Sunday, 14 September 2025

AI rocks the boat?

When I was child, an omni-scient all-rounder used to dubbed a "walking encyclopaedia" (literally chodząca encyklopedia). Those humans who seem to have known an answer to every question embodied a desire to possess all the knowledge in the world. A quarter of century later this dream has come true in a way few had envisaged.

I have used the most popular AI tool, ChatGPT for a while. I use it out of curiosity, ask it uncanny questions, check if it can solve manifold problems. Despite its advanced age of two and a half years, it still has deficiencies, gets it wrong several times in a row, in spite of being prompted to mend its ways, acts as an outright liar or fails to substantiate the outcomes of its work.

Many point up its capacity as a therapist. I can confess to have tried it out, at times bounced quandaries off it. Its counselling is not mould-breaking and it still does not beat a bright therapist. Interactions with it remain still inferior to frank conversations with friends.

Some men (far more often than women) ask AI to aid them in online dating. I have also checked out how this works and here ChatGPT sounds like a typical boomer whose advice I wouldn't follow. With respect to romantic relationships, unless you are inexperienced or your emotional intelligence is well below average, I suggest AI does not offer dating counselling.

More and more frequently AI is used in situations when humans were told to use their brains. Falling back on AI dumbs people down. Intense thinking activates several parts of our brains, while relying on AI renders them idle. Over time humans might become helpless and prone to accelerated mental ageing.

Just like each invention, AI might be harnessed to pursue evil goals. You must be mindful of trolls farms on which people were paid for spreading disinformation and stirring things up. With AI in place, cost of producing fake content has dramatically decreased. As of now, what AI produces is easy to recognise (although the three-legged Marcon bait was swallowed by Polish right-wing journalists), but with time differences will fade. Touching on fake content, the percentage of people who take it in, without verifying, is disturbing, if not alarming. Needless to say right-wing voters and more likely to be manipulated in such way.

For months I have been hearing AI would take away most office jobs. AI tools keep developing fast, yet they are still far from the moment they threaten my current position. Just like in times of industrial revolution, machines have not rendered factory workers jobless, AI is unlikely to cause massive lay-offs. AI might to some extent take over mundane and repeatable tasks, but somebody will still need to oversee it, verify outcomes of its work and rectify errors made by AI.

If the exchange of goods and services is to continue, there must be a balance between supply and demand. Otherwise markets stall. In case AI replaces masses of white-collar workers and corporations realise their jobs are useless, the ultimate demand (for end products) will crash and thus the entire economy will go bust. An alternative scenario is that jobs of millions of people are redefined.

Some people have embraced AI excessively. At some point realising how much harm it can do and how many flaws it has will hopefully prompt humanity to take a step back with AI development, in order to make a few more prudent steps forward.

In the long run I see two conceivable scenarios: either most likely AI settles in a broad niche, facilitating our lives and jobs, with everyone keeping in mind humans remain superior to AI, or in a far less probable scenario AI grows uncontrollably, outwits humans, takes control over us and destroys our civilisation. Averting such scenario, whose probability is estimated by AI gurus at roughly 15%, lies in our hands only.

Sunday, 7 September 2025

Climate-friendly buildings

Summer 2025 by many has been perceived as cool and wet. Sadly, when such observations were shared in public, they fuelled claims global warming is a hoax, despite numerous figures giving lie to flat-earth believers and other wackos. In fact, in Warsaw this summer was thermally normal and dry (benchmark period: 1991 – 2020).

June 2025 with mean temperature of +18.5C and total precipitation of 47.7 millimetres was slightly warmer and drier than long-term average (respectively: +17.7C and 63.9 millimetres).

July 2025 with mean temperature of ++20.0C and total precipitation of 53.8 millimetres was normal and markedly drier than long-term average (respectively: +19.7C and 82.2 millimetres).

August 2025 with mean temperature of +19.3C and total precipitation of 9.2 millimetres was slightly warmer and extremely dry in comparison to long-term average (respectively: +17.7C and 60.6 millimetres).

The first week of September brought temperatures a few degrees above long-term averages and little rainfall. The summer-like weather is foreseen to continue at least for the next two weeks.

The total number of hot days (defined as those with maximum temperature above +30C) has reached 11 so far (the last one on Friday, 5 September) and in line with weather forecasts it stands a little chance to still go up. It is conceivable, as in the past the capital of Poland saw three incidences of heat in second decades of September in Warsaw: 14 September 1951, 11 September 2012 and 13 September 2023. On top we have had so far 8 days with highs between +28C and +30C, which formally do not meet the definition of a "hot day".

