September heat

The recent wave of anomalous heat is the second such event in Poland in 2023, however much less impressive than New Year's Day when temperature in Warsaw topped at +18.9C, breaking a previous country-wide record by 2 Celsius degrees and setting a level which will not be beaten for years, despite the global warming. On the first day of 2023 temperature was some 15 Celsius degrees higher than long-term average for that day, while recently the positive anomaly reached "mere" 8 Celsius degrees.

Summer months of 2023 were the hottest on earth since records began, but Poland was not as badly affected by heat as southern Europe, with summer-time high in Warsaw of +34.3C reported on 15 August 2023.

Early days of September were quite normal temperature-wise. Heat came in on 6 September 2023 - from that day on day-time highs exceeded +26C. A veritable heat wave haunted Warsaw at the beginning of the second decade of September, with day-time highs above +28C on the 11th and 12th day of the month, then hitting +30.4C on 13 September 2023. It was the second-latest incidence of heat (upał, defined as maximum temperature exceeding +30C) the capital of Poland, not far from beating the record set on 14 September 1951.

Next days brought relief from the sultry air, but on 17 September 2023 and 18 September 2023 the African air struck again, though not so spectalularly, with +28C in the afternoon on the latter day.

On the two first days of the third decade of September the heat was even less intense, with temperature topping +26C and azure blue skies.

The last week of the month is to bring another spell of abnormal warmth, with day-time highs expected to reach around +25C in Warsaw.

The September heat has not been unusuaul in recent years, as I wrote commenting Michael's post. I can add on top the third decade of September also brought temperatues well above +25C - such was the case in 2003.

On 11 September 2021 temperature topped at +26.0C - not much cooler.

In 2020 heat continued much longer, with month-time high of +28.7C on 16 September.

In 2018 temperature topped above +28C on 12 September and on 20 September.

In 2016 day-time highs above +29C were recorded for 4 days in a row from 9 September to 12 September.

On 17 September 2015 temperature reached +29.9C.

From 12 September 2014 to 14 September 2014 maximum readouts exceeded +26C.

Finally, on 11 September 2012 we had heat (upał) in Warsaw (+30.4C).

The heat wave has been so prolonged that it is now more than sure September 2023 will be the warmest since records began in Poland, with positive deviation from the mean reaching even 4 Celsius degrees. In Warsaw where average temperature for September is +14.0C (1991-2020), it will be warmer than in 1892 (+16.5C), 1967 and 2016 (both +16.4C).

The Warsaw's record of the latest heat is unlikely to be beaten, but the countrywide one, set on 27 September 2012, does stand such chance to be broken. In Warsaw I see a major chance of beating the record of the highest mimimum temperature (currently +7.0C recorded in September 2006) and a tiny chance of setting a new record of maximum temperature in October (currently +25.9C set on 5 October 1966).

Since at this time of year days are shorter, evenings, nights and morning are markedly colder, September heat is easy to endure, as you can take shelter from it indoors if you cool it down at night, without having to recourse to air-conditioning. But those masses of air flowed in July, we would have suffered...

The marvellous spell of late summer definitely lifts spirits, but in fact there is no reason to be cheerful, as the global warming leaves its stamp on us again.

Post written from the smartphone, while travelling in business.

Off to Italy for 12 days tomorrow, where according to the forecasts, I am likely to experience temperatures from +20C to +26C and full sunshine over the entire stay. Photo catch-up due on 22 October 2023, while a week earlier is the election day.

A tram to Wilanów

Railway public transport, given all circumstances, is a future of modern cities. Warsaw finishes construction of its second underground line, but in the recent quarters focused much on developing a network of overground rail connections. One of such links is the tram track running to the posh district of Wilanów.

Frankly speaking, I have never understood why the location was so desirable among the capital’s middle class. The estate is reasonably good-looking, however buildings are too close to one another and the commute to the city centre, regardless of means of transport used, takes currently around an hour. For a comparison, a door-to-door journey to Rondo Dmowskiego from my dwelling takes some 35 minutes.

Nevertheless, the classy housing estate occupies swathes of land which 30 years ago were endless meadows. Needless to say infrastructure lagged behind residential developments. The city authorities for years had promised a tram connection and a few quarters ago the plans began turning into reality.

On 11 September, having knocked off relatively early (i.e. not doing overtime) I jumped on my bike and cycled to the neighbouring district to inspect the progress of work. As I was leaving home, temperature was still above +25C. More on the remarkable September heat next week.

