S7 expressway – construction update

Those awaiting the annual winter timeline have to carry on patiently until 1 May 2022. Looking at the weather in April 2022, I have resolved to include the statistics for the entire month in my records. Besides, where is a little chance for the last gasp of winter in the coming days.

But last Thursday, when temperature topped above +21C, I made the most of the blast of spring, knocked off at 4:00 p.m. and cycled south of Warsaw to inspect the progress of S7 construction, on so-called section A, between Warszawa Południe and Lesznowola junctions.

The road is scheduled to be opened for traffic in October 2022 and judging by the current progress of works, the deadline is within reach. To the right – the first stop, a on service road (closed for traffic) running parallel to the expressway, south of ul. Baletowa. Sound barriers (ugly, grey concrete) are up, grass has been sown (or laid) on the slopes of viaducts carrying S7.

The first junction south of Warszawa Południe, i.e. Zamienie has been opened for the local traffic some time ago. Sadly, the new roads are anything, but cyclist-friendly and motorists do not give a damn about the 40 kmph speed limit. Hence I illegally trespassed into slip roads, to see how the works were going (and indeed builders toiled away).

I thought I would cycle through rural areas of Zamienie, along terraced houses, but soon I ran across this estate of block of flats. I hold the view if one decides to move to the distant outskirts of a city, one trades drawbacks of living in a block of flat for other drawbacks and for merit of living in a house with a garden. Asking prices of flats on Zielone Zamienie housing estate begin from 6,865 zlotys per square metre.

I thought underground garages have become a standard in new, civilised developments. Car are parked underground (with all benefits of convenience and protection from the elements of weather), while spaces around buildings are green areas which serve as leisure spaces for residences. Not in Zielone Zamienie premises – here the greenery had to give way to concrete car parks which surround the buildings from all sides.

Yes, it was supposed to be about the S7 construction, but instead of heading towards a viaduct above S7, my curiosity told me to cycle down ul. Pionowa in Nowa Wola. A yet another example of an estate built in the middle of nowhere. I hope at least the local dwellers have a grocery shop in the area. Do not ask where the nearest public transport stop is (I believe the correct answer is “around 2 miles / 3 kilometres from there”).

A short stopover in my trip (31 kilometres being the longest ride this year) by a pond in Nowa Wola. Behind it, a classic volunteer firemen’s station (remiza Ochotniczej Straży Pożarnej), with a classic watch tower. The rural area has its charm, felt most a warm spring late afternoon.

Having pedalled south, I (again illegally) got into a viaduct which will one day carry Droga Wojewódzka 721 dual carriageway over the S7. Good they have built a full junction, a pity is will be useless for years ahead. Here, looking south, S7 approaching Lesznowola junction. The progress of works indicates opening the section in October is utterly doable.

A snap looking north, from basically the same spot. The junction with DW 721 has taken shape and after the S7 is opened, will become a monument of dismal coordination of public tenders in Poland.

The last shot comes from a viaduct carrying a new road between Zamienie and Zgorzała or Nowa Wola. Needless to say, I trespassed the area illegally. Except for looking at the expressway and the service road, note the cranes in Zamienie which turn the village into a town with tens of blocks of flats and the grey detached house west of S7. Who the hell has decided to settle down so close to the noise and fumes from the fast traffic?

S7 will not give me much improvement. It may offer an alternative to ul. Puławska if I drive to my parents (no traffic lights along the way mean driving at a steady speed and lower fuel consumption if I drive at reasonable 90 – 100 kmph). To Kraków I go by train, trips to other places in Poland are infrequent (no more than 3 times a year). I hope once S7 takes the strain from ul. Puławska, public transport is finally given priority on it (after opening the tunnel beneath Ursynów as part of S2 expressway and setting up bus lanes in Dolinka Służewiecka, traffic jams on the latter and not worse than with one lane for passenger cars more, but without the tunnel).

