Pandemic diary – weeks 5 and 6

Sunday, 12 April 2020 – Monday, 13 April 2020

Hope we will never live through Easter like this, when we have to be apart in order to spend the next one together. Lack of celebrations together is not a tragedy. The weather is fine and due to numerous limitations reasonable citizens prefer to stay indoors or go for a short walk and keep their distance from other strollers.

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

One more day off work, at least giving some chance to forget about office-related quandaries. In the morning I drive to have my car overhauled and get the vehicle’s MOT renewed. While the work is being done I walk from Konstancin to the intersection of ul. Puławska and ul. Karczunkowska to watch AN-225 Mrija descending towards the runway.

For a plane spotter, a pleasure, for the government an abhorrent celebration. The plane brought 80 tonnes of medical equipment. For a comparison, two other planes, arranged by Dominika Kulczyk and WOŚP brought respectively 57 and 40 tonnes of medical equipment, with much, much less hype around it.

The car is disinfected with ozone after the overhaul. As I return, all doors remain open, there is still some nasty smell inside. I hope my Megane is ahead of another year of problem-free service.

Wednesday, 15 April 2020

Shopping, new clothes, travels, big gatherings, gadgets, eating out and several other stuff we have had to give up on. But I find it extremely hard to go without two things: spending time outdoor in nature and direct contact with people. The former is now dosed out, the latter has ceased recently.

A month ago people would call me, I would call people. These days conversations on the phone (which are the best substitutes of face-to-face meetings) get less frequent, people I talk to confess they are slowly running out of endurance in isolation.

Thursday, 16 April 2020

I hear people have discovered you can meet online do several things online thanks to web cameras and video streaming applications. A month ago I hoped thanks to the collective quarantine people would appreciate direct contact with one another. Today I fear they will relish on the new methods of communication which for me are just a substitute.

Today the duty to cover one’s nose and mouth in the public space comes into effect. A traditional face mask has a big drawback for every spectacled person, i.e. glasses mist up while one breaths air out. I have come up with an invention how to overcome this nuisance, i.e. to each of my multiple-use masks I sew in a bendable, elastic wire which then needs to adjust its shape to a shape of nose and cheeks, thus leaving no space between the skin and the mask. I wonder why nobody has exploited this market niche.

Friday, 17 April 2020

The number of tests carried out in Poland is rising after Easter. Polish laboratories have capacity of 20,000 tests per day, while today 10,500 tests are examined. Needless to say the best way to combat fever is to get rid of the thermometer.

Looking at (small and rich) countries which have made more than 5 tests per 100 citizens (in Poland so far 0.5 test per 100 citizens have been run), i.e. Iceland, United Arabic Emirates, Luxembourg, Malta, one can infer that mortality rate has been below 1% so far, except for Luxembourg where it stands currently at 2.1%. Add to this that research from the German town Gingelt, where a large sample population was examined for COVID-19 antibodies and results showed around 80% of the examined were infected symptom-free and… will you get the actual scale of the peril?

I look at increasing car traffic in Ursynów and wonder where those people go. I do not travel for work-related reasons, nor for fun, but use the car twice a week to drive to Auchan Piaseczno to do myself and pick up to my parents some bigger shopping.

Saturday, 18 April 2020

The weather is fine, but one has to stay indoors. Tomorrow first restrictions are lifted, so recreational cycling will be possible again. Sadly, with face masks only. Face masks are justified when one meets people, but what is the point in wearing them for a lonely bike ride far away from civilisation.

I look with curiosity at countries which have brought epidemic under control and where the number of active cases has been on decline for two weeks, i.e. Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Iceland. All those countries have carried out widespread testing and have introduced social distancing measures early. I wonder how the story unfolds and when the number of active cases rebounds (it seems inevitable, if social distancing rules are slowly loosened up).

Sunday, 19 April 2020

The link between common vaccinations against tuberculosis and how the epidemic spreads in a specific country appears noteworthy. Poland is one of countries in which everyone has to vaccinated, while in Italy, Spain or France, this was not obligatory. It needs to be scientifically proven, yet in vaccinated populations:
- transmission seems slower, or in other words people are more immune,
- even if a patient contract the virus, illness is milder,
- consequently the mortality rate is lower.