Ursynów has great cycling infrastructure, so without having to use a pavement nor a road, I reach the intersection of al. Rzecz-pospolitej and ul. Branickiego. Preparatory works have begun here, but I see no track of a future terminues, which most likely will be located next to Medicover hospital at the southern end of al. Rzeczpospolitej.

For the period of construction, al. Rzecz-pospolitej has lost the status of a dual carriageway and has been narrowed to one lane in each direction. One can make out tram tracks will run between the southbound and the northbound road.

Somewhat closer to al. Wilanowska, there are sections where tracks have been already laid. Note the façade of a typical residential building, with shops on ground level. Currently, Wilanów is virtually self-sufficient, with facilities meeting needs of the upper-middle class located next to the district’s throughfares.

I pass the dug-up intersection of al. Wilanowska and ul. Sobieskiego, glad I do not have to cross this area regularly. Ul. Sobieskiego, once having three lanes in each direction, then two regular lanes and a bus lane, currently has only one lane per direction. Oddly enough during late rush hour on a school day the traffic jams were not heavy, while traffic on a cycling path running parallel to the street was quite dense.

Approaching ul. Bonifacego in Stegny, I realise the progress of works is very uneven and wonder what is behind the difference in pace of construction on different sections. Note a family in front of me – good to see parents teach children to move in a healthy and environment-friendly manner.

The last shot taken from the intersection of ul. Sobieskiego and ul. Bonifacego. Staring at the skyline of Warsaw’s skyscrapers and a pedestrian footpath above ul. Sobieskiego. Warsaw slowly gives up on them and on underground passages, as convenience of motorists is no longer a priority. The elderly, disabled, parents with prams – they should soon have the obstacles in moving around removed altogether.

Setting the sliders

Inspired by a cycle of eight "Setting the sliders" notes dated March 2011, by Michael.

Life is an endless quest for a balance. As part of the nature, humans naturally search for it. The most popular type of balance these days is the work-life balance, being a theoretical response to ruthless corporations exploiting their staff much longer than during customary nine-to-five cycles. The corporations claim to foster the work-life balance, but since their declarations are hollow, the EU institutions have attempted to regulate it. Then the corporations will aim to circumvent those laws. Well, it is a topic for a separate post...

In this one I struggle to find trade-offs in manifold areas of life.

Getting involved in a romantic relationship, one gives up on a part of their independence. Being with some means minding their feelings and needs and undertaking commitments towards a life companion. This takes striving, but should not take bending over backwards. People pair up since benefits of being together outweigh nuisances of making concessions. I believe one should strike a balance between their autonomy as an individual and some indispensable sacrifices.

A part of turning an adult is taking responsibility for one's deeds and life. Psychologists posit those contraventing such scheme are afflicted by Peter Pan syndrome, attributed usually to males who refuse to grow up and farewell the carefree days of childhood. For me being responsible is a crucial part of adulthood and proves a man's maturity. Nevertheless, carefree moments ought to be pursued in life and cherished, bearing in mind life is not a bed of roses.

The above brings to mind the idiom "business before pleasure", which sadly has no equivalent in Polish. As a child, not prompted by my parents, after coming from school I firstly did my homework and then played. An adult life involves duties and doing them with humility is a part of our existence. With affluence, people tend to work more to shift the most mundane duties to others. The growing popularity of farming out house cleaning or ordering food catering boxes instead of cooking confirms such trend. But is it just convenience and making use of one's money to enhance the comfort of life, or... shunning duties?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail" - some say. Preparing involves planning and planning clashes with spontainety. Spontainety symbolises carefree life, lack of limitations and boundaries. Should we give on spotainety altogether? Do not dare to do so, don't let your daily routine underwhelm you, let in the element of thrill to your life, but whatever you do, do it prudently and mind the outcome.

Unless your ancestors were wealthy and thrifty, you have to work to earn a livelihood. Your wage is usually a combination of education, skills, luck, but not only. A correlation between how hard you work and financial gains maybe is not very strong, yet apparently positive. Having spent over 13 years in the corporate reality, I observe the propensity to work harder than others declines with age. This is perfectly in line with the curve of earnings, increasing with years of experience, rising affluence (a marginal utility of each next unit of income is lower), human body's lower tolerance for intensive working, but particularly with priorities changing over lifetime. The more you have accumulated, the more you cherish the time spent with family, friends, physical activity or fostering hobbies.