Pandemic diary – weeks 107 & 108

Monday, 28 March 2022
Isolation, quarantine and mask-wearing obligation indoors (except for health care outposts) are lifted. In my opinion, it is too early to say the pandemic is over and COVID-19 should be treated like a flu, especially if countries which have followed that strategy are paying the price.

Tuesday, 29 March 2022
I visit Lidl in the morning and the shopping mall in Janki in the evening. Around one-fourth of people, including me, continue to wear masks. It takes quite little effort, but gives reasonable protection – until the level of new infections declines to three digits per day, I will carry on covering my mouth and nose in public indoor spaces.

Wednesday, 30 March 2022
The number of hospital beds occupied by COVID-19 patients in Poland drops below 5,000, for the first time since 24 October 2021.

Thursday, 31 March 2022
The customary (and the last) month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Friday, 1 April 2022
On 5 March 2022 I predicted the total number of detected cases in Poland today would reach 6,000,000. I got it wrong by 33,030 cases. With poorer access to tests and the epidemic officially called off by politicians I refrain from predicting when the seventh million is reached.
The 7-day average of new infections in Poland falls below 5,000, for the first time since 25 October 2021.

Saturday, 2 April 2022
The Polish Ministry of Health changes reporting methodology. Data on antigen testing and hospitalisations will be reported in weekly intervals. For some time new infections and deaths will be reported daily. Officially the pandemic draws to a close, but does the virus know it?

Sunday, 3 April 2022
Thanks to restricted access to testing, new infections in Poland drop by 84% week-on-week. Jaw drops open.

Monday, 4 April 2022
My workmates from the sales team went on an off-site integration event last week. Two-third have tested positive for COVID-19. Was the minister wrong, when claiming the pandemic was over?

Tuesday, 5 April 2022
The 7-day average of new infections in Poland falls below 3,000, for the first time since 19 October 2021.

Wednesday, 6 April 2022
Vaccinations for adults are not just against COVID-19. Today I got voluntarily a self-paid shot of Boostrix Polio vaccine.

Thursday, 7 April 2022
The 7-day average of new infections in Poland falls below 2,000, for the first time since 13 October 2021. Given Poland actually nearly ceased to carry out testing, hospitalisations reported weekly and excess deaths might become the only measure of the (bygone) pandemic.

Friday, 8 April 2022
The 7-day average number of deaths in Poland declines below 50. Good news!

Saturday, 9 April 2022
While in Poland COVID-19 has been called off, worth noting there are countries in Europe which have seen all-time high of new infections in the second half of March:
- Finland on 16 March,
- Austria, on 18 March,
- Germany, on 24 March,
- Cyprus on 30 March.

Love-life-wise catch-up

I think I last wrote a post dealing with my relationship only in January 2021, after my ex-girlfriend and I broke up for the first time, but not for good. Since then we had our ups and downs, with next “reversed” break-ups in June and August. We endured better and worse days, but it all was going downhill since that time. Eventually, in mid-December we consensually resolved to give it a rest. Prospects were anything, but bright, the burden to carry on our backs was too heavy for both of us.

I did not feel the need to mention it on the blog at that time. The end of the relationship was not a shock, but was a bit of relief. The year-end period at work was busy, Szlachetna Paczka final weekend was just past; I needed to cool down. I knew the break-up was a matter of time and began getting over it well ahead of the actual goodbye. Thus the transition into being a “single” was astonishingly smooth.

More than three months have passed since that moment and believe I can examine the reasons why the relationship had fallen apart. We both talked about it and even agreed it was just meant to fall apart.

My ex-girlfriend for many months before the break-up lacked the feeling of certainty. It held her back from making a step forward, i.e. agreeing to live with me under one roof. When in October I asked her how she would react if I popped a question, she said she would turn it down.

Her lack of conviction towards the relationship with me manifested itself in moodiness, emotional instability and treating me on a verge of emotional violence, something I confess to have put up with for too long.

