Winter Timeline 2024/25

Forecasts for the last winter consensually predicted above-average temperature and precipitation in all months and turned out be indeed warmer than average, but by no means remarkably warm and drier than average, especially in its second half.

 

October 2024 was frost-free in Warsaw, albeit temperature fell below +3C seven times (month-time low of +1.3C on 12 October 2024). The capital of Poland was one of few places in Poland which escaped negative temperatures over that month. Note 50% of recent ten Octobers were frost-free (2017, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024). In the twentieth century first frost in November in Warsaw was a rarity.

 

The first frost (–2.8C) was measured on 3 November 2024. The first decade of November was abundant in morning frosts, yet average temperatures were late-autumn-like. Sleet was observed during rush hour on 14 November 2024.

21 November 2024
First flurry observed in the morning, stays on the ground for a little while, but melts long before midday.

22 November 2024
First proper snow. Begins to fall before dawn, settles for good, then only partly melts during the day.

23 November 2024 – 24 November 2024
Autumn clashes with winter. Temperature barely above 0C, all sorts of precipitation. Damp and chilly.

25 November 2024
Autumn definitely wins. Day-time high of +12C in full sunshine. I couldn’t be more elated.

26 November 2024 – 30 November 2024
Autumn shows its grey, miserable face. Between 0C and +8C, cloudy, rain showers.

November 2024 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.9C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). This was the coldest November in Warsaw since 2016. Stats:
- month-time high: +13.1C on 1 November 2024,
- month-time low: –4.4C on 6 November 2024,,
- the warmest day: 1 November 2024 (daily average of +11.5C):
- the coldest day: 22 November 2024 (daily average of –0.5C, the only day of thermal winter in that month)
- number of days with snow cover: 4,
- the highest snow depth: 4 centimetres on 22 November 2024 and 23 November 2024.

 

1 December 2024
The weather pattern from the last days of November continues.

2 December 2024
Skies clear up around 10:00 a.m. to give a few hours of sunshine. I strive to make the most of it, since it is predicted not to be in sight for several days.

3 December 2024 – 11 December 2024
Pre-winter shows its ugliest face. Nearly no sunshine. Rain, drizzle, sleet, damp air, gloom. Temperatures ranging from –1C to +6C. The only benefit is that winter weather does not disrupt the daily grind.

12 December 2024 – 13 December 2024
Finally sunshine and clear blue skies. Temperature typical for a Polish December – i.e. close to freezing.

14 December 2024
Was supposed to be the third sunny day in a row, but the weather packed up. Chilly.

15 December 2024
A thin blanket of snow is witnessed in the morning. It disappears by midday. Some bits of sunshine. Long-term forecasts indicate this might have been the only snow this December.

16 December 2024 – 17 December 2024
In a howling wind and downpours temperature reaches +10C, but it definitely does not feel warm.

18 December 2024 – 20 December 2024
A series of relatively warm, autumnal days.

21 December 2024 – 25 December 2024
A tad colder, generally between 0C and +5C, with some bits of sunshine.

26 December 2024
Sunshine from dawn to dusk. Frosty morning, reasonably warm afternoon.

27 December 2024 – 31 December 2024
As gloomy as it can be, with temperature gently above freezing, overwhelming darkness and greyness. Fogs and drizzle in abundance.

December 2024 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.9C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). Stats:
- month-time high: +10.5C on 19 December 2024 (and it got colder for Christmas, not customarily),
- month-time low: –5.5C on 14 December 2024,
- the warmest day 19 December 2024 (daily average of +9.9C),
- the coldest day: 14 December 2024 (daily average of – 1.8C, one of two days in the entire month with mean temperature below 0C),
- number of days with snow cover: 1,
- the highest snow depth: 1 centimetre on 15 December 2024.

 

1 January 2025 – 2 January 2025
A warm entry into the new year, with gusty winds heralding a shift towards mild winter.

3 January 2025
Snow falls on and off, but most of it melts, as the temperature stays just above 0C. A major blizzard in the evening.

4 January 2025 – 5 January 2025
Two bright, yet frosty days. Of note – these are the first two days with maximum temperature below 0C this winter.

