Where is the war heading?

Two events in world politics from November have passed so far unnoticed on PES. I did not bother to comment on the victory of the narcistic redneck in the US presidential election. Then came the scheduled event, to my positive surprise, echoing in the media – 19 November 2024 was the 1,000th day of the invasion to Ukraine. Those forgetful are now reminded the operation was planned to last three days and end up in installing a puppet government in Kyiv.

Nearly three years after those days Russia controls roughly 20% of the Ukraine’s territory and is slowly progressing. Faced with an imminent power handover, the democratic administration in the US have resolved to allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia with weapons delivered by them. This seemed a game changer, but in fact solidifies a stall in the conflict.

Time before the redneck and his cronies takes over is running out. He intends to freeze the warfare, plausibly by leaving territories held by occupiers within their borders. For Russia it means some areas in the Kursk region would stay under Ukraine’s control. If such scenario is the most likely, Ukraine should strive to take over an even bigger territory of Russia, as this decreases odds of Russians agreeing on warfare freezing.

Shortly commenting on the Trump’s victory – I hope once he is sworn in, he will be less unpredictable than he appeared in the campaign and he will be surrounded by wise advisors holding back his silly conceptions. Besides, Europe must act now, as if it was left to its own devices, hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.