Before she starts over something new with someone else, she will need to learn that a compromise is essential in a relationship. Sadly, she did not accept me entirely the way I was, but tried to model me on her image of an ideal man.

Given such bitter circumstances, no wonder I got over it reasonably quickly. As we were breaking up, we agreed we would remain friends. Since none of us hurt badly nor harmed the other one, this seemed reasonable, yet I was doing it against myself, as I do not believe in life after love. Time has partly proven me right. A month ago during a casual conversation all of a sudden we both began to dig up the dirt from the past and ended up exchanging grudges against each other.

More than two weeks ago, while volunteering to aid Ukrainians I accidentally met a girl (a fellow volunteer). I thought for a while I would stay emotionally hollow. It has not worked out and I was rejected in a nasty way, but merely finding out there are such righteous, sensitive and kind-hearted people is spirit-lifting.  Hadn't I tried, I would have attained nothing, but with the outcome at least I will not wonder would would have been if...

The moment I met her coincided with a return to Tinder, which is a more shitty area than it was two years ago. More on this in some time. So far no points scored in the application.

Pandemic diary – weeks 105 & 106

Monday, 14 March 2022
In Warsaw first week-on-week increase in new cases since 28 January (peak of the omicron wave). One swallow does not make a summer, but the trend is to be observed.

Tuesday, 15 March 2022
Looking at statistics of new infections, the least affected region in Poland has been for a while Podkarpackie province, where less than 1 citizen in 10,000 is tested positive daily and positivity rate declined below 5%. Looks like a natural herd immunity.

Wednesday, 16 March 2022
New infections in Poland nudge up by 0.5%, still this is an outlier in a slight downward trend

Thursday, 17 March 2022
In South Korea 1 in 83 citizens tested positive. I thought the record would not be broken.

Friday, 18 March 2022
China sees the biggest COVID-19 outbreak since early 2020. The country follows zero-covid policy, hence two thousand cases per day bring the entire regions to a halt. Since strict lockdowns involve also factory closures, supply chain disruptions are expected.

Saturday, 19 March 2022
I belatedly spot a new forecast by MOCOS, whose quants foresee:
- a peak of new infections during the next wave on 1 April (7-day average of 18,320)
- deaths bottoming out at 70 on 30 March,
- hospitalisations bottoming out at 3,846 on 29 March.

Sunday, 20 March 2022
As I continue my volunteering, delivering packages for several spots collecting clothes, food and other stuff for Ukrainian refugees, I see an absolute loosening of rules, especially with respect of face covering. Only decent immunisation, either vaccine-induced or natural, prevents new infections from rising.

Monday, 21 March 2022
Vaccine uptake reporting on regional level is discontinued. Given waning post-vaccination immunity, it actually makes. For the record, the biggest percentage of population vaccinated with at least one dose on that day was in:
1. Wronki (81.21%),
2. Ustronie Morskie (80.98%),
3. Raszyn (80.06%),
4. Podkowa Leśna (79.06%),
5. Warsaw (77.73%).

Tuesday, 22 March 2022
For that day I predicted 500 million infections worldwide. Happily, I underestimated it by around 26 million.
The 7-day average of new infections declines below 10,000, where it last was on 5 November 2021. Once the figure declines below 3,800, i.e. below 1 in 10,000 citizens tested positive daily. Then I will switch back into monthly reporting (hopefully the sixth wave does not come over).

Wednesday, 23 March 2022
The United States is the first country in the world to report a round 1,000,000 of deaths due to COVID-19. In practice it is more than sure India during its delta wave in late April 2021 recorded a few million deceases, judging by excess mortality reported.

Thursday, 24 March 2022
The 7-day average of new deaths decreases below 100 in Poland. The figure was last that good on 5 November 2021. Hope it continues to decline!

Friday, 25 March 2022
The sideways trend of new infections, visible last week, has gone into a decline again. I hope it continues to go down, but wonder for how long.

