October 2025 - weather recap

Seemingly, October 2025 in Warsaw appeared to be a cold and depressingly autumnal one. In fact, temperature-wise it has been perfectly normal, with mean temperature of +8.7C, exactly at the par with long-term (1991-2020) average. Perception of many has been shaped by a series of eight warm Octobers in a row between 2017 and 2024, with mean monthly temperatures ranging from +9.6C (2021) to +11.3C (2019).

The recent October was indeed a rainy one, with monthly rainfall totalling to 68.7 millimetres, vs. long-term average precipitation of 40.2 millimetres The blessed rain (171% of long-term average) has been a drop in the ocean in terms of solving the problem of drought, but we are keeping fingers crossed for next wet months, preferably for a snowy winter. Of note are thunderstorms with heavy, yet short downpours which smashed Warsaw on 26 October 2025 and 30 October 2025. Such phenomena happen very rarely at this time of year.

As the October was rainy and cloudy, temperature fluctuations were low, hence cold afternoons were offset by warm nights and mornings.

We had two frosty days in October (note the absence of sub-zero temperatures in 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024), with the first frost being the earliest since 2001. Month-time low of -1.2C was measured on 3 October 2025. The first days of the month were some 5 Celsius degrees colder than long-term average for those specific days.

Month-time high of +18.9C was reported on 23 October 2025, during a short spell of golden autumn. It was the first time since 2010 when the maximum temperature in October was lower than +20C.

Forecasters claim early November will be making up for the lack of above-average temperatures in October, but what is seen in the weather predictions by no means extraordinary for this time of year. In the benchmark period of 1991-2020, the average November's highest temperature stood at +14.8C.

To refresh your memory, in recent two decades we had several spells of November warmth:
+15.5C on 8 November 2022,
+16.0C on 3 November 2020,
+16.5C on 4 November 2019,
+19.2C on 2 November 2018,
+15.8C on 8 November 2015,
+18.6C on 6 November 2014,
+15.7C on 3 November 2013,
+17.2C on 14 November 2010,
+16.9C on 1 November 2008.

Clocks have gone backward

I grossly dislike the last weekend of October when dusk sets in an hour earlier than on the day before. The hammer of darkness does not bring me down, but I would definitely prefer to enjoy more daylight in the afternoon than in the morning.

The Daylight Saving Time came first into effect during WW1. I once heard its purpose was to misguide the enemy, but I have not come across evidence to underpin it. Since then it has been broadly used in most developed countries. Currently 34% of world's population shift the clocks twice a year. Bear in mind the “winter” time is a basic time zone, while the "summer" time is the departure giving benefit of longer evenings from April to October and diminishing effect of useless sunlight when most people are still asleep over that period.

One must note since introducing the DST daily routines have changed. This is vividly noticeable in Poland, where people in mass no longer wake up at the crack of dawn to knock on the first shift which ends in the middle of the afternoon. A far more prevalent work kick-off time is 9:00 a.m., but instead of knocking off at 3:00 p.m. or 4:00 p.m., white-collar workers do overtime in evenings. Early morning daylight hance makes little sense.

I am not in favour of moving the clock back and forth twice a year, but this nuisance is preferable to me to staying in winter time all year round and being deprived of long spring and summer evenings. Benefits and costs have been reasonably well-investigated and the latter apparently outweigh the former, but this is insufficient to bureaucrats in Brussels. The process of attempting to scrap the clock shifting within the EU is one of miserable proofs how the EU is paralysed by over-regulation.

Currently EU countries lie in three time zones and given differences in latitudes between the two edges of the continent, Europe will still need to be divided into three zones, but with different boundaries between them. Warsaw and Madrid, around one sun-hour and forty sun-minutes apart should not lie in the same time zone. Time to come to terms with it and let each country choose which time zone suits them best. Majority of Poles posit Poland should run in DST all year round and I hold the same view.

Szlachetna Paczka – my sixth participation

My track record of volunteering in Szlachetna Paczka is getting longer, though not broader. I have deliberately chosen not to go beyond what affects the area of Ursynów, but while aiding some locals in need, I have gone through roles of area leader, deputy leader and logistics co-ordinator. This year I am one of two deputy leaders and again, I am in charge of logistics.