I go for two walks with my face mask on. The ventilation is definitely worse, so with the obligation to cover the face I will either need to give up on cycling, or find a mask which could let me breathe easily during physical effort. Doctors say intense physical effort with face mask on would do more harm than good.

Monday, 20 April 2020

The day some restrictions are lifted. You can go to a forest without a face mask (given density of walkers in Las Kabacki this is an idiocy), to a park, more people can enter churches and shops which makes shopping more convenient. Yet the economy is not being unfrozen by a single bit.

After knocking off at 5:00 p.m. I take my bike out of the basement to check whether cycling in a face mask is a nuisance. To my surprise, ventilation is not tragic, it is more than bearable. Yet trips longer thank 20 kilometres are not advisable. Doctors who dissuade people from physical effort in face masks are right.

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

Business-wise… The companies who were not instructed to close down and carry on are troubled by increased cost of rigorous sanitary regime and by lower productivity as a result of social distancing measures. Both factors drive their profitability down. In order to stay above water, they will need to raise prices soon, dashing hopes for decrease in inflation. Nevertheless, if decreasing demand will contain inflation, salary cuts or lay-offs are inevitable.

The UK figures on deaths in England and Wales are published. In week from 4 April 2020 to 10 April 2020 over 18,500 deceases were registered, vs. 5-year average of 10,500.

Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Few notice what Michael points at. Drought will be yet another problem in 2020. In April barely 4 millimetres of rainfall were recorded in Warsaw. A lovely weather to work at the balcony in the afternoon, but food prices will hit our wallets on top of other miseries.

The Biebrza National Park, one of priceless pieces of Poland’s wildlife and nature heritage is on fire. The blaze and the drought begin to come into the foreground.

In the evening I drive to the office to pick up books I lent to my workmates before the lockdown and which the gave me back and leaving them on my desk. I take an opportunity to roam around city centre around 7:00 p.m. Area near PKiN is full of homeless, drunkards and youngsters hanging around. I don’t feel entirely self. Warsaw is not a ghost down, yet is far from being alive.

Thursday, 23 April 2020

City mayors receive a letter which demands them to provide the national postal service operator with personal data of all citizens entitled to vote, which is… unlawful. Yesterday morning minister Sasin admitted he was acting on the basis of draft law… The wojna kaczyńsko-polska exacerbates.

In the evening I take a cycling trip. The weather is conducive (+16C, sunny) and I manage 20.7 kilometres with my face mask on and without drinking, at average speed of 14 kmph.

Friday, 24 April 2020

People are already fed up with restrictions, especially the isolation and the stay-home order / recommendation. These days they particularly moan about face masks in which many have problems breathing. I have managed to get on with them. I began to wear them in late March when going to a shop, today I abide by all laws, although the one which says in a crowded forest you can move about without a mask, but on an empty street you need you wear it is an idiocy.

A workmates who also lives on her own calls me to have a chat. She says during a regular war there was a visible enemy and you could take comfort in other people. Today I can be nearly sure I will not die as a result of warfare, but isolation from other people is a form of self-imposed torture.

Saturday, 25 April 2020

Handling the epidemic is about choosing the lesser of two evils. Just like many other people, I look at Sweden with curiosity. Months will elapse before we know whether their mild lockdown would be the right choice.

Saturday traffic seems to be going back to pre-lockdown levels. Number of people on the streets also getting higher. 90% wear face masks.

Sunday, 26 April 2020

Today, let’s look at curves showing active cases (number of currently infected people, i.e. all cases less recovered and fatalities) in countries which have brought the pandemic under control. Charts and figures taken from Worldometer.

Germany: peak on 6 April 2020: 72,865, down to 40,836 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 24,738 per 1 million population.

Switzerland: peak on 31 March 2020: 14,349, down to 5,995 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 28,343 per 1 million population.

Austria: peak on 3 April 2020: 9,334, down to 2,509 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 24,549 per 1 million population.

Denmark: peak on 10 April 2020: 3,799, down to 2,358 on 25 April 2020 (though up by 63 vs. 23 April 2020). Tests: 23,607 per 1 million population.

