2019 - end-year musings

As the end of the year draws near, high time for summaries and reflections spurred by the recent months.

The first quarter of the year was marked by refurbishment and furnishing the flat. Nine months after moving in, I feel well this is my place on earth. The drawback of such positive vibes associated with the dwelling will be the unease to move out of there one day.

The major event in the second quarter were exacerbating problems with the lumbar spine which ended up with a fortnight spent on intensive recovery, which, along with continuous exercising, have proven to help me pull through.

In the third quarter I had to face up to a tough challenge at work. The task was stressful, time-consuming and though worth being described on the blog, for the sake of confidentiality, I have held back on it. It was one of those things that could have killed me, but eventually have made me stronger.

In the fourth quarter I set out to fulfil my dream from last year and decided to commit much of my money, spare time and courage to help those worse off. It has paid back with good energy and has become made me yearn for more.

The entire year was marked by my growing awareness of the climate change, its severe implications and mankind’s impact on the global warming. After the hottest June since records began and after the warmest fourth quarter of the year since records began (October being the third warmest, November the second warmest and December on track to be the third warmest), one witnesses figures backing the climate change.

Every individual has responsibility to slow down this process, and just like in elections in which every vote counts, any (positive) change matters. In contemplating how one can influence the global warming I distinguish some key areas.

Firstly, how one heats one’s household. Here much needs to be done and is being done of the levels of central and local governments. The authorities need to support financially (with a carrot) those who need to replace their smog-generating incinerators with civilised furnaces running on natural gas, but also have to crack down (with a stick) on those who keep on burning rubbish and whatever cheap stuff to heat their houses.

Secondly, how one travels. The biggest detriment is caused by short-distance flying, which I have committed to shun as much as possible (though I may happen to repeat it, if I am forced to keep company to one of senior executives who do not stoop so low to take a train). The second biggest damage to air pollution is caused by short-distance car trips around town. I have nearly completely given up on driving below 10 kilometres (such is the distance to my parents’ house) and if I drive around town, my destinations are difficult to be reached by public transport (door-to-door journey several times longer) or when something heavy lands in my boot. Public transport and bicycle are a solution in over 90% of circumstances.

Thirdly, by one’s choices as a consumer. Here the 5R rule applies. Think before you buy an item and consider whether you really need it. Once you buy something, take care of it and use for as long as possible. Replace when an item wears down, not when your get bored of it and hanker after something brand new. Cut down on use of disposable items. Be sensitive to how stuff is packaged. I can proudly say my one-person household produces these day one 35-litre bag of litter per 3 days. Besides, I get along with life without material whims.

Fourthly, what one eats. Next year will be the time on cutting back on meat consumption, though with no intension of becoming a vegetarian.

Fifthly, be aware with making choices and mind the greenwashing. The best example of greenwashing observed by me in 2019 was my own employer, taking pride in replacing its entire fleet with hybrid Toyotas (each to be replaced by a brand-new one after mere two years of 60,000 kilometres). I have driven those cars and travelled on board of them as a passenger around town and I am more than disillusioned. Brushing driving impressions (I honestly dislike it) aside, I am deeply dissatisfied with its economics. Fuel consumption (I am writing now about hybrid Corolla sedan with 1.8 engine) of around 5 – 6 litres per 100 km in town (as much as a frugal, small petrol-run car would do and compares to my car with would consume 8 litres per 100 km) and above litres per 100 km on motorway (tempomat set at 140 kmph) which is far more than my car, which would gulp also around 8 litres at such speed, has little to do with stopping smog!

The hybrid vehicles are good for people who drive a lot around town as part of their profession (taxi drivers, couriers delivering parcels or whatever else, cable TV guys, etc). Other car users should rather be encouraged not to use cars around town rather than switching into cars which have their batteries charged from fume-producing engines. After doing a research I would not buy a hybrid car with my driving profile. Firstly, they have no advantage (to put it bluntly, perform inferiorly) in long-distance trips (2/3 of my yearly mileage), secondly they do not endure well frequent periods of sitting idle for a few days (my car generally sits in the garage over the working week).

Summing up, next year I see myself following the guidelines helping me preserve the planet, yet reasonably, without going into extremes, meaning not giving up on effects of technological progress at any price.

Wintry Christmas? No such luck!

