Pandemic diary – weeks 62 & 63

Monday, 17 May 2021
Seven-day average number of new infection has declined by more than 90% since the peak on 1 April 2021. Thus I ought to discontinue the diary, as promised, but I will switch into monthly reporting and pledge to resume the reporting in bi-weekly intervals once the seven-day average returns above 3,000, which sadly might happen with carefree opening everything up on 29 May 2021.

Tuesday, 18 May 2021
I posit that reporting new infections should be comprehensive. The total number of newly detected case should be split into:
- fully vaccinated (at least 14 days after the last dose of a vaccine),
- partly vaccinated (at least 14 days after the first dose of two-dose vaccines, but no more than 14 days after the last dose of a two-dose vaccine),
- unvaccinated (which includes up to 14 days after the first dose of any vaccine).

Wednesday, 19 May 2021
Percentage of Poles who have registered for the vaccination or received at least one dose has risen to 48%, or by 5 percentage points within 9 days. Not reassuringly a lot, not disturbingly little. All-out assault of anti-vaxxers’ propaganda does its bit in Poland.

Thursday, 20 May 2021
Minister Dworczyk (in charge of the national vaccination programme) asks Internet users on Twitter how to promote vaccinations and combat disinformation. Commendable he taps people’s brains, but in his tweet he cries out for helplessness.

Friday, 21 May 2021
Now let’s ask ourselves how to handle anti-vaxxers. Clash with them and debunk their lies or cut them dead. My gut feeling goes for the former, but prudence tells to opt for the latter. If you respond to their twaddle, you increase its visibility in the Internet. The lack of reaction firstly means the content reaches fewer recipients, moreover, being ignored will make them feel worse.

Saturday, 22 May 2021
One-third of Poland’s entire population have received at least one dose of a vaccine. Long way before we reach herd immunity, if ever.

Sunday, 23 May 2021
Should the government consider financial rewards to persuade those who sceptical to get vaccinated. I would get the jab even if I were to pay for it, but if this is the only way to reach the herd immunity, I would reluctantly back it. Education should be key.

Monday, 24 May 2021
A three-digit number of new infections reported for the first time since 23 September 2020. Now waiting for the story to unfold – will the seven-day moving average decline below 1,000 or will loosened restrictions combined with the Indian variant lead to uptrend in new infections (look at the UK).

Tuesday, 25 May 2021
Yesterday Poland’s most worshipped football player wangled out of answering the question whether he would be vaccinated (upon taking royalties for becoming an ambassador of the National Vaccination Programme). Today he was vaccinated with the only single-dose vaccine available in Europe.

Wednesday, 26 May 2021
The government vaccination lottery, unveiled yesterday was said to be a total flop, a move unlikely to convince those who dither. Today morning, as I refreshed a page which shows free vaccination slots, few were available for mRNA vaccines in comparison to yesterday.

Thursday, 27 May 2021
Belarus ceased to report deaths in 2020, with the last figures available for June 2020 (and hinting at rising death tolls). I wonder how the country which consistently averted lockdown has fared.

Friday, 28 May 2021
There are countries in northern hemisphere which have experienced a peak (defined as maximum 7-day rolling average) of the third wave in May 2021:
- Lithuania on 3 May 2021,
- Georgia on 11 May 2021,
- Latvia on 13 May 2021,
- Japan on 15 May 2021,
- Denmark on 16 May 2021 (and neared that peak on 21 May 2021).
Worth noting in the United Kingdom new cases rose by nearly 50% from the bottom (on 5 May 2021).

Saturday, 29 May 2021
The situation has improved much enough to switch into monthly reporting (summaries to be published on each first Sunday of a month until the pandemic is over, really over, not declared to be fought over). The 7-day average number of new infections has declined below 1,000. Today begins the grand reopening of the economy, i.e. venues where the risk of catching the virus is reasonably high are fully opened. I expect that despite progress of the vaccination programme infections will bottom out around mid-June. Expect the next post on 20 June 2021, after I am back from holidays on the Polish seaside.

The New Deal or the New Scam?

I have used the reverse translation method to do Nowy Ład into English, as Roosevelt’s New Deal agenda is commonly translated into Polish as such. The Nowy ład has also been immediately dubbed Nowy Wał by critics of the government, for which I use term in the title of the post.

