Economy of sharing

Musings inspired by fellow blogger's thoughts and by several recent talks with acquaintances and workmates on when it pays off to own stuff and when not.

Car hire industry has been growing rapidly in Poland and expanding into new niches. All segments of the market, starting from long-term (meaning 3Y-5Y) leases, through mid-term (~1Y), short-term (a fortnight or so) to car sharing paid per minute, are growing. Cost-effectiveness of such solutions depends on a car user's needs. I use a car usually three or four times a week around town plus I take between five and ten longer (>100 kilometres) trips in a year and even if counting in all car maintenance costs I am below the break-even point, the convenience of having a car next to my door and pleasure of driving a well looked-after vehicle outweigh all drawbacks this liability (a car is more a liability than an asset I believe) has. But consider somebody who want to enjoy a ride a convertible car a few times a year. Such zealots often buy their dreamt-up vehicles and park their them in garages to drive them every third Sunday in non-winter season. Here probably the passion beats cost-effectiveness, but if you have a whim to indulge, renting a car looms as a good solution.

DIY tools found in every house or garage are yet another example. As I believe a simple set of tools which may come in handy unexpectedly (screwdrivers, pliers, hammers, wrenches) are indispensable in every household, devices, whose use is less frequent and more predictable could be borrowed for hours or days when needed (e.g. driller). Same with gardening tools - a lawnmower is something you use every several times over the warm season, same about rakes or spade, but more expensive and heavier tools such as verticulator (used to air the grass once a year) are more practical to be borrowed.

Other examples of stuff to be rather borrowed than purchased are those used sporadically. Those which spring to my mind instantly are:
- outfits used occasionally: a tailcoat if you happen wear it once a year, a wedding dress, or party dresses which women as a matter of principle wear no more than once,
- kitchen machinery plugged in once in a blue moon,
- sport equipment, especially if you take up a new sport discipline and do not know whether you would it would take your fancy, or if you use it once a year, but maintenance costs need to be borne anyway.

An advantage of borrowing rather than buying is not just saving money. It also saves spaces and declutters your basements, cellars, garages, or dwellings. Less space to store stuff sound appealing.

Generally speaking, the so-called break-even point in terms of convenience / practicability and economics is when you use something a few times a year.

Buying on one's own and borrowing are not the only options. Alternatives to consider are: 
- collective purchases of infrequently needed stuff with your friends or neighbours (here the problem is who keeps it),
- resale of stuff needed for some period of time (children's clothes, shoes and other accessories),
- exchange of clothes - good for females who want to reshuffle the content of their wardrobes without spending money.

Some time ago I was skeptical towards the economy of sharing while today I discern more and more upsides of it. Possessing is not always the best option, it is just one of many and whether it adds up or takes away of your freedom depends on life circumstances.

Why can we lose - because it's too loose ;-)

The interest rate environment in Poland (current benchmark rate of 1.50% unchanged since March 2015) is unprecedented for two reasons – firstly monetary policy has never been that stable and predictable; secondly, it has never been that loose. Guidance of monetary policy council members and statements of central bank’s governor is uniform – interest rates are going to stay intact for around two years. The monetary decision makers in their utterances point up they would sooner consider further loosening than jacking up interest rates; horribly.

Over eight years ago I wrote an essay in which I asserted why low interest rates are detrimental to the economy in the longer run. In that respect, my views have not evolved much over nearly a decade and I still fear the current near-zero real interest rates would do more harm than good to the booming economy of Poland. I do believe there are three reasons, why monetary tightening should be initiated right now, instead of waiting for dreadful stories to unfold.

Firstly, the wage pressure. Nominal wages in recent months were outpacing inflation markedly, reflecting not only rising efficiencies in production processes, but primarily labour force shortages in several industries. The salaries are rising predominantly among low-paid employees (partly side effect of 500+ allowance) whose supply is shrinking and employers are forced to compete for them. In that labour market niche pay rises reach 20% annually.

Effects?

1. Those people whose financial well-being has improved recently (good for them) would rather spend their additional income to have their needs met which generates additional demand on the market and might push up prices of basic goods.