6 January 2025
Overnight snow turns into freezing rain. Streets in Warsaw become ice rinks. By midday it begins to melt rapidly. Gone is the short winter episode.

7 January 2025
Late autumn in its ugliness returns.

8 January 2025
Sleet during the day freezes over on roads and pavements in the evening.

9 January 2025
From freezing rain in the morning, into sleet, rain and temperature topping at +7C. Weather in Warsaw this January is anything, but stable.

10 January 2025
The last day of windy, autumnal weather, before winter hits for a while. Forecasts say the snow cover might reach over 10 centimetres by Sunday evening, but I believe it will be no more than 4 centimetres.

11 January 2025 – 12 January 2025
Two days of rather intense snow showers. Temperature either very close to 0C or just below freezing. Most of the snow lingers.

13 January 2025 – 14 January 2025
Not much below 0C, but with no new supplies of white powder. This short-lasting winter incident ends with freezing rain.

15 January 2025 – 17 January 2025
A mild, dull thaw, with overcast skies, chilly wind and temperature not exceeding +3C.

18 January 2025 – 23 January 2025
Hell knows if we should call it very late autumn or very early spring. Some days are sunny, some cloudy. Reasonably warm – between –1C and +5C.

24 January 2025 – 26 January 2025
Spring is in the air for the first time in 2025. Most of the time sunny. Temperature positive in single digits. Windy.

27 January 2025 – 30 January 2025
Four days with day-time highs above +10C, spells of sunshine and scent of spring felt in the air.

31 January 2025
Temperature lower than in previous days, yet +7C is still a lot given we are in the middle of winter. First proper rainfall since 16 days.

January 2025 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.5C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +11.7C on 30 January 2025,
- month-time low: –7.2C on 5 January 2025,
- the warmest day: 29 January 2025 (daily average of whopping +9.5C),
- the coldest day: 5 January 2025 (daily average of – 3.8C),
- number of days with snow cover: 10,
- the highest snow depth: 6 centimetres on 13 January 2025.

 

1 February 2025 – 4 February 2025
The weather swings somewhere between late autumn and early spring. Cloudy, damp, but with short spells of sunshine. Above freezing most of the time.

5 February 2025
A short episode of clear skies from dawn to dusk and positive temperature.

6 February 2025 – 8 February 2025
The weather gets changeable and on the last day of the period shifts from gloom into brightness. Chilly

9 February 2025 – 10 February 2025
A high pressure system takes over, bringing cloudless skies, sunny days, surprisingly windy air and temperatures ranging from –8C at dawn to +2C in the afternoon. The deficiency of precipitation is disturbing.

11 February 2025
An absolutely ghastly day. The coldest morning of the winter so far, day-time high below –5C, wind chill below –10C.

12 February 2025 – 13 February 2025
Sunshine and afternoons with positive temperature return for a while. Note February has been snow-free so far, despite markedly negative temperatures.

14 February 2025
At last, a belated snow cover has appeared overnight and has not disappeared during the day.

15 February 2025 – 16 February 2025
Mild frost, wind chill close to –10C, some snow showers, sparse sunshine.

17 February 2025
For the first and probably for the last time this winter temperature plunges below –14C. Then ensues an entirely sunny, yet still frosty day.

18 February 2025 – 20 February 2025
Winter carries on, getting milder day by day, with snow falling on and off and some spells of sunshine.

21 February 2025 – 23 February 2025
Winter gradually retreats, with full sunshine in place, still frosty mornings, but balmy afternoons.

24 February 2025 – 27 February 2025
Warmer, with little sunshine. Gloomy pre-spring (or maybe early spring).

28 February 2025
The last day of the month is rainy, but four millimetres of precipitation will not make up for a long deficiency of rainfall.