Czech Republic: peak on 13 April 2020: 5,397, down to 4,681 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 20,087 per 1 million population.

Iceland: peak on 6 April 2020: 1,096, down to 210 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 134,716 per 1 million population.

Poland: peak on 25 April 2020: 8,623. I doubt it will decline. Tests: 7,372 per 1 million population.

Online dating – first chapter closed

In this bleak period I feel obliged to follow up on my hands-on experience with the most popular online dating application. As I pointed out in the opening post, the question why so many attractive women are single, remains valid, with all my suppositions shared then holding plausible.

Girl 1, Ewa (names not changed), aged 31

We started texting on Tuesday, 11 February. The Tinder conversation went on smoothly, then we switched to Messenger and met in a cafeteria in Galeria Mokotów on Sunday, 16 February, evening. Except for the greeting part, when Ewa offered to pay for us both, underlining she was “a strong and independent woman” and I had to convince her I would pay as the one who had asked her out, the date was quite successful, without a moment of silence (which is the worst that can happen during first date). We were forced to farewell by the café staff as the closing time had come. Ewa promised to ask me out, yet after two or three days she ceased to write voluntarily and her replies to my messages were more and more succinct. The conversation died out naturally, or in other words Ewa vanished like a ghost. No regrets, as Ewa, as a workaholic and clinging excessively on to her independence, would not have been a perfect match.

On 21 February I removed my first Tinder profile and set up a revamped one. Having familiarised with how the application worked, I decided to start over and boost my chances to pair up.

Girl 2, Justyna, aged 34

We started texting on Friday, 28 February and met in town on Tuesday, 3 March. She turned out to be a nice, quite shy, yet crazy girl, though in terms of physical attractiveness not fitting my taste. During our meeting she confessed she was still getting over a break-up with her ex-boyfriend and actually told me the (pitiful) story of their relationship. As a matter of principle, some time ago I had resolved to cease to serve as a shoulder to cry on for heartbroken women and I stick to it. We texted for a while and in late March we officially wrote the final “goodbyes” to each other. Lost without regret.

Girl 3, Joanna, aged 29

We started texting on Tuesday, 10 March. Circumstances were not favourable to meet in person, yet Joanna, a psychiatrist working at Sz**tal Bró****ski adjudicated it would be safe to go for a walk. We met in late afternoon on Sunday, 15 March, as first lockdown measures were already in place. I chose ul. Płatnicza at Stare Bielany as a venue. We had a nice, nearly two-hour walk, however I believe she was somewhat disillusioned upon confronting how she had imagined me with the reality. After the meeting the exchange of messages got less intense, finally three days later she apologised for not being in touch and to get back once things shape up. I realised this was a lie, yet I am not sure whether it was about me or about the COVID-19 related mess at her workplace (my friend’s father works there, so I know this could have been the reason).

Girl 4, Ola, aged 29

I was about to give up on Tinder, but during a tedious teleconference with a client on Friday 20 March, out of pure boredom I began swiping profiles. She became my match two days later and just out of good manner I decided to start a conversation. Ola had returned from abroad on 16 March and was staying at home for 2 weeks as part of obligatory quarantine. This meant we had to wait to meet until Tuesday, 31 March, on the last day when walks in the groups of two were permitted. The two-hour walk ended in her flat which I left… around midnight. We then met three times more before Easter, then she travelled to her family home for Easter, with intention to stay there for a while and… signalled she was not interested in continuing the relationship. Given in many respects she was not a perfect match, little regret again. I feel guilty. I had decided to go out (or rather stay in) with her for two reasons – I felt lonely during the lockdown and my hormones were (and still are) buzzing. We got physical far too quickly and this was a mistake. I initiated everything, she was passively giving in, lacking assertiveness to tell me to back down if she felt uncomfortably. Besides, during texting before meeting in reality she told she did not want a boy intent on developing just the physical aspect of the relationship, so I must have let her down, or she could have felt deceived.

What I have learnt about myself or rather what has been confirmed?

1. I am not cut out for online communication. I cannot waste more than a few days texting before meeting up. I totally do not understand how people can exchange messages for weeks before they see each other.