I keep recalling the 2024 edition as a moderate cock-up, not as massive as in 2020, but proving a mediocre, conceited leader can screw it up all the way. Fortunately, the ex-post evaluation procedure worked properly and the guy has been ousted from the charity, but what has been squandered last year needs to be restored and lessons from what went wrong must be learnt.

This year, as I am single (over the last five editions, I was in relationships), I have decided to devote more of my time to undertakings which matter and where my deeds have impact. For work-related reasons, I have not filed my candidacy for the position of the area leader, which I definitely not regret. This position carries so many development opportunities that it ought to “change hands” each year. This year’s leader is a reasonable guy, yet badly lacks self-confidence and drive to move things forward, skills which are essential in this role. I try to buoy him up as much as possible and hope he spreads his wings by mid-December.

My first visits to a family being a potential beneficiary this year was on 16 September, a record-early onset. So far, I have been in process of visiting six families and my plan is to see the back of it by the end of October. The reality will likely put paid to my plans. A crucial element of my role of an experienced volunteer is onboarding newcomers and sharing tricks of the trade with them. This year we have a record-high number of volunteers in the area, with some of the freshmen being outstanding, while with some might give a rough ride.

Histories of hardships our potential beneficiaries encounter seem tougher this year. As a seasoned volunteer I know how to tackle them, but I also spot sings of burnout. The primary reason for this is being confronted with my parents senescence. This means I prefer to work with younger families, whose stories do not prevail in the circle of households we reach.  

There are moments I would opt for sticking to logistics-related tasks and giving up on family visits. I perish such thoughts, since working with the disadvantaged directly is the essence of Szlachetna Paczka. Besides, if am to be a team member, I must not be out of touch by not experiencing what fellows volunteers face up to.

To JEST nasza wojna

Dear readers. I put faith in your wisdom and have every confidence if you hear selfish goats from Konfederosja or their likes bleating the war in Ukraine is not our business, you know they are talking f**king rubbish.

Valiant Ukrainian soldiers, with substantial aid from the civilised world, have been keeping Russian army away from the Polish border for more than three and a half years. The Russia indeed occupies over 20% of Ukraine’s territory and attacks with drones spots in the entire country, but the frontline has been nearly intact for a while.

Over the recent weeks, Ukrainian drones keep destroying several refineries in European part of Russia. Estimates of damages done are to be treated with a solid dose of uncertainty, but sources say even up to 40% of total refining capacity of the tsar’s empire might be temporarily for long-lastingly shut down. Even if those figures are over-optimistic and knowing that the army will be the last to run out of fuel, those tidings are a music to my ears.

If what can be heard on a grapevine, namely that Ukraine is bound (with assents from the USA) to target power and heating plants in Russia in the coming weeks, is true, it also brings on a smile on my face, knowing weather forecasts for coming months for Russia do not indicate a mild winter. I do not feely sorry for ordinary Russians, who have superb track record of enduring a lot to help their homeland “prosper”. I also doubt they will ever realise they owe their misery to a totalitarian tsar, not to a rotten West.

In the light above the above, the major positive development in 2025 is that Donald Trump failed to nail down a ceasefire nor a peace agreement. I trust the US president, who two months ago clapped his hands as he was greeting Mr Putin in Alaska, was sufficiently humiliated by his Russian counterpart to come up to his senses.

With ceasefire in place, Russia would not see its industry destroyed. Instead, Putin would get two or three years to prepare for a bigger war, a timeframe over which Europe would not catch up with its enemy. With warfare going on, Russia is getting weaker day by day, admittedly at the price of bloodshed in Ukraine, soldiers and civilians being killed every day. It has to be spoken out Ukraine is paying price for our safety and hence it is a moral obligation of the West to aid it with weapons and information from intelligence.

Mindful of the above, I hope the war does not end soon. I keep fingers crossed for warfare continuing until Russia falls on its knees and then falls flat on its face into a frozen mud in which it has been stuck for centuries and until Ukraine regains its territories occupied by the invaders since 2014. Neither ceasefire nor peace, letting Russia regain its strength, are in a vested interest of Poland.

Chwała Ukrainie! J***ć Brauna i Konfederację!