February 2025 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was –0.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C. It was the first colder than average month since May 2023. Besides, it was the driest February since records began, with total precipitation of merely 7 millimetres. Stats:
- month-time high: +10.1C on 26 February 2025,
- month-time low: –14.3C on 17 February 2025 (being the lowest temperature of the entire winter and one of two incidences of double-digit frost this winter),
- the warmest day: 27 February 2025 (daily average of +6.7C),
- the coldest day: 17 February 2025 (daily average of –7.2C),
- number of days with snow cover: 7,
- the highest snow depth: 2 centimetres, between 16 February 2025 and 20 February 2025.

 

1 March 2025 – 2 March 2025
March gives a cold welcome, with rain and sleet. Gently above 0C.

3 March 2025 – 4 March 2025
A tad warmer day by day, waiting for the first spring episode.

5 March 2025 – 12 March 2025
Spring hits at full blast, with afternoon highs above +15C, but cold, even frosty mornings (daily temperature fluctuations reaching up to 20 Celsius degrees) and clear blue skies.

13 March 2025 – 14 March 2025
A pre-mature spring episode comes to an end. Cooler weather is accompanied by much desired rainfall, at times heavy.

15 March 2025 – 19 March 2025
Arctic air comes over, with frosty mornings, single-digit day-time highs and plenty of sunshine.

20 March 2025 – 31 March 2025
Basically not a trace of winter (except for one frosty morning). Had the tyres changed for summer ones in Octavia on 27 March.

March 2025 was extremely warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +7.0C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C, at the par with March 2014 and March 2024, but colder than in March 2007, when temperature averaged out +7.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +21.1C on 10 March 2025 (the earliest incidence of temperature above +20C in Warsaw ever, beating the previous record set on 17 March 2012),
- month-time low: –5.0C on 16 March 2025 (soon was the warmth missed),
- the warmest day: 10 March 2024 (daily average of +12.5C, a May-like weather),
- the coldest day: 17 March 2025 (daily average of +0.7C),
- number of days with snow cover: 0.

 

First days of April brought spring-like warmth, the afternoons bringing temperatures jus below +20C. The weather broke yesterday, with an inflow of an arctic mass of air. Temperature plunged, intense snow showers came on and off and continued overnight, but the snow did not linger. Average temperatures by the end of first decade of April are unlikely to be markedly above 0C, next snow showers are not unlikely, however even if the winter is not over now, its last gasp is near.

Polish presidential election in 2025 – the candidates

How time flies! This is the fourth presidential election in my homeland commented on this blog. In 2010 the vote was held in the shadow of the Smolenskair crash. In 2015 the election paved the way to PiS getting hold of power for 8 years. In 2020 the vote had to be postponed due to the pandemic.

Let’s have a subjective overview of candidates voters in Poland will be able to choose from on 18 May 2025.

Rafał Trzaskowski became a natural contender after in 2020, upon being swapped for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, in not entirely fair duel, scored 49% of votes. Five years ago his freshness added him popularity. Today, he seems to have squandered some of energy, faith and hope put in him. In this campaign he buries a burden of fatigue with liberal-leftist coalition having majority in the Polish parliament since late 2023. For many his biggest merit is handsomeness and fluency in foreign languages. For right-wing wackos he embodies all evils of the liberal elites and is a symbol of progressive leftist agenda. I fear his crew might fire up “Kamala” protocol which will not earn him more voters but might discourage floating electorate from putting a cross against him. His biggest asset seems to be his wife, starkly contrasting with the incumbent first lady.

Karol Nawrocki, formally a “civic” candidate, but effectively avidly supported by PiS. Nearly unknown a few months ago, enjoys support in polls a few percentage points lower than the party backing him. Apparently not a bright spark, lacks clear opinions on many issues, when asked directly, gives evasive answers. If he does not make it to the run-off, which is conceivable, a major reshuffle in Polish politics might be in the offing.

Sławomir Mentzen, burnt and bruised after his defeat in the parliamentary election in 2023, has learnt from mistakes made then. He ousted madcaps such as Grzegorz Braun and Janusz Korwin-Mikke from Konfederosja and now his party has a façade of a civilised right-wing grouping. Beware though, he and his cronies remain pernicious. In polls he has recently caught up with Mr Nawrocki, now they go neck in neck. The hideous bloke is less likely to win the election than the PiS-backed candidate, but his victory in the long-term would be more detrimental to Poland.