2. Rising payrolls should drive prices of goods and services sold (otherwise profits of businesses decline or imported substitutes replace domestic goods.

Both effects contribute to increase in the price level, i.e. to future inflation.

Secondly, the situation on the property market, which is not in a bubble only thanks to record-high supply of new dwellings and several constraints on mortgage lending (which is pricey and subject to LTV restrictions and more stringent creditworthiness assessment).

The current bank deposits bring one-third of the income of property rental yield, so whoever is not afraid of risks and liquidity constraints associated with letting a flat does not keep their extra money on little-earning bank accounts and chooses to buy a flat for sale.

This also has several implications:

1.       Outflow of money from the banking system; whoever wants to invest in properties should realise unlike with a lending spree, here flow of new money might be cut short, as number of people with six-digit savings in Poland is finite.

2.       Increased supply of properties to be rented which might balance or not demand from tenants. In the final phase (especially after an interest-rate hike) the relative attractiveness of property rental might decrease and might trigger a sell-off from less experienced investors. This might as well go the other way round, as many people might be deprived of a chance to buy a property.

3.       Property developers have been increasing output of dwelling since 2014, so far with only marginal price increases. With current demand, surpassing supply and with increasing prices of construction materials and labour charges, property prices are set to rise inevitably with might not be put up with by buyers. margins in the industry will go down. Property developers as the group seem safe, however bankruptcies among general contractors and subcotractors loom large.

While until now the property market was generally heading in a good direction (increased supply of new dwelling, stable prices, higher availability defined as number of sqm can an average salary would buy), now the threat of imbalances has grown.

Worth noting other countries have already set off to increase interest rates, to somewhat dampen the economic boom and in many countries to stem double-digit growth in property prices which in longer run is dangerous to the economy and impoverishes the society.

I can moan, I can complain, while my grumbling will change nothing. I may only hope negative implications which I foresee do not materialise and the Polish economy does not suffer a shock.

Cycling season 2018 kicked off

2018 will go down in almanacs of meteorology as another year when the weather made a sudden shift from late winter (it snowed on Easter Monday, 2 April) to full-blown spring (two days later in the afternoon temperature topped +22C). Quite a shock for a body nearly sick of never-ending winter, yet a huge reason to be cheerful. So last balmy Sunday with temperature peaking +23C was a perfect day for a cycling shake-down.

My wish was not to strain my muscles and to cover a distance no longer than 50 kilometres. We chose to take the underground to the northern end of the line (the last carriage of the train was chock full of cyclists and their two-wheel equipment) and from there set off towards Kampinos forests. To the right, our first stop, the Opaleń clearing. It was just past midday, sun was shining strong. Families with children and dogs roamed around, some enjoyed picnics, some made celebrations. Kind of noisy place, yet faraway from fumes and the usual city groan.

The temperature was nearly summer-like, yet the sight of forest reminded it was still very early spring. Fallen leaves had not decomposed, trees had not gone leafy, some plants showed first buds. Today, after nearly two weeks of spring, with over +20C day-time highs (+26C on 9 April 2018 is a rarity as for the first decade of April) spring is in overdrive, though some precipitation would definitely come in useful.

It was half past two in the afternoon. Rest assured, I was not staring at the sun, just holding my smartphone to catch the sun shining through leafless trees. We were sitting on an alley-side bench, basking in the sun and filling our stomachs up with oranges and apples. A lovely place to hide away from the daily grind, awaiting the next morning in the corpo-world.

After meandering through the forest and having spotted we had ridden just less than 30 kilometres, we decided to take a detour via Łomianki and Las Młociński. Here, the suburb north-west of Warsaw. Streets were nearly empty, the traffic was sparse, as this was another trade-free Sunday. Suburbs are a lovely place to live in, yet most have one significant drawback, namely daily commutes to work or school might be a nuisance, if decent transport links do not exist. By saying “decent” I mean railways, since buses will get stuck in traffic jams along with cars, while being car-dependent is not a solution, especially if family memebrs need to rely on a driver. Needless to say, properties in well-connected suburbs are priced to reflect the quick commutes to the city centre.