2. I need to hold on to something, i.e. I need to feel the commitment of a girl, otherwise I clam up and let go.

3. Statistically, most girls I could meet are not perfect matches, this is absolutely normal, yet the form of rejection matter. I have no problem communicating to a girl there is no future for us and have no problem getting such message. But I do have problem with ghosting, which is the cruellest and most painful form of rejection.

4. When texting with a girl, I did not build an image of her in my mind. While setting off to meet, I would rather get to know her nearly from scratch. On the girls’ side, I feel my Tinder profile was creating a better impression of me than I did myself in reality.

Having dated four women over the last two months I need now a break to bring myself into order. After the last experience, I am in process of convincing myself I am not a rapist and should not feel overly guilty of the fast progress of getting to know Ola very well. Next, I will need to convince myself not every woman will hurt or deceive me and that some women might have some courage and will not vanish into the air.

Had it not been for the pandemic, I would probably set up a new profile on Tinder, though it would be more advisable to take my time and cool off. Coping with the past is under way, yet prospects of future are disheartening. With stringent lockdown measures in place, social life has to be put on hold for indefinite time. No days to count down, no chance to meet somebody in the real world, while just living it up. Except for longing for direct contact with other humans, I am reasonably doing well in the lockdown. Maybe if the epidemic eases and restrictions are lifted, some forms of real-world dating will become possible again.

Pandemic diary – weeks 3 and 4

Monday, 30 March 2020

Had a stressful weekend. My mum called me on Saturday evening to inform me father had fever, problems breathing and high blood pressure. Not the virus, but general strain probably caused by too intense gardening. Needless to say, had anything bad happened, the health service burdened by the virus would not have helped him. Update: dad has fully recovered.

Today and tomorrow will be gloomy for many employees. In Poland a job termination is effective as of the end of month in which it is handed, hence distressed, cash-strapped businesses are rushing to give sack to people.

Tuesday, 31 March 2020

A less busy day at work. Some moments to ponder upon the why and wherefore of what is happening. I come to think the planet earth is taking revenge on the mankind for how we have maltreated it.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020 (April Fool’s Day and nobody feels like joking)

Work-wise and economy wise…

The anti-crisis shield is a piece of shit. It offers nothing to large companies with which I deal and to whose CFOs, treasurers or financial controllers I talk to every day. A wave of bankruptcies is in the offing if no new aid measures are pursued and if restrictions are not lifted by the end of April (update, the second set of anti-crisis measure is to come into effect in mid-April, the government is about to lift some restrictions back this month to avert economic collapse).

Polish zloty has depreciated markedly, yet it does not necessarily benefit exporters, who often suffer due to either transport restrictions or dwindling demand in the eurozone.

Some clients who two weeks claimed they would persevere the crisis, today seek a helping hand. With time it will be getting only worse.

Thursday, 2 April 2020

New restrictions are in place in effect since yesterday or today. Some are wise, especially those preventing high number of people inside shops or banning gatherings in leisure areas, others are absurd, as the one ordering a couple (who sleep in one bed) to keep a distance of 2 metres while walking on a street. All restrictions are still not governed by any sort of state of emergency, which should have been imposed some time ago. It is fully justified, but the PiS government will not declare it.

The mail-in voting is how PiSites are determined to carry on with the presidential election in May. My anger prevents me from commenting on it any more. I hope the senate (where the opposition has majority) will block the law draft for 30 days.

Friday, 3 April 2020

Two months ago reduction of disposable plastic was one of priorities. Today ecology has been shelved. We wear disposable gloves and produce tonnes of rubbish to protect ourselves from the invisible enemy.

The presidential election is one thing, but I feel sorry for primary school leavers and high school leavers who are approaching their exams due respectively in late April and May. So far the government has failed to communicate the exams would be postponed (update from 9 April: exams were put off until mid-June at least). Again, the PiS government does not pass the test.

After work I write an emotional post on my facebook, in which I ask those of my friends who still support PiS or the incumbent president to unfriend me. I no longer cannot stand it. Only one person who does not give a shit about politics unfriends me.