Szymon Hołownia, a rising star of the presidential election in 2020, then a superb speaker of the parliament, currently is not fighting for presidency, but to reinforce his grouping, so that it does not fall below 5%. I somewhat regret never voting for him, as he deserved it. Sadly, the potential has been wasted. I hope before the run-off he clearly hands over his support to Mr Trzaskowski.

The two leftist candidates – Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg probably have cumulative support of approximately 5%. Left-wing electorate would rather cast votes for Mr Trzaskowski right away.

Other contenders are unlikely to get more than 2% of votes each, hence their participation in the race is rather for the sake of marking their presence in politics, rather than chasing the actual victory.

Odds of another post on the campaign before the election day are rather tiny, unless an unforeseen twist of action changes my mind and will prompt me to focus my attention on politics.

Selling the car - again

For the third time in my life I am in charge of getting rid of a vehicle. In 2016 selling my 13-year-old Megane II went on surprisingly smoothly and the buyer did not even try to haggle. Last year I co-ordinated disposal of my father's 8-year-old Megane IV (which he swapped for a brand-new Skoda Scala, fulfilling, to quote him, the last dream in his lifetime). Since his vehicle was fitted with a nefarious 1.2 TCe 130 HP engine, the interest was meagre, but eventually it was purchased by AAA auto at a very decent price. The procedure went quickly (they pay with cash) and soon I could track the car being put up for sale for next nearly 100 days. Not really sure whether the trader earned much on it.

For the past year, Megane III was kept mostly to help my ex-girlfriend hone her driving skills, but with such reason to keep two cars being no longer valid, I am seeking new owner for it. I have big sentiment for this vehicle. It kept me company for more than 8 years, outlived three romantic relationships, visited several countries. So far it has been quite reliable, given its age of almost 14 years and mileage of almost 115,000 kilometres. I fear it might catch up in terms of trouble making, hence I have decided to sell it to a stranger and refuse to trade it to any of my friends (including the ex-girlfriend who had reserved the right of first refusal).

To prepare it for a new owner, it had oil, filters, brake and coolant liquid, battery changed, handbrake repaired and then the car went through MOT (no issues found). PLN 2,000 gone out of my pocket, but a new owner will be likely not to put any money into the car some time after the purchase.

I put up an ad (another PLN 100 spent), but so far the interest is not huge. I have learnt the 1.4 TCe engine, which has not caused any problems since leaving showroom, is a piece of shit, likely to fall apart after 150,000 - 200,000 kilometres, even despite changing oil every year and placid driving until the engine warms up.

I prefer to omit an intermediary, especially since I have handled all preparatory works myself, and find a private individual buyer. Consignment deal is ruled out, since I would be deprived of a car for weeks with no guarantee it is sold. Selling it to a trader is an option to be considered if I received a cash payment up-front.

In 2016 I sold Megane II for PLN 11,000, more than the equivalent of my pre-tax monthly salary then. This year Megane III, a few months older than its precedessor at the time of disposal, will definitely be traded by less than my pre-tax monthly wage. My earnings have moved on, but prices of used cars have gone up by a similar percentage as of factory-new ones.

Oddly enough, despite more advanced age and higher mileage, Megane III is in better technical condition than Megane II. The previous car was already trouble-making, Megane III is probably in the eve of becoming a time bomb. It will not require substantial financial outlays (unless its engine indeed conks out one day), but the hassle of small repairs might be bothersome.

In spite of several good memories connected with the vehicle, I strive to be an emotionless vendor. My pricing strategy is to bring down asking price by PLN 500 every eight days and be open to let a buyer beat down the settlement price by no more than 8%.

Despite my misgivings about its reliability, I sincerely hope it serves somebody well for next years, just like ex-mine Megane II does. It has not changed hands since November 2016 and keeps running until now, despite quite advanced age of 22.

