PiS losing it?

Shame on me, once an ardent observer of political arena in Poland, getting excited over goings-on, keen participant of political debates, in recent months I have strayed away from the murky world which enraged me less and less with every next encounter. But in the time of Easter holidays I have made up my mind to catch up and find out why in the recent polls (beware, one ordered by TVN24) PiS lost several percentage points in comparison to February’s results.

Actually I was struck to see the poll results this Wednesday and began to wonder what must have happened to take away the edge PiS had had over many months over the weak opposition. By today three polls were published with the following results:

1. by Kantar for TVN24:

- PiS: 28% (down by 12 p.p.)

- PO: 22% (up by 6 p.p.)

- Kukiz’15: 10% (up by 4 p.p.)

- SLD: 9% (up by 3 p.p.)

- Nowoczesna: 6%

- Partia Wolność (the one of Janusz Korwin-Mikke): 5%

- PSL: 5%

2. by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita:

- PiS: 35.2%

- coalition of PO and Nowoczesna: 33%

- Kukiz’15: 9%

- SLD: 4.5%

3. by Instytut Badań Polister for Wiadomości TVP(iS):

- PiS: 39%  (down by 8 p.p. within a month)

- PO: 22%

- Kukiz’15: 11%

- SLD: 8%

- Nowoczesna: 7%

I have deliberately cited three polls, since results somehow depend on who pays for the survey. Nevertheless, the same trends are visible in all three sets. PiS has lost a share in the pie of voters, PO is making up, support to the third party run by an alcoholic singer holds steady, while SLD has resurfaced above parliament-entry threshold.

So what has brought about such change of mind with the electorate if the economy thriving (GDP growth of ca. 5%, record-low unemployment pushing wages up, low inflation) and the opposition is as weak and lacklustre as when they lost the election in 2015.

In my theory several events must have overlapped and disgruntled not only those who voted for PiS as for an alternative to feckless and corrupt PO but also… hard-line right-wing supporters of PiS who disapprove of recent compromises. Those most meaningful are…

1. Self-awarded bonuses to former ministers and prime minister Beata Szydło, who on 22 March claimed they all deserved the additional remuneration. For my part, PLN 65 thousand is an imaginable annual bonus for me, but for an ordinary Pole this makes a damn lot of money, no wonder people whose yearly earnings stand no chance to reach that amount are outraged.

2. Appointment of Mateusz Morawiecki to the position of prime minister. A home-like Beata Szydło was replaced by a former banker, a millionaire who has signed over much of his assets to his wife. A guy who has accumulated wealth of PLN 30 million is actual not a home-like guy for electorate of PiS. Besides Mr Morawiecki has already had several slip-ups and has moved on a little in his agenda, instead he focuses on putting out numerous fires.

3. The amendment of IPN bill whose content has spoilt relations between Poland and its two important partners: Israel and USA. The history of Poland is not devoid of shameful events and unfortunately some Poles have participated in annihilation of Jews, a sensible statesman should face it and, again, apologise, not try to cover it up and attempt to punish anyone for claiming any Poles were guilty of anti-Jewish witch-hunt.

4. Decision on further proceeding with the proposal of stricter abortion law, submitted by Życie Rodzina foundation which would unconditionally ban pregnancy termination if foetus is badly and incurably defected. According to opinion surveys, three-fourth of Poles do not hold with more restrictive law, which has been spoken out during street protests on 23 March.

5. The scandal involving finances of Srebrna company, PiS-affiliated entity owning precious properties in the centre of Warsaw, which according to media reports, looks like a financial empire of Mr Kaczynski and his partisans.

PiS has reasons to be afraid. For many months it was treading on thin ice while facing accusations of destroying the justice system in Poland. If law modifications pursued by PiS are deemed unlawful by the EU institutions, flow of money to Poland might be stemmed. Besides, its most zealous devotees of PiS do not hold with many recent moves (nomination of Mr Morawiecki, elite-member to the prime minister position, cast aside the idol of hard-core PiS believers, Mr Macierewicz, recent Andrzej Duda’s veto on demotion law). PiS is facing dilemmas typical for a ruling party having a wide circle of voters and finding itself unable to satisfy everyone. While trying to gain moderate voters and attempting to appease the EU, it risked infuriating hard-line advocates, whose backing should not be taken for granted.

One swallow definitely does not make a summer. I would even not dare to adjudicate the trend has reversed, though even right-wing commentators claim PiS is now in a fix and needs to rethink its strategy, as apparently it has made a mistake of relishing on power. Further course of events lies in the hands of politicians of both sides of the arena (little hopes pinned on still feeble PO and Nowoczesna, fingers crossed for PiS prominent officials, may they bugger it up). I abstain from making hollow promises but will strive to keep up with current affairs more regularly and share my considerations here, time and weather (roll on spring!) permitting.