We reached Metro Młociny and still had less than 40 kilometres behind us, so we resolved to ride along ul. Kasprowicza, through Stare Bielany. As we waited for traffic light to turn green, I snapped the hosuing block, built in 1950s when this part of Warsaw was developed. Old-style, heavy stalinist edifice gives off the climate of this estate built for industrial workers. In the vicinity of that place one can spot marvellous terraced houses, making up a more exclusive part of the district. Worth mentioning this part of Warsaw used to have poor transport links to the city centre until the last section of underground line was opened in 2008.

On Monday I actually felt the first ride, but not as I had expected in my thighs or in my backside, but in my arms and down my neck. Yet they were sore just for a few hours and then the aches eased up.

This weekend the weather was also perfect. Made the most of it by cleaning my car and my father’s car and helping my parents with garden works (yesterday) and cycling (today). Hope the next whiff of winter is no earlier than in November 2018.

Winter Timeline 2017/18

Late-October forecasts would say December 2017 and January 2018 would be extremely mild, while cold snap would hit in February 2018. Actually the last winter was predicted to go down as one of the mildest in history. With hindsight – the forecast has generally proven true.

31 October 2017

First ground frost this autumn (official readings say temperature dropped to +0.2C).

20 November 2017

First snow this autumn. Wet and heavy, but hit in morning rush hour, in slightly above-zero temperature and disappeared after two hours.

21 November 2017

First frost this autumn (-2C in the morning), record-late in Warsaw. Sub-zero temperatures usually are measured in the capital of Poland much earlier. Over the recent decade, first autumnal frosts were observed on:

- 14 October 2016,

-   9 October 2015,

- 24 October 2014,

-   4 October 2013,

- 26 October 2012,

- 16 October 2011,

-   8 October 2010,

- 14 October 2009,

- 17 November 2008 (wow, record beaten!),

- 10 October 2007.

22 November 2017 – 28 November 2017

Late autumn returns, occasionally with temperatures nearing double-digits, occasionally with a little touch of frost at night.

29 November 2017

Chilly, windy, rain turns into sleet. Forecasters warn of first heavy snow showers this season.

30 November 2017

Snow showers begin before sunrise. It snows all day, but since temperature lingers barely above zero, some of it melts, on pavements and roads it turns into slush. The first attack of winter is bravely endured by Warsaw (not coming to a standstill).

November 2017 in terms of temperature was warm; the temperature over the whole month averaged out +4.9C, vs. long-term mean of +3.2C. Stats:

- month-time high: +13.3C on 6 November 2017 (typical maximum in November),

- month-time low: –2.6C on 27 November 2017 (quite an ordinary low, yet sub-zero temperatures were quite rare),

- the warmest day: 2 November 2017 (daily average of +9.5C),

- the coldest day: 30 November 2017 (daily average of +0.4C, all in order, warm at the beginning, cold towards the end).

1 December 2017

+1C from dawn to dusk, gloomy, remnants of the snow slowly melt.

2 December 2017 – 3 December 2017

Gloomy (not a single sunbeam to be spotted), chilly (above zero yet windy); leftovers of the snow keep melting

4 December 2017

The winter was supposed to be gone for a fortnight, yet morning greeted Warsaw with a light dusting of snow and the day brought several short snow showers; some of the snow has lingered in barely positive temperatures.

5 December 2017 – 8 December 2017

Late autumn, with temperatures above freezing. Overwhelming gloom continues.

9 December2017 – 10 December 2017

A cold spell, meaning temperatures drop to around 0C. To make up for the chill, sunbeams light up the weekend occasionally.

11 December 2017 – 12 December 2017

Two warm, partly sunny and veritably windy days, with temperatures topping double digits on 12 December.

13 December 2017 – 17 December 2017

A full array of pre-winter’s countenances – temperatures rather above zero, with little frost at night, spells of sunshine, but with all sorts of precipitation – snow, sleet and rain.

18 December 2017 – 19 December 2017

Chilly, below zero, but high air humidity makes it feel like -10C. Besides dejecting gloom continues.