Saturday, 4 April 2020

My father has a relapse of phlebitis. Fortunately, he get an online prescription for injected medicines. Again, I fear what if symptoms exacerbate, as the health service has run out of capacity to help in cases which a month ago were easily handled (update: dad is pulling through).

Three new stations of the second underground line are opened, for the record.

In the evening I take a lonely walk to see the progress of works at S2 construction site. Works near Ursynów Zachód junctions have not slowed despite the epidemic.

Sunday, 5 April 2020

I fear that while overcoming the epidemic people will trade their personal and civic liberties for security. I hope this will not be the price to pay and civilised western democracy will not drift towards authoritarian surveillance.

Monday, 6 April 2020

The ruling party, instead of tackling the economic aftermaths of the epidemic and focusing on the ailing health service, sets carrying out the presidential election as a priority. They vote twice, after a draw in the first voting, they call the second one, with a provision that speaker of the parliament might defer the election by a week or two, which is an abject violation of the constitution and the election code. Now the new law will be frozen in the upper house for 30 days, but the aforementioned provisions do not let the Senate prohibit the election.

PiS is the biggest evil Poland has had to endure after 1989. But decent people are bound by the obligation to fight evil. One day we will brings the account those politicians who do harm to our homeland.

Tuesday, 7 April 2020

The biggest tragedy plays out in nursing homes, where the virus is spread by nurses working also in hospitals and then between the inpatients, often elderly and with underlying illnesses. Same drama has been observed in western Europe.

Another lousy day at work. Weather-wise, the first day this year with temperature above +20C. I have my tyres changed for summer ones. After a careful analysis this seems safer than going to a supermarket to do the shopping. The biggest nuisance is taking the winter tyres (touched by a mechanic wearing gloves) out from the boot.

Wednesday, 8 April 2020

The Polish central bank further cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. I believe the move is flawed. Cheaper cost of credit will give little relief to a business or a person deprived of income, but will have negative impact on banking sector, whose reluctance to pursue lending will exacerbate.

Thursday, 9 April 2020

Falsified COVID-19 death tolls become a topic of the day after mayor of Warsaw reveals discrepancies between figures into which he has insight and those reported by the government. Mayors of several other cities begin to openly raise this issue.

Friday, 10 April 2020

The tenth anniversary of the Smolensk air crash. Jarosław Kaczyński and his retinue commemorate it abjectly violating the stringent rules of social distancing. To quote George Orwell, All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. And pigs are the most equal.

In the evening I analyse on my Facebook profile a decree on mail-in presidential voting, or pick holes in it. My friends do not need to be persuaded this a farce and no decent man should take part in it.

Saturday, 11 April 2020

On this day my thoughts go out to:

- mentally ill,

- elderly lonely people who cannot use technology to connect with their long unseen relatives,

- victims of home violence, closed behind four walls with their oppressors,

- those who have lost their jobs, or whose businesses or wealth accumulated over years of hard work have been wiped out in the lockdown.

We have to endure this sad Easter to spend the next one together. Although I remain pessimistic about odds to get to trips with the invisible enemy within just a few months.

Winter timeline 2019/20

Foreword, written on 5 April 2020.

Before posting, I read through the timeline to spot errors and do some editing. I am looking back at past days with disbelief. Over most of the period covered by the timeline, life was going on normally.

According to most long-term forecasts available around October 2020, the passing winter was meant to be one of the mildest ever, however I spotted one of two predictions of harsh winter, especially January and February 2020. In late November 2019 the Polish Met Office issued a forecast of “normal” winter in January and February 2020.

30 October 2019

First frost this autumn comes 15 days later than on average, at the end of the third warmest October since records began. It needs to be noted Warsaw miraculously averted sub-zero temperatures in the first decade of October 2019 when frost was observed in most places in Poland, while the sky over the capital was shielded by clouds. This and two next frosty mornings are just an interlude in a warm autumn. The proper winter timeline commences with the incidence of first snowfall or when day-time high does not climb above freezing.

November 2019, the warmest after WW2 (average temperature 3 Celsius degrees higher than long-term average), with mere 3 days when temperature dipped for a few hours below 0C, lack of snow and sleet, could not constitute a part of winter timeline, but deserves a separate posting.