13 pięter - book review

A yet another book, which has come into my hands belatedly, oddly enough the read nearly ideally coincided with the tenth anniversary of the work being first published. Basically, I once had a chance to meet him in person and since then am fond of Filip Springer’s essays, despite not being truly convinced by his leftist tilt. Recently he provoked an uproar by claiming for climate-related reasons, building detached houses should be gradually prohibited. Extreme views and ideas activate defiance and help the pendulum swing into the other extreme.

From today’s perspective, the book, dealing with housing pathologies in Poland, is a sort of outdated. It begins with a bleak picture of pre-WW2 Warsaw where growing number of residents was not matched by a rising number of flats caused a huge overcrowding in dwellings occupied by a working class. For 90% of families living in the capital of Poland having a housing unit (unit as a separate room, nor a separate flat) for the entire family (i.e. with no roommates) only was a luxury.

The author for some reason omits 45 years of communism, when the number of new dwelling relatively well caught up with rising population of Poland and standards of living improved (in spite of all the drawbacks of the bygone system). The author arranged his book as a series of stories and interviews, in which he attempts to paint an accurate picture of reality, without evaluating it or pointing what is right and what is wrong. But if you read carefully between the lines, you get several messages, e.g. that home ownership is overrated or mortgages are evil and will enslave you.

The book was written when the memory of property boom of 2006-2008, accompanied by reckless mortgage lending in CHF was relatively fresh. Also bankruptcies of developers were much more frequent a decade ago than they are now. But on the other hand, the book was written soon past the only property market serious correction, when prices between 2008 and 2012 fell by 25% in nominal terms.

For no apparent reason Mr Springer fails to crack down on pathologies of modern housing estates, such as non-functional layouts, tiny distances between buildings, rows of terraced houses built in the middle of nowhere and many other.

The accursed ownership, as his interlocutors point out, gives a sense of security. To make a house and home you need to own it. Such approach has been driven by decades of private ownership being eradicated by communists and then by years of landlords’ primacy over tenants. The properly rental market has also evolved over the last decade. With rising supply of dwellings for rent (flat purchased for investment purposes when bank deposits fetched a mediocre return), bargaining power of landlords waned and many of them began treat tenants as equal counterparties. A stride has been made, yet a flat rented from a private landlord still does not offer stability and its affordability remains as poor as it was a decade ago.

Unlike the author, I believe properties should be subject to free-market rules, but I would expect the government to help supply and demand meet where prices are affordable. Sadly, recent governments mostly boosted demand by subsidising mortgage loans, instead of taking steps towards increasing supply of available dwellings. I refer here not only to building council flats or encouraging property developers to pursue new projects. It is also about levying taxes on uninhabited properties, to discourage those with surpluses of money from speculative purchases.

Half-year health musings

Exactly six months have elapsed since the biggest health crisis in my lifetime. I am now far from despair of being immobilised, yet still not being truly fit, which might never be the case, given irreversible nature of spine devastation.

I have recently learnt a new adage: healthy people have several quandaries, while ailing people have only one quandary. It brilliantly illustrates how problems with health might turn lives upside down.

A new chapter of my tribulations opened up in January. In early phase I put it down to break-up-related stress, yet then a penny dropped and I went to have an MRI done and consult my doctor, as some symptoms, such as atypical pain during and after lying on my back (a position which ought to give relief to spine) seemed upsetting. Currently I am in process of being diagnosed if I am in an early phase of ankylosing spondylitis (in simple words, a protracted inflammation of spine joints). I believe the likelihood of being affected by this disease is below 50%, yet if indeed it gripped me, a therapy to prevent its development will be put in place swiftly.

I try to remain optimistic, despite having it uphill in recent months. I revert to gratitude for what is still within my reach and for financial resources coming in useful and shy away from negativity and focusing on what has been taken away from me. Back single I should cycle, run, take up new things and generally live it up. Instead, I am redefining myself without dopamine produced during physical exercise.

The new wave of pain, less acute, yet disturbing coincides with reading this international bestseller. In his lengthy book, the author points out long-lasting stress or traumas contribute to most autoimmunological diseases, including cancer. Suppressed emotions remain in a body, accumulate and after a tipping point is reach, the body begins to destroy itself. The book contains stories of people who neglected themselves to take care of others and likely paid a price of ruined health. Despite approaching it with a bit of scepticism, I acknowledge scientifically the theory holds water and has provoked me to revise if my benevolence to the world is not excessive.