20 December 2017 – 21 December 2017

It snows delicately, but most snowflakes melt, as the temperature is just below 0C. Cloudy, dark. Longing for some sunlight…

22 December 2017

The first quite bright day after five days of unwavering gloom.

23 December 2017

It rains for the entire day, still this is late autumn. Around evening gusty wind heralds annual Christmas spell of warmth…

24 December 2017 – 25 December 2017

Objectively warm, with temperatures close to +10C, subjectively cool, on account of gusty wind and lack of sunshine.

26 December 2017 – 28 December 2017

Finally sunny, from dawn to dusk, slightly colder, but above zero all the time, even at night despite cloudless skies.

29 December 2017

This time much cooler, barely above zero and with sleet.

30 December 2017

A relatively (compared to how warm this December has been) cool, clement day, cloudless skies, accompanied with all-round frost – even in the afternoon temperature fails to make it above the point of freezing.

31 December 2017

The very last day of the year brings considerable warmth, temperature reaches +8C and drops to +1C around midnight.

December 2017 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C) Stats:

- month-time high: +11.0C on 12 December 2017,

- month-time low: –3.5C on 20 December 2017 (must have been one of the record-highest December lows),

- the warmest day: 25 December 2017 (daily average of +8.3C, why doesn’t it surprise it was on Christmas day),

- the coldest day: 19 December 2017 (daily average of -2.2C, which is still quite warm as for the coldest day).

1 January 2018

Not so gloomy, not yet sunny, yet the new year begins with almost +10C day-time high.

2 January 2018 – 7 January 2018

The common denominator of weather on all six days is positive temperature, which even for a minute does not drop below freezing. Besides, all sorts of late-autumn weather are observed, with abundance of clement hours of sunshine noted.

8 January 2018 – 9 January 2018

The coldest mornings this winter so far (-7C on both days) and temperature barely rising above zero on sunny afternoons.

10 January 2018 – 13 January 2018

Off to Norway beyond the polar circle, where on average it is warmer than in Warsaw. In the capital of Poland temperature oscillates around zero, sun is hidden behind clouds and little snow falls.

14 January 2018 – 15 January 2018

Paradoxically, temperature in Poland is a few degrees lower than at the gates of Arctic. I am greeted by temperature of -6C, chilly wind and sparse snowfall.

16 January 2018

-8C in the morning, means yet another cold record of this winter is broken. In the afternoon clear skies give way to a little snow blizzard which brings a mere one-centimetre-thick layer of snow.

17 January 2018

Snow continues to fall overnight and the precipitation reaches three centimetres. It begins to melt around midday when temperature rises above freezing.

18 January 2018

Thaws continues, but around 6 p.m. a blizzard hits Warsaw. Within three hours snow cover increases by five centimetres, not a pleasure to be outside if wind gusts reach up to 80 kmph. This has been one of bigger blizzards seen in the capital of Poland over last years.

19 January 2018 – 20 January 2018

Mild thaw continues (at least during the days), so the snow gets heavy and slowly melts. Rather gloomy, but with few supplies of new white powder. Slush everywhere.

21 January 2018

Foggy morning, icy roads and pavements. Below freezing all day.

22 January 2018 – 23 January 2018

Generally gloomy and windy, hence the chill is overwhelming. Actual thermometer readings between -7C and -2C. But winter is to ease up for a while.

24 January 2018

The freeze gives in, but the first day of thaw is marked by chilly wind and rain, so although it is above zero, it feels like -5C or below.

25 January 2018 – 28 January 2018

General thaw, albeit with incidences of overnight frost. Day-time highs between +3C and +7C and it does not feel like pre-spring is in the air. Rather dull, windy and foggy.

29 January 2018

The first whiff of pre-spring. Windy and rainy day when temperature peaks at double-digits.

30 January 2018 – 31 January 2018

Somewhat colder, but still above freezing. Damn windy, feels like some 10 degrees colder than actual temperature. The last day of January brings back the missing piece in this spell of warmth which is sunshine.

