2017 in a nutshell

Customarily, last days of an ending year are a time of summaries, concluding thoughts and attempts to predict events in a coming year. Hence, let’s break it down to three main topics the blog has been meant to broach.

1. POLITICS

I admit not to have devoted much attention to current affairs in 2017. I have grown weary of nasty stuff going on around and have given in to the feeling I am too powerless to change anything. Many liberal voters have also displayed similar fatigue, so the activity of anti-government protests has generally waned, with one noble exception of mass protests in July to stand up for independent justice system.

PiS is holding strong in power and enjoys support of nearly half of all surveyed in polls, a larger part of electorate than those who voted for them in October 2015. The popularity of PiS is an effect, not a cause. Seasoned observers of the political arena keep arguing what has driven high support for party which resorts to autocratic measures and slowly, yet consistently dismantles democratic mechanisms. The blame weak and quarrelling opposition with lack of counter-agenda, they blame policy of lukewarm water in the tap, pursued by PO-PSL government, social inequalities, fear of migrants and criticism towards run-down Western Europe.

The key political event in 2017 was, in my opinion, change in the position of the head of government. Home-like housewife Beata, being a prime minister of ordinary people, was (unsurprisingly?) replaced by a modern-looking, wry-smiled former CEO of Bank Zachodni WBK whose net worth of over 30 million zlotys does not rank him among ordinary people. The nomination must have been a blow for several members of PiS who have stood aside Mr Kaczynski for many (mostly bad) years, while Mr Morawiecki started his political career merely two years ago and lacks merits several faithful henchmen of Mr Kaczynski could boast about.

Adrian (named after a character from “Ucho Prezesa”) has finally wasted his chance to morph into Andrzej. President Duda in July vetoed two out of three drafts law prepared by the parliament and in September came up with alternative proposals. As it eventually turned out, amendments pertain mostly to division of power between wielders of executive power and do not touch the lousy gist of new laws.

In 2018 I do not foresee a breakthrough. Unless weak opposition not only unites, but also lays out a reasonable and credible counter-agenda to rulings of PiS, little is going to change. I even doubt if a serious scandal breaks out, it will not drag down this government. The government has had numerous cock-ups along the way, but it remains teflon-coated. PO also has been shaken by several scandals for many years and support to it oscillated near 50%, in some time PiS follows the same path, provided they do not rig the elections beforehand (which is not improbable with the amended elections law recently enacted by the parliament).

2. ECONOMY

The Polish economy kept growing strong, however too low investments and too high reliance of GDP growth on consumption are still the ailments which need to be tackled by the government economists who seem to be complacent with how things come out.

The labour market in Poland has never witnessed such shortage of labour force. To fill in vacancies several companies need to hire migrants from Ukraine and retain current workforce with solid pay rises.

Pressure on wages is slowly translating into spurt in inflation which is not yet above central bank’s target, but has lifted from near- or below-zero values where it has been for some time.

The threat of inflation so far has not convinced central bankers to tighten monetary policy; consequently real interest rates in Poland are now around -1%. Most members of Monetary Policy Council tentatively speak of the first interest rate increase in the second half of 2018, those who would initiate monetary tightening right away are unfortunately in the minority. Unfortunately, since in my humble opinion the buoyant economy would withstand slightly higher interest rate with no major problems.

Poles also eagerly buy durable goods. Sales of brand-new automobiles and dwellings have been record-high in 2017. The car sales may dwindle rapidly, but the property market is not poised for sharp decline, since it is hard to find a reasonable flat in the advanced phase of construction or finished. Property developers have no problems for finding buyers for dwellings whose construction has not yet commenced, meaning they will not be left with stocks of built, ye unsold flats for the coming two years. Also property prices on the primary market in Warsaw, after being flat for four years, began to go up, but still in a moderate single-digit pace, fending off the risk of a bubble.

3. SOCIETY

Little has changed in this sphere in 2017. On the blog I dedicated more posts to private stuff.

2017 has been a year of frequent travels abroad. Never earlier in my life have I been outside Poland four times (Spain, Germany, Italy, Malta) over one year and never have I spent abroad 24 days in a year in total.

The affection has struck me out of the blue when I least expected it, after weeks of ruining uncertainty it has shaped up and is likely to last long.

Paradoxically, with a mass of good things happening to me, I was also struck by an illness. I am still trying to overcome (therapy proved fruitful, yet badly prescribed medications have wreaked some havoc and got things worse, currently I am on the mend) it and hope to fight it down in 2018.

I also hope to find enough inspirations for writing in 2018. Most bloggers active in the best years of English-language blogosphere in Poland have dropped off, two of us hold on. My goal is to carry on at least until I reach a full decade of blogging, namely until February 2019.