly 10 years ago. The phrase po trupach do celu has never suited so well to what PiS is doing.

Death statistics are falsified. My high-school classmate who works at MSWiA hospital confirms what is said in the media. The number of fatalities is deflated for a simple reason – if a patient has all symptoms of coronavirus and dies, the corpse is not tested for the virus due to shortage of tests and diagnostics capacity. This is justified, since scarce resources should be allocated to help the alive, yet the reported death toll does not give a fair picture.

Friday, 27 March 2020

During my regular evening walks around the neighbourhood I see no incidences of people ignoring the restrictions. This gives some hope the number of infected patients will not rise as quickly as in Spain or Italy.

A spell of warmth also lifts my spirits. I spend three hours on the balcony.

Saturday, 28 March 2020

It is a sad day for democracy in Poland, one of many since late 2015. Bandits from PiS have attempted to change the election code, 43 days ahead of the scheduled voting. This is yet another breach of constitution, plus rules of the game are changed after it has commenced.

The numbers of cars parked in the open air, or rather the number of free parking lots around Ursynów, suggests several locals have decided to flee Warsaw and wait out the epidemic in their home towns. Many with their elderly relatives.

Temperature today tops +17C, time for a cycling shake-down. I take a 50-kilometre bike ride and take it in my stride. I am astonished by how fit I am after the winter season. Sadly, as the temperature rises and outdoor beckons, social discipline melts.

Pandemic diary - week 1

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest disruption to people living in the war-free and disaster-free parts of the world since the end of WW2. Once we endure it, it will become a history. Worth saving those days for posterity.

Monday, 16 March 2020

Cold morning. Jumped on my bike to a local one-day hospital to find out whether my mother has her visit, scheduled for today, cancelled. To my surprise, the centre operates normally, but who knows whether her eye surgery, scheduled in a week will be performed (update: it is cancelled until further notice).

At work things take a worse than expected turn. We switch into 10-hour working day and begin to pursue our banking state of emergency to ease distressed customers.

Tuesday, 17 March 2020

A 10-hour working day is just a theory. Disruptions in trade prompted businesses to act defensively to shield their liquidity, which in fact means many industries have run into a state of all-in payment gridlock. The scale of cut-off has risen well below my expectation. I miss a company in my lonely fight.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Finally my spirits somewhat lifted. I have shaken off the shock, which had been my reaction to how businesses had responded to harsh measures against the pandemic. At work we have tried out videoconferencing. At least it gives a substitute of a fellow man’s presence.

Day-time high of +17C, so I spend nearly the entire afternoon in the balcony with notebook on my knees, my skin catching sunrays. I knock off before sunset (only once this week) and go for a walk. The sight of groups of teenagers hanging around in the open air brings me down and so does the report of the daily death toll in Italy – 475 fatalities of the virus over last 24 hours. In terms of total deaths, Italy will probably overtake China tomorrow (update – it did); in terms of deaths per 1,000,000 citizens it has surpassed China several days ago.

Thursday, 19 March 2020

I wonder what impact the coronavirus will have on the housing market in Poland. Some analysts say after buyers shake off (i.e. a few weeks after the epidemy comes to an end) prices will continue to rally, especially with slashed cost of credit. I believe property prices are correlated strongly with macroeconomic environment and will slowly decline (property prices unlike share prices are rather rigid) for a few quarters. In the meantime the rental market has invented a niche – flats for rent for a fortnight quarantine – such ads are immediately removed by site administrators.

The president of the Polish central bank said today Poland’s GDP growth will decline to +2% y/y in 2020. Who is he going to fool? I predict a sharp recession, observing how businesses have grinded to a halt. I believe the central bank should not further cut interest rates, while the benchmark rate ought to stay at 1% only until the economic recovery is confirmed.

At work today from 8:00 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

Friday, 20 March 2020

There should be no delusion – everyone will pay the bill for the economic crisis which has just started. There is no point is hoping the government will absorb it. The government does not have its own money, it collects money in taxes. What the government can do is to:
1) try to distribute costs of the crisis for equitably,
2) defer payment of the bill until economy recovers.

Authorities of Warsaw have finally decided that since next week public transport will run according to weekend timetable. I have had enough of sight of buses running nearly empty or totally empty through Ursynów, unnecessarily emitting fumes and greenhouse gases and increasing wear-and-tear beyond what is necessary. A month ago I would bridle at somebody who would tell me in four weeks I would advocate using private cars (not shared cars, not taxis) for moving around town. I last drove out of the garage on Sunday (so I do not use the car more than I really need not) and move around on foot, by bike or by car, depending on distance and weather. Once the epidemy is gone, I will revert to praising public transport.

