A short note today, as since yesterday I have been struggling a mini-heat stroke which hit me after cycling 70 kilometres with a 5-kilogram rucksack on my back in +28C heat on Friday. I was intent to swim in a lake, but the trip could have been done with some more convenient means of transport.
It goes without saying that the presidential election held in Belarus last Sunday has been rigged.
Needless to say, the opposition’s candidate has been blackmailed and forced to flee the country and seek asylum in bordering Lithuania (interestingly that it was not Poland that has given shelter to Mrs Tsikhanouskaya (mind spelling difference between Polish and English)).
Sadly, does not take aback the European Union has proven its weakness again. Gone are the times of Ukrainian orange revolution in November 2004 or Maidan protests in the same country in February 2014 when Western leaders acted up to the mark in aiding Ukraine break away from the dictatorship (for the latter attempt Ukraine has paid a price of the Russian invasion).
Democrats are facing a difficult question whether to interfere into internal affairs of a sovereign country and bring in democracy (attempts to install it in Middle-East Arab societies have turned out to plunge those countries into chaos, despite setting them free from dictators) or to let things drift and wait until suppressed nations stand up. For me the situation is akin to a dilemma of someone who hears that next door a neighbour beats up his wife. I believe domestic violence is not just a fellow men’s business and a decent man has an obligation to intervene.
Lukashenko regime remains powerful as long as it has police and army officers on its side. A few days ago armed forces appeared to stalwartly defend the status quo and hopes for winning the battle began to fade. Towards the end of the week one could hear of more and more instances of desertion and joining the protesters by OMON functionaries and soldiers. I believe if we are to pin hopes in anybody, those are the armed forces without which the dictator is powerless.
On moments like this I hark back to December 1989 when Romania’s communist dictator, Ceausescu was sentenced to death. I generally am against the bloodshed and capital punishment, yet somebody guilty of quelling a country’s potential and subduing a civic society deserves a war-time rather than peace-time condemnation. Such ending should remind a dictator how they may end up. On the other hand, fear of being killed would prompt them to take the cruellest measures to shield their regime.
Keeping my fingers crossed for Poland’s eastern neighbours. I realise the change will not happen overnight, this will quite likely be a long process of devolving power, yet I hope the change moves Belarus forward.
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