Having shaken off

Four months past the presidential election I can confess in the run-off I voted for Mr Trzaskowski with some disgust. With no doubts, aware that my vote was primarily against Mr Nawrocki, driven my common sense. My disgust reached its peak when he prematurely announced his victory based on exit polls, giving him a tiny lead, far below the error margin of 2 percentage points. In the next days, along with over 10 million of voters I imploded into a short mourning, but got over it quickly. Two days after his defeat Mr Trzaskowski returned to his office and carried on as a mayor of Warsaw. He did what residents of the capital had given him a mandate to do, focused on running the city and kept away from country-wide politics, especially from the dispute on allegedly rigged election.

With time I Mr Trzaskowski has evolved in my mind to man being a class of his own. My disgust has faded away and has given way to a strong sense of a properly fulfilled duty. In retrospect, I am strongly convinced I voted for the most suitable candidate.

Mr Trzaskowski, though active as a mayor of Warsaw, shunned interviews with journalists until 26 September 2025, when he faced a (belated) barrage of questions from media representatives and youngsters. I have also watched it belatedly, however recommend you sacrifice 80 minutes of your precious time to listen or watch the interview in which Mr Trzaskowski was not spared inconvenient questions.

A mature man is capable of conceding his defeat, admitting mistakes he has made and learning from them. This is what Mr Trzaskowski is like. He appears wiser than his political entourage and most of his voters. He correctly urges not to bridle at reality nor to antagonise those who voted for his rival. Poking fun at Mr Nawrocki, as Mr Trzaskowski points out, is counterproductive and only solidifies the current presidents’ hangers-on. Mr Nawrocki’s victory (the scale of irregularities,which by all means ought to be sorted out, would not have brought his score below 50.6%) embodies what majority of Poles have opted for. We need to face the music, realise what has led to such choice and get our act together to minimise the number of seats in the parliament right-wing parties garner in the parliamentary election in 2027.

Mr Trzaskowski gently distances himself from the government, whose ineptitude was one of crucial drivers of his defeat, however calls for unity if the democratic coalition is not to succumb to right-wing opponents.

At the end, when addressing adolescents, he implores them not to break down, warrants not to lick wounds. No one will turn back time, we need to move ahead, pull up sleeves and build modern and tolerant Poland and stem the nationalist flood.

Mr Trzaskowski is not a spick-and-span handsome chap from a picture. He is flesh and bones. His elections staff and political entourage have got it wrong several times during the campaign, Mr Trzaskowski himself has not made any fundamental mistake. The more time lapses from the election, the more I realise a candidate being a symbol of liberal-leftist elites could not stand a chance to win the presidential election is a conservative country in times when the entire world is swerving right. His score of 49% is an accomplishment I am putting down to a his repulsive rival, abhorrent enough to mobilise liberal and leftist electorate to vote against him.

The latest heat in Warsaw ever

As I am a weather and climate statistics freak, knowing nearly by heart the history of weather records in Warsaw and having written 14 winter timelines here, each weather event which modifies weather stats for Warsaw should not pass unnoticed on PES.

With a delay, I note the maximum temperature record for July was broken on 3 July 2025, when temperature peaked at +36.5C, beating the reading of +35.9C dated 31 July 1994.

Last Sunday, on 21 September 2025 day-time high in Warsaw reached +30.8C. It was the first incidence of heat (defined as maximum temperature in excess of +30C) in the third decade of September ever. Moreover, the latest heat record, until last Sunday set on 14 September 1951 was broken by 7 days. Those are stats for Warsaw stand-alone. Country-wide, the latest incidence of heat was reported on 27 September 2012 (Jarczew, +30.8C, in most Polish cities temperature on that day reached above +26C).

The record Warsaw will be difficult to be beaten quickly, as such inflows of hot air are infrequent (we had it on 1 January 2023 when temperature peaked at +18.9C). Lucky us, it haunted us in the second half of September, not in mid-July as in high summer temperature would be likely to get close to +40C.

A matter of short time will probably be a first incidence of heat in October in Poland. So far the record is +29.3C measured on 3 October 2023 in Legnica.

Warmth spells in months other than summer ones are welcome, but they are a part of a broader picture whose element is a drought ongoing for a decade. Deficiency of rainfall has lasted two months now and forecasts for October, full of sunshine and no consensus about above-average temperatures, give little hope for making up for it.