Sunday, 8 April 2018

Winter Timeline 2017/18

Late-October forecasts would say December 2017 and January 2018 would be extremely mild, while cold snap would hit in February 2018. Actually the last winter was predicted to go down as one of the mildest in history. With hindsight – the forecast has generally proven true.

31 October 2017
First ground frost this autumn (official readings say temperature dropped to +0.2C).

20 November 2017
First snow this autumn. Wet and heavy, but hit in morning rush hour, in slightly above-zero temperature and disappeared after two hours.

First frost this autumn (-2C in the morning), record-late in Warsaw. Sub-zero temperatures usually are measured in the capital of Poland much earlier. Over the recent decade, first autumnal frosts were observed on:
- 14 October 2016,
-   9 October 2015,
- 24 October 2014,
-   4 October 2013,
- 26 October 2012,
- 16 October 2011,
-   8 October 2010,
- 14 October 2009,
- 17 November 2008 (wow, record beaten!),
- 10 October 2007.

22 November 2017 – 28 November 2017
Late autumn returns, occasionally with temperatures nearing double-digits, occasionally with a little touch of frost at night.

29 November 2017
Chilly, windy, rain turns into sleet. Forecasters warn of first heavy snow showers this season.

Snow showers begin before sunrise. It snows all day, but since temperature lingers barely above zero, some of it melts, on pavements and roads it turns into slush. The first attack of winter is bravely endured by Warsaw (not coming to a standstill).

November 2017 in terms of temperature was warm; the temperature over the whole month averaged out +4.9C, vs. long-term mean of +3.2C. Stats:
- month-time high: +13.3C on 6 November 2017 (typical maximum in November),
- month-time low: –2.6C on 27 November 2017 (quite an ordinary low, yet sub-zero temperatures were quite rare),
- the warmest day: 2 November 2017 (daily average of +9.5C),
- the coldest day: 30 November 2017 (daily average of +0.4C, all in order, warm at the beginning, cold towards the end).

1 December 2017
+1C from dawn to dusk, gloomy, remnants of the snow slowly melt.

2 December 2017 – 3 December 2017
Gloomy (not a single sunbeam to be spotted), chilly (above zero yet windy); leftovers of the snow keep melting

4 December 2017
The winter was supposed to be gone for a fortnight, yet morning greeted Warsaw with a light dusting of snow and the day brought several short snow showers; some of the snow has lingered in barely positive temperatures.

5 December 2017 – 8 December 2017
Late autumn, with temperatures above freezing. Overwhelming gloom continues.

A cold spell, meaning temperatures drop to around 0C. To make up for the chill, sunbeams light up the weekend occasionally.

11 December 2017 – 12 December 2017
Two warm, partly sunny and veritably windy days, with temperatures topping double digits on 12 December.

13 December 2017 – 17 December 2017
A full array of pre-winter’s countenances – temperatures rather above zero, with little frost at night, spells of sunshine, but with all sorts of precipitation – snow, sleet and rain.

18 December 2017 – 19 December 2017
Chilly, below zero, but high air humidity makes it feel like -10C. Besides dejecting gloom continues.

20 December 2017 – 21 December 2017
It snows delicately, but most snowflakes melt, as the temperature is just below 0C. Cloudy, dark. Longing for some sunlight…

22 December 2017
The first quite bright day after five days of unwavering gloom.

23 December 2017
It rains for the entire day, still this is late autumn. Around evening gusty wind heralds annual Christmas spell of warmth…

24 December 2017 – 25 December 2017
Objectively warm, with temperatures close to +10C, subjectively cool, on account of gusty wind and lack of sunshine.

26 December 2017 – 28 December 2017
Finally sunny, from dawn to dusk, slightly colder, but above zero all the time, even at night despite cloudless skies.

29 December 2017
This time much cooler, barely above zero and with sleet.

30 December 2017
A relatively (compared to how warm this December has been) cool, clement day, cloudless skies, accompanied with all-round frost – even in the afternoon temperature fails to make it above the point of freezing.

31 December 2017
The very last day of the year brings considerable warmth, temperature reaches +8C and drops to +1C around midnight.

December 2017 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.5C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C) Stats:
- month-time high: +11.0C on 12 December 2017,
- month-time low: –3.5C on 20 December 2017 (must have been one of the record-highest December lows),
- the warmest day: 25 December 2017 (daily average of +8.3C, why doesn’t it surprise it was on Christmas day),
- the coldest day: 19 December 2017 (daily average of -2.2C, which is still quite warm as for the coldest day).

1 January 2018
Not so gloomy, not yet sunny, yet the new year begins with almost +10C day-time high.

2 January 2018 – 7 January 2018
The common denominator of weather on all six days is positive temperature, which even for a minute does not drop below freezing. Besides, all sorts of late-autumn weather are observed, with abundance of clement hours of sunshine noted.