Not everyone is fond of such weather. I belong to those whose bodies don't feel well in high summer and hence I have highly appreciated moderate weather, milder than in recent years.

Hot summers in Poland are still colder than what residents of southern Europe had to endure decades ago, when air-conditioning was not widespread. Since central heating was also a missing installation in most dwellings, walls were thick and windows were tiny. Window shutters gave shelter both from the heat and the cold. Roofed terraces did not let sunrays reach windows in when the sun was shining high. The price to pay were dark interiors.

I last recalled how old-style architecture protected from heat, when I entered a several-century old monastery in Święty Krzyż. With +29C and full sunshine outside, the edifice gave great shelter from heat, despite no air-condition inside.

On Friday I strolled around the centre of Warsaw and stared at modern skyscrapers. They all had walls made entirely from glass, with each storey having windows from floor to ceiling. I realise window panes these days need to meet stringent energy efficiency requirements, but glass will never be as energy-efficient as a 40-centimetre-thick brick wall. All those modern buildings can boast of fancy eco-certificates, while their architecture boosts their energy demand. The same applies to modern premium properties, with large windows being a housing equivalent of SUVs in motoring.

No energy is fully green. Generating electricity from solar panels involves carbon footprint 95% lower than from burning black coal, while for wind turbines it is 99% lower. The calculations take into account total life cycle of specific installations (source: ChatGPT).

In the office building where I work, radiators blowing in hot air and air-conditioning blowing in cold air were working at full blast all summer round. No matter how green the energy is, such waste of energy in a building which boasts of being energy-efficient is unacceptable. Same as a defunct fire alarm which has failed to inform of two small fires in the underground garage this year...

Old, energy-inefficient buildings are torn down and new, energy-efficient ones are constructed on the same plots. Has anyone calculated how many years of lower energy usage it takes to make up for carbon footprint in the demolition and subsequent construction? ChatGPT needed 4 minutes to come up with an answer: 30 years for a typical energy-efficient building, 15 years for an ultra-energy-efficient building. I have not verified it, but if it is true, business and money matters much more than actual care for environment. Much better for the planet would be to modernise existing buildings.

No matter how green the electricity that powers air-conditioning is, detrimental effects of prevalent aircon in city centres persist. Masses if hot air are blown outside several buildings and along with excessive concrete areas, exacerbate the urban heat island effect, making living conditions in city centres unbearable, especially for elderly residents.

Sunday, 31 August 2025

The place where I belong, episode 2025, vol. 2

Making up for the July trip thus keeping my promise to deliver some missing photos of one of the most adorable cycling trip destinations in the vicinity.

All snaps dated 22 August 2025. The late Friday afternoon was cooler than usual at this time of year and lacked sunshine, which took the gloss off the scenery.

An hour or so before sunset, the path running parallel to the Natolin nature reservoir’s eastern fence was already plunging into darkness. With trees and shrubs on its both sides not pruned, the place seemed creepy.

As one approaches the spot where the path turns west towards Kabaty, one can stare at the fields and meadows of southern Wilanów. Far in the distance are the developments of Powsin.

Not much closer to Kabaty one can come across this allotment, nearly in the middle of nowhere, yet with electricity connection, water from a well, not reachable by motor vehicles. I wonder if its users (it definitely is not forsaken) have a legal title for it. As I take the picture, a CCTV camera keeps an eye on.

Heading towards Kabaty, I pass by a cabbage field, no idea if reachable by a tractor. Sunflowers from a nearby field are gone. In the distance - fenced off Natolin nature reservoir. Trespassing strictly forbidden.

Neo Natolin is an estate of fancy detached houses. Construction started in early 2023, so first dwellers have already moved in. Asking prices in late 2022 ranged from PLN 2.3 million to I don't remember how much, meaning a fully furnished house involved an expense of at least PLN 3 million. I wonder who had hatched the idea of putting up a billboard advertising the estate in the middle of nowhere.

Are we at the back of beyond in provincial Poland? Nope. We are in rural Wilanów, one mile from Metro Kabaty. The outpost has been closed for a while, but looks like a typical rural grocery shop. Only a bench for local drunk addicts was missing.

Clouds roll by as I am back in Ursynów, near entrance to Warsaw underground depot. Yellow leaves on trees are not a pure signal of imminent autumn, but indicate a drought. Trees devoid of water offload a burden, shedding leaves. Note a disparity in size of a 25-year-old Renault Clio and an ugly SUV, both basically serving the same purpose of moving around.