Each single advertisement and each (with some exceptions) film whose plot plays out in Christmas period is set in a scenery of bright, snowy, often sunny winter. This has little do with actual weather…

But shapes our expectations…

 …which hardly stand confrontation with the reality.

 I have taken the trouble to find out how many of Christmas Eves between 1951 and 2019 (69 years, with firm forecasts of late autumnal weather I can fairly add this year’s Christmas Eve to the sample) when reliable and precise weather measurements have been taken and are publicly available were wintery. I define winter (hereinafter proper winter) as day-time high below 0C and at least 1 centimetre of snow lying on the ground. Out of 68 Christmas Eves, only on 13 (1953, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1969, 1970, 1986, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2003), i.e. less than one in five Christmas Eves one could enjoy proper winter in Warsaw.

I have also collected detailed data for my lifetime and have broken them down into 4 categories, taking into account combinations of two features of winter conditions: sub-zero temperature and snow. I define:

- snowy as at least 1 centimetre of snow lying on the ground,

- frosty as day-time high below 0C,

- thaw and frost-free as day-time high equal to or higher than 0C,

- melting snow as at least centimetre of snow lying on the ground, but disappearing on account of positive temperature,

- without snow and snow-free as no snow falling or lying on the ground or sleet or snow falling, yet melting instantly or soon after reaching the ground.

Snowy and frosty (i.e. proper winter): 1990, 2001, 2002, 2003.

Thaw, melting snow: 2010, 2012.

Frosty, without snow: 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007.

Frost-free, snow-free: 1987, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

In my lifetime, 4 out of 33 Christmas Eves brought proper winter, the last one was witnessed 16 years ago (and was third subsequent one).

Interestingly, in my childhood quite common were frosty (frequently with double-digit negative temperatures) yet snow-free Christmas Eves.

In 2010 and 2012 the weather was particularly cruel, as Christmas thaws were just interludes in cold and snowy Decembers.

This year’s December is the seventh warmer-than average December in a row. Until today there was no snow, nor sleet in Warsaw, nor a day with maximum temperature below 0C, so my annual winter timeline has not been launched. The coming days are to bring colder and gloomier weather, with rain showers, typical for late autumn. Some of long-term forecasts hint at odds of a sleet or melting snow in the last days of December, yet I believe we will wait for the onset of proper winter until January.

In a rush

A pile-up of work-related emergency (end-year period far busier and abundant in tribulations than usual), pre-Christmas, birthday-related (guests paying a visit today) and manifold other hustle holds me back from writing. Keep yourselves warm!

Szlachetna Paczka

Abroad, especially in the Anglo-saxon circle, giving donations to charity is one of methods of underlining one’s social status. There is something hypocritic about it and it seems helping the disadvantaged in a secondary goal. Nevertheless, despite its roots and drivers, the system of transfers from the richer part of the society to foundations and other organisations taking care of those not better off does function.

In Poland this is still in the making; few people engage in charity, though many I know do it without boasting of it. Still a wealthy Pole is usually a child of not necessarily wealthy parents and most likely a grandchild of not wealthy grandparents. Thus Poles are focused on feathering their own nests, according to my observation, revel in lavish, reckless consumerism (recent blekfrajdej being a glaring example of what I detest).

I believe once you a reach a certain status of comfortable affluence (i.e. you have bought yourself all stuff you need to have your basic needs met and have put aside money for a rainy duty, it is your duty not just to be a decent citizen to pay taxes and share your income via official redistribution system, but also to share your wealth voluntarily. I am ashamed I have realised it quite late, i.e. after buying my dreamt-up flat from money scrimped and saved over eight years spent in a corporation. Currently, I with no desire to move to a posher property, nor planning purchase of a new car, no prospects of raising a family in near future, I can put aside, not holding myself back from spending money on whatever infrequent whims I have, a five-digit or six-digit amount of PLN (depending on how generous a yearly bonus is) for no specific purpose. I feel no temptation to splurge this money foolishly, but I have felt a strong desire to share it without who cannot even dream of affluence I have.