The memories of being bed-ridden in September 2024 haunt me frequently these days. I consider myself to be a rational man, however wonder if the timing of my ailment was not haphazard. Maybe thus the fate has prevented me from popping a question and brought forward the inevitable break-up of the dead-end relationship? Maybe the stiffness in my lumbar spine, hips and several other parts of my body is a wake-up call to take care of myself?

A new bicycle

Problems with the lumbar spine which turned my life upside down nearly half a year ago continue to have impact on my functioning and to some extent might constrain my life until the end of my days. My orthopaedist told me in back in September once I return to mobility, a mountain bike would not be an option. I first sat on my old bike after the crisis on 26 October, rode 3.4 kilometres around the neighbourhood to do the shopping and regretted it. Since then I cycled locally on warm winter days, but trips totalled to no more than 6 kilometres. Each time I felt it more or less in my spine, despite quite short length of journeys.

The key to not straining the spine is siting upright, which after some research turned out to be facilitated by a trekking bike with 23-inch frame, shock absorber under the saddle and regulated handlebar. Upon consulting a local renowned bike maintenance expert, I have chosen Unibike Vision GTS 23, manufactured in 2024 and purchased on the coldest day of the passing winter, still ahead of the imminent spring-triggered price list revision.

I took it for a post-factory maintenance and had a short first cycle. After years of riding a mountain bike, I still have to get used to the upright position, but my spine did not remind me of itself past the ride.

The bike has decent fixtures and is equipped with all accessories, therefore no additional purchase were required. It set my back PLN 2,429, however I bought the last one in Poland at such bargain price, as the catalogue price is PLN 2,699. The condition of my spine will likely mean a farewell to really long (above 50 kilometres) trips, mountain cycling and difficult terrain. The bike will be used recreationally and to give up on car usage whenever possible (in situations when public transport is not practicable).

I am slowly reconciling myself with the list of forbidden activities. Flights to another continent – likely out of question, the planet will be grateful and I will not visit the country which elected Donald Trump. A eurotrip by car with a few thousand kilometres behind the wheel within a fortnight – also unlikely. All-day mountain hikes, even with sticks – not yet. Taking up some new sport disciplines during which a spine could suffer either a sudden shock or would require being long in the same position – not recommended.

On Thursday I visited the orthopaedist, to consult my most recent MRI and to tell about my recent pain symptoms, which are totally different than what I had experienced half a year ago. He looked at the pictures, examined me and it seems my recent pains, far less acute and not impairing mobility, can be traced back to hip joints. Another therapy has just commenced. I hope it eases some discomfort and broaden the range of activities allowed without excessive risk of self-harm. Keep fingers crossed for me.

A lunatic behind the wheel

In the eve of the third anniversary of the invasion to Ukraine, my hopes Donald Trump would act reasonably are dashed. The warfare, marked with attrition on both sides, might within a few months come to an end. Sadly, the peace agreement’s shape might be far from expectations of the civilised world.

The idiocy the US president displays on every step does not cease to amaze, or rather disturb me. How dumb must a man be to say he trusts the russian dictator? How short-sighted must a man be not to predict a ceasefire will buy time to putin’s war machine to build capacity for a broader campaign against NATO? How narcistic must a man be to want to bring the war to an end at any price, just to prove his powerfulness? How brazen must a man be to claim Ukraine has sparked off that war and could have finished it and accuse it of breaching a never nailed down deal?

In his transactional politics, Ukraine has a role of an object, not as a subject, it best summarises endeavours to reach a peace agreement without the invaded country being involved. The US president and his cronies are not interested in protecting NATO or in shielding foundations of the civilised world, such as a country’s right to stand up for its independence and integrity. This guy craves for rights to dig up rare resources beneath the Ukrainian soil. At the end of the day, such approach is still lesser evil than coercing Ukraine to give away occupied areas to russia, as it involves defending territories where rare metals are deposited against the russian army.

