Pandemic diary – weeks 62 & 63

Monday, 17 May 2021
Seven-day average number of new infection has declined by more than 90% since the peak on 1 April 2021. Thus I ought to discontinue the diary, as promised, but I will switch into monthly reporting and pledge to resume the reporting in bi-weekly intervals once the seven-day average returns above 3,000, which sadly might happen with carefree opening everything up on 29 May 2021.

Tuesday, 18 May 2021
I posit that reporting new infections should be comprehensive. The total number of newly detected case should be split into:
- fully vaccinated (at least 14 days after the last dose of a vaccine),
- partly vaccinated (at least 14 days after the first dose of two-dose vaccines, but no more than 14 days after the last dose of a two-dose vaccine),
- unvaccinated (which includes up to 14 days after the first dose of any vaccine).

Wednesday, 19 May 2021
Percentage of Poles who have registered for the vaccination or received at least one dose has risen to 48%, or by 5 percentage points within 9 days. Not reassuringly a lot, not disturbingly little. All-out assault of anti-vaxxers’ propaganda does its bit in Poland.

Thursday, 20 May 2021
Minister Dworczyk (in charge of the national vaccination programme) asks Internet users on Twitter how to promote vaccinations and combat disinformation. Commendable he taps people’s brains, but in his tweet he cries out for helplessness.

Friday, 21 May 2021
Now let’s ask ourselves how to handle anti-vaxxers. Clash with them and debunk their lies or cut them dead. My gut feeling goes for the former, but prudence tells to opt for the latter. If you respond to their twaddle, you increase its visibility in the Internet. The lack of reaction firstly means the content reaches fewer recipients, moreover, being ignored will make them feel worse.

Saturday, 22 May 2021
One-third of Poland’s entire population have received at least one dose of a vaccine. Long way before we reach herd immunity, if ever.

Sunday, 23 May 2021
Should the government consider financial rewards to persuade those who sceptical to get vaccinated. I would get the jab even if I were to pay for it, but if this is the only way to reach the herd immunity, I would reluctantly back it. Education should be key.

Monday, 24 May 2021
A three-digit number of new infections reported for the first time since 23 September 2020. Now waiting for the story to unfold – will the seven-day moving average decline below 1,000 or will loosened restrictions combined with the Indian variant lead to uptrend in new infections (look at the UK).

Tuesday, 25 May 2021
Yesterday Poland’s most worshipped football player wangled out of answering the question whether he would be vaccinated (upon taking royalties for becoming an ambassador of the National Vaccination Programme). Today he was vaccinated with the only single-dose vaccine available in Europe.

Wednesday, 26 May 2021
The government vaccination lottery, unveiled yesterday was said to be a total flop, a move unlikely to convince those who dither. Today morning, as I refreshed a page which shows free vaccination slots, few were available for mRNA vaccines in comparison to yesterday.

Thursday, 27 May 2021
Belarus ceased to report deaths in 2020, with the last figures available for June 2020 (and hinting at rising death tolls). I wonder how the country which consistently averted lockdown has fared.

Friday, 28 May 2021
There are countries in northern hemisphere which have experienced a peak (defined as maximum 7-day rolling average) of the third wave in May 2021:
- Lithuania on 3 May 2021,
- Georgia on 11 May 2021,
- Latvia on 13 May 2021,
- Japan on 15 May 2021,
- Denmark on 16 May 2021 (and neared that peak on 21 May 2021).
Worth noting in the United Kingdom new cases rose by nearly 50% from the bottom (on 5 May 2021).

Saturday, 29 May 2021
The situation has improved much enough to switch into monthly reporting (summaries to be published on each first Sunday of a month until the pandemic is over, really over, not declared to be fought over). The 7-day average number of new infections has declined below 1,000. Today begins the grand reopening of the economy, i.e. venues where the risk of catching the virus is reasonably high are fully opened. I expect that despite progress of the vaccination programme infections will bottom out around mid-June. Expect the next post on 20 June 2021, after I am back from holidays on the Polish seaside.