Warfare musings

Forecasts of the Ukraine war development for the summer months were bleak. The Ukrainian defence was foreseen to break down, the invaders, apart from trespassing into the Ukrainian territory, were supposed to provocatively, yet tentatively attempt to disturb peace in the Baltic countries. Fortunately, only a minor part of those predictions proved right.

And then all of the sudden, on 6 August 2024, the Ukrainian army successfully moved the warfare into the territory of the enemy, launching the first incidence of was in the territory of russia or its soviet predecessor since WW2. The counter-attack carries on, with the invaders still shocked their own land has become a battleground.

The intrusion into a poorly-defended Kursk region were meant to prompt the invaders to shift some regiments from Donbas region, where things are not going well and the frontline is slowly progressing west. In simple words, in regions occupied since 2014, Ukraine is being defeated.

If the warfare carries on, 19 November 2024 will be the 1,000th day since its onset. The plan of the dictator was to take over Kyiv within a few days and install a mock-up government out there. Despite running rings around the capital of Ukraine, wreaking destruction and committing genocide, it has not worked out. Ukraine keeps holding strong and the war is far from settlement.

With the imminent attrition of both sides, 3 scenarios can be considered.
The first one - Ukraine wins. Despite ongoing supplies of arms from the West (leave out now who takes over as a president of the United States soon), Ukraine lacks resources to do so.
The second one - Russia wins - unlikely in short-term perspective, sadly conceivable in 2 or 3 years. It would pave the way for their next conquers, also to combat NATO countries.
The third one - both parties are fed up with the warfare and decide to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine loses part of its territory, the invaders ease up for a while. After a while the dictator rebuilds its potential and strikes again.

The old saying if you want peace brace yourself for a war has not gone outdated. With Russia ruled and weapon-equipped as it is now, we will not feel safe for many years. A full-scale invasion into CEE seems unimaginable, but a full-blown warfare is not essential to wreak havoc in the region. Deterrents must be in place, to discourage the dictator from a confrontation with NATO. Besides, unity of allies has to be manifested. For such reason I keep fingers crossed for the victory of Kamala Harris in November.