Europe in these circumstances appears powerless and sluggish. The EU leaders have belatedly realised they have made a mistake by relying on the behind-the-ocean ally as a guarantor of stability in Europe. Most countries in our region have run out of weapons shipped to Ukraine, have not rebuild their military capacities and now stick to expressing their deep concerns about how the peace is to be restored. The new US administration, no matter how critical we might be towards its policies, does not lack decisiveness and determination to resolve this conflict. Voters around the world are somewhat sick of indecisiveness and powerlessness politicians display; in several countries we see the outcomes of such shift.

Between us – Ukraine has still way to go before it becomes a mature democracy, especially in terms of cracking down on corruption and rule of oligarchs. From the perspective of Poland it needs to get to grips with its history (Wolyn genocide during WW2) But at the moment is is above all a country fighting for its independence and territories belonging to it based on international treaties. For the last 3 years Ukraine kept the russian army away from NATO’s borders. Biden’s administration’s tactics was to wear russia down and deplete its resources sustainably, so that it emerges frail after the war ends. Trump’s policies will help Russia to grow stronger in long term.

If prominent politicians call Ukraine’s president a dictator or claim aid from the Western world was partly seized by oligarchs, they speak one voice with the tsar of russia. This tsar, or his successors, will not stick to any peace agreements in a horizon of more than 3 years. The war will be suspended to let russia rebuild its military power and launch another “special operation” without making mistakes leading to a prolonged warfare in Ukraine.

As an economist I wonder how the imminent suspension of warfare impacts the Polish economy. Along with other analysts, I remain uncertain of impact on the stock market, labour market and housing market. Much depends on migration – depending on the shape of peace agreement, Ukrainians might want to return to their homeland, but a new wave might flee the country. Also, we might sadly expect a normalisation of trade relations with Russia, which is already priced in by the rallying stock market in Warsaw (I slowly begin to dispose of stock-market investment fund units purchased in late 2022 and early 2023).

A mastery in OLX

Of note – Politics, Economy, Society turns sixteen tomorrow. This means I have run a blog for a whopping 43% of my lifetime and 83% of my adult life.

But by the time I formally became adult, if I wanted to get rid of some useless stuff, firstly I needed to place free-of-charge ad in yellow pages of local Gazeta Wyborcza, then stuff could be disposed of via Allegro.pl portal, most likely by putting them out to auction. I recall well an event, around May 2011, when a guy came with his father to pick up some tools and they have virtually cleaned up my parents’ garage and paid PLN 1,100 for items we considered useless.

In the meantime, online selling has evolved and in terms of non-clothing stuff has been nearly monopolised by OLX. I began to use it in 2018 to sell for a song pieces of equipment left by the vendor of my newly purchased flat. I raised around PLN 1,000 back then, which had a tiny, yet a contribution to the refurbishment budget.

Since then I occasionally used OLX to find new possessors for stuff I no longer needed and was elated to extend their lives, especially as I was growing fond of the circular economy. A major revolution came some time ago, when OLX launched cheap deliveries via parcel lockers. The only drawback of solution is that you need to keep count of sale transactions finalised over one calendar year, not to exceed 30 sold items (or the equivalent of EUR 2,000), so that OLX does not file a report of your dabbling in trading to a tax office.

I also taught my ex-girlfriend to manage heaps of her (why do women tend to accumulate more than men?) useless belongings via OLX and Vinted, thus all in all over the last two years we sold (with delivery or in-person pick-up) around 100 items. We have not managed to recover a lot of money from it, yet financial aspect is not the crucial one. Fostering the concept of the circular economy and letting somebody buy decent stuff at a bargain price is a paramount idea behind putting stuff out on OLX. To nurture it, I have also become a buyer on OLX and have come by many nearly unused items at dirt cheap prices. On the other side were frequently thoughtless buyers, yet I do not feel guilty of my purchases – those people have not thrown their useless belongings to a rubbish bin and might learn from their mistakes not to make next reckless purchases.