Saturday, 26 March 2022
I wonder if BA.2 prompts China (and other Asian countries) to back out of the zero-covid policy. Those outbreaks cannot be contained without huge economic losses.

The war in Ukraine – implications for the Polish economy

Inevitably, the Russian invasion into the Ukraine, even if hopefully the warfare stays beyond Poland’s border, has and will have impact on our lives. While keeping fingers crossed for the Ukraine’s victory over the heinous aggressor, I am trying to sum up what the conflict means for my country’s economy. As the course of events is difficult to predict, I shall focus on short-term effects, triggered by what has happened so far and split my analysis into eight areas.

1. The labour market.
Currently two sectors face a scarcity of workforce, namely construction and transport which both employ many Ukrainian male workers, some of who have decided to return to their homeland to take up arms. The flow of Ukrainians in productive age into Poland in turn comprises mostly of women (men aged 18-60 are not allowed to leave Ukraine, with some exceptions). They are willing to find a job, yet nobody knows how long the situation will persist and therefore how many of them will come up with supply of work. Quite many of the refugees surely hope the war ends soon and they will be able to return to their homes.

2. The housing market
The inflow of several hundred thousand Ukrainians to Poland (I count out those in transit) trigger a rising demand for flats for rent. The supply of dwellings is constantly dwindling, with many Ukrainians affording to rent flats at market rates. Vacancy rate is going to go down, prices have reportedly nudged up. Poles looking for a place to rent have it now uphill, but with some landlords unwilling to let their spaces to Ukrainians, everyone will find a roof over their head. I hold back from foreseeing a trend in property prices, as there are several other factors which will impact them, with interest rates, rising costs of living and mounting construction costs coming to the fore as price-shapers.

3. The exchange rate
I believe unless something unexpected happens, financial markets are already past the shock phase, though volatility remains high. The Polish currency after hitting levels unseen since two decades (or never seen) is slowly appreciating, but I suppose it will level off at above 4.50 (EUR/PLN) and 4.00 (USD/PLN).

4. Inflation
Given that cutting down on deliveries of commodities from Russia has triggered a negative persistent supply shock and that wheat yields might be even 25% lower, which is bound to bring up food prices, we need to brace for a double-digit inflation lasting for over a year, until the base effect begins to work (alternatively we might fall into a spiralling inflation, bring it under control might be painful).

5. Government finances
Given that accepting refugees from Ukrainians and providing them with humanitarian aid will be shifted from citizens and NGOs to the central and local governments, the budget deficit is likely to rise. What the government definitely needs to do is to arrange a scheme of covering those expenses by the European Union. The costs of helping Ukrainians should be shared equitably, while Poland, by dint of being geographically on the frontline, will be one of the main beneficiary of those funds. Solidarity within the EU must manifest itself in that area.

6. Foreign trade
Here I expect little to happen – I hope once Ukraine emerges victoriously from the war, it will become one of Poland’s main trade partners. The trade with Russia and Belarus, except for commodities, used to be quite marginal and those engaging in it were accepting high political risks. The risks have materialised, risk-takers have to lick wounds. I have no sympathy for them.

7. Consumer habits
Over the recent weeks many households have spent lots of money on humanitarian aid to Ukrainians. They have also realised living costs are bound to go up and austerity might set in. I predict consumers will be less reckless in spending and will think twice before giving away money. With the rising costs of dwelling upkeep, transport and food, discretionary spending is likely to go down.

8. Getting greener
The positive side effect of the war will be acceleration of efforts to decrease the reliance on fossil fuels. In the short run a good time to decrease the temperature inside your house, to give up on driving unless really necessary (I can boast of driving merely 294 kilometres since my last visit to the petrol station on 12 February when I fuelled up my car’s tank to the full, paying mere PLN 5.18 per litre).