January 2018 was slightly warm, deviations from the mean temperature were not large. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.9C). Stats:

- month-time high: +10.1C on 29 January 2018 (a return to the pattern under which January’s high is into double digits),

- month-time low: –8.7C on 16 January 2018 (here in turn only single-digit frost is a rarity in January),

- the warmest day: 29 January 2018 (daily average of +8.1C, as warm as in mid-April),

- the coldest day: 15 January 2018 (daily average of –6.3C).

1 February 2018 – 2 February 2018

Still above zero, rainy. Prospect of mild winter looms, but no serious relapse of winter is in sight.

3 February 2018 – 4 February 2018

Foggy mornings, temperature-wise on the verge of winter. In the meantime the southern part of Poland gets deep under the heavy, thick layer of snow.

5 February 2018

Winter has returned. -6C in the morning is cold by the standards of this mild winter. A sunny day ends with an evening flurry.

6 February 2018

Snowy morning, gloomy day…

7 February 2018

This might be this winter’s low. -9C in Warsaw, officially, down to even -12C in the suburbs. Besides, a lovely frosty morning after which temperature soars to +1C

8 February 2018

Another incidence of overnight snow. Slightly below zero all day.

9 February 2018 – 11 February 2018

Gloom, defined as fog or cloudy sky. Below zero all the time, but no colder than -5C anyway.

12 February 2018 – 15 February 2018

Balancing on the verge of winter with different sorts of weather, including flurry, sunshine, but most of the time it is still cloudy. The time of year when days are noticeably longer, especially in afternoons (getting dark around 5 p.m.).

16  February 2018 – 19 February 2018

Frost at night. Above zero during the day. Not a single sunbeam at sight, odd precipitation (snow, sleet, drizzle).

20 February 2018 – 21 February 2018

Finally sunshine! Day-time highs above zero and these are the last moments when temperatures are above freezing this month. The biggest cold snap this winter is heading, so soon temperature is foreseen to drop to around -15C in Warsaw.

22 February 2018 – 23 February 2018

If you look outside, seemingly spring is in the air especially since no snow lies on the ground. In fact, temperatures fluctuate between -8C before dawn to around -2C in early afternoon.

24 February 2018

Some one centimetre of snow has fallen in the morning and will shield earth from biting cold foreseen for the coming days. Temperature in the evening declines below -10C for the first time this winter.

25 February 2018

The big freeze hits for the same time. -15C at 6 a.m., day-time high of -8C. Sunny most of the time. Windy, in open air makes it feel like nearly -20C.

26 February 2018 – 28 February 2018

Three consecutive days of chill. Frosty mornings, down to -15C, sunny days with day-time highs around -10C or somewhat warmer. Would not hurt that bad, had it not been for the wind…

February 2018 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –3.2C (vs. long-term average of –1.0C). Contrary to a typical pattern, beginning of the month was the warmest, while the ending was brought a bitterly cold snap. Stats:

- month-time high: +5.3C on 1 February 2018 (a bit little, in previous years double-digit highs were prevalent),

- month-time low: –15.3C on 27 February 2018 (funny, since in 2017, 27 February saw the highest temperature in the whole month),

- the warmest day: 1 February 2018 (daily average of +4.1C),

- the coldest day: 27 February 2018 (daily average of –11.7C).

1 March 2018 – 2 March 2018

The cold snap continues. On sunny dawns temperature drops again to -15C, afternoons get warmer, near -7C.

3 March 2018

A tad of snow has fallen overnight and in the afternoon. Warmer, day-time high of some -5C, the frost has eased that much for the first time since more than a week.

4 March 2018

The morning with a low of around -13C, then it gets warmer, near -1C!

5 March 2018

Again, near -10C at dawn, but in the afternoon it thaws out to +4C. Balmy, wonderfully.

6 March 2018 – 9 March 2018

First whiff of spring, after a cold snap. Frost-free mornings, temperature topping almost +10C, occasional rain, but sunshine most of time.

