The big test for the unity of the ruling coalition (remember PiS has created
a government together with its allies from Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie).
The latter grouping, whose leader is Mr Gowin, disapproves of the government’s
plan to scrap the limit of 30 average salaries above which social security
contributions are no longer charged (to avert payments of sky-high pensions in
decades). The desperate endeavour to raise more money to the 2020 budget at the
expense of next generations is widely criticised, yet no one can be confident
whether Mr Gowin finally gives in, or what stance Lewica takes on it (they are
about to announce their strategy tomorrow). While Mr Gowin has track record for
voting for law he was unhappy with, Lewica has a test to pass to prove they are
a responsible, forward-looking leftist party. Sufficient would be their
proposal to bring in another tax bracket for the richest (tax progression is a
natural element of a leftist agenda) and firm refusal to support solutions
which create huge obligations in decades to come.
Disclaimer: the author is materially affected by the “30 wages limit”,
hence he refrains from commenting any further on the issue.
Another test for the opposition is the presidential election, due in six
months. Donald Tusk has already dispelled all doubts and has quit the fight for
presidency. Some say, probably rightly, he fears a defeat with a mediocre incumbent
president which is highly probably due to strong negative electorate Mr Tusk
has on account of his unpopular decisions. I believe the move is wise and
boosts changes to change the resident of the presidential palace.
From the 3 oppositional parties only PSL has chosen their candidate. In
the first round I would not vote for Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz, as his views,
especially social ones, do not square with mine.
Lewica keeps struggling to find a candidate (who will rather be a male),
yet among their core politicians I do not see any charismatic character who
would be capable of making it to the run-off.
Koalicja Obywatelska, with clear declaration of Mr Tusk now is about
hold an internal election and let its member choose the most suitable runner.
Two candidacies which are now present in the social media are Małgorzata
Kidawa-Błońska and Radosław Sikorski. The former lacks charisma and drive to
take part in the difficult race in which blows below the belt will be frequent.
The latter, as a minister is PiS government in 2005-2006 enchanted with late
president Lech Kaczyński, lacks strong anti-PiS credentials which seem
necessary to garner votes of leftist voters who must not stay at homes during
the run-off if Mr Duda’s re-election is to be averted.
In May 2020 I will end up, again, voting for the lesser of two evils.
2 comments:
Glad Tusk is no longer in the presidential race.
I think he has a lot to do with his new book and could concentrate on that.
Do you think MKB would do better in an easier race than in 2020? or don't you do such hypotheticals?
And staying at home during the run-off - would be tempting if it ran during Picnic Week or just after.
Hoping stuff will shake down in six months time and you read the tealeaves well.
I now hope Poznan's mayor wins the internal election and is nominated as the candidate
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