Pandemic diary – weeks 103 & 104

Monday, 28 February 2022
The 7-day average of new infections declines below 15,000. If it continues to go on like this, by the end of the second decade of March it will fall below 10,000.
The customary month-end report of the sluggish pace of vaccinations in Poland.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Given that the vaccination programme has nearly come to a standstill, is there any point in reporting its progress monthly anymore?

Tuesday, 1 March 2022
For that day, MOCOS forecast predicted that 7-day average of new infection would decline below 10,000. In practice, it reaches almost 14,000.

Wednesday, 2 March 2022
The 7-day average number of new deaths falls below 200. Hope the trend continues.

Thursday, 3 March 2022
The number of officially registered deaths caused by COVID-19 worldwide hits 6,000,000. I suppose a million more people die by 28 July 2022.

Friday, 4 March 2022
While the war is the only topic hitting the headlines, the second anniversary of first infection reported in Poland passes unnoticed. A year ago it was the topic of the day.

Saturday, 5 March 2022
On 3 February 2022 I predicted on that day the total number of reported cases in Poland would reach 6,000,000. Fortunately, I got it wrong, by 265,959. Now I bet the six million figure will be hit on 1 April 2022 (the first anniversary of the alpha wave peak last spring).
The number of hospitalisations on account of COVID-19 in Poland declines below 10,000, for the first time since 7 November 2021. Good news!

Sunday, 6 March 2022
As everybody is focused on the war in Ukraine, the pandemic is no longer a headline topic, but the virus does not let up during the warfare. Large gatherings might be conducive to spreading the virus.

Monday, 7 March 2022
After a noticeable decline in several countries in the second half of February, infections have picked up in many countries, but in some, such as the Netherlands or Austria, the incline is quite steep.

Tuesday, 8 March 2022
New infections in Poland rise week-on-week (by 1.3%) for the first time since nearly six weeks. With hindsight it will turn out it is just a one-off event, but the pace of decline gets very slow.

Wednesday, 9 March 2022
Torwar hall in Warsaw, being one of the biggest refugee shelters in Warsaw, becomes a hotbed of COVID-19, but as volunteers claim, this is just the peak of the iceberg, since people staying there are afflicted by several other diseases, which combined with the virus might get deadly. I fear a humanitarian disaster.

Thursday, 10 March 2022
In Austria the recent uptick send the level of new infections (7-day average) to all-time high. Too early to forget about COVID-19. We need to keep an eye on hospital admissions and deaths.

Friday, 11 March 2022
For me 11 March 2020, the day my employer ordered everyone to work from home and countrywide school closure was announced, marked the beginning of the pandemic. The second anniversary is barely noticed because of the war. Two years ago nobody expected it to last so long. Same might be with the warfare.

Saturday, 12 March 2022
The positivity rate has declined to around 15% - 18% in recent days, which is half of the figure witnessed in late January and early February, which implies new inflections have fallen by some 90% since the peak. Reassuringly?

Wartime memories – first ten days

For some time the concept of this blog has been to save moment for posterity, therefore I have resolved to take down some notes on how the first ten days of Putin’s invasion looked from my perspective. It is not going to be a coverage of the military conflict which can be found in the media anyway. It will be just a personal record of my thoughts, musings and observations, so that one day I can revisit it and bring days the memories of dismal days which hopefully become the history soon, with a fortunate outcome.

 

Day 1 – Thursday, 24 February 2022

My phone shut down before 3 a.m. I deliberately have not left it on a charger overnight. I decide to charge it up in the morning. I get up at 5:30 a.m., eat a small breakfast and before setting off to the swimming pool, I connect the charger and switch the phone on. I check the recent posts on Twitter. I know it has begun.

After swimming I want to take a shower. For no apparent reason it does not flow. My skin stinks with chlorine, but I head home. Warsaw carries on.

Back home I learn the worst-case scenario of full-scale invasion has materialised.