8 January 2018 – 9 January 2018
The coldest mornings this winter so far (-7C on both days) and temperature barely rising above zero on sunny afternoons.

10 January 2018 – 13 January 2018
Off to Norway beyond the polar circle, where on average it is warmer than in Warsaw. In the capital of Poland temperature oscillates around zero, sun is hidden behind clouds and little snow falls.

14 January 2018 – 15 January 2018
Paradoxically, temperature in Poland is a few degrees lower than at the gates of Arctic. I am greeted by temperature of -6C, chilly wind and sparse snowfall.

-8C in the morning, means yet another cold record of this winter is broken. In the afternoon clear skies give way to a little snow blizzard which brings a mere one-centimetre-thick layer of snow.

17 January 2018
Snow continues to fall overnight and the precipitation reaches three centimetres. It begins to melt around midday when temperature rises above freezing.

18 January 2018
Thaws continues, but around 6 p.m. a blizzard hits Warsaw. Within three hours snow cover increases by five centimetres, not a pleasure to be outside if wind gusts reach up to 80 kmph. This has been one of bigger blizzards seen in the capital of Poland over last years.

19 January 2018 – 20 January 2018
Mild thaw continues (at least during the days), so the snow gets heavy and slowly melts. Rather gloomy, but with few supplies of new white powder. Slush everywhere.

Foggy morning, icy roads and pavements. Below freezing all day.

22 January 2018 – 23 January 2018
Generally gloomy and windy, hence the chill is overwhelming. Actual thermometer readings between -7C and -2C. But winter is to ease up for a while.

24 January 2018
The freeze gives in, but the first day of thaw is marked by chilly wind and rain, so although it is above zero, it feels like -5C or below.

25 January 2018 – 28 January 2018
General thaw, albeit with incidences of overnight frost. Day-time highs between +3C and +7C and it does not feel like pre-spring is in the air. Rather dull, windy and foggy.

29 January 2018
The first whiff of pre-spring. Windy and rainy day when temperature peaks at double-digits.

30 January 2018 – 31 January 2018
Somewhat colder, but still above freezing. Damn windy, feels like some 10 degrees colder than actual temperature. The last day of January brings back the missing piece in this spell of warmth which is sunshine.

January 2018 was slightly warm, deviations from the mean temperature were not large. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.9C). Stats:
- month-time high: +10.1C on 29 January 2018 (a return to the pattern under which January’s high is into double digits),
- month-time low: –8.7C on 16 January 2018 (here in turn only single-digit frost is a rarity in January),
- the warmest day: 29 January 2018 (daily average of +8.1C, as warm as in mid-April),
- the coldest day: 15 January 2018 (daily average of –6.3C).

1 February 2018 – 2 February 2018
Still above zero, rainy. Prospect of mild winter looms, but no serious relapse of winter is in sight.

3 February 2018 – 4 February 2018
Foggy mornings, temperature-wise on the verge of winter. In the meantime the southern part of Poland gets deep under the heavy, thick layer of snow.

5 February 2018
Winter has returned. -6C in the morning is cold by the standards of this mild winter. A sunny day ends with an evening flurry.

6 February 2018
Snowy morning, gloomy day…

7 February 2018
This might be this winter’s low. -9C in Warsaw, officially, down to even -12C in the suburbs. Besides, a lovely frosty morning after which temperature soars to +1C

Another incidence of overnight snow. Slightly below zero all day.

9 February 2018 – 11 February 2018
Gloom, defined as fog or cloudy sky. Below zero all the time, but no colder than -5C anyway.

12 February 2018 – 15 February 2018
Balancing on the verge of winter with different sorts of weather, including flurry, sunshine, but most of the time it is still cloudy. The time of year when days are noticeably longer, especially in afternoons (getting dark around 5 p.m.).

16  February 2018 – 19 February 2018
Frost at night. Above zero during the day. Not a single sunbeam at sight, odd precipitation (snow, sleet, drizzle).

20 February 2018 – 21 February 2018
Finally sunshine! Day-time highs above zero and these are the last moments when temperatures are above freezing this month. The biggest cold snap this winter is heading, so soon temperature is foreseen to drop to around -15C in Warsaw.

22 February 2018 – 23 February 2018
If you look outside, seemingly spring is in the air especially since no snow lies on the ground. In fact, temperatures fluctuate between -8C before dawn to around -2C in early afternoon.

24 February 2018
Some one centimetre of snow has fallen in the morning and will shield earth from biting cold foreseen for the coming days. Temperature in the evening declines below -10C for the first time this winter.

The big freeze hits for the same time. -15C at 6 a.m., day-time high of -8C. Sunny most of the time. Windy, in open air makes it feel like nearly -20C.