10 March 2018 – 11 March 2018

It is the veritable incursion of spring. Most of the time sunny, day-time highs of respectively +10C and +14C. Beware through, meteorologists warn of yet another invasion of winter at the beginning of the third decade of March, hence it is not the right time to sign off the Winter timeline!

12 March 2018 – 14 March 2018

Getting colder day by day. Day-time highs drop from +15C to +8C, day-time lows well above freezing. No longer sunny. With time the oncoming assault of winter grows less scary and shorter.

15 March 2018

The spring is gone. Not much above zero, cloudy, windy.

16 March 2018

-1C in the morning. Snow begins to fall in the afternoon, a mini-blizzard hits Warsaw during evening rush hour. Late at night snow cover reaches 6 centimetres.

17 March 2018

-6C in the morning, clear blue skies all day. Despite the chill, it nearly feels like spring. Kind of reassuring to know this is quite probably the last gasp of winter.

18 March 2018

From -8C before sunrise, up to -1C in the afternoon. Sunlight is strong, but wind chill makes it feel like double-digit frost.

19 March 2018

Still cold in the morning, but over the day wind eases off and you can bask in the sun as temperature tops +1C.

20 March 2018 – 23 March 2018

Balancing on the edge of winter and spring. Mornings bring frost, afternoons are quite balmy. Sometimes sunny, sometimes cloudy. This could be the right moment to complete the winter timeline, but forecasts for the coming Easter, which customarily brought the last whiff of winter, are somewhat uncertain.

24 March 2018 – 26 March 2018

Pleasant nearly spring. Quite sunny and near +10C (below or above), though mornings bring little frost. Weather forecast chop and change in terms of how Easter would look like weather-wise, but coming days are to be on the verge of winter.

27 March 2018 – 28 March 2018

A reversal towards gloomy pre-spring, with little sunshine and temperatures hovering between 0C and +5C. A rainfall would come in useful to wash away the salt from pavements and streets.

29 March 2018

Had I finished it before today, winter timeline would have been incomplete. I wake up to a sight to falling snow, temperature 0C. It snows by midday, but melts by late afternoon. In the evening it rains. Roll on Easter!

30 March – 31 March 2018

The last days of March bring double-digit temperatures. But has winter said its last word?

March 2018 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.8C (vs. long-term average of +2.8C). The coolest in 5 years, but nearly 3 degrees warmer than absolutely abhorrent March 2013, thanks to a few spells of warmth. Stats:

- month-time high: +15.4C on 11 March 2018 (what a wonderful walk through the forest I enjoyed),

- month-time low: –15.2C on 2 March 2018 (if you believe this is dreadful, I remind you on 8 March 2006 temperature plummeted to -17.2C),

- the warmest day: 13 March 2018 (daily average of +10.5C),

- the coldest day: 1 March 2018 (daily average of –11.6C).

1 April 2018

Easter Sunday. I recall two only spring-like Easters in this decade were in 2011 and 2014, so the hit ratio is 25%. This year temperature nears +10C, but pouring rain and gusty wind do not let spend much time outdoors.

2 April 2018

Easter morning. Snow is falling, lots of it might have fallen, little have lingered in the morning. Landscapes on the suburbs of Warsaw were white for a moment.

Thereafter a customary assault of spring ensued. Temperatures soared well into double digits (the high of +22C) accompanied by plenty of sunshine. Had my tyres changed for summer ones on Wednesday, so the winter must not return ;-)

PiS losing it?

Shame on me, once an ardent observer of political arena in Poland, getting excited over goings-on, keen participant of political debates, in recent months I have strayed away from the murky world which enraged me less and less with every next encounter. But in the time of Easter holidays I have made up my mind to catch up and find out why in the recent polls (beware, one ordered by TVN24) PiS lost several percentage points in comparison to February’s results.

Actually I was struck to see the poll results this Wednesday and began to wonder what must have happened to take away the edge PiS had had over many months over the weak opposition. By today three polls were published with the following results:

1. by Kantar for TVN24:

- PiS: 28% (down by 12 p.p.)

- PO: 22% (up by 6 p.p.)

- Kukiz’15: 10% (up by 4 p.p.)

- SLD: 9% (up by 3 p.p.)