A hard day at work begins. Nobody calls off business as usual due to the cruel attack on the Poland’s neighbour. Never in my lifetime has the warfare been so close to where I live. I find it hard to focus on work, like all the workmates. As we talk, it turns out most of us were hoping Putin would hold his horses. It was naïve, he is a ruthless psychopath, ready to scorch the earth to bring in his visions. Analogies between Germany after WW1 and Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union are so vivid.

As the sunset draws, panic-mongers begin to queue up to petrol stations. Those idiots firstly send money to Putin, secondly contribute to self-fulfilling prophecy that petrol stations might run out of fuel.

As the evening comes up, I feel exhausted. Partly because of tough 10 hours at work, partly because I fear how the story unfolds. The tsar is unpredictable.

 

Day 2 – Friday, 25 February 2022

With the invasion it became clear that accounts which used to spread pro-pandemic and anti-vaccine disinformation have now become pro-kremlin and ant-Ukrainian overt trolls.

The VPN in my company notebook keeps disconnecting itself for the second day in a row. A coincidence?

In the evening I team up with my mates from Szlachetna Paczka. I devise a plan of setting up “starter kits” for refugee families which would settle down locally. My mates immediately agree to join, so I let the mayor of Ursynów know about our initiative. He promises to keep us informed.

 

Day 3 – Saturday, 26 February 2022

In the morning I walk to the Lidl shop next door and buy two bags of hygiene materials and cosmetics (Rexona and Dove away from my basket), pack the stuff into a cardboard box and drop it to a local collection point. I ask to hand it over to the Ukrainian side of the borders, where it would be more necessary than in Poland.

If I could, I would send them weapons! But more and more countries declare such form of support to Ukraine, which is reassuring.

The spurt of Poles rushing to help Ukraine is spirit-lifting, but will it be long-lasting? It will be a marathon, not a sprint.

When I think of sanctions levied to Russia by the civilised world, I believe the main reason for some countries’ reluctance towards them is the cost of financial isolation. Yes, we have to pay the price for keeping Russia at bay, but the lost profits now are a good investment is the payoff is the absence of Russian tanks in the territory of Poland.

Americans urge their citizens to leave Belarus immediately. They are in the know again.

I pop by to some petrol stations and learn temporary shortages of fuel are a fact. Not only those who panic are to blame for it. Several people take trips in their private cars to the Ukrainian border and fuel up their vehicles in advance, thus boosting demand for fuel (and sending money partly to Putin’s pocket). The aid should be better co-ordinated, I believe.

 

Day 4 – Sunday, 27 February 2022

In the morning my father and I drop my mum off to the cardiac hospital in Anin for a planned treatment (ablation) for a few days. I realise she is stressed-out, not only by the planned surgery, but also since she knows she will be sorry for Ukrainian personnel working there. Admittedly, the willingness to keep company to my mother dragged me away from the involvement in aid to Ukrainians this weekend. But given the social response, I do not need to feel guilty.

In the fourth day of war, Ukraine is doing definitely better than expected, with Ukrainians proving not only bravery, but also shrewdness.

After a few days of silence, Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons. In his paranoia, he is capable of turning large swathes of land into nuclear deserts.

Freezing Russian central bank’s assets will be more painful than exclusion of most of the country’s commercial banks from SWIFT payment system. I fear how markets react tomorrow.

 

Day 5 – Monday, 28 February 2022

In a conversation with my workmates I strongly posit the only way out would be to kill Putin. Easier said than done. He is protected too well to make an assassination doable for a foreign intelligence agent, but Putin will not be alive for long. Irate oligarchs or infuriated military officer might be the ones to liquidate him.

My Facebook account gets restricted on account of posting a derogatory film mocking at Putin. The blockade is imposed by an algorithm, hence I file a complaint. Thus I become a passive user of the platform.

At work there is no major turmoil. For many years lending to companies involved in doing business in Russia was an excessive risk to my employer. Today the restraint pays off.