Reduce, resell, repair, recycle, renew, reuse, but do not increase the output of new goods! A propos, if you need to have your small white goods repaired quickly and at decent price, I wholeheartedly recommend Serwis AGD Ryszard Rogal in the district of Ursus. They have revived a seemingly dead vacuum cleaner my parents wanted to dispose of us for a mere PLN 60 and within 2 business days.

Having the eighth teeth plucked

With two wisdom teeth already removed from the author's mouth, quality of posting on this blog might slightly decline, but for some time at least the frequency is to remain the same.

I had my upper-right eighth tooth extracted in November 2022 and it went nearly painlessly. The entire procedure lasted less than a minute. After the anaesthetics eased, it ached a bit, but the encounter was far cry from nasty stories of a few days of suffering some patients endure.

I hung back on the decision to have my lower-right wisdom tooth plucked, especially as it was predicted to be a rough ride. I finalised it on Friday, 31 January. I had not worried much ahead of the procedure, but after nearly an hour of sitting on a dentist's chair and being a victim of his attempts to get rid of the pest tooth I begun to regret my decision. Yet with the tooth being tampered with, I was far behind the point of no return. After an hour and twenty minutes of grappling with the tooth, interspersed throughout next injections of anaesthetic my unwanted wisdom companion and me eventually parted.

I recall next moments of being dizzy and feeling unreal. I strolled to a nearby pharmacy to buy prescribed painkillers and felt like throttling an entire queue of pensioners acting as quickly as snails past a race. I came back to my parents' by car, which with hindsight was not particularly reasonable. My reflex when I needed to skim on the brakes did not fail me, but drove as if I was somewhat intoxicated.

Back in family home I applied myself the prescribed painkillers and ice bags and waited for the anaesthetics to let up. The pain was not horrific, but I felt numb. I put it down then to not eating anything else than yoghurt and ice cream for 24 hours or so.

On Sunday I showed signs of returning to life and discovered my painkillers interacted badly with my anti-depression medicines. I switched then to over-the-counter ibuprofen, not as strong as the prescribed drugs, thus giving less relief from the pain.

Over the working week intensity of pain was fluctuating, but sadly it was not on the wane.

Since I was to expect a rough ride, I was advised (Medic**er’s AI post-surgery monitoring tool is a piece of sh*t) to wait patiently until a check-up visit due 7 days past the extraction. On Friday I turned up to the dentist to find out I should have brought the check-up forward. I with a well-developed infection in place, I need to take an antibiotic, apply ointment on a spot where the tooth once was, rinse mouth with sodium and have next check-up on Tuesday. It seems it might take some time before I recover.

Although the tribulations above were anything, but pleasurable, they definitely do not compare to what I had gone through in early autumn 2024 with my lumbar spine. Nevertheless, this is the second health-related experience within half a year which I would not wish on my worst enemy.

Wielka Orkiestra Świątecznej Pomocy - 2025

Contributing to Wielka Orkiestra Świątecznej Pomocy has become an annual tradition. 2 years ago I put out a picture made by me during a wine-fuelled painting workshop and it sold for PLN 810. This year I put out my flagship cakes - a cheesecake (sernik) and an apple cake (szarlotka), they sold for PLN 500. Both biddings were won by my workmates, so last Thursday I delivered what I had baked to auction winners. Twenty minutes later both cakes were already in my workmates' stomachs.

This year I went on a bidding spree myself. I have won: oil and filters change for my Megane before it changes hands, a cycling trip around Ursynów with a guide and with the mayor of Ursynów, a set of four hand-made woollen caps.

The most foolhardy expense made by me was a hearing aid purchased to a 74-year-old man who I am looking after as a Szlachetna Paczka volunteer. I took a risk of charging my credit card with PLN 7,620 and then began looking out for co-founders. The response and generosity of people around, mostly my workmates, was astoundingly superb and I ended up with a three-digit contribution to the purchase.

Year after year, WOŚP collectsmore and more money and receives more and more hatred from right-wing media and electorate. Sadly, approach to this big charity spurt has become a yet another divide line in the Polish society and the very initiative has been strongly politicised. I could moan about imperfections of Szlachetna Paczka, but I can definitely assert it is politically neutral. May it stay so.