At work today from 7:30 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

21 March 2020

Listened to an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński at RMF FM. Listen to it or read it here and draw your own conclusions.

The presidential election, due in May 2020 need to be postponed, this goes without saying and does not need additional justification.

Today at work for merely 5 hours, to catch up with stuff which need to be ready on Monday morning.

Uncertainty

Wednesday, 1 January 2020, late morning. Empty streets. I thought to myself whether this would be possible on any other day of the year. Reality has already answered my question.

At the beginning of the week I planned to write about the oncoming presidential election, still due in May. As I am writing this post the state of emergency has not been declared, yet I believe we might be hours from it being declared, as the situation profoundly justifies it. Nevertheless, the incumbent president kept campaigning in Garwolin yesterday. His term needs to be extended in current circumstances – we will endure a few months more with him as a head of state.

With an invisible enemy which has brought nations to its knees and disorganises our lives, all current affairs and plans recede into the background. We might yearn for just a week ago was a normalcy.

On Friday, 6 March, I spent the evening in a restaurant with friends.

On Saturday, 7 March, I last went to a local swimming pool.

On Tuesday, 10 March I last travelled to work by underground (without much fear).

On Wednesday, 11 March, I drove to the office by (private) car and took all IT equipment home to ensure my workplace for a few weeks (my living room) is ergonomic and comfortable.

On Friday, 13 March, after the conference held by the prime minister, I rushed to Decathlon to pick up by bike from completed pre-season maintenance (yesterday the shop was closed and thanks to this my bike is not arrested for a few weeks).

In terms of preventive measures, Poland is ahead of other countries at the same stage of the epidemy. All inconveniences are pursued wisely, yet one has to bear in mind the Polish health service suffers after years of being neglected and underfunded. I am of the opinion further restrictions ought to be placed, with limiting trade to groceries, pharmacies, petrol stations and other services essential to keep life going. Rationing out food and other stuff people stockpiled on in recent days (including lavatory paper) would in my opinion make sense, to prevent people from making gatherings in shops.

Recovery after the epidemy is under control is one thing, the other task will be resuscitation of the economy. Several small businesses had to be closed down and consequently deprived of revenue, which most expenses due to be paid, including salaries payable to employees. Bigger enterprises usually have resources to carry on for a few months, smaller ones might not survive a month. Here also prevention is better than cure.

The banking system is indeed (at least in this respect officials do not lie) well-prepared for serious tribulations, as long as people do not start withdrawing deposits. My insight observation is that my employer and probably no other bank has not envisaged in its business continuity plans such widespread disruptions. We are working to improve business continuity procedures and bracing ourselves for helping distressed customers especially in situations when signing documentation is impossible.

This situation tests us for:
- idiocy – those who shrug off the peril, compare it to regular flu and rush to shops to stock up excessively fail it,
- manhood – we should be ready to help and care for the most vulnerable fellows,
- discipline – this is the time to give up on what considered to be a normal life over our entire lifetime.

Apart from the economy, human psyches will need to recover. Some, like me, spend this time in isolation. Phone calls, Messenger or WhatsApp will not replace face-to-face contact. Others are stuck with their partners or families in one dwelling, possibly for several weeks without major breaks, which will also put their relationships to the test. Maybe the epidemy will reshape model of fostering relationships and appreciate being with another person, rather than with a smartphone.

I read a human brain needs two weeks to adjust to such unprecedented situation. 14 days seem little, yet the progress of epidemy is faster than capacity of the human brain – what I wrote on 1 March about the coronavirus seems outdated today. The word which best describes where we are know is uncertainty. We do not know how our life will look like in a week. Easter, due in 4 weeks seems a distant future. But quite possibly, in a year life will be going on pretty normally, hopefully.

Down-to-earth stuff: today is the fifth anniversary of my paternal grandmother’s death.

Weather-wise, last night was the coldest this… cold season in Warsaw, with temperature down to –8C.

T****r - one month on

Having shared some first impressions on using the dating app, time for some more observations and some advice for those considering using it. Supposedly, it is no longer a shame, but there is no guarantee you will not be stigmatised or categorised as looking for ONS* or FWB**.

Before you run Tinder, read a few articles how algorithms of Tinder work. In simple words, they drive which profiles will be shown to other users (if you are shown, you get chances to be selected), based on your relative attractiveness (how many users swipe you left and how many swipe you right) which is partly beyond your control and based on your behaviour patterns. Tinder scores highest moderately picky users. Those who swipe only right (to maximised odds of being paired up) and who swipe left too frequently (i.e. are to picky / selective looking for matches) are ranked lower.