Last year, while being in the middle of the time-consuming flat refurbishment, I donated a rather small amount of money to Szlachetna Paczka. This year, apart other activities, I have decided to sacrifice my time and buy “components” of the gift package and raise money for the initiative via facebook. I have joined a team run by my friend within a company she works for (a Polish subsidiary of a multinational FMCG distributor). The group of 110 was preparing gift packages for 7 families from Płońsk region. A sizeable venture, with 3 core co-ordinators, and several line co-ordinators, including me, responsible for collecting sorted stuff for one of families and packaging). The very process of collecting the package from a heap of stuff accumulated for 7 families is an exercise in logistics. It took four hours of physical work yesterday, but all in all has eventually come out smoothly.

Today my friend, her husband, their friend and his daughter and I oversaw packing gift boxes to a lorry and we drove to Płońsk. Out of 7 families 4 had agreed to meet representatives of the donors, therein I visited 2: a lonely middle-aged man, who has slid into poverty after his wife’s death out of passiveness and a marriage bringing up five children. The very experience is still to fresh to put it in words; my musings on the way back to Warsaw was that the poverty does not creak / shriek as the Polish saying bieda aż piszczy goes. It either screams or stays silent. I have resolved to support Szlachetna Paczka with my money and time. Very few people who take it up later give it up and I will not be in the minority.

What’s wrong with the average

November 2019, with mean temperature of +6.3C has gone down in the history as the warmest November in Warsaw after WW2 and second-warmest since records began, after November 1926 when temperature averaged out whopping +7.5C and ahead of November 1928 with average temperature of +6.2C.

For the sake of statistics, since the recent month will not become a part of the tenth edition of the renowned winter timeline:

- month-time high: +16.5C on 4 November 2019 (almost 3 degrees below last year’s record of November heat)

- month-time low: –4.7C on 1 November 2019 (was a frosty night, followed by nearly 3 weeks of above-average warmth),

- the warmest day: 4 November 2019 (daily average of +13.5C, typical late September’s weather, though windy),

- the coldest day: 23 November 2019 (daily average of –0.2C, technically a one-day thermal winter).

Also for the record, several trees, including birches, poplars, maples and willows have not shed their all leaves.

If you look at the graph showing average temperatures of Novembers in Warsaw in 21^st century against long-term average, you can see only 4 out of 19 Novembers were below the average, therein 3 less than 1 Celsius degree below it. For the sake of clarity, in Polish climatology, the average temperature is based on recent finished full three decades, hence the frame of 1981-2010 currently serves as basis for what could be considered “normal”.

Another graph compares mean temperatures of specific months in 2019 against long-term average. As it turns out , May was the only month this year with temperature below average (by 0.5C degree), while January and July were just above the average (respectively by 0.1C and 0.2C degree). 2019 is bound to go down as the warmest year in Poland since records began…

…And will beat the record set by 2018, when only February and March brought below-average temperatures, while other months were substantially warmer than historically, including especially two spring months the warmest since records began: April 2018 (mean temperature of +13.6C, beating the record of +13.5C from April 1918) and May 2018 (mean temperature of +18.2C, above May 1937 when temperature averaged out +17.8C).

While CEE countries experienced a balmy late autumn, the Western part of Europe was shivering (for around two weeks temperature in Warsaw was constantly higher than in Madrid), Venice was plagued by the most horrible flood since decades, snow fell in mountain areas of North Africa and northern Scandinavia experienced the heaviest early-November snow (nearly one metre) since 1922. The bill for our warmth was paid in other parts of the planet; unsurprisingly, since the global warming exacerbates imbalances in the atmosphere and conceivably in a year or two we might be hit by an onslaught of winter in mid-November.

I also wondered how switching to a refreshed long-term average in 2021, i.e. replacing 1981-2010 with 1991-2020 timeframe would impact “normal” mean temperatures and here comes the comparison (with averages based on 1991-2019 data). The green spots referring to the right axis show the temperature increase. Sadly, the biggest warming is observed in summer months (June and August) when heat is the hardest to withstand and through energy-consuming use of cooling systems intensifies the process of warming. Besides, many colder months have become on average milder, i.e. November, February and December. Interestingly, average temperature of October would rise by merely 0.1 degree and this is despite the string of 3 warm Octobers since 2017.

While around autumn the oncoming winter was predicted to be the mildest ever, in the recent (issued a week ago or so) long-term forecast of the Polish Met Office only December 2019 is to be warm. Polish forecasters predict January 2020 and February 2020 will bring proper winter, including snow and double-digit frosts, while mean temperature of March 2020 will be close to long-term average.