29 December 2019

The first day when temperature stayed below the point of freezing all the time (it peaked at –0.4C) marks the beginning of the winter timeline.

30 December 2019 – 31 December 2019

Late autumn (positive temperatures, gusty winds) returns. Longing for sunshine which was last witnessed on 21 December.

December 2019 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.3C (vs. long-term average of –0.7C) and was the third highest since records began, after December 2015 (mean temperature: +4.7C) and December 2006 (mean temperature: +4.0C) Stats:

- month-time high: +12.9C on 18 December 2019 (more than 2 Celsius degrees short of December’s record, +15.4C set on 5 December 1961)

- month-time low: –6.6C on 11 December 2019 (day-time high of +2.1C on that day precluded me from launching the winter timeline then),

- the warmest day: 18 December 2019 (daily average of +7.7C, such warm days have been observed over nearly all Decembers in recent years),

- the coldest day: 11 December 2019 (daily average of –2.2C, one of 4 days with sub-zero daily mean temperature and one of 2 days in the entire month with temperature below long-term average).

December 2019 was also snow-free (I count out 20-minute sleet on 27 December 2019 between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. at the temperature of +1C and another such incident on 31 December 2019), it was the third snow-free December in my lifetime (after December 1987, December 2006).

Worth noting 4Q2019 was the warmest fourth quarter since records began, with average temperature of +6.93C (vs. long-term mean of +3.6C), beating 4Q2006, when temperature averaged out +6.87C.

1 January 2020 – 6 January 2020

Late autumn continues, most of the time exhibiting its gloomy and rainy look, seldom rationing out moments of sunshine. Night-time lows between –5C and +1C, day-time highs between +2C and +6C, but on all days average daily temperature is above 0C, except for 6 January when mean temperature stood at –0.1C.

7 January 2020 – 15 January 2020

Same weather pattern as in the earliest days of January, except for lack of night-time frosts and more sunshine. 9 days without frost are far cry from a record-long 22-day frost-free period in January observed in Warsaw from 1 January 2007 to 22 January 2007.

16 January 2020

Evening brings sharply falling temperature. But no, winter is not coming.

17 January 2020

–5C at the dead of night, picturesque freezing fog and hoar frost in the morning remind calendar-wise it is winter. Fog or smog and positive temperature over the day.

18 January 2020 – 24 January 2020

Temperatures between –2C and +5C, sparse sunshine, lots of fog and drizzle (but no freezing) and no trace of winter.

25 January 2020 – 26 January 2020

Close to zero, fog, freezing drizzle, damp, chilly wind. Feels like November has lasted three months now…

27 January – 28 January 2020

Colder mornings (–2C is still not cold January-wise), warmer middays, some sunshine.

29 January 2020

First snow this winter! It begins around 9 a.m. and snows, at times heavily until 4 p.m. Temperature is positive all the time, but the flurry is enough intensive to linger on the ground and to turn into slush on pavements. Again, I believe pedestrians are second-class citizens in Warsaw.

30 January 2020

The snow has melted overnight as temperature stayed at +3C. The day is rainy and windy, proving the weather has returned to a mode which cannot be named late autumn nor early spring.

31 January 2020

The last day of the month brings another assault of warmth…

January 2020 was very warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +2.5C (vs. long-term average of –1.9C). It ranked as third-warmest January (at the par with January 1921) after January 2007 (+3.7C) and January 1983 (+3.2C). Stats:

- month-time high: +9.9C on 15 January 2020 (4 Celsius degrees short of the record-warm +13.8C measured on 12 January 1993),

- month-time low: –4.7C on 3 January 2020 (at the par with so far the highest January’s low of –4.7C recorded on 21 January 1983),

- the warmest day: 10 January 2020 (daily average of +7.3C, which is remarkably high as for statistically the coldest month of the year),

- the coldest day: 17 January 2019 (daily average of –0.7C, which is higher than long-term average for the entire month, one of 3 days with sub-zero average daily temperature over the month, remarkably there was no day with top temperature below freezing),

- number of days with snow cover: 1,

- the highest snow depth: no idea how many centimetres on 29 January 2020, since the official weather report for that day does not show any snow cover, which is a blatant distortion!

