The post-election landscape

The opposition’s victory in the Senate election is a combination of (a stroke of) luck and (leaders’) judgement. The strategy to run united in most constituencies has paid off and so far has stood the test of time. PiS, despite numerous attempts to buy off upper house deputies has not managed to undercut the frail (one seat) majority (this does not mean we can be confident no traitor flees the camp of anti-PiS in coming months). The inability of the ruling party to come to terms with the result of the election proves its latent anti-democratic character, while the track record of senators from KO, Lewica and PSL proves the selection of candidates was careful.

The big test for the unity of the ruling coalition (remember PiS has created a government together with its allies from Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie). The latter grouping, whose leader is Mr Gowin, disapproves of the government’s plan to scrap the limit of 30 average salaries above which social security contributions are no longer charged (to avert payments of sky-high pensions in decades). The desperate endeavour to raise more money to the 2020 budget at the expense of next generations is widely criticised, yet no one can be confident whether Mr Gowin finally gives in, or what stance Lewica takes on it (they are about to announce their strategy tomorrow). While Mr Gowin has track record for voting for law he was unhappy with, Lewica has a test to pass to prove they are a responsible, forward-looking leftist party. Sufficient would be their proposal to bring in another tax bracket for the richest (tax progression is a natural element of a leftist agenda) and firm refusal to support solutions which create huge obligations in decades to come.

Disclaimer: the author is materially affected by the “30 wages limit”, hence he refrains from commenting any further on the issue.

Another test for the opposition is the presidential election, due in six months. Donald Tusk has already dispelled all doubts and has quit the fight for presidency. Some say, probably rightly, he fears a defeat with a mediocre incumbent president which is highly probably due to strong negative electorate Mr Tusk has on account of his unpopular decisions. I believe the move is wise and boosts changes to change the resident of the presidential palace.

From the 3 oppositional parties only PSL has chosen their candidate. In the first round I would not vote for Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz, as his views, especially social ones, do not square with mine.

Lewica keeps struggling to find a candidate (who will rather be a male), yet among their core politicians I do not see any charismatic character who would be capable of making it to the run-off.

Koalicja Obywatelska, with clear declaration of Mr Tusk now is about hold an internal election and let its member choose the most suitable runner. Two candidacies which are now present in the social media are Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and Radosław Sikorski. The former lacks charisma and drive to take part in the difficult race in which blows below the belt will be frequent. The latter, as a minister is PiS government in 2005-2006 enchanted with late president Lech Kaczyński, lacks strong anti-PiS credentials which seem necessary to garner votes of leftist voters who must not stay at homes during the run-off if Mr Duda’s re-election is to be averted.

In May 2020 I will end up, again, voting for the lesser of two evils.