It has taken me a few days to catch up with the document. Since the quality of media coverage in Poland is on decline, same as journalists’ grasp of economics, I have decided to take more than a glimpse at the source document, before drawing any conclusions. Despite my dislike for the government, I am trying to take an unbiased look.

The agenda is a leap forward, to keep up the support by the parliamentary election in 2023 and in the meantime to buy off some voters. People have to forget about the trauma of the pandemic and over 100,000 excess deaths the country will have reported by the time the epidemic is truly over.

The very document is just a blueprint of what PiSites want to reform in Poland by 2030, full of general catchwords, lofty intentions and bragging about recent successes. At such level and stage lacking details, but setting objectives. I shall focus on commenting just a few of them.

1.  Increasing the health care spending to 7% of GDP – a commendable goal, yet allocation of money must be wise between available resources. As three decades of not sorted out problems of the state-run health service in Poland prove, any government can sink an infinite amount of money into the system, but in order to make it operate efficiently and patient-friendly, structural problems need to be tacked.

2.  Raising the tax allowance to PLN 30,000 is a step that moves us closer to standards of taxation in the civilised world, where those earning the minimum wage pay almost no tax.

3.  The document mentions a deductible for the middle class, i.e. those whose yearly earnings are in the range from PLN 70,000 to PLN 130,000 – an interesting idea, yet without any details. This point has not appeared in the media coverage.

4.  The threshold for the second tax bracket is to be raised from PLN 85,528 (at which it has stood since 2009) to PLN 120,000 which still does not make up for accumulated inflation over the last 13 years, yet brings some relief to the middle class.

5.  Remote working in non-pandemic times should be finally governed by law (even sooner), ensuring the employee gets compensated for their house maintenance expenses related to home office – at last.

6.  I searched in the document for the provision under which the health care contribution will no longer be deducted from taxable income and have not found it. If such intention does hold true, it will offset positive effects of points 2, 3 and 4.

7.  Property purchase equity is to be guaranteed by the government. Here I am the most sceptical. All programmes aimed at the housing markets pump up property prices (making them less affordable) and benefit banks as mortgage lenders. The scheme is to include a cap on price per square metre, but it will either be sky-high or exclude most properties in large cities from the programme. I would call for a programme aimed at increasing supply of dwelling, yet in a civilised way.

8.  The state is to become an important investor and to create directly or indirectly 500,000 jobs. I am wary of this – free market allocates resources more efficiently, but in Europe and in the USA governments pursue sizeable recovery programmes, so Poland just falls into line.

9.  The tax burden for enterprises to be lower – fine, yet in Poland not the level of taxes, but the instability od regulations and extent to which they are complicated make up a problem.

10. The pension system with the current pension age (60 for women, 65 for men) is not sustainable and the document does not address that issue.

The costs of the agenda have been presented in the document, yet funding sources have not been specified. Any government before it begins to give out money has to collect it in taxes or run up debts. Do bear in mind there is no such thing as a free lunch in economics.

Pandemic diary – weeks 60 & 61

Monday, 3 May 2021
Long weekend comes to an end, along with a massive propaganda mass vaccination campaign. Mobile vaccination centres draw in scores of people queuing up to get one shot of J&J vaccine without waiting for a slot. Picture of people standing in the rain are deplorable. In the meantime nobody raised a little finger to ensure regular vaccination centres work at full blast during the long weekend. For comparison:
- 338 thousand vaccines were administered on 30 April 2021,
- 114 thousand vaccines were administered on 1 May 2021,
- data for 2 May 2021 are not yet available today, as servers have packed up.

Tuesday, 4 May 2021
The first major step in unfreezing. DIY and furniture are reopened, same as shopping malls, a long-awaited moment for me. School fully open to the youngest pupils.

Wednesday, 5 May 2021
The seven-day average of new infection declines below the through reached between the “second” and “third” wave (i.e. 5,214 on 9 February 2021).

Thursday, 6 May 2021
There is much hype about the Indian variant and too much panic. We still have no evidence it is more contagious, more lethal or escapes vaccines. The mutation was not behind the outbreak of the pandemic in India, but all-out abandoning any sanitary regime. Masks off, huge gatherings on – a quick recipe for disaster.

Friday, 7 May 2021
1Q2021: shortage of vaccines was a problem.
2Q2021: logistics in distribution and organising vaccination centres might be a problem.
3Q2021 (or even late June 2021): vaccine hesitancy wall might be a problem. I seriously one day we will have plenty of vaccines and efficient system of vaccinations and 30% of adults reluctant to get the jab.