I have learnt the reason is that they measure snow cover once in 24 hours, at 6:00 a.m. On 29 January at that time the snow was not falling, by the same hour on the next day it melted. Fortunately, ample evidence is saved for posterity to prove the current record of the latest first snow has been just beaten.

1 February 2020

Believe it or not, but the first scent of spring is in the air. Windy, at times rainy, at times sunny and abnormally warm (around +12C in the afternoon) as for early February.

2 February 2020

Not as warm as yesterday, gone is the scent of spring. Windy, with a summer-like squall.

3 February 2020 – 4 February 2020

Temperature drifting towards range typical for that time of year. Still bleak, cloudy and rainy.

5 February 2020 – 7 February 2020

What was meant to be a “cold outbreak” or an “arctic blast” turns out to bring night-time frost, chilly wind and clear blue skies. Nevertheless temperatures remain above average for this time of year.

8 February 2020 – 9 February 2020

Clear blue skies, light frost at nights, day-time highs above +5C. At the same time large swathes of the Balkan peninsula and eastern Europe are under deep snow…

10 February 2020

Holy shit. Hurricane Ciara brings howling wind, temperature above +10C, heavy rain, thunderstorm and… hail.

11 February 2020 – 13 February 2020

Cold, gloomy pre-spring, with no sunshine, gusty wind, rain, drizzle, sleet or snow, yet instantly melting.

14 February 2020 – 15 February 2020

Snow falls and lingers for a short while, then turns into drizzle. Still too little to call it even a touch of winter.

16 February 2020

After a frosty morning… Double-digit temperatures and winds return. Rain in the evening.

17 February 2020

Waking up to double-digit temperature in the morning is an absolute anomaly in February. Then in the afternoon temperature shoots up to nearly +15C. Feels like early April, that specific scent of winter giving way to spring is in the air.

18 February 2020 – 20 February 2020

Colder, which means between 0C and 10C, all sorts of weather typical for pre-spring.

21 February 2020

A touch of winter brings sleet, then rain and temperature below 5C (yet still above 0C).

22 February 2020

Precipitation from yesterday has frozen over as temperature around dawn plunged near 0C. The ensues a bright, rather sunny, yet windy day. In the evening temperature exceeds +10C.

23 February 2020 – 26 February 2020

Pre-spring shows its gloomy face. Cloudy, rainy (though dried-up soil longs for water) and windy. Needless to say temperatures stay above freezing.

27 February 2020

It snows, several times a day, sometimes heavily, yet every time the snow melts.

28 February 2020 – 29 February 2020

Frosty mornings and chilly afternoons bring mean temperature for the first time since late December close to long-term mean for the period.

February 2020 was anomalously warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.9C (vs. long-term average of –1.0C). It ranked as second-warmest, after February 1990 (mean temperature: +4.6C) and at the par with February 1989. Stats:

- month-time high: +14.3C on 17 February 2020 (still 3 degrees short of all-time record set on 25 February 1990),

- month-time low: –3.9C on 8 February 2020 (thus record of maximum February’s low set in February 1990 was broken by 0.1C degree),

- the warmest day: 17 February 2020 (daily average of +10.4C, in total there were 9 days this month with double-digit temperatures, less than in February 1990 when temperature topped above +10C on 13 days),

- the coldest day: 7 February 2020 (daily average of –0.3C, just like in January, the coldest day was above the long-term average for the entire month),

- number of days with snow cover: 0.

1 March 2020 – 9 March 2020

No signs of winter, including lack of night-time frosts (except for 5 March, when temperature before dawn dropped below –2C, and 9 March).

10 March 2020 – 12 March 2020

A period of double-digit daytime highs, which do not necessarily mean it is sunny. It often rains, yet the rain is indispensable for vegetation and for farmers.

