Sunday 2 May 2021

Pandemic diary - weeks 58 & 59

Monday, 19 April 2021
Unlike several European countries, Poland lacks a blueprint of exiting the lockdown (or unfreezing the economy). The virus has taught us to live with uncertainty, but entrepreneurs long for at least some predictability.

Tuesday, 20 April 2021
I finally learn I will be able to sign up for my jab on 28 April at the earliest, mere 5 days earlier thanks to declaring my willingness to get the vaccine as a priority group. From today on, doses left at vaccination centres at the end of the day can be used to vaccinate any adult.

Wednesday, 21 April 2021
While in Poland things are getting better epidemic-wise, worldwide the number of daily new infections has broken the record set on 8 January 2021 (844 thousand). Today it reached 881 thousand. This time the exponential growth of new cases in India is to blame. Probably the country has its own mutation which just like P1 variant from Brazil might pose a threat to the entire world, especially if it can escape vaccines.

Thursday, 22 April 2021
Hungary overtakes Czech Republic and takes in the lead in the nefarious ranking of COVID-19 death rate. 0.2697% of the country’s residents died as a result of the infection. Death-wise, the country is ahead of the Czech Republic, where 0.2674% of population died from COVID-19. Worth noting in Czech Republic 15.04% of residents were diagnosed with COVID-19, while in Hungary the percentage was 7.89% This misleadingly implies around two times higher mortality in Hungary, but differences can be put down to testing policies, since Czech Republic did more than two times more tests per 1 million citizen than Hungary.

Friday, 23 April 2021
Again, around every third day I see friends on Facebook boasting of getting the jab, most before their turn according to the official schedule. I continue to wait my turn.

Saturday, 24 April 2021
10 million doses of vaccines administered in Poland. Glad to see we have passed that milestone and hope we reach 20 million by the end of May 2021, but in terms of shots per 100 citizens we are below EU-average.

Sunday, 25 April 2021
The carnage in India is inadequately covered in the media. On top reactions of several countries to halt passenger traffic from India (also indirectly) have been insufficient in continental Europe. In following the path of Israel we have no choice but to close the borders, so that the potentially successful vaccination campaign does not go down the drain.

Monday, 26 April 2021
Epidemic statistics from recent days bear out the number of new infections is indeed on decline (7-day average dropped below 10,000 cases, a threshold crosses on 2 March 2021 – 31 days of incline, 25 days of decline) and positivity rate gets lower too. The continually decreasing number of occupied hospital beds also implies Poland is happily well past the peak.

Tuesday, 27 April 2021
I wait until late evening to chase a vaccination slot and miraculously find one on 4 May 2021 in northern Warsaw.
Update – around midday on Wednesday, my slot is called off. I spend 3 hours refreshing the page to find one in Radzymin on 8 May 2021.

Wednesday, 28 April 2021
Nine days ago I complained about lack of restriction easing plan. Today the government delineates one. In late May 2021 the level of restrictions will be the same as in September 2020. I wonder if new cases pick up then.

Thursday, 29 April 2021
More than 900,000 new infections reported on one day for the first time, therein 40% in India. 150,000,000 cases in total worldwide. The pandemic ends only in selected countries of the developed world which have vaccinated their populations quickly.

Friday, 30 April 2021
Obligatory vaccination against COVID-19 appears as a proposal in public discourse more and more often. The topic is highly controversial and currently illegal (since COVID-19 does not have the status of a contagious disease).

Saturday, 1 May 2021
There are countries in Europe where the third wave peaked (I define it as the day when 7-day average topped out) later than in Poland (1 April 2021):
Germany – 20 April 2021,
Croatia – 21 April 2021
The Netherlands – 23 April 2021,
Spain – 23 April 2021,
Cyprus – 24 April 2021,
Lithuania – 29 April 2021 and might be rising,
Latvia – 30 April 2021 and rising.
Those examples, along with the current story of Japan, again disprove the seasonality theory, as the season for flu-like infections is over. I shall revisit this in a fortnight.

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