Saturday, 8 May 2021
I get my first shot in Radzymin, mere 40 kilometres from home. Side effects? A pain in my arm. With hindsight – it disappeared on the next day late in the afternoon.

Sunday, 9 May 2021
COVID-19 death toll in Poland hits 70,000. Unless 70% or even 80% of the society are immunised, epidemic will still smoulder and the heinous figure hits 100,000 before the end of 2021.

Monday, 10 May 2021
The government profile SzczepimySię on Twitter informs only 42% of Poles eligible for vaccination have signed up for their jabs. The remaining 58% have not lifted their little fingers to get immune. More than horrifying.

Tuesday, 11 May 2021
A disrespect for restrictions is more and more eye-popping. Much harder to spot a person wearing a mask on a street just ahead of the obligation being lifted, much easier to find an open eatery or a gym (not a novelty, businesses have been operating underground since February 2021).

Wednesday, 12 May 2021
10% of Poland’s entire population (including children) have been fully vaccinated, 27.7% have received at least one dose. This marks a meaningful milestone in the vaccination programme, yet we are still way off herd immunity (if ever achievable).

Thursday, 13 May 2021
Poland overtakes the United Kingdom in terms of deaths per 1 million citizens. In terms of loosening restrictions in three weeks we will be more or less where they are, but in terms of vaccination programme progress, we are lagging far behind. Worth noting the 7-day average of new infections in the UK bottomed out on 5 May 2021 and keeps rising, due to expansion of the Indian variant, which in fact has two sub-variants:
- B.1617.1 – less contagious, but more likely to escape immune response,
- B.1617.2 – more contagious less likely to escape immune response, this one begins to dominate in some regions in the UK.

Friday, 14 May 2021
I mention deaths too often, but worth noting in Hungary 0.3% of the entire population died from COVID-19, the highest percentage in the world. I hope we will not see Budapest in Warsaw.

Saturday, 15 May 2021
The obligation to wear a face mask outdoors is lifted today. What a relief. Hope it never returns, but fear it is reinstated before the end of summer, as with carefree opening of social life with insufficient populational immunity, new infections might rise again.

Mayoral election in Rzeszów

In the absence of any country-wide election by the autumn of 2023, a mayoral vote to be held in Rzeszów soon is the only touchstone that can speak volumes of the Polish political arena. One could argue whether the touchstone turns out reliable, yet I would contend it does. Rzeszów is the city with nearly 200,000 inhabitants, while big cities are strongholds of current opposition in Poland, but also is the capital of Podkarpackie province, which for several years has been a bastion of PiS. The blend might produce an outcome which can set directions for politics in Poland, albeit given the time to lapse before the parliamentary election (if not brought forward), but not a long-lasting one.

The election had to be called after the incumbent mayor, in service since 2002, resigned for health-related reasons (long-haul COVID-19). The election was due to be held today, but for epidemic-related reasons were put back until 13 June 2021. I fail to see a health-related rationale for the decision. More than a year into the pandemic, we know how to hold an election in a sanitary regime. Unlike in April or May 2020, we have plenty of decent face masks, sanitizers and know how to handle the virus, which will not disappear within a month and which is not bound to decline further, especially since a full economy opening (including schools) is planned by the end of May and the percentage of vaccinated people is does not suggest we may calm down.

The opposition, though usually busy quarrelling with one another, has decided to back one candidate, a local politician, elected regularly as councillor since 2006. This move might clinch the victory of the candidate, well-recognised by locals and having a track record of political independence. He is on the verge of garnering 50% of votes.

The ruling coalition has initially come up with three candidates, currently only two stay in the game. The governor of Podkarpackie province as a member of the ruling party stands a little chance to make it to the run-off. Her rival formally no longer a party member, but remembered by many as deputy minister of justice, is far more likely to compete with the candidate of the opposition in the run-off.

The last candidate, backed by ostensibly-right grouping, is likely to get a two-digit result (in percent), as he represents the views of those who deny the pandemic and want all restrictions to be lifted immediately.

As tensions in the ruling coalition grow, I wonder whether they decide to call an early election after the pandemic ends, but early enough for voters to remember the last part of it and the moment of overcoming the disease and return to normalcy. That might be the last moment for them to retain the simple majority in the parliament, though getting a percentage of votes above 35% will be a huge challenge.