26 February 2018 – 28 February 2018
Three consecutive days of chill. Frosty mornings, down to -15C, sunny days with day-time highs around -10C or somewhat warmer. Would not hurt that bad, had it not been for the wind…

February 2018 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was –3.2C (vs. long-term average of –1.0C). Contrary to a typical pattern, beginning of the month was the warmest, while the ending was brought a bitterly cold snap. Stats:
- month-time high: +5.3C on 1 February 2018 (a bit little, in previous years double-digit highs were prevalent),
- month-time low: –15.3C on 27 February 2018 (funny, since in 2017, 27 February saw the highest temperature in the whole month),
- the warmest day: 1 February 2018 (daily average of +4.1C),
- the coldest day: 27 February 2018 (daily average of –11.7C).

1 March 2018 – 2 March 2018
The cold snap continues. On sunny dawns temperature drops again to -15C, afternoons get warmer, near -7C.

3 March 2018
A tad of snow has fallen overnight and in the afternoon. Warmer, day-time high of some -5C, the frost has eased that much for the first time since more than a week.

4 March 2018
The morning with a low of around -13C, then it gets warmer, near -1C!

5 March 2018
Again, near -10C at dawn, but in the afternoon it thaws out to +4C. Balmy, wonderfully.

6 March 2018 – 9 March 2018
First whiff of spring, after a cold snap. Frost-free mornings, temperature topping almost +10C, occasional rain, but sunshine most of time.

10 March 2018 – 11 March 2018
It is the veritable incursion of spring. Most of the time sunny, day-time highs of respectively +10C and +14C. Beware through, meteorologists warn of yet another invasion of winter at the beginning of the third decade of March, hence it is not the right time to sign off the Winter timeline!

12 March 2018 – 14 March 2018
Getting colder day by day. Day-time highs drop from +15C to +8C, day-time lows well above freezing. No longer sunny. With time the oncoming assault of winter grows less scary and shorter.

15 March 2018
The spring is gone. Not much above zero, cloudy, windy.

16 March 2018
-1C in the morning. Snow begins to fall in the afternoon, a mini-blizzard hits Warsaw during evening rush hour. Late at night snow cover reaches 6 centimetres.

17 March 2018
-6C in the morning, clear blue skies all day. Despite the chill, it nearly feels like spring. Kind of reassuring to know this is quite probably the last gasp of winter.

From -8C before sunrise, up to -1C in the afternoon. Sunlight is strong, but wind chill makes it feel like double-digit frost.

19 March 2018
Still cold in the morning, but over the day wind eases off and you can bask in the sun as temperature tops +1C.

20 March 2018 – 23 March 2018
Balancing on the edge of winter and spring. Mornings bring frost, afternoons are quite balmy. Sometimes sunny, sometimes cloudy. This could be the right moment to complete the winter timeline, but forecasts for the coming Easter, which customarily brought the last whiff of winter, are somewhat uncertain.

24 March 2018 – 26 March 2018
Pleasant nearly spring. Quite sunny and near +10C (below or above), though mornings bring little frost. Weather forecast chop and change in terms of how Easter would look like weather-wise, but coming days are to be on the verge of winter.

27 March 2018 – 28 March 2018
A reversal towards gloomy pre-spring, with little sunshine and temperatures hovering between 0C and +5C. A rainfall would come in useful to wash away the salt from pavements and streets.

Had I finished it before today, winter timeline would have been incomplete. I wake up to a sight to falling snow, temperature 0C. It snows by midday, but melts by late afternoon. In the evening it rains. Roll on Easter!

30 March – 31 March 2018
The last days of March bring double-digit temperatures. But has winter said its last word?

March 2018 was slightly cold. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.8C (vs. long-term average of +2.8C). The coolest in 5 years, but nearly 3 degrees warmer than absolutely abhorrent March 2013, thanks to a few spells of warmth. Stats:
- month-time high: +15.4C on 11 March 2018 (what a wonderful walk through the forest I enjoyed),
- month-time low: –15.2C on 2 March 2018 (if you believe this is dreadful, I remind you on 8 March 2006 temperature plummeted to -17.2C),
- the warmest day: 13 March 2018 (daily average of +10.5C),
- the coldest day: 1 March 2018 (daily average of –11.6C).

1 April 2018
Easter Sunday. I recall two only spring-like Easters in this decade were in 2011 and 2014, so the hit ratio is 25%. This year temperature nears +10C, but pouring rain and gusty wind do not let spend much time outdoors.

2 April 2018
Easter morning. Snow is falling, lots of it might have fallen, little have lingered in the morning. Landscapes on the suburbs of Warsaw were white for a moment.

Thereafter a customary assault of spring ensued. Temperatures soared well into double digits (the high of +22C) accompanied by plenty of sunshine. Had my tyres changed for summer ones on Wednesday, so the winter must not return ;-)

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