If you earn little, most likely your have to watch every penny before spending and barely make ends meet. When your income rises, you might spend more, but not necessarily have to. Day-to-day survival gives way to planning and long-term goals. One has to make a choice what portion on the current income to consume and how much to aside for the future and with what purpose in mind. Saving for the very sake of saving and spending for a very sake of spending are both no good. Both spending and saving (which means not just putting aside money, but looking for ways for paying less for something) deserve a wise, emotion-free approach.

While interacting with other humans one makes mistakes. A noble man can admit their mistakes and, if possible, make up for them. A noble man's trait is modesty too. Boasting of one's accomplishments outside the corporate world is not the most commendable method of underlining one's presence. A prudent man also knows their limitations and does not overestimate their skills. Humility then is a great virtue I believe, the one which helps one attain long-term goals.

Lofty ideas of a perfect world are cruelly confronted with imperfect reality. Life involves compromising, yet it should have some limits, with moral principals (universal or subjective) setting boundary of how far can we give up on ideal solutions we long for. Not every price is worth paying, but freeriding as sneaking through life without effort is not worthwhile too.

No extreme is good. Keep it in mind when making your daily choices, but also when going to the polls in five weeks...

Pre-election gloom

As the end of the current parliament term draws near, I realise Poles have endured nearly 8 years of PiS in power. I also realise the period covers almost a half of my formal adulthood. As they were winning the election in October 2015, I was 27, single, rank-and-file analyst and still lived with my parents in Nowa Iwiczna. As of now I am in the third serious relationship since then, after two promotions, residing in my own flat in Ursynów – basically except for being 8 years older, I seem better off. A pity in many realms Poland is worse off or made steps back in development.

In early years of PiS in power people would take to the streets in masses to stand up for democratic principles. With time, as the marches did not undermine the unfettered authority of the ruling party, the intensity of street demonstrations faded. There were some spurts, as the protest against rigorous pro-life law changes in October 2020, a stay-in-the-EU march in October 2021 – which I both attended. This year I did not take part in the opposition’s march on 4 June (I was in Wisła) and on account of holidaying in Italy I will not join the crowds on the streets of Warsaw on 1 October, two weeks before the election.

Fatigue is a natural form of adjustment to how my country is being slowly demolished. Just like with any disruptive situation – the first reaction is a shock (recall the examples of COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 or the invasion to Ukraine in February 2022) then the public get accustomed to what is going on, event if this involves hundreds of deaths daily. PiS in power does not kill humans, but in most Poles it eradicated the hope that the country might be run in a better way.

The current polls indicate PiS is going to win the election, but very few surveys give the party a majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament. The three parties of the democratic opposition, provided they all (hopefully) pass the parliament entry threshold, are also unlikely to get the majority. This means Konfederacja, the far-right-wind freak grouping currently rising to become the third player in the Polish politics, will be in a position to tip the scales during the key votes in the parliament. As Konfederosja declares to be an anti-systemic creature, it currently does not intend to enter a coalition with anyone, which looms a post-election stand-off and a possibility of next parliamentary election called in early 2024.

This year the election will be accompanied by a ludicrous referendum, which actually will be a barometer of support to the current government. As the opposition urges its electorate to boycott the plebiscite by refusing the to take the referendum card (otherwise a voter boosts turnout), the vote will effectively not be confidential. Since 50% turnout will not be achieved, I advise if opposition’s voters fear reactions of the communities in provincial polling stations, they should take the referendum cards – to cast a vote in line with one’s conscience is more important that boycotting the plebiscite.

The election will also not be equal. Numbers of lower house deputies elected from specific constituencies has not been revised since 2011. Over that time the number of voters in cities increased, so they are under-represented in the lower house, while in provincial Poland – decreased. This might mean a few more seats for PiS, much more popular far from big cities. The fix for it for a voters from Warsaw will be to pick up a certificate entitling to vote anywhere in Poland, not just in your local polling station. So on 15 October quite probably I will not be proudly boosting the turnout in Ursynów, but will venture to a place where my vote will have a bigger weight than I Warsaw.

Those more involved might become scrutineers, overseeing the voting and vote counting in polling stations.

The campaign is going to kick off for good after this weekend, with the end of school holidays. I fear it will be predictable, lacklustre and full of below-the-belt blows dealt by the ruling party. I suppose the outcome might be impacted by an event on the home straight, less than a week before the vote. I also keep fingers crossed for bad weather. In provincial Poland fewer people might take the trouble to go to polling stations, while inhabitants of big cities will not venture beyond town to make use of the last gasps of late summer and will not risk skipping their civic duty.