- Nowoczesna: 6%

- Partia Wolność (the one of Janusz Korwin-Mikke): 5%

- PSL: 5%

2. by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita:

- PiS: 35.2%

- coalition of PO and Nowoczesna: 33%

- Kukiz’15: 9%

- SLD: 4.5%

3. by Instytut Badań Polister for Wiadomości TVP(iS):

- PiS: 39%  (down by 8 p.p. within a month)

- PO: 22%

- Kukiz’15: 11%

- SLD: 8%

- Nowoczesna: 7%

I have deliberately cited three polls, since results somehow depend on who pays for the survey. Nevertheless, the same trends are visible in all three sets. PiS has lost a share in the pie of voters, PO is making up, support to the third party run by an alcoholic singer holds steady, while SLD has resurfaced above parliament-entry threshold.

So what has brought about such change of mind with the electorate if the economy thriving (GDP growth of ca. 5%, record-low unemployment pushing wages up, low inflation) and the opposition is as weak and lacklustre as when they lost the election in 2015.

In my theory several events must have overlapped and disgruntled not only those who voted for PiS as for an alternative to feckless and corrupt PO but also… hard-line right-wing supporters of PiS who disapprove of recent compromises. Those most meaningful are…

1. Self-awarded bonuses to former ministers and prime minister Beata Szydło, who on 22 March claimed they all deserved the additional remuneration. For my part, PLN 65 thousand is an imaginable annual bonus for me, but for an ordinary Pole this makes a damn lot of money, no wonder people whose yearly earnings stand no chance to reach that amount are outraged.

2. Appointment of Mateusz Morawiecki to the position of prime minister. A home-like Beata Szydło was replaced by a former banker, a millionaire who has signed over much of his assets to his wife. A guy who has accumulated wealth of PLN 30 million is actual not a home-like guy for electorate of PiS. Besides Mr Morawiecki has already had several slip-ups and has moved on a little in his agenda, instead he focuses on putting out numerous fires.

3. The amendment of IPN bill whose content has spoilt relations between Poland and its two important partners: Israel and USA. The history of Poland is not devoid of shameful events and unfortunately some Poles have participated in annihilation of Jews, a sensible statesman should face it and, again, apologise, not try to cover it up and attempt to punish anyone for claiming any Poles were guilty of anti-Jewish witch-hunt.

4. Decision on further proceeding with the proposal of stricter abortion law, submitted by Życie Rodzina foundation which would unconditionally ban pregnancy termination if foetus is badly and incurably defected. According to opinion surveys, three-fourth of Poles do not hold with more restrictive law, which has been spoken out during street protests on 23 March.

5. The scandal involving finances of Srebrna company, PiS-affiliated entity owning precious properties in the centre of Warsaw, which according to media reports, looks like a financial empire of Mr Kaczynski and his partisans.

PiS has reasons to be afraid. For many months it was treading on thin ice while facing accusations of destroying the justice system in Poland. If law modifications pursued by PiS are deemed unlawful by the EU institutions, flow of money to Poland might be stemmed. Besides, its most zealous devotees of PiS do not hold with many recent moves (nomination of Mr Morawiecki, elite-member to the prime minister position, cast aside the idol of hard-core PiS believers, Mr Macierewicz, recent Andrzej Duda’s veto on demotion law). PiS is facing dilemmas typical for a ruling party having a wide circle of voters and finding itself unable to satisfy everyone. While trying to gain moderate voters and attempting to appease the EU, it risked infuriating hard-line advocates, whose backing should not be taken for granted.

One swallow definitely does not make a summer. I would even not dare to adjudicate the trend has reversed, though even right-wing commentators claim PiS is now in a fix and needs to rethink its strategy, as apparently it has made a mistake of relishing on power. Further course of events lies in the hands of politicians of both sides of the arena (little hopes pinned on still feeble PO and Nowoczesna, fingers crossed for PiS prominent officials, may they bugger it up). I abstain from making hollow promises but will strive to keep up with current affairs more regularly and share my considerations here, time and weather (roll on spring!) permitting.