Boycotting goods with bar codes starting from “4 60”? Noble, yet you will find few of them in the shops, as Russia manufactures little. If you want to spite Putin, turn off the radiator in your dwelling and walk, cycle or take public transport whenever possible. Besides, time to boycott Polish companies which carry on doing business in Russia.

This is the first day of actual carnage of civilians in that war. Shelling residential estates in Kharkiv and shooting civilians on the city’s streets bear out Russians are barbarians. This is genocide.

Besides, conceivably the premises near the Polish-Ukrainian border might be attacked by Russian aircrafts.

 

Day 6 – Tuesday, 1 March 2022

Putin has done what no man has not done for decades. He messed with nearly everybody across the world and brought so many united against him.

My Facebook account gets unlocked after a verification by a human.

There is evidence Russia used vacuum bombs in Ukraine, so far not against civilians. Such weapons are prohibited by conventions and kill even people hiding in shelters.

Russian trolls work at full blast in the Polish Internet to sling muck at refugees from Ukraine. Poland must not fall victim of disinformation!

 

Day 7 – Wednesday, 2 March 2022

I learn with antidepressants I still take, though in lower doses, I cannot be a blood donor, while blood is what Ukrainian hospital need to rescue the injured soldiers.

My mother’s ablation is called off or rather put off until Friday. She is stressed-out and it also affects me. Her health is a yet another reason for concern to me.

In the neighbourhood I spot three cars on UA number plates. Glad somebody has played host to them. I admire people who let Ukrainians stay at their homes. I am afraid that would be beyond my comfort zone. Besides, such accommodation might last months.

 

Day 8 – Thursday, 3 March 2022

A week into the war, most people have shaken off the shock and are slowly coming to terms with the new reality, meaning the war is waged just across the border. With time indifference will grow.

I no longer take it for granted the war does not spill into Poland. The membership into NATO might scare off Russia, but the attach on the Treaty will bring the world on the brink of the nuclear war. I sadly have very little impact on the course of events, hence I convince myself not to worry in advance.

Three cars on UA number plates parked outside my block of flats. Will there be many more? Or is it just a stopover?

Brent oil price reaches nearly 120 USD per barrel, while USD/PLN trades around 4.30. I see double-digit inflation coming to Poland and the threat of stagflation to the whole civilised world. The least civilised part of its will be back into the misery of late 1980s.

 

Day 9 – Friday, 4 March 2022

Wake up to the news Russian missiles nearly missed the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe. Given the lack of precision of the Russian obsolete and run-down military stuff, I suppose we were lucky to have averted a nuclear disaster. Have the invaders lost control or are they trying to blackmail the civilised world?

I somewhat fear the aggressor might attack the Polish-Ukrainian border and civilians aiding there. With the uncivilised enemy, everything is conceivable.

NATO keeps holding back from getting involved in the conflict. I believe the fear of WW3 is the key reason for their restraint. Hoping their words about getting prepared for the worst-case scenario are not just hollow declarations.

In the afternoon my mother has her ablation. Preliminarily doctors say the treatment is successful.

 

Day 10 – Saturday, 5 March 2022

So far over 700,000 (exact numbers vary depending on source) refugees from Ukraine crossed the border with Poland. Will they be able to returns to their homes and rebuild their country soon? Will Poles exhibit so much hospitality towards them as they do these days? Will European Union help Poland take the burden of allocating refugees across the member states? Are the just past the first wave of migrants? Is it just the beginning? So many questions remain unanswered.

Helping Ukrainians will be a marathon, not a sprint, while people who rush to aid are sadly likely to run out of energy and resources far too soon. I recall the beginnings of the pandemic, the spurt of responsibility and solidarity which gave way to fatigue and indifference several weeks later.

If this all is hopefully over, there will come the time to bring to account those who advocated Russia recently. The first to be cracked down on will be the deputies of Konfederusja, mentally ill Grzegorz Braun and eccentric nutter Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Support for the far-right party declined below 5%. Hope they won’t make it to the parliament in 2023.