For this occasion some statistics when in past ten years temperature exceeded +15C for the first time (day-time highs in brackets):

4 March 2019 (+15.4C), then +17.2C on 17 March 2019,

11 March 2018 (+15.4C),

5 March 2017 (+15.8C),

28 March 2016 (+15.1C),

24 March 2015 (+16.0C) and close to +20C on three consecutive days,

21 March 2014 (whopping +22.4C),

13 April 2013 (+15.7C) – this was the coldest March in my lifetime,

17 March 2012 (+20.0C),

13 March 2011 (+15.6C),

20 March 2010 (+17.5C),

Which means on average temperature should rise above +15C on 19 March and day-time highs above +15C in the second decade of March (7 days earlier in 2020) are nothing unusual, just like snow and frost (like the one we witnessed in 2010, 2013 or 2018).

13 March 2020

Balmy period comes to an end. Day-time high is +8C, but forecasters warn of winter incident ahead.

14 March 2020

Snow showers several times a day, yet at temperature of +3C hard to expect white landscapes.

15 March 2020

The coldest morning in the period covered by winter timeline: –8C before dawn. Shortly after sunrise temperature soars to reach nearly double-digits in the afternoon.

16 March 2020 – 20 March 2020

Cold mornings, balmy (above +10C) afternoons. Large temperature fluctuations help the invisible enemy.

21 March 2020

A chilly day with intermittent flurry. Snow melts instantly for the same reason as each day this… cold season.

22 March 2020 – 25 March 2020

A little arctic blast. Pre-dawn lows near –5C, afternoon highs well below +10C. Chill compensated by continual sunshine. Cold keeps people indoors. For the first time since many weeks temperatures decline below long-term averages for the period.

26 March 2020 – 28 March 2020

Sunny, warm, close to zero before sunrise. Considerably above +10C in afternoons. Gusty easterly winds take the gloss off brilliant sunshine.

29 March 2020

Day-time high of +13C is higher than foreseen. As the sunset approaches, the weather breaks – temperature drops, finally some rain falls on dry soil. The last gasp of winter is due in a few hours. A nuisance today is a record-bad air quality in Warsaw. I have always cherished the day when clocks go forward; this year my joy is muffled.

30 March 2020

In many places in Poland morning greets with snow. In Warsaw morning brings just morning frost. Several snow showers over the day, white powder even lingers for a while. Day-time high of mere +3C.

31 March 2020

I hoped to a sight of snow fallen overnight. It indeed fell near Piaseczno, but in Warsaw only frost (quite sharp, –5C) was observed. Chilly, yet sunny

March 2020 was slightly warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.9C (vs. long-term average of +2.8C). Quite warm, yet colder than in 2014 (+7.0C), 2017 (+6.2C), 2019 (+6.0C), 2015 (+5.5C). Stats:

- month-time high: +17.4C on 28 March 2020 (a whiff of spring which could have contributed to spreading the disease),

- month-time low: –7.9C on 15 March 2020 (which was the coldest morning of the entire winter),

- the warmest day: 18 March 2020 (daily average of +10.3C),

- the coldest day: 30 March 2020 (daily average of –0.2C, one of two days with sub-zero average temperature, plus it was some five Celsius degrees colder than long-term average in last days of March),

- number of days with snow cover: 0.

1 April 2020

The frosty morning brings the warmest winter ever to an end. Each next day is foreseen to be warmer than previous. In the coming days we should see +20C for the first time this year.

The entire 2019/20 winter (defined as December, January and February) was the warmest since records began in Warsaw. With average temperature of +3.2C it beat the previous record of 1989/90 winter by 0.9 Celsius degree.

All records of mild winter were broken:

There was only 1 day (29 January 2020) with snow cover, it beat the record set in 1988/89 winter when snow was lying on 15 days (22 November 1988 – 24 November 1988, 4 December 1988, 8 December 1988 – 11 December 1988, 15 December 1988 – 18 December 1988, 21 December 1988, 8 January 1989, 2 April 1989)

Depth of snow cover on 29 January 2020 was unknown (since measurements are taken once a day, at 6:00 a.m.), but definitely was lower than no more than 4 centimetres during 2007/08 winter (measured on 7 January 2008, on 18 February 2008 and on 27 March 2008)

The highest minimum temperature was –7.9C (15 March 2020), it narrowly beat the record from 1974/75 winter, when temperature fell no lower than –8.0C on 17 February 1975.