Your attractiveness (which is partly under your control) depends on how well you invest in your profile. Uploading a few photos of you (which show how you really look like) and writing a summary of you boosts chances of drawing interest of other users. I have no idea what people who upload one picture and write nothing about themselves reckon on.

The biggest chances are upon creating a profile, so at the very beginning. At that time your choice of partners is the biggest – once you swipe somebody left or right, you do it irreversibly (unless you pay for a premium account). Also at that time your profile shows up most frequently to others users as a fresh one. After a week or two you may run out of potential partners, which is a reason many users delete their profiles and set them up anew.

Looking a somebody reasonable on an application which still is labelled as designed to look for casual sex resembles looking for a needle in a haystack. It takes luck, patience and reserve.

Tinder is definitely not for sensitive people. Apart from being exposed to online dating pathologies, you should bear in mind the percentage of people having problems with self (it pertains to both women and men) on Tinder is much higher than average.

Besides, I am not fond of online communication, which is should be just a substitute of face-to-face communication if for some reason you cannot see a fellow man. Tinder can be good to gain exposure to potential partners which is limited in daily, repetitive life, but once your conversation goes well for a while (to be precise, for around 4 – 8 days), time to meet offline – so is my principle.

So far not a word about girls I have chatted with or dated. Keeping you curious, dear readers.

* stands for one night stand

** stands for friends with benefits

Coronavirus

The epidemy (or pandemic) of the SARS-Cov-2 virus that has spread around the world can be hailed as a typical black swan. It hit out of the blue (despite some warnings situation in China could spiral out of control) and keeps wreaking havoc to the entire world.

I am not a medical expert, hence I am holding back from commenting of the medical nature of the virus. As an economist I am observing manufacturing disruptions in China spilling over the entire world, causing dreadful knock-on effects in supply chains. The outbreak of the virus fortunately coincided with the Chinese New Year celebrations, when manufacturing customarily comes to a standstill for 3 weeks and ahead of which period each year off-takers of Chinese factories stock up on goods.

Nevertheless, first symptoms of the epidemy in China have been observed in Poland with distributors of goods produced in Hubei province, particularly of consumer electronics. They declare they would run out of inventories completely if deliveries are not resumed in April. Next stricken are producers who rely on semi-processed components from China (here the automotive industry if most frequently said to be badly affected). As first incidences of the coronavirus were reported in Europe, tourism and transport have been dealt a sudden blow.

The stock exchanges on all continents have suffered the worst week since financial meltdown in 2008-2009. The broad index of the Warsaw stock exchange (WIG) has fallen by 14.2% over the recent week, marking one of the worst weeks since trading began 30 years ago. Melting valuations of stocks reflect fear of global recession caused by the virus. At the moment I would not dare to predict how stock markets would behave in the long run and I do not find myself competent to adjudicate whether financial markets correctly price in the future (since there are too many unknowns pertaining to the future).

I have tried to learn possibly a lot about the coronavirus and the scale of destruction it could perpetrate globally and I still find myself unable to assess whether the risks are overestimated or underestimated. Precautions taken against the virus are stringent, I wonder to what extent they are justified. Definitely bouts of collective panic, as the ones reported in northern Italy, are not desirable, yet they constitute a natural reaction of humans to an unidentified peril.

Media report different figures on mortality. You can divide the number of the diseased to those who have come down with the virus and arrive at around 3%, yet this figure fails to take into account those ill who might die soon. If you exclude those down with the virus whose fate is hard to predict, you will get a proportion of those who have deceased versus those who have recovered at almost 10% which I believe more accurately reflects the degree of the menace.

Across the web, you can find opinions the hype about the virus is exaggerated, since it is no different than a typical flu. Fools who write such rubbish fail to notice three differences:

1) mortality rate of flu (or its aftermaths) is below 0.1%,

2) there are effective vaccinations and cures against flu,

3) the pace of which flu spreads is slower and flu is harder to contract.

In Poland so far no incidence of the virus has been confirmed. Since the period of winter holidays is just over (several people returned from Asia or north Italy), this is just a matter of days. I am pretty sure the coronavirus has already crossed the borders of Poland, but I am not sure whether it has really not been detected (and for what reason) or it has been detected, but the incidence concealed to avoid panic. I also fear information from China have been dosed out not to show the actual scale of the epidemy.

Though I do not fear a potential disease, the virus has shortened my time horizon. A week ago I only feared I would need to work overtime to work out debt restructuring plans for my affected clients. Today I wonder whether my business trip somewhere near Czech border scheduled for Thursday will take place. Making any holiday plans has been put on hold, but besides – business as usual. I am waiting for the story to unfold and